Plouffe and the Mid Market Payroll

[Rosterman]

 

My thought going into the offseason was that the Twins were going to look at Sano at third in winter ball and make their decision based on that.  I think they've made up their mind that he's not a third baseman. Not now, not ever.  So when Plouffe is gone, Sano won't be replacing him. Eventually, he probably moves to firstbase.  But he can handle RF for a few seasons.

Then WHO is on third base if Sano is anywhere but, Plouffe is gone, and I don't know is in the system?

 

I would like to think Sano could hold the position for a season or three, until Travis Blankenhorn, perhaps, develops into the third baseman of the future.

 

[big dog]

 

Stauffer lasted over 2 months, and it took an epically bad performance to get him released that quickly. Jordan Schafer too.  Similar for Jason Marquis back in 2012.  Not sure if that's a plus for the team.

 

And the weird thing about Boyer is, his 2015 performance was basically best-case scenario.  And ultimately, it didn't help us at all, either down the stretch in 2015 or going forward.  I don't like those kind of deals, even if the Twins are wise enough not to re-sign him.

 

Abad doesn't look much better.  He has one extra season of potential team control, but that's just as likely to be a negative as a positive.

Another way to say it is Stauffer had a few appearances in April, then went on the DL, then he had a week and was gone.  He didn't actually take up a roster spot for the full two months.

 

He also, while "epically bad" (not disagreeing there, by the way), eventually got picked up by the Mets, who also thought there might be something there.  This stuff just happens sometimes- teams try things, occasionally they work, often they don't, the key is moving on.  That's what the Twins did with these players.

 

I'm simply trying to provide some counterpoint to the overstatements about how Twins love vets and will always take the vet.  It's certainly true sometimes, but there are also cases where they cut the vets, don't resign them, or trade them to let Aaron Hicks show out unprepared he is.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Then WHO is on third base if Sano is anywhere but, Plouffe is gone, and I don't know is in the system?

 

 

Beats me.  They'll have some internal candidates who may or may not be ready who could push Escobar off of short to third.  Maybe they sign a stop gap FA or Plouffe accepts a 1 year qualifying offer.  But I don't think it'll be Sano. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

My thought going into the offseason was that the Twins were going to look at Sano at third in winter ball and make their decision based on that.  I think they've made up their mind that he's not a third baseman. Not now, not ever.  So when Plouffe is gone, Sano won't be replacing him. Eventually, he probably moves to firstbase.  But he can handle RF for a few seasons.

 

And I think this team has stuck with sub-par defenders at positions before to let them learn on the job.

 

It makes far more sense and is far more in line with this team's history that they deferred to the veteran and moved the kid.  This wasn't a defensive ability decision, this was a "we want to keep Plouffe and he's at third...so where do we put Sano?"

[old nurse]

 

I wonder how much offense Sano is going to have to provide to be a 6 WAR player at any position when you consider defense is taken into account.

Think Miquel Cabrerra type numbers

[howieramone2]

 

Yeah, and those kind of "Twins guys" weren't all that useful to begin with (or only very briefly useful to us).

 

I don't think Plouffe falls in that group yet, and the fact they haven't extended him yet is a very good sign.

Actually, Duensing, Burton, and Suzuki were useful for multiple years. Can you give the board a working definition for briefly useful?

[jimmer]

 

Actually, Duensing, Burton, and Suzuki were useful for multiple years. Can you give the board a working definition for briefly useful?

Suzuki had a half a season of being good, somewhat, offensively. 1.9 WAR over two season.  

[howieramone2]

 

With a rotation of Hughes, Santana, Milone, Nolasco, and Gibson (with Duffy/May in waiting) you think the Twins are a playoff team?

Of course! The only question is whether they will catch the Royal this year or 2017. Bob, they were in the hunt all last season. Do you really believe we waited for Sano and Buxton only to get worse.

[nicksaviking]

Yes, Plouffe isn't blocking Sano's bat.  The Twins get to have both now.  That's a good thing.

I kind of think Plouffe is a poor fit for the current team. On a good team he'd bat no higher than 7th but he'll likely bat 5th-6th due to seniority and lack of options. It wouldn't be a huge issue for some teams but his poor OPS as a vet in the middle of the order does not play well.

[howieramone2]

 

I kind of think Plouffe is a poor fit for the current team. On a good team he'd bat no higher than 7th but he'll likely bat 5th-6th due to seniority and lack of options. It wouldn't be a huge issue for some teams but his poor OPS as a vet in the middle of the order does not play well.

I think Plouffe is a great fit for the current team and last season he batted higher than 7th on a good team.

[Oxtung]

Plouffe is the definition of a league average hitter with a career wRC+ at 100, (100 is average) (92 in '13, 112 in '14, and 102 in '15), his value or perceived value comes from his defensive metrics which aren't stellar either. Trevor's UZR/150 at 3B for his career is -2.9 (0 is league average) (-8.5 in '13, 7.7 in '14, 1.7 in '15). Further breakdown of those defensive numbers shows a below average range but the balls that he does get to he fields well. So Scott Rolen he is not with the glove. Plouffe's WAR was 2.5 last year and projections have him about the same if not less than that in 2016.

 

With free agency looming next year for Plouffe, if the Twins want any sort of return they'll deal him by July (sooner the better for a return) or else he walks at season's end and you get nothing in return.

plouffe isn't a FA until after the 2017 season.

[Oxtung]

Another way to say it is Stauffer had a few appearances in April, then went on the DL, then he had a week and was gone. He didn't actually take up a roster spot for the full two months.

 

He also, while "epically bad" (not disagreeing there, by the way), eventually got picked up by the Mets, who also thought there might be something there. This stuff just happens sometimes- teams try things, occasionally they work, often they don't, the key is moving on. That's what the Twins did with these players.

 

I'm simply trying to provide some counterpoint to the overstatements about how Twins love vets and will always take the vet. It's certainly true sometimes, but there are also cases where they cut the vets, don't resign them, or trade them to let Aaron Hicks show out unprepared he is.

there are a few cases where the Twins moved veterans to make room for young guys but Stauffer isnt one of them. He was throwing 88 mph and was absolutely terrible in Spring training. Given that, the FO still decided to stick with him for many appearances instead of handing one of the young relievers a spot out of spring training.

[gunnarthor]

 

And I think this team has stuck with sub-par defenders at positions before to let them learn on the job.

 

It makes far more sense and is far more in line with this team's history that they deferred to the veteran and moved the kid.  This wasn't a defensive ability decision, this was a "we want to keep Plouffe and he's at third...so where do we put Sano?"

I think this narrative needs to end.  Plouffe is a good defensive third baseman by both the eye test and the metrics.  Concerns about Sano have been around for years.  It seems much more likely - and in line with the teams history - that they put Sano at a position he's more likely to handle.

[TheLeviathan]

I think this narrative needs to end.  Plouffe is a good defensive third baseman by both the eye test and the metrics.  Concerns about Sano have been around for years.  It seems much more likely - and in line with the teams history - that they put Sano at a position he's more likely to handle.

No one said a Plouffe wasn't fine. But Plouffe wasn't a good defender at the start. He was allowed to learn and improve at the position. They have made it abundantly clear Sano is athletic enough, so why not give him the chance just as Plouffe was given?

 

Deference to veterans. They've said from day one of the offseason that they won't move Plouffe and I believe them. Ryan didn't want to move Plouffe so they moved Sano. I think it had very little to do with Sano.

[big dog]

 

there are a few cases where the Twins moved veterans to make room for young guys but Stauffer isnt one of them. He was throwing 88 mph and was absolutely terrible in Spring training. Given that, the FO still decided to stick with him for many appearances instead of handing one of the young relievers a spot out of spring training.

I'm not sure I'd say 15 was many, but which of the young relievers was ready to go last year during spring training?  I remember being unhappy they hadn't gotten a better reliever over the winter, not thinking that Burdi was ready to go right out of the gate.  My unhappiness was Stauffer vs some other veteran reliever as a stopgap to when a young player stepped up.  It wasn't a case of there being rookies who were clearly ready who were being closed out.  That's what would definitely make me unhappy this year, though, if they signed a Stauffer- (or Duensing-)like veteran.

[old nurse]

 

there are a few cases where the Twins moved veterans to make room for young guys but Stauffer isnt one of them. He was throwing 88 mph and was absolutely terrible in Spring training. Given that, the FO still decided to stick with him for many appearances instead of handing one of the young relievers a spot out of spring training.

My memory is fuzzy as hell. Which young pitcher showed they really belonged last year after being called up?

Stauffer had 2 years prior of above average pitching in the bullpen before joining the Twins,  Since his release Stauffer continues to be able to sign contracts. If he returns to being a slightly better than league average reliever in Arizona does it mean that the Twins have lousy coaches or Stauffer had a bad year?

[alarp33]

 

Of course! The only question is whether they will catch the Royal this year or 2017. Bob, they were in the hunt all last season. Do you really believe we waited for Sano and Buxton only to get worse.

 

On paper they are the worst team in the division.  It's not nearly as simple as just saying "they were 2nd last year, with a couple better performances they could be 1st this year".  They were one of the healthiest teams in baseball last year, and were far and away #2 in Cluster luck.  If things like that come back to the norm, its much more likely this is a 70-75 win team than 85+

[gunnarthor]

 

No one said a Plouffe wasn't fine. But Plouffe wasn't a good defender at the start. He was allowed to learn and improve at the position. They have made it abundantly clear Sano is athletic enough, so why not give him the chance just as Plouffe was given?

Deference to veterans. They've said from day one of the offseason that they won't move Plouffe and I believe them. Ryan didn't want to move Plouffe so they moved Sano. I think it had very little to do with Sano.

Well, I think you're wrong.  And since the Twins have a pretty extensive history of moving vets to make room for younger players, I don't think you have a lot to support it.  Plouffe is a better third baseman which is why he's there.  Not a conspiracy.  And guys like Klaw think the Twins are doing the right thing.  

[ashbury]

My memory is fuzzy as hell. Which young pitcher showed they really belonged last year after being called up?

Stauffer had 2 years prior of above average pitching in the bullpen before joining the Twins,  Since his release Stauffer continues to be able to sign contracts. If he returns to being a slightly better than league average reliever in Arizona does it mean that the Twins have lousy coaches or Stauffer had a bad year?

You are correct IMO about young pitchers not stepping up particularly well.

 

Stauffer on the other hand was visibly a poor choice as anything other than an innings eater, prior to the Twins ever signing him; you want a reliever who is a threat to have an ERA in the 2's, not someone you hope will keep it under 4. He had a below average ERA as an NL pitcher dating back through 2011, even before taking into account that relievers as a group achieve better ERA than starters do (he did start in 2011). As for signing contracts afterward, the Mets took him because they only had to pay league minimum since the Twins were on the hook for the rest of his salary; and the Diamondbacks signed him to a minor league deal this offseason. Stauffer's days as a major leaguer are through unless he steps up his game this spring. Signing Stauffer at any price was a flub, from the git-go.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't fault the Twins for hanging on to Plouffe and I don't think letting him walk is the worst idea if that's how the hand plays out.

 

What really sucks is that Sano hurt his hamstring and couldn't play third. Getting him a handful of games at the hot corner in 2015 may have helped the Twins make the decision to move Plouffe.

 

Would the Twins have moved Plouffe if that happened? Dunno. Maybe unlikely... But it never hurts to see how a young player handles defense against MLB hitters.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Actually, Duensing, Burton, and Suzuki were useful for multiple years. Can you give the board a working definition for briefly useful?

Suzuki and Burton each have one season with the Twins above 0.5 WAR at B-Ref.  Duensing has 3 in 7 years, including only one in the last 5.  Considering their ages, salaries, trade value, and our contention status for most of those years, they don't strike me as being particularly useful most of the time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure I'd say 15 was many, but which of the young relievers was ready to go last year during spring training?

Tonkin and Pressly spent the first month of the season in AAA.  Tonkin spent an additional couple weeks down there when Stauffer returned from the DL too.  Further down the list, Achter was in AAA until August, Darnell until September.  Obviously not great options for immediate contributions, but clearly all of these guys offered more upside than Stauffer and his one-year contract (likely as a long reliever or swingman, as evidenced by his shot at starting in spring training).

[Oxtung]

 

My memory is fuzzy as hell. Which young pitcher showed they really belonged last year after being called up?

Stauffer had 2 years prior of above average pitching in the bullpen before joining the Twins,  Since his release Stauffer continues to be able to sign contracts. If he returns to being a slightly better than league average reliever in Arizona does it mean that the Twins have lousy coaches or Stauffer had a bad year?

 

 

I'm not sure I'd say 15 was many, but which of the young relievers was ready to go last year during spring training?  I remember being unhappy they hadn't gotten a better reliever over the winter, not thinking that Burdi was ready to go right out of the gate.  My unhappiness was Stauffer vs some other veteran reliever as a stopgap to when a young player stepped up.  It wasn't a case of there being rookies who were clearly ready who were being closed out.  That's what would definitely make me unhappy this year, though, if they signed a Stauffer- (or Duensing-)like veteran.

 

Ryan Pressly, Michael Tonkin, and AJ Achter all began the 2015 season at AAA after spending all of 2014 there as well.  All had sub 3 ERA's and all had >9 K/9 rates.  Hell, Pressly had already thrown 100 IP of ~4 ERA at the major league level.

 

Again, there are instances when the Twins make room for young guys, Span, Revere, Pierzynski all are examples; but Stauffer isn't one of them.  

[Mike Sixel]

I like Plouffe on this team. There is not a better answer right now. Not sure there is a better answer in a year or two, either, I've never seen Sano play 3B......but the fact they are putting him in the OF gives me a clue.

 

As for Stauffer, signing him meant not signing an actually good RP (kind of like this year's "moves", imo). It was a typical, imo, Twins move. Sign a cheap guy and hope, rather than sign a good guy. Or, their scouts thought Stauffer was good, leaving me to question the scouts.......

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Stauffer had 2 years prior of above average pitching in the bullpen before joining the Twins

By ERA+, Stauffer only had one such year prior to joining the Twins (2014), and that was compiled in mop-up duty for the Padres.  In 2013, he had an ERA+ of 91, exclusively in mop-up relief.  League average ERA+ for relievers is probably ~105.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well, I think you're wrong.  And since the Twins have a pretty extensive history of moving vets to make room for younger players, I don't think you have a lot to support it.  Plouffe is a better third baseman which is why he's there.  Not a conspiracy.  And guys like Klaw think the Twins are doing the right thing.  

 

We'll find out if Plouffe is given an indefensible extension.  

 

And the Twins have spent plenty of time hanging on to veteran players too long to the point of them becoming value-less (or worse) to the organization.  I'm not sure how that's even up for debate.  

 

Also - Plouffe is a fine player, but he is counted on and talked about by this organization like something he isn't.  He's not much more than "ok".  Which is fine, ok players are great to have, but that's all he is.  Against RHP he shouldn't be batting higher than 7th either given his splits.

[DaveW]

"Plouffe had the most RBI's last year, why on earth would you want to trade him?"- Terry Ryan

Sadly this is more or less a real quote by a GM in 2016.

[gunnarthor]

 

We'll find out if Plouffe is given an indefensible extension.  

 

And the Twins have spent plenty of time hanging on to veteran players too long to the point of them becoming value-less (or worse) to the organization.  I'm not sure how that's even up for debate.  

 

It shouldn't be up for debate - it's a false narrative that should be destroyed.  

 

I agree that Plouffe is "ok".  He is what he is - a league avg bat with some pop but low on-base skills and slightly above avg defense at third.  He'll have some nice streaks where he's arguably their best offensive weapon but then he'll follow up with a real cold spell.  That's still a nice player to have.  I don't think he'll get an extension but I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins used a QO on him after next season, depending on how well he played and what the pipeline has for them.  If Gordon (or Polanco) can convince the team that they are able to be the starting SS by 2018, then Escobar could slide over.  Defensively, he could probably handle it.  Whether his bat would be good enough is a different question.

[gunnarthor]

 

"Plouffe had the most RBI's last year, why on earth would you want to trade him?"- Terry Ryan

Sadly this is more or less a real quote by a GM in 2016.

Sadly, this is another example of you using something out of context to attack Ryan.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

It shouldn't be up for debate - it's a false narrative that should be destroyed.  

 

I agree that Plouffe is "ok".  He is what he is - a league avg bat with some pop but low on-base skills and slightly above avg defense at third.  He'll have some nice streaks where he's arguably their best offensive weapon but then he'll follow up with a real cold spell.  That's still a nice player to have.  I don't think he'll get an extension but I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins used a QO on him after next season, depending on how well he played and what the pipeline has for them.  If Gordon (or Polanco) can convince the team that they are able to be the starting SS by 2018, then Escobar could slide over.  Defensively, he could probably handle it.  Whether his bat would be good enough is a different question.

 

I mean, how many names have to be dropped about guys run out FAR past their usefulness.  This team gives way too long of a leash to anyone that they consider "their" guys.  That loyalty has benefits, but it has costs too.  It's part of how this team operates, to call it a false narrative is ridiculous.

 

If they extend a 16M dollar QO to Trevor Plouffe I think my head will explode.