Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Thrylos]

 

except none of those guys you listed for the Twins sat top 2 for 3 years straight years, and I'm not sure any of them have to prove anything, at least not nationally.

 

As far as prospect ranks go, the players have to prove nothing.  The ones who do the rankings have to prove that they did a decent job. 

Buxton did not rank himself number 1.  Others did, and they are the ones who need to prove themselves "correct". 

[Thrylos]

From the BA top 100 chat:

 

Tiny Lister (Compton, CA): Who was the guy that didn't make the top 100 consensus, but that you fought the hardest for inclusion?

Matt Eddy: Some of my picks to click who didn’t make the Top 100 were Brock Stewart (Dodgers) and Scott Kingery and Roman Quinn (Phillies). Some others with carrying tools who deserve mention: Padres 2B Luis Urias (hit), Reds OF Aristides Aquino (power), Cardinals OF Magneuris Sierra (speed, defense), Twins RHP Fernando Rodney (power stuff, plus control) and potential power-speed outfielders Desmond Lindsay (Mets) and Jesus Sanchez (Rays).
 

That "Fernando Rodney" has to be a Freudian slip describing Fernando Romero.

[Vanimal46]

EbenezerBatflip
12:29 Who is the second best team in the AL Central? Seems like after CLE, there is a giant dropoff and lots of question marks. Will anyone in the ALC give CLE any kind of challenge?

 

Dave Cameron
12:29 I'll take DET out of the next group.

[Mike Sixel]

Gibson is first on the list.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-could-drop-their-arm-slot-for-more-success/

[Mike Sixel]

MB
2:39 Speaking of Sano - do you believe some of his struggles can be attributed to him being "too selective" at the plate ?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:39 No, I don't think he's in the Hermida Zone.

[Mike Sixel]

ouch:

 

:42
baby bull: Which AL Central 3B has best year, Jose Ramirez, Miguel Sano, Moustakas?

 

9:42
Paul Swydan: I hope it’s Sano, but I’ll say Ramirez.

[Mike Sixel]

1:03
Sam: Zips has Miguel Sano projected for .235/.324/.471 with 26 HR’s. I must be greatly overrating Sano, because I think this seems very low for him. Do you forsee a Sano breakout, or are the Zips about right in your eyes?

 

1:03
Travis Sawchik: I foresee 35 HRs, with health, and .820ish OPS

[Mike Sixel]

Hank
12:15 Which Twins player do you believe will have a better 2017: Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton?

 

Eno Sarris
12:15 Sano. Although what's the judging factor. By wRC+, easily Sano, so easily. By WAR, dunno, Buxton will be a good defender.

 

Husk
12:17 If I'm looking to target a few teams that will be the first to switch closers this year, am I right to target TEX and MIN?

 

Eno Sarris
12:20 Minny for sure, but Dyson has a really high floor with that Britton-esque sinker. I think Rockies could be in flux, depending on Holland's velo when he comes back, Nationals obviously, Athletics, Marlins maybe, Brewers. Dbacks, Phils, Angels. Last two probably first on the list with Minny.

[Mike Sixel]

baby bull
12:26 What will Miguel Sano's career low k% be (excluding 2014's 0%)?

 

Eno Sarris
12:26 28% in peak year.

[Mike Sixel]

Joe
12:46 Have we gone overboard in the pitch frame statistic? I mean Jason Castro has a $24 million deal from MIN, but Wieters can't get a sniff of a contract? I understand he might have been looking for a lot of money initially, but this is getting out of hand. All because he's considered a bad pitch framer? There is no comparison between him and Castro yet pitch framing is winning the day? Makes no sense.

 

Eno Sarris
12:46 Think about how many pitches a catcher frames vs how many he gets to swing at.

[Willihammer]

 

Gibson is first on the list.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-could-drop-their-arm-slot-for-more-success/

You can really see the high release point on Wetmore's story today.

http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/02/wetmores-5-thoughts-twins-position-battles-watch-spring-training/

I wonder who could possibly be coaching him to throw from such a high arm slot?

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Eno Sarris

12:46 Think about how many pitches a catcher frames vs how many he gets to swing at.

Yeah...it's still cheating, though. 

[Mike Sixel]

Joe
1:15 Castro is an auto out in the lineup though. And there's no evidence that his pitch framing ability will translate to more than a win or two as long as MIN has marginal pitching talent. So that's worth $24 million? That makes zero sense. I could understand if he could get the bat on the ball occasionally, but he's a consistent .210 hitter. Pitch framing is a skill, but it can't be your only skill.

 

Eno Sarris
1:16 Batting average? Castro is 6% worse than league average for his career, which is above-average with the stick for a catcher. Last three years he's been about average for a catcher with the stick.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, I totally get the poster's point in that question but Castro isn't a great example. He's not terrible with the stick, just average or slightly below average.

 

And it's not like $24m is a king's ransom in 2017.

 

I mean, if you pay all 25 players on your roster $8m a season, that's only a $200m payroll.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think people realize how bad hitting is for catchers in baseball right now.  It's a huge part of what made Mauer so damn valuable, even if he wasn't slugging like a mad man.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think people realize how bad hitting is for catchers in baseball right now.  It's a huge part of what made Mauer so damn valuable, even if he wasn't slugging like a mad man.

 

I don't think people realize how low BA is for the entire pool of MLB hitters right now.....but yes, catcher hitting is pretty bad right now. 

[nicksaviking]

Over the last three years Castro still took a 3rd of his PA against lefties. He is just so, so bad against them. Hopefully Garver can somehow find his way to the MLB team allowing Castro to be a five-games-a-week catcher or a strict platoon. Castro is just fine against righties.

[Riverbrian]

 

Joe
1:15 Castro is an auto out in the lineup though. And there's no evidence that his pitch framing ability will translate to more than a win or two as long as MIN has marginal pitching talent. So that's worth $24 million? That makes zero sense. I could understand if he could get the bat on the ball occasionally, but he's a consistent .210 hitter. Pitch framing is a skill, but it can't be your only skill.

 

Eno Sarris
1:16 Batting average? Castro is 6% worse than league average for his career, which is above-average with the stick for a catcher. Last three years he's been about average for a catcher with the stick.

 

I hope that isn't Joe Mauer asking that question!!! 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Over the last three years Castro still took a 3rd of his PA against lefties. He is just so, so bad against them. Hopefully Garver can somehow find his way to the MLB team allowing Castro to be a five-games-a-week catcher or a strict platoon. Castro is just fine against righties.

John Ryan Murphy may be able to fill that role as well. His career OPS against lefties is .691, or about 130 points higher than his OPS against righties.

[Guest]

"unfortunately it all came crashing down with a major-league worst 59-103 record, which was the worst in Minnesota Twins history (based on W-L%)."

By what metric are they suggesting it might NOT have been the worst in Twins' History?

Well, let's see. There was the year Calvin got good and liquored up and gave an asinine speech to the Waseca Lions Club. Now that was a horrible season, regardless of record. And then there was the day Kirby woke up blind in one eye, which pretty much made the whole year a big downer. But other than those two, yes, last year may have been the pits for this franchise.

[Mike Sixel]

Can Jose Berrios be a 2-3 starter or is his fastball too flat as some have asserted?

 

KLAW:

As *I* have asserted, you mean. I don't think he's ever going to be a 2.

[Mike Sixel]

Wager No. 2
Contestant A: Cameron
Metric: Brian Dozier’s WAR minus Logan Forsythe’s WAR.
Over/Under: 0.5
Contestant B: Cistulli
Chooses: Over

[Mike Sixel]

Jaff
9:15 If you could fix a super hyped prospect that failed at the major leagues who would it be? What would you fix?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:16 I'd fix Byron Buxton's ability to make contact. If Buxton could show he could hit the ball consistently, it's so easy to see him as another CF superstar
It's weird that it's 2017 and I'm more excited about Keon Broxton

[Taildragger8791]

 

Can Jose Berrios be a 2-3 starter or is his fastball too flat as some have asserted?

 

KLAW:

As *I* have asserted, you mean. I don't think he's ever going to be a 2.

 

Apparently KLAW really wants that credit for predicting Berrios' eventual failure.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Apparently KLAW really wants that credit for predicting Berrios' eventual failure.

 

I did find that odd....but he is/was by far the low guy on him, from what I can tell.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

Apparently KLAW really wants that credit for predicting Berrios' eventual failure.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think it's that odd. If anything, I believe Law was trying to point out that he's the low man on Berrios.

[Mike Sixel]

Noah
10:05 Do you think Miguel Sano can stick at 3B?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:05 For a few years

[Mike Sixel]

Noah
10:27 Are you surprised by the Twins lack of moves this offseason, considering the regime change? Is this a result of Falvey and Levine not knowing what they have in terms of assets?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:28 I think they would've liked to move Dozier, but outside of that, there are already a lot of internal pieces that need some more time. The team wasn't in position to shake things up too much. I was surprised by the Park move, but I do get it

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel
10:50 Will I ever be able to go golfing again, or does the rain never stop here? As for the Twins, odds the SP is not one of the five worst staffs this year?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:50 July through the middle of September are amazing!
Except lately Augusts have been too hot
sorry
10:51 I think the Twins can make it into the 20 - 25 range. Having a pitch-framer, at last, is going to help them
Granted, that would be value from the catcher, not the pitching staff, but we'll still be talking better K's and fewer walks