Plouffe and the Mid Market Payroll

[Platoon]

I know there is a scintillating discussion going on in another thread about whether the Twins are small or mid market! Ed Thoma has an interesting piece on one of the results of the Twins making the mid market level.

 

http://fpbaseballoutsider.blogspot.com/

 

The Twins are around the 48% level on spending. They will never outbid the big boys for the top FA. Nor, with a rare exception keep a player just reaching free agency that the rest of the league desires. I have long ago made peace with that. And while one can wish that the Pohlads should open the vault and spend "personal" cash to achieve the above that is not going to happen, despite Ryan's never ending tall tale that he operates under no salary cap.

 

My problem with the FO relates more to their seeming paralysis when it comes to moving forward. They become comfortable with players, past and present. They won the lottery when they picked up the Suzukis and Willinghams of the world. And kept them when they had attained their peak value, and are doing the same with Plouffe, and likely Dozier. While I am sure the attached article is not the sole explanation regarding these issues, it's points are well thought out.

[DaveW]

To be fair, it would be very foolhardy NOT to give Plouffe a contract, he is a very solid contributor for any ballclub he would be on. The argument in regards to Plouffe is whether or not the Twins should trade him and open up 3B for Sano.

 

While I am not a fan of the Suzuki contract and others, there was absolutely no reason not to keep Plouffe around at this stage.

[TheLeviathan]

He's right though.  This is why the organization stuck with Fien rather than adding someone substantial in the offseason.

 

Hell, one name - Brian Duensing.  The trade market for 3B wasn't very good this offseason and that gives them some cover, but the truth is that I doubt they even attempted to shop him for precisely the reasons laid out in this blog: they are too comfortable with the status quo and with veteran guys.  Too often they hang on to the aura of the past rather than take risks and be aggressive with young players.  

 

This team is a better team with Sano at third for the long haul.  Interrupting his progression there is the biggest travesty of this whole outfield switch.

[DaveW]

 

He's right though.  This is why the organization stuck with Fien rather than adding someone substantial in the offseason.

 

Hell, one name - Brian Duensing.  The trade market for 3B wasn't very good this offseason and that gives them some cover, but the truth is that I doubt they even attempted to shop him for precisely the reasons laid out in this blog: they are too comfortable with the status quo and with veteran guys.  Too often they hang on to the aura of the past rather than take risks and be aggressive with young players.  

 

This team is a better team with Sano at third for the long haul.  Interrupting his progression there is the biggest travesty of this whole outfield switch.

I agree 100% with all of this. I would trade Plouffe for any sort of valid return at this stage (high upside/high risk minor leaguer etc)

Just was saying that tendering Plouffe a contract at this stage wasn't a bad idea.

[TheLeviathan]

No I agree.  They made choices months ago that made that offer a given.  The problem was the choices made months ago.

[gunnarthor]

I don't see the payroll as any major problem for the rebuild.  They've brought up a ton of young guys since Ryan came back, some are part of the team, some aren't, but you don't really see anyone of consequence being blocked.  Having Plouffe on the team is a good thing as it's usually a bit hard to replace 3 WAR players.  

[DaveW]

 

  Having Plouffe on the team is a good thing as it's usually a bit hard to replace 3 WAR players.  

Even when you have a potential 6 WAR guy ready to take over for him? (NTM 7 mil cheaper)

[jimmer]

I wonder how much offense Sano is going to have to provide to be a 6 WAR player at any position when you consider defense is taken into account.

[DaveW]

 

I wonder how much offense Sano is going to have to provide to be a 6 WAR player at any position when you consider defense is taken into account.

I think Sano can be average at 3rd base defensively. SSS no doubt, but he had a good UZR/`150 last year at 3rd.

[jimmer]

I think Sano can be average at 3rd base defensively.

Wishful thinking for sure.

[gunnarthor]

 

Even when you have a potential 6 WAR guy ready to take over for him? (NTM 7 mil cheaper)

Yes, Plouffe isn't blocking Sano's bat.  The Twins get to have both now.  That's a good thing.

[Oxtung]

I think there are a few good points that we can all agree on.  

 

First, the Twins fall in love with certain veterans and they get resigned even though there are frequently better options out there.  Sometimes I think the Twins FO makes decisions that are based off of short term results that aren't borne out by long term trends.  This includes names like Duensing, Swarzak, Suzuki, Doumit, Palfrey, Correia, Etc...

 

Second, if there is a veteran with a guaranteed contract and a young player with options competing for playing time, the veteran will get the first opportunity to play.

 

Third, at times the FO falls in love with certain hitting prospects and makes aggressive moves to find playing time/room.  This includes Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Sano and it appears as if CF is being set up for Buxton.

 

I'll add more later.  Getting kicked off the computer.

[drjim]

 

I think there are a few good points that we can all agree on.  

 

First, the Twins fall in love with certain veterans and they get resigned even though there are frequently better options out there.  Sometimes I think the Twins FO makes decisions that are based off of short term results that aren't borne out by long term trends.  This includes names like Duensing, Swarzak, Suzuki, Doumit, Palfrey, Correia, Etc...

 

Second, if there is a veteran with a guaranteed contract and a young player with options competing for playing time, the veteran will get the first opportunity to play.

 

Third, at times the FO falls in love with certain hitting prospects and makes aggressive moves to find playing time/room.  This includes Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Sano and it appears as if CF is being set up for Buxton.

 

I'll add more later.  Getting kicked off the computer.

 

I would agree with points 2 and 3 so much that I would argue that every other team in baseball does the same thing almost all the time.

 

Point 1 does strike me as a more uniquely (though not exclusively) Twins consideration.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think there are a few good points that we can all agree on.  

 

First, the Twins fall in love with certain veterans and they get resigned even though there are frequently better options out there.  Sometimes I think the Twins FO makes decisions that are based off of short term results that aren't borne out by long term trends.  This includes names like Duensing, Swarzak, Suzuki, Doumit, Palfrey, Correia, Etc...

 

Second, if there is a veteran with a guaranteed contract and a young player with options competing for playing time, the veteran will get the first opportunity to play.

 

Third, at times the FO falls in love with certain hitting prospects and makes aggressive moves to find playing time/room.  This includes Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Sano and it appears as if CF is being set up for Buxton.

 

I'll add more later.  Getting kicked off the computer.

I don't think any of those things are actually true.  I'm sure there are instances of all of them but generally it's more a false narrative than anything else.  Heck, the Twins used to get ripped because they wouldn't keep veterans around.  And while they have resigned guys like Doumit, it's not clear there were obviously better options available. 

[Rosterman]

Plouffe's contract this season is not the problem. It will be his contract next season. And any team trading for him has to take that into consideration. Will he be worth his 2017 dollars. If he is, then whomever owns him this season should be looking at wrapping him up in a 3-year deal with an option for a third. Yes, the marekt for a third baseman this of-season is slim. Plouffe will be a watchable commodity come spring training and thru the trade deadline.

 

But, the Twins, they get some good deals (Willingham and Suzuki) but fail to move when the pot is hot, so to speak. Same can be said of Delmon Young. It's not that they don't move players that may still have peak seasons ahead (Revere, Span and now Hicks). But better looks need to be taken of bargains that can provide more for the future. Experienced players usually come abck to their aveage at some point.

 

48% of revenue. No one has ever fully explained this to me. When the Twins were a $100 million team, they spent $50+ million on payroll. Now that they take in upwards of $250 million, they spend around $120 million. That means they had $50 million for operations and such before. Now they have $120 million. Sure, they spend a  bit more on draft picks (including international), but I don't see front office and stadium payroll increasing as much as, say, baseball players. One knows the business world is constantly in the battle that unionized employees always demand a certain percentage of an organizations expenditures, usually taking into costs of production. But I actually see a decrease in the number of ticket sellers since the Twins moved into Target Field, for example.

 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

Plough may be an asset in the very, very short term. Past this year he starts to become less and less of an asset at a precipitous rate and you just freaking know the team is going to pay him too much for too long and play him past his usefulness.

 

Playing guys past their usefulness because they are "Twins guys" is one of this teams worst traits.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't know about that, the Twins were pretty smart with Koskie, Jones, etc.  I could see them making a qualifying offer to Plouffe after 2017 and either keeping him another year or letting him walk.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know about that, the Twins were pretty smart with Koskie, Jones, etc.  I could see them making a qualifying offer to Plouffe after 2017 and either keeping him another year or letting him walk.

Those are good examples, but they feel like ancient history compared to Duensing, Burton, Suzuki, etc. I'm really hoping we can move him before he walks for nothing and we move Sano back.

[big dog]

I think a good counter-example is Blaine Boyer- the guy's a veteran, Ryan found him somewhere, he had a pretty decent year, but he's clearly not anywhere in the mix, presumably in order to give some minor leaguers a shot.  This is IMHO exactly the right thing to do, but I'm happily surprised the Twins did it.  They do seem to have a strong interest in veterans, but here's a case where they are not going there.

 

Signing Stauffer was a mistake, but they also admitted it was a mistake pretty quickly.  He pitched 15 innings, total.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Those are good examples, but they feel like ancient history compared to Duensing, Burton, Suzuki, etc. I'm really hoping we can move him before he walks for nothing and we move Sano back.

Yeah, and those kind of "Twins guys" weren't all that useful to begin with (or only very briefly useful to us).

 

I don't think Plouffe falls in that group yet, and the fact they haven't extended him yet is a very good sign.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think a good counter-example is Blaine Boyer- the guy's a veteran, Ryan found him somewhere, he had a pretty decent year, but he's clearly not anywhere in the mix, presumably in order to give some minor leaguers a shot.  This is IMHO exactly the right thing to do, but I'm happily surprised the Twins did it.  They do seem to have a strong interest in veterans, but here's a case where they are not going there.

 

Signing Stauffer was a mistake, but they also admitted it was a mistake pretty quickly.  He pitched 15 innings, total.

Stauffer lasted over 2 months, and it took an epically bad performance to get him released that quickly. Jordan Schafer too.  Similar for Jason Marquis back in 2012.  Not sure if that's a plus for the team.

 

And the weird thing about Boyer is, his 2015 performance was basically best-case scenario.  And ultimately, it didn't help us at all, either down the stretch in 2015 or going forward.  I don't like those kind of deals, even if the Twins are wise enough not to re-sign him.

 

Abad doesn't look much better.  He has one extra season of potential team control, but that's just as likely to be a negative as a positive.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yeah, and those kind of "Twins guys" weren't all that useful to begin with (or only very briefly useful to us).

 

I don't think Plouffe falls in that group yet, and the fact they haven't extended him yet is a very good sign.

 

I agree, but I'm dreading the extension announcement.  I feel like it's an inevitable mistake waiting to happen.

[Kwak]

Keeping Plouffe--perhaps the Twins don't think Sano has a future at 3B?  Consider that the Twins held tight to the idea that Plouffe was a SS for many years before admitting that he wasn't a SS.

[alarp33]

 

Yes, Plouffe isn't blocking Sano's bat.  The Twins get to have both now.  That's a good thing.

 

They could have both Sano + Kepler, which by ~ June would be much >>> than Sano (OF) + Plouffe

[gunnarthor]

 

They could have both Sano + Kepler, which by ~ June would be much >>> than Sano (OF) + Plouffe

Maybe, but that would still give us two months of Sano + meh and we still don't know how Kepler will work out.  The Twins should be a playoff team this year so it doesn't really make sense to jettison a known quality like Plouffe.  Esp since we don't know how well Sano will play third.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Maybe, but that would still give us two months of Sano + meh and we still don't know how Kepler will work out.  The Twins should be a playoff team this year so it doesn't really make sense to jettison a known quality like Plouffe.  Esp since we don't know how well Sano will play third.

 

All we are doing is kicking the "Sano at 3B" can down the road.  It's not like we have much for alternatives in the system should Plouffe even slide back a little bit.  

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Yes, Plouffe isn't blocking Sano's bat.  The Twins get to have both now.  That's a good thing.

Plouffe is the definition of a league average hitter with a career wRC+ at 100, (100 is average) (92 in '13, 112 in '14, and 102 in '15), his value or perceived value comes from his defensive metrics which aren't stellar either.  Trevor's UZR/150 at 3B for his career is -2.9 (0 is league average) (-8.5 in '13, 7.7 in '14, 1.7 in '15).  Further breakdown of those defensive numbers shows a below average range but the balls that he does get to he fields well.  So Scott Rolen he is not with the glove.  Plouffe's WAR was 2.5 last year and projections have him about the same if not less than that in 2016.

 

With free agency looming next year for Plouffe, if the Twins want any sort of return they'll deal him by July (sooner the better for a return) or else he walks at season's end and you get nothing in return.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Maybe, but that would still give us two months of Sano + meh and we still don't know how Kepler will work out.  The Twins should be a playoff team this year so it doesn't really make sense to jettison a known quality like Plouffe.  Esp since we don't know how well Sano will play third.

With a rotation of Hughes, Santana, Milone, Nolasco, and Gibson (with Duffy/May in waiting) you think the Twins are a playoff team?

[gunnarthor]

 

With a rotation of Hughes, Santana, Milone, Nolasco, and Gibson (with Duffy/May in waiting) you think the Twins are a playoff team?

Yep.  They'll be fine.

[gunnarthor]

 

All we are doing is kicking the "Sano at 3B" can down the road.  It's not like we have much for alternatives in the system should Plouffe even slide back a little bit.  

My thought going into the offseason was that the Twins were going to look at Sano at third in winter ball and make their decision based on that.  I think they've made up their mind that he's not a third baseman. Not now, not ever.  So when Plouffe is gone, Sano won't be replacing him. Eventually, he probably moves to firstbase.  But he can handle RF for a few seasons.