Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[bird]

 

Hey, I want Chargois to make it. But he isn't going to be sent down for giggles, it'll be in merit.

 

Yes, and the same would apply for all unsettled roster spots.

 

I agree, "youth movement" is a fan's simplistic term, not the strategy. I don't think I've heard anyone connected with the team use the words "youth movement". The strategy has always been to get better, not younger, but obviously the improvement has to come primarily from home-grown talent.

 

The argument is often presented that X player should get the spot because "we" need to see what "we" have in that player. I think "we" lose sight of the fact that the team has a much much better idea of what X player has and what X player still needs to work on. While it's perfectly sensible to want the younger prospects to replace the players we ran up there previously, it's not a good idea in all cases. I completely disagree with the idea that veterans are exempt from demonstrating merit. These prospects get the benefit of fan's wishful thinking at times. Maybe they don't merit the roster spot as clearly as we might think.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I completely disagree with the idea that veterans are exempt from demonstrating merit.

You may or may not be at odds with the new front office. Tell me more.

[Dr. Evil]

When are more cuts coming?

[Otto von Ballpark]

When are more cuts coming?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnSccAokV3c

[TheLeviathan]

 

Among other reasons is that they have minor league options.

If you start with the vet and he sucks or gets hurt, you can jettison him for the young guy. If the young guy sucks or gets hurt you have already cut loose a potential replacement.

There is a little more leeway with relievers because they have more in the minors. If Chargois performs well enough to be in the bigs, they'll take him north. The spot is right there for him. Take it!

I don't think Vogelsong makes it unless Mejia and Berrios both implode down the stretch. His roster spot would be by default.

 

We have plenty of evidence that your notion that young players can just "take it" by their performance is false as well.  To use your terms, that's more of a slogan than a real thing.

[Jham]

Buxton debuted at 21.  Berrios moved 2 levels last season.   Rosario and Danny Santana moved rapidly once they got close.  Not great results, granted.  Others have moved slower.  The prospects the organization values highly they move.

MLB tryouts give us nothing if a prospect isn't ready.  IE you still don't know what you have.  Were they unprepared or just not that good?  Alternatively, early success doesn't necessarily show you what you have.  Then you dedicate spots to Aaron Hicks and Chris Parm and DanSan.  

And you should have a pretty good idea what you have by the time you're calling guys up.  Do we gain that much insight into the future if we say, "yep, this guy has a great chance of reaching his ceiling as a bottom 10 starting catcher or 4th outfielder or 4th starter on a loosing team or 7th inning situational guy on a contender.  

In short, I am inclined to agree more with those who say the problem isn't an unwillingness to go young, it's that we don't have the guys to go young.  I've taken a lot of criticism for suggesting that a true rebuild involves trading at least 1 of Sano or Buxton in order to accumulate more than mere filler prospects.  I mean, how much does another Berrios even help us at this point?  I'm not even saying that we SHOULD do that, just that realistically, that's our only chance at getting multiple potential All Stars.  Obviously, Dozier couldn't get us close.

[drjim]

We have plenty of evidence that your notion that young players can just "take it" by their performance is false as well. To use your terms, that's more of a slogan than a real thing.

You sure about that?

 

Obviously a young guy is extremely unlikely to debut in the bigs on the opening day roster (especially a starting pitcher), but it has happened (for example Hicks). And young guys force their way in even when the plan was to keep them down (Liriano). I'm less concerned about more marginal prospects.

 

Teams create plans to not have young guys break camp, and for good reason. But they can be changed if circumstances dictate it.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You sure about that?

Obviously a young guy is extremely unlikely to debut in the bigs on the opening day roster (especially a starting pitcher), but it has happened (for example Hicks). And young guys force their way in even when the plan was to keep them down (Liriano). I'm less concerned about more marginal prospects.

Teams create plans to not have young guys break camp, and for good reason. But they can be changed if circumstances dictate it.

 

They "can" do lots of things.  Did Kris Bryant not "take it!" a couple years ago?

 

Sorry man, but you can't be critical of what Mike said as a slogan and then turn around and offer "take it!" with a straight face.  We both know full well there is a lot that goes into those decisions. 

[drjim]

They "can" do lots of things. Did Kris Bryant not "take it!" a couple years ago?

 

Sorry man, but you can't be critical of what Mike said as a slogan and then turn around and offer "take it!" with a straight face. We both know full well there is a lot that goes into those decisions.

Don't you want a better counter than a universally acknowledged service time manipulation?

 

Mike just has unrealistic expectations of what a youth movement looks like in reality.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Don't you want a better counter than a universally acknowledged service time manipulation?

Mike just has unrealistic expectations of what a youth movement looks like in reality.

 

I picked an easy, undeniable bit of evidence that "take it!" is a bunch of BS.  I tend to be a bit more mild in my cries for getting young players up to play.

 

But I'm not delusional.  And "take it!" is pretty delusional as anything other than a slogan too.

[bird]

 

You may or may not be at odds with the new front office. Tell me more.

 

I'll re-phrase what I said. When the team decides on one player over another, it's based on the merits. We as fans might try to define those merits to include only what we know and see. But the team knows and sees important things that we don't.

 

Has Breslow fixed his mechanics enough to merit his selection over O'Rourke? Do O'Rourke's fellow pitchers hate being around him when he heaves into their wastebasket in the bullpen? Does Breslow have an important mentoring role that merits his selection over Boshers? Maybe none of these things enter into the equation, but other things besides stats from last year or this spring certainly do, and we're not privy to much. I want the youngest guy to the best choice whenever possible, but I'm not going to be overly critical if that doesn't happen.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'll re-phrase what I said. When the team decides on one player over another, it's based on the merits. We as fans might try to define those merits to include only what we know and see. But the team knows and sees important things that we don't.

 

Has Breslow fixed his mechanics enough to merit his selection over O'Rourke? Do O'Rourke's fellow pitchers hate being around him when he heaves into their wastebasket in the bullpen? Does Breslow have an important mentoring role that merits his selection over Boshers? Maybe none of these things enter into the equation, but other things besides stats from last year or this spring certainly do, and we're not privy to much. I want the youngest guy to the best choice whenever possible, but I'm not going to be overly critical if that doesn't happen.

Agree. Mainly I'm trying to figure out what Vogelsong is doing to merit consideration. It can't be anything to do with how he has pitched the past few years or even this spring.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'll re-phrase what I said. When the team decides on one player over another, it's based on the merits. 

 

Teams use all sorts of reasons to decide their 25 man roster.  Service time, contracts, options, etc.

 

And not just the Twins, everybody does it.  Merit alone (in meaningless games by the way) is simply false.

[nicksaviking]

 

Among other reasons is that they have minor league options.

If you start with the vet and he sucks or gets hurt, you can jettison him for the young guy. If the young guy sucks or gets hurt you have already cut loose a potential replacement.

There is a little more leeway with relievers because they have more in the minors. If Chargois performs well enough to be in the bigs, they'll take him north. The spot is right there for him. Take it!

I don't think Vogelsong makes it unless Mejia and Berrios both implode down the stretch. His roster spot would be by default.

 

Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves incorrectly but this doesn't sound like the current scenario. To me it sounds like they want the vets to step up and take the jobs, not the other way around.

 

And at this point the vets aren't. These kids don't have to be finished products, I'd rather watch them and their rough edges than faded vets on their last stop.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Among other reasons is that they have minor league options.

If you start with the vet and he sucks or gets hurt, you can jettison him for the young guy. If the young guy sucks or gets hurt you have already cut loose a potential replacement.
 

 

I think everyone is focusing on the wrong part of your statement. This right here is the big reason why teams plan on starting the year with vets, and for the most part, I'm fine with that.

 

Now that said, my issue is that a guy like Vogelsong is the potential replacement that can be had at any time.  A guy like Santiago fits that bill a bit more, albeit at a rather expensive price.  I had no problems walking into the season with May as the 5th starter. He deserved it, didn't get a shot last season, and has upside.  Now that he's gone, they need to either get a real vet replacement or be willing to ride the Mejia/Berrios/Duffey shuttle. I'm not against that personally, especially when you have a guy like Vogelsong in the minors or a guy like Wheeler that can be added to the 40 man as well.  The real concern is depth.  If two other starters go down at the same time, you're running all three out there, and the odds of that looking good are rather low.  Then again, I doubt it would be any worse the Vogelsong. The only real loss is that these pitchers are likely working on things in AAA that they cannot work on in MLB due to the obvious win now concerns.

[drjim]

Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves incorrectly but this doesn't sound like the current scenario. To me it sounds like they want the vets to step up and take the jobs, not the other way around.

 

And at this point the vets aren't. These kids don't have to be finished products, I'd rather watch them and their rough edges than faded vets on their last stop.

I think you are reading them wrong.

 

Plan A was the 4 vets and May, with Duffey/Mejia/Berrios battling for a potential spot and AAA depth.

 

Vogelsong is there as insurance for a lot of injuries and/or none of the young guys are ready. Ad of now, looks like Mejia will win the spot.

 

Vogelsong may make it as long man if they don't want to keep Haley.

[drjim]

I picked an easy, undeniable bit of evidence that "take it!" is a bunch of BS. I tend to be a bit more mild in my cries for getting young players up to play.

 

But I'm not delusional. And "take it!" is pretty delusional as anything other than a slogan too.

"Take it" is more an exhortation for Chargois specifically. The spot is right there for him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's why the opinion of some of the ignorant national writers is worthless and should not be heard:  They cannot even get their facts straight.  I stopped reading after the PEDs and I'd take whatever Sarris says about other subjects he does not apparently know about, with a huge grain of salt.

 

good point, forgetting why one of thousands of minor leaguers was suspended, in a chat where you are answering questions quickly, that's a good reason to dismiss what the person said totally and forever. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I think you are reading them wrong.

Plan A was the 4 vets and May, with Duffey/Mejia/Berrios battling for a potential spot and AAA depth.

Vogelsong is there as insurance for a lot of injuries and/or none of the young guys are ready. Ad of now, looks like Mejia will win the spot.

Vogelsong may make it as long man if they don't want to keep Haley.

 

Then I'm not reading the tea leaves wrong. If the team really, really wanted the young guys to step up and take the jobs than Plan A, even if overly optimistic, should have been Santana, Gibson, May, Berrios and Mejia with Hughes, Santiago and Vogelsong as the insurance if the youngsters couldn't cut it.

 

In nearly every case it truly appears that the team wants the vets to step up and take the jobs. The kids are there for the spots the vets can't cover. At least when it comes to the pitching staff.

[drjim]

The problem with the national writers is that anyone here who regularly reads or posts is going to know more about the Twins than the narrative and cliches those writers offer up.

 

However, they almost certainly havr more knowledge of the other 29 teams and provide invaluable (to me, at least) context of how the Twins and their players/farm system/overall organization fit in the broader context of mlb.

 

Probably best not to be too caught up in small detail errors, and take it for what it is.

[drjim]

Then I'm not reading the tea leaves wrong. If the team really, really wanted the young guys to step up and take the jobs than Plan A, even if overly optimistic, should have been Santana, Gibson, May, Berrios and Mejia with Hughes, Santiago and Vogelsong as the insurance if the youngsters couldn't cut it.

 

In nearly every case it truly appears that the team wants the vets to step up and take the jobs. The kids are there for the spots the vets can't cover. At least when it comes to the pitching staff.

But there is also a difference between what they want overall in the season and what is desirable on opening day with starting pitching depth.

 

Going into the season with May, Berrios and Mejia as plan a for opening day rotation is setting up for a catastrophe.

[bird]

 

Teams use all sorts of reasons to decide their 25 man roster.  Service time, contracts, options, etc.

 

And not just the Twins, everybody does it.  Merit alone (in meaningless games by the way) is simply false.

 

 

This solidifies my point, which is what you call merit is very different than what the team calls merit. We don't know their reasons oftentimes. Is the player inattentive to coaching, obnoxious to be around and therefore a clubhouse issue, late to the park? Is a player a positive influence on other players? My point is, we assume a lot. We're quick to decide the decision is based on service time or options because we know about those things, when other important factors might be the larger consideration. Those things aren't always baseball-related, but even when they are they can be invisible to us. So I agree with you. Your version of merit alone (based mainly on meaningless games by the way) is simply false.

[drjim]

Twins could plan on Mejia, Berrios, May in rotation if they had 3-4 other guys at AAA that were nearly ready to step in or had some mlb experience. But they (like basically every organization) don't have that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

But there is also a difference between what they want overall in the season and what is desirable on opening day with starting pitching depth.

Going into the season with May, Berrios and Mejia as plan a for opening day rotation is setting up for a catastrophe.

 

how about one of them being the plan?

 

And, one of them or Duffey or Haley being the 2nd choice?

 

NO ONE is saying get rid of all the veterans.

 

I take great umbrage to people saying deciding to go young is a slogan, not a strategy.

 

Here is how the STRATEGY could be different:

 

1. Don't sign Gimenez, because you want to give Murphy one more chance, and have Garver in AAA to take over. If you do sign a guy like that, make it a guy where the primary plan is to have him in AAA as insurance. That's a plan. A strategy. Not a slogan.

 

2. Don't sign another veteran SP, especially one who is old and hasn't been good for 4 years. Plan to have one of May, Berrios, Meija, Duffey, or Haley as your 5th starter, with the next guy on the list as plan B. That's a plan. A strategy. Not a slogan. Maybe even pencil Hughes in as a starter, but not pen, in case his velocity is off. Heck, maybe decide to move him to the bullpen, and start a young guy. If the young guy fails, you can move Hughes back to the rotation if needed, especially for a spot start or two.

 

3. Don't sign 4 veteran RPs, decide you'll have Chargois on the roster based on what you've seen so far. Decide Haley is in the bullpen. Give every young guy that you think is close a real shot at making the roster. 

 

It's about the opportunity you create, or your plans you set. NONE of that is a slogan, it is all an actual strategy to put youth first. 

 

I keep reading "what if they fail"? As many of you have posted, if the youth fail that they've drafted, signed, or traded for, it won't matter who they sign, they need the youth to be good if they are  going to be good.

 

So please, don't condescend to me about youth being a slogan and not a strategy. We've seen plenty of teams go young over the years. We've even seen the Twins do it the last time they built their core.

[bird]

 

But there is also a difference between what they want overall in the season and what is desirable on opening day with starting pitching depth.

Going into the season with May, Berrios and Mejia as plan a for opening day rotation is setting up for a catastrophe.

 

 

If we read Thad's Q&A with the MLB writer, two things are clear to me. One, they think more highly of Hughes than most of the commenters here, and two, they anticipate bringing a few prospects up over the course of the season. Those are two things about which Thad sounded most enthusiastic. We'll see whether their judgement is sound I guess, especially regarding Santiago over Mejia and Berrios to start the season if that happens. 

[drjim]

how about one of them being the plan?

 

And, one of them or Duffey or Haley being the 2nd choice?

 

NO ONE is saying get rid of all the veterans.

 

I take great umbrage to people saying deciding to go young is a slogan, not a strategy.

 

Here is how the STRATEGY could be different:

 

1. Don't sign Gimenez, because you want to give Murphy one more chance, and have Garver in AAA to take over. If you do sign a guy like that, make it a guy where the primary plan is to have him in AAA as insurance. That's a plan. A strategy. Not a slogan.

 

2. Don't sign another veteran SP, especially one who is old and hasn't been good for 4 years. Plan to have one of May, Berrios, Meija, Duffey, or Haley as your 5th starter, with the next guy on the list as plan B. That's a plan. A strategy. Not a slogan. Maybe even pencil Hughes in as a starter, but not pen, in case his velocity is off. Heck, maybe decide to move him to the bullpen, and start a young guy. If the young guy fails, you can move Hughes back to the rotation if needed, especially for a spot start or two.

 

3. Don't sign 4 veteran RPs, decide you'll have Chargois on the roster based on what you've seen so far. Decide Haley is in the bullpen. Give every young guy that you think is close a real shot at making the roster.

 

It's about the opportunity you create, or your plans you set. NONE of that is a slogan, it is all an actual strategy to put youth first.

 

I keep reading "what if they fail"? As many of you have posted, if the youth fail that they've drafted, signed, or traded for, it won't matter who they sign, they need the youth to be good if they are going to be good.

 

So please, don't condescend to me about youth being a slogan and not a strategy. We've seen plenty of teams go young over the years. We've even seen the Twins do it the last time they built their core.

You really want Duffey and Haley as the 7th starter? And in the bigger picture anyways, your #2 point is basically exactly what the Twins did. Hughes can absolutely lose his spot if he's terrible, but getting rocked while working on a changeup likely isn't a demerit. Vogelsong is a last resort milb depth signing. Prudent teams have those options in the spring. THAT bothers you?

 

You really are that attached to Murphy?

 

You really want to pen guys in the bullpen with either a handful of games or no games?

 

And why would Berrios or Mejia be the plan entering spring? Mejia has a grand total of one mlb relief appearance and Berrios was terrible. You're that confident they can make 30 starts from day 1?

 

I'll withdrawal slogan, this would be a hope and a prayer to start the season. Or, if you will, a plan for failure.

 

And finally, you say "plenty of teams" have done this. How much different do they look than what the Twins are doing? Outside of Houston, I would strongly suggest they do it very similarily. Break in young guys with veteran placeholders, have some veteran depth in the rotation.

 

Houston was an exception, but they also truly went to the studs and had 4 100+ losing seasons for their efforts. It's still not clear, despite being good now, if they'll regain tv money ans attendance.

[drjim]

If we read Thad's Q&A with the MLB writer, two things are clear to me. One, they think more highly of Hughes than most of the commenters here, and two, they anticipate bringing a few prospects up over the course of the season. Those are two things about which Thad sounded most enthusiastic. We'll see whether their judgement is sound I guess, especially regarding Santiago over Mejia and Berrios to start the season if that happens.

Not surprised on Hughes at all. And good.

 

And of course they'll bring prospects up as the season goes along. The opening day roster is quite overrated.

[Mike Sixel]

I didn't say it was a good or bad plan/strategy, I said it was a strategy not a slogan.

 

and yes, I truly want Berrios or Meija to be plan B if May is hurt, or even Duffey to start the year until one of those two is ready. I really want that more than a 40 yo pitcher that hasn't been good for at least 4 years. Yes.

 

I'm not confident one way or the other on either of them, but they are the future. Vogelesgang is neither the present nor the future, I'm confident of that.

 

Yes, I really want 1-3 young guys in the bullpen from the minors. They throw harder than the guys they brought in. They might be part of the future. I want Chargois to be guaranteed a spot on the roster, based on what he did last year, and his potential. 100% yes, I want that. It might not work, but that's the route I would go.

[nicksaviking]

 

But there is also a difference between what they want overall in the season and what is desirable on opening day with starting pitching depth.

Going into the season with May, Berrios and Mejia as plan a for opening day rotation is setting up for a catastrophe.

 

Why? How is having Hughes, Santiago and/or Vogelsong in the pen ready to be recalled back to the rotation upon need more of a catastrophe than having the aged vets in the rotation and actually having to fly the young guys in from AAA when the vets fart and falter?

[drjim]

I didn't say it was a good or bad plan/strategy, I said it was a strategy not a slogan.

 

and yes, I truly want Berrios or Meija to be plan B if May is hurt, or even Duffey to start the year until one of those two is ready. I really want that more than a 40 yo pitcher that hasn't been good for at least 4 years. Yes.

 

I'm not confident one way or the other on either of them, but they are the future. Vogelesgang is neither the present nor the future, I'm confident of that.

 

Yes, I really want 1-3 young guys in the bullpen from the minors. They throw harder than the guys they brought in. They might be part of the future. I want Chargois to be guaranteed a spot on the roster, based on what he did last year, and his potential. 100% yes, I want that. It might not work, but that's the route I would go.

You are likely to get your desire in the rotation. Unless Berrios, Mejia and Duffey all implode down the stretch Vogelsong is not making the team (except perhaps as a long man over Haley).

 

I think the front office wants the young relievers to make it too. Just might take a couple more months than originally hoped.