Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Says The Twins Will Suck Less

[Parker Hageman]

Baseball Prospectus released their annual PECOTA projections and once again, the Minnesota Twins are not supposed to do so hot. According to the numbers, the Twins are expected to finish near the bottom of the division with a 79-83 record – 3 games ahead of the reigning World Series champion Kansas City Royals. 

 

The bad news is that the 79-win projection is on par with a vast majority of other systems including USA Today's 80-win projection (which they consider "semi-scientific") but the good news is that the 79-win total represents a nine game swing in the win column over last year’s 70-win projection. As you may recall the Twins went on to outperform their 2015 expectation by 13 game but the Royals obliterated the system, winning 95 games while PECOTA suggested a 72-win total in 2015. 

 

 

[Thrylos]

PECOTA is pretty good, but it does tend to compress the results, so you see a bit less deviation and fewer 90 win and 90 loss teams as a result.  For example in 2015 there were 7 90 game winners and 7 90 game losers.    They are predicting 5 and 3, which really is not reasonable.  There will likely be more than 3 between NL East and NL Central....

 

Hard to tell how many they will win at this point.  Got to see them play in Spring Training...

[Parker Hageman]

Got to see them play in Spring Training...

 

 

Completely agree with the PECOTA take. As far as spring training goes, the Twins were pretty bad last year. I think we gotta see them play 162.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Baseball Prospectus released their annual PECOTA projections and once again, the Minnesota Twins are not supposed to do so hot. According to the numbers, the Twins are expected to finish near the bottom of the division with a 79-83 record – 3 games ahead of the reigning World Series champion Kansas City Royals. 

 

The bad news is that the 79-win projection is on par with a vast majority of other systems including USA Today's 80-win projection (which they consider "semi-scientific") but the good news is that the 79-win total represents a nine game swing in the win column over last year’s 70-win projection. As you may recall the Twins went on to outperform their 2015 expectation by 13 game but the Royals obliterated the system, winning 95 games while PECOTA suggested a 72-win total in 2015. 

I think last year around this time we added up a bunch of PECOTA predictions from several years and found that they were off by an average of 6 games per team.  

[Han Joelo]

Pecota, pecata.  Let's call the whole thing off.

[DJL44]

Math error in the poll. The top is "less than 90" and the bottom is "greater than 70". Not sure how "greater than 70" isn't destroying the other options as it is the only option for 90+ wins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think last year around this time we added up a bunch of PECOTA predictions from several years and found that they were off by an average of 6 games per team.  

But if you add up all the projected team records, it exactly matches the league's actual winning percentage of .500.

[Craig Arko]

 

But if you add up all the projected team records, it exactly matches the league's actual winning percentage of .500.

This should be carved in stone.

[USAFChief]

 

But if you add up all the projected team records, it exactly matches the league's actual winning percentage of .500.

Dude, the American League did not have a .500 winning percentage last year.

 

Nor the National League, for that matter.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Math error in the poll. The top is "less than 90" and the bottom is "greater than 70". Not sure how "greater than 70" isn't destroying the other options as it is the only option for 90+ wins.

 

Nerd. 

 

(and fixed.)

[twinsnorth49]

So you're saying there's a chance?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dude, the American League did not have a .500 winning percentage last year.

 

Nor the National League, for that matter.

The Major League?

[rghrbek]

Per Gleeman tweet:

 

"Twins moved to Target Field in 2010. Since then they've won 442 games and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA has projected them to win 441 games."

 

Not bad

[Thrylos]

 

Completely agree with the PECOTA take. As far as spring training goes, the Twins were pretty bad last year. I think we gotta see them play 162.

 

I don't mean their ST record. 

 

I just want to see them before I make a projection of wins.  Even if they suck, if they have 2-3 pretty impressive arms in their bullpen not named Perkins and Jepsen, if Nolasco hits his spots, if Buxton hits or lets go breaking stuff, if Sano does not step on his toes, if Arcia and (the forgotten man) Vargas hit bombs, and, more importantly, if the team looks like a team and looks like a team that has fun playing ball, like it did last year, it will be a different story.

[gunnarthor]

 

Per Gleeman tweet:

 

"Twins moved to Target Field in 2010. Since then they've won 442 games and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA has projected them to win 441 games."

 

Not bad

Yeah, over a few years, it'll be ok.  But in any one year, it's more likely to be 6 games off.  That's why Gleeman did the 6 seasons instead of the 6 individual seasons.  Gleeman is using the fact that PECOTA has been wrong in both directions to obscure the fact of how wrong it usually has been.    He's trying to defend PECOTA.

 

But their projections were off, on average, 10 games for the Twins (and if you look at all teams, it's around 6).  

 

2010 - projected 82 wins - off by 12

2011 - projected 83 wins - off by 20

2012 - projected 71 wins - off by 5

2013 - projected 66 wins - perfect

2014 - projected 71 wins - off by 1

2015 - projected 82 wins - off by 12

 

So they were pretty good at saying the Twins would suck in 2013 and 2014 (big gamble there), were in the ball park in 2012 and no where close in 2010, 2011 and 2015.  

[gunnarthor]

PECOTA isn't that good at projecting final placement within the division either, by the way.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I don't mean their ST record. 

 

I just want to see them before I make a projection of wins.  Even if they suck, if they have 2-3 pretty impressive arms in their bullpen not named Perkins and Jepsen, if Nolasco hits his spots, if Buxton hits or lets go breaking stuff, if Sano does not step on his toes, if Arcia and (the forgotten man) Vargas hit bombs, and, more importantly, if the team looks like a team and looks like a team that has fun playing ball, like it did last year, it will be a different story.

You forgot to talk about defense...if OF includes Sano or Arcia on a regular basis at the start of the season...expect lots of doubles leading to extra runs and more losses no matter who is pitching.

[Craig Arko]

Well, sucking less is preferable to sucking more, right?

[Mike Sixel]

It's almost like people intentionally ignore that PECOTA and everyone else says this is the most likely set of outcomes, not a prediction of outcomes......

 

For example, the authors acknowledge more teams will win more than 90 than they project, but that you can't project with much certainty which ones those will be.

 

And, what's a better projection system. Saying it isn't a good projector should be relative to other methods of projecting. 

 

That said......it is good harbinger that projection systems like them more.

 

edit: I voted for 76-80, but the next grouping up would not surprise me at all. I'd say those are almost equally likely to be the outcomes. Picking one of those does not mean you are sure it will be that range, just that it is most likely of the ranges. It is probably more likely it is not that range, since there are many more outcomes outside it than in it.

[gunnarthor]

 

It's almost like people intentionally ignore that PECOTA and everyone else says this is the most likely set of outcomes, not a prediction of outcomes......

 

For example, the authors acknowledge more teams will win more than 90 than they project, but that you can't project with much certainty which ones those will be.

 

And, what's a better projection system. Saying it isn't a good projector should be relative to other methods of projecting. 

 

That said......it is good harbinger that projection systems like them more.

But even on their most likely set of outcomes, they're pretty bad.  You might be able to put together a better 1-5 in the AL Central (or any other division you paid attention to) than PECOTA has the last five years.  

 

Fans are putting way too much faith into PECOTA (and frankly, any projection system) and acting as if it means a team's FO is doing smart or dumb things.  (Not just at TD).  Projection systems are so inherently flawed as that their relevance should be called into question.  And when someone like Gleeman tries to make PECOTA seem accurate, when he clearly knows better, well, that just pisses me off.

[bird]

One of my favorite things is when someone dutifully reminds me that PECOTA is simply a projection. It is not a prediction.

 

To which I automatically respond, "WTF?"

[Dr. Evil]

Oh no!! We suck again???

[zenser]

So I guess I am way off, I was thinking they would win 162.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So I guess I am way off, I was thinking they would win 162.

No, "way off" would be predicting they win 163.

[Riverbrian]

I think our Twins will be a better team in 2016 and nobody will notice.

 

The American League is loaded. The A's are the only potential cupcake. I think it's quite possible that the best record in the AL is under 90 wins because running away with it and hiding will be near impossible because of the competition.

 

Meanwhile the National League has all the cupcakes. Braves, Phillies, Marlins(Maybe) Brewers, Reds, Rockies and Padres.

 

It's gonna be intense in the A.L. This year. I don't know if the Twins have done enough to keep up.

 

I can't wait to find out... Go Twins!!!

[Brock Beauchamp]

But even on their most likely set of outcomes, they're pretty bad. You might be able to put together a better 1-5 in the AL Central (or any other division you paid attention to) than PECOTA has the last five years.

 

Fans are putting way too much faith into PECOTA (and frankly, any projection system) and acting as if it means a team's FO is doing smart or dumb things. (Not just at TD). Projection systems are so inherently flawed as that their relevance should be called into question. And when someone like Gleeman tries to make PECOTA seem accurate, when he clearly knows better, well, that just pisses me off.

God, yes, this. Projection systems seem to often chase their own tail. Young teams are undervalued because the youngsters can't be accurately projected. Old teams are overvalued because a projection can't predict a star player falling on his face. In my casual observations, there seems to be a one year drag on projections for pretty obvious reasons.

 

I don't know how many games the Twins will win but I'd take the over on 79 and wouldn't think twice about it.

[Monkeypaws]

I'd trust Vegas odds as much as this.

 

I also saw Bill James has the Twins last in the division this season.

 

Fools, all!

[Shaitan]

Better start tanking.

[Mike Sixel]

 

But even on their most likely set of outcomes, they're pretty bad.  You might be able to put together a better 1-5 in the AL Central (or any other division you paid attention to) than PECOTA has the last five years.  

 

Fans are putting way too much faith into PECOTA (and frankly, any projection system) and acting as if it means a team's FO is doing smart or dumb things.  (Not just at TD).  Projection systems are so inherently flawed as that their relevance should be called into question.  And when someone like Gleeman tries to make PECOTA seem accurate, when he clearly knows better, well, that just pisses me off.

 

Who is putting any "faith" in these? And, why do you care if Gleeman or anyone else likes the system?

 

If it is so easy, let's see your team by team predictions for each of the next 5 years (as in, do it each year for the next 5 years), and see how you do compared to Pecota.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think our Twins will be a better team in 2016 and nobody will notice.
 

The American League is loaded. The A's are the only potential cupcake. I think it's quite possible that the best record in the AL is under 90 wins because running away with it and hiding will be near impossible because of the competition.

 

Meanwhile the National League has all the cupcakes. Braves, Phillies, Marlins(Maybe) Brewers, Reds, Rockies and Padres.

 

It's gonna be intense in the A.L. This year. I don't know if the Twins have done enough to keep up.

I can't wait to find out... Go Twins!!!

 

I also think the Twins will be a better team in 2016.

 

That isn't to say that they will have a better record though. As you said, other AL teams look to have improved but also it will take a while before the Twins finally kick the dusty old farts to the curb in favor of the young guys with better physical talents.