Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Says The Twins Will Suck Less

[USAFChief]

 

Who is putting any "faith" in these? And, why do you care if Gleeman or anyone else likes the system?

 

If it is so easy, let's see your team by team predictions for each of the next 5 years (as in, do it each year for the next 5 years), and see how you do compared to Pecota.

You mean projections, amiright?  

[Craig Arko]

 

You mean projections, amiright?  

Projections?

 

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ProjectiveGeometry.html

[gunnarthor]

 

Who is putting any "faith" in these? And, why do you care if Gleeman or anyone else likes the system?

 

 

Apparently, I didn't respond or it got deleted.  I didn't think it was that bad.  Based on a bunch of these threads, I think one of us is reading Gleeman's tweet incorrectly and leave it at that.  

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't know how many games the Twins will win but I'd take the over on 79 and wouldn't think twice about it.

You, or anyone else care to wager on this? A 12 pack of craft beer of your choice + shipping and handling to the winner? I'll take the under at 80.5. 

[gunnarthor]

 

You, or anyone else care to wager on this? A 12 pack of craft beer of your choice + shipping and handling to the winner? I'll take the under at 80.5. 

This got interesting.  I assume you'll keep track of the bets.  I'll take the over.  

[tobi0040]

Bovoda and OddShark both seem to have the Twins 19th or 20th in the league in odds to win it all and win record.

 

Predicting win totals is difficult.  BA with RISP and record in 1 run games can vary quite a bit from year to year and are hard to predict.  You can see a 7-10 game swing, plus or minus between actual wins and Pythag for that reason.

 

Last year, the Cards won 100 games with a Pythag of 96, and a record of 32-23 in 1 run games.

 

The Blue Jays won 93 games (5th most), with a Pythag of 102 (the best), and a 15-28 record in 1 run games.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You, or anyone else care to wager on this? A 12 pack of craft beer of your choice + shipping and handling to the winner? I'll take the under at 80.5.

I don't bet on sports but we can place a gentleman's bet on it.

 

To be clear, I don't think the Twins will be way over .500 but I think they'll scratch their way into that territory. I personally have them at 81-83 wins.

[USAFChief]

 

Bovoda and OddShark both seem to have the Twins 19th or 20th in the league in odds to win it all and win record.

 

Predicting win totals is difficult.  BA with RISP and record in 1 run games can vary quite a bit from year to year and are hard to predict.  You can see a 7-10 game swing, plus or minus between actual wins and Pythag for that reason.

 

Last year, the Cards won 100 games with a Pythag of 96, and a record of 32-23 in 1 run games.

 

The Blue Jays won 93 games (5th most), with a Pythag of 102 (the best), and a 15-28 record in 1 run games.

Atlantis in Reno looks like the first casino to offer 2016 O/U's.  They have the Twins at 77.5.

 

We'll all get the opportunity to prove how smart we are in the 3rd annual TD O/U contest, coming soon.  Look for it in the "other baseball" forum.

 

 

[bird]

 

This got interesting.  I assume you'll keep track of the bets.  I'll take the over.  

 

I've been placing O/U bets on the Twins in Vegas for many years on behalf of my local parish. My record is unblemished. I have Jesus on MY team. PM me for my address so you can send the beer in advance if you so choose.

[bird]

 

I'd trust Vegas odds as much as this.

 

I also saw Bill James has the Twins last in the division this season.

 

Fools, all!

 

 

 

Pfft, Bill James Schmill Schmames. He's the Nickelback of baseball writers.

[Vanimal46]

 

I don't bet on sports but we can place a gentleman's bet on it.

To be clear, I don't think the Twins will be way over .500 but I think they'll scratch their way into that territory. I personally have them at 81-83 wins.

Yeah I get where your heads at, and I'm on the other side of .500, the 76-80 win window. We're not that far off from our predictions which will make my friendly wager with gunnarthor interesting. A $15 12 pack is an easy price to pay for 6 months of entertainment.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah I get where your heads at, and I'm on the other side of .500, the 76-80 win window. We're not that far off from our predictions which will make my friendly wager with gunnarthor interesting. A $15 12 pack is an easy price to pay for 6 months of entertainment.

We probably have close to the same projections but I tend to pad young teams with a few positive wins and knock old teams for a few negative wins.

 

All it takes is one of Buxton, Berrios, Arcia, etc. to break in the right direction and the Twins are plus 2-3 wins, which gets my projection right around .500. I think it's likely at least one of them will pleasantly surprise and that's not counting the potential gains from full seasons of Duffey, Sano, Rosario (though I think he'll falter), Park, etc.

 

In 2015, the Twins had a Pythag of 81-81 and a BaseRuns of 73-89. That's my baseline from which to work. Carry over the 2015 roster to this season and I think they're a bit better, maybe 4-5 wins better in BaseRuns (not a lot of regression to find outside of Rosario and Duffey... maybe Sano slips a bit but a full season of Miguel is still a net gain). Add in a few pleasant surprises from a solid farm and I think they're a few wins better than that, which brings them at or near .500.

 

But really, it's hard to project this team because there are so many question marks. I can see anyone projecting this team for 76 wins or 88 wins depending on perspective.

[DaveW]

I'd trust Vegas odds as much as this.

 

I also saw Bill James has the Twins last in the division this season.

 

Fools, all!

You should trust Vegas odds....Vegas is rarely wrong.

 

Twins over/under is 77.5 fwiw. That seems right.

[DaveW]

I don't bet on sports

Smartest thing said in this thread.