Plouffe and the Mid Market Payroll

[DaveW]

 

Park was signed with the idea that Plouffe would be traded, I refuse to believe whatever the Twins say to the contrary.

I don't, everything Ryan has said has indicated they haven't seriously looked at trading Plouffe, which is what this thread is all about.

Catering to the mediocre to (or in this case: average) veteran and messing with your real stars.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Actually, the greatest trick TR ever pulled was completely rebuilding a mid-market team in less than 4 years.

 

It's done? Huh.

 

If he did, it is LARGELY thru free agency....which is interesting.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, I don't think Ryan would go public with saying he wanted to trade him even if he was trying.  That's hard enough on a guy like Plouffe not to mention it doesn't always work when it comes to trade values.

[Platoon]

Actually, the greatest trick TR ever pulled was completely rebuilding a mid-market team in less than 4 years.

That would depend on the definition of "rebuilding"!

[Platoon]

Actually, the greatest trick TR ever pulled was completely rebuilding a mid-market team in less than 4 years.

That would depend on the definition of "rebuilding"!

I just don't see how a season or two in the OF makes it impossible for Sano to move back to 3B or 1B. There is enough talent coming up that flexibility is a good thing, and let the players sort it out.

 

Perfectly acceptable way to start the season, and has the benefit of keeping as many good bats in the lineup as possible.

This would assume/require that Kepler stays in Rochester for two years? And per the scenario, this year Sano invests in rumbling around in RF, and within a year of having "perfected" that he moves to third? Where we invest a year getting re-acclimated to the IF. Then when that's done what next? When the Mauer contract is up after 3 yrs he moves to first?

[drjim]

Which players did Hunter make better? Will they still be that good this year, or worse? I don't the answer to either. But unless someone can say "he made Rosario much better than he otherwise would have been, or Sano or Buxton"....who was he mentoring? Mauer? Suzuki? Dozier? Escobar? Plouffe? Hughes? Perkins? Ervin Santana? I could keep listing the veterans on this roster.....but the point is, there weren't many young players even on the roster for him to mentor, were there?

 

Does anyone think that Sano would have hit worse if Hunter wasn't there? If so, Hunter was worth about 20-30MM? Right?

Obviously these are impossible questions to answer. But the team won 13 more games, exceeded expectations, and almost every player and field staff member gave credit to Hunter. I'll take the easy route and believe them.

[Platoon]

Actually, the greatest trick TR ever pulled was completely rebuilding a mid-market team in less than 4 years.

That would depend on the definition of "rebuilding"!

 

I just don't see how a season or two in the OF makes it impossible for Sano to move back to 3B or 1B. There is enough talent coming up that flexibility is a good thing, and let the players sort it out.

 

Perfectly acceptable way to start the season, and has the benefit of keeping as many good bats in the lineup as possible.

This would assume/require that Kepler stays in Rochester for two years? And per the scenario, this year Sano invests in rumbling around in RF, and within a year of having "perfected" that he moves to third? Where we invest a year getting re-acclimated to the IF. Then when that's done what next? When the Mauer contract is up after 3 yrs he moves to first?

 

I'd argue signing Park caused the biggest issue but "tomato, tomahto".

In the end, I suspect it will work out. Redundancy isn't the worst thing in the world but it'd be a hell of a lot better if that redundancy didn't revolve around 3B/1B/DH.

Is it possible the Park signing was almost a fluke? Did they throw a number out there, really never thinking they had a chance? I know that's an odd thought, but two things bother me about the Park signing. 2. We didn't need a DH! 1. We just have no history of outbidding other teams for a player who is widely desired (talented)!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Obviously these are impossible questions to answer. But the team won 13 more games, exceeded expectations, and almost every player and field staff member gave credit to Hunter. I'll take the easy route and believe them.

 

That's a fair stance. Like I said, i don't know. 

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Funny thing is that supposedly the Cubs had a better offer on the table (according to the 'experts' at least).

 

This was probably a good example of trading at surplus (and a valuable surplus at that) and both trading for need, accepting some risk, and trading for the future.  The Twins needed a closer, and Nathan looked like he might fit the bill.  Bonser was pretty much ready as a prospect, though he had lost some shine, and Liriano was a lottery ticket.  There's no such thing as a pitching prospect, but Ryan really did hit the jack pot on this one.  Now to be fair, this trade would never happen today. 

 

Back to Plouffe, I hope/suspect he's traded at some point.  I'm not against holding on to him a bit until Kepler, Buxton, and/or Arcia really force some things and Rosario shows how he belongs.  I think the OF will be hurt in the short term as there may be some struggles, and I don't see how it will be average defensively.  In the mean time, he is an insurance policy of sorts. He's a known quantity, above average, and while not a star, he's not bad either.  I don't think they get much for him even if he's traded at the deadline.  I personally hope for a couple of higher ceiling, non-40 man, A ball prospects as our system is currently top heavy.

That Cubs trade would have netted the Twins Chicago's former top pitching prospect Juan Cruz (#6 overall after 2001 season) and midlevel prospect Todd Wellemeyer.  Looks like that worked out for the Twins and AJ Pierzynski goes down as one of the most hated players on the Northside of Chicago.  Still get a smile on my face when I see the video of Barrett punching AJ in the jaw.

 

Agree with your assessment of what Plouffe gets in return, really think Twins fans overvalue him.

[drjim]

And per the scenario, this year Sano invests in rumbling around in RF, and within a year of having "perfected" that he moves to third? Where we invest a year getting re-acclimated to the IF. Then when that's done what next? When the Mauer contract is up after 3 yrs he moves to first? Is it possible the Park signing was almost a fluke? Did they throw a number out there, really never thinking they had a chance?

My initial thought is make sure Kepler is good and then figure it out. If he explodes on the scene then it probably will be Plouffe that goes. But certainly no guarantee that Rosario or Park will be everyday guys or that Mauer will stay healthy. Good having some depth and flexibility.

 

And yes, I imagine the baseline plan is LF two years, 3B for a year or two, then move over to 1B. A very logical progression for his skill set.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

It's done? Huh.

 

If he did, it is LARGELY thru free agency....which is interesting.

Yeah giving up out these contracts to "average" starting pitchers the past two years doesn't help Terry Ryan's case for rebuilding: Ervin Santana 55M/4Y, Phil Hughes 58M/5Y, Ricky Nolasco 49M/4Y and logjams you in the future or even present, go ask Tyler Duffy, Trevor May and Jose Berrios who are arguably better and much cheaper.

 

Personally from an outsider's perspective, the Twins led by Terry Ryan seem comfortable "middle grounding it" - putting out a team that is .500 and hoping everything clicks and they end up with a wildcard spot.  I'll gladly play Devil's Advocate and say the rebuilding phase wasn't done.  That 2015 was an aberration and perhaps detrimental to the long standing process of the ballclub in that instead of playing the youth card they were more content on making the playoffs for one year.  Time will only tell for 2016 but the rest of your division improved while the Twins kept with the status quo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you don't count the fact he got hit and then injured, Pressly had a great year!

Actually, I don't know if Pressly got hit all that much in 2015.  .321 BABIP at B-Ref, basically 2 hits more than league average. His ERA and FIP are virtually identical.  If anything, he got a bit lucky by not giving up any HR (reflected in his much higher xFIP).

[drjim]

 

Actually, I don't know if Pressly got hit all that much in 2015.  .321 BABIP at B-Ref, basically 2 hits more than league average. His ERA and FIP are virtually identical.  If anything, he got a bit lucky by not giving up any HR (reflected in his much higher xFIP).

 

You are probably right, I just thought it was funny how it was worded.

 

I think he is prime candidate to have a nice year this year. 4 pitches, misses bats, hopefully stays healthy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Obviously these are impossible questions to answer. But the team won 13 more games, exceeded expectations, and almost every player and field staff member gave credit to Hunter. I'll take the easy route and believe them.

To be fair, those are the same guys that probably believe a necklace can improve their performance too.

 

http://www.medpagetoday.com/CelebrityDiagnosis/42609

 

Not to mention adjusting batting gloves, stepping over a chalk line, etc.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

My initial thought is make sure Kepler is good and then figure it out. If he explodes on the scene then it probably will be Plouffe that goes. But certainly no guarantee that Rosario or Park will be everyday guys or that Mauer will stay healthy. Good having some depth and flexibility.

And yes, I imagine the baseline plan is LF two years, 3B for a year or two, then move over to 1B. A very logical progression for his skill set.

But you're not going to find out if Kepler is good on a MLB level because he's not going to get a chance espeically if you are trying to convince yourself that Sano is a corner OFer with Buxton in center and Arcia/Rosario in the other corner.  

 

Switching a positional player that much (3 changes in 4 years) is NEVER good for their production whether it's offensively or defensively or development.  The absolutely last thing the Twins should want to do is mess with Sano's development.  Miguel's "athletic" but he's not Craig Biggio athletic.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think he is prime candidate to have a nice year this year. 4 pitches, misses bats, hopefully stays healthy.

Pressly has yet to miss many bats at the MLB level, but he has gotten some results.

 

Sorry, just looked at the thread title.  I have no idea how this tangent started, but I'll gladly end it here too.

[howieramone2]

 

Sarcasm?

Truth.

[howieramone2]

 

this team is completely rebuilt? Don't see that. Also, when you look at how much rebuilding has been done, is it all due to him and was it all done just since he has been back?

Indeed, the the team was completely rebuilt. No one said the improvement was over or the team has peaked. Why not share with the board your understanding of how our favorite team went from four 90 loss seasons in a row to a team which was in the hunt all last season?

[howieramone2]

 

Huh. The Twins are projected to finish last in the AL Central, and any glimmer of hope they have centers around guys like Sano, Kepler, Gibson, Dozier etc... I assumed on a board like this most people would know Bill Smith signed/drafted them.  

 

But TR did do a great job drafting the top ranked player in the 2012 draft at #2.  

Really, Bill Smith? Sarcasm?

[howieramone2]

 

I suspect that was the case. It's unfortunate the market bottomed out on 3B this offseason.

 

But Levi has a point... Ryan never wavered from the "I'm not trading Trevor" line... But Ryan often says stuff like that so I don't put much stock in his quotes. He plays it extremely close to the vest.

 

Flip a coin, IMO. It's possible Ryan was feinting, it's possible he never had plans to trade Plouffe.

Bingo!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But you're not going to find out if Kepler is good on a MLB level because he's not going to get a chance espeically if you are trying to convince yourself that Sano is a corner OFer with Buxton in center and Arcia/Rosario in the other corner.  

 

Switching a positional player that much (3 changes in 4 years) is NEVER good for their production whether it's offensively or defensively or development.  The absolutely last thing the Twins should want to do is mess with Sano's development.  Miguel's "athletic" but he's not Craig Biggio athletic.  

Switching a player's position *can* hurt their development but it's far from a given that it will. Miggy and Pujols are two obvious examples of players who weren't hurt a lick by shuffling them around the diamond.

 

I don't get the fretting over Kepler. He had one very good breakout season that may have been BABIP-driven. I don't think it was but the guy needs a bit more development time and shouldn't be a consideration until June at the earliest.

 

There's plenty of time to rearrange the roster if Kepler forces his way onto it. Right now, it's not even on my radar.

[mazeville]

Twins should trade Plouffe.

 

They're not trading Plouffe. They didn't even consider it or entertain offers. Awful.

 

Plouffe has a career average OPS+ of 99. His best year, 2014, he had an OPS+ of 110.

 

By contrast, Miguel Sano in his one year had an OPS+ of 146. He was a rookie. So Sano has a much bigger bat at third.

 

True, by keeping Plouffe and moving Sano to the outfield, you get to keep both players. And isn’t that better than just one?

 

But think about this: Oswaldo Arcia has career OPS+ of 104, and in 2014 had an OPS+ of 108 while hitting 20 homers in 410 at-bats. Even last year, an alleged disaster, he had an OPS+ of 96. He is younger and has more potential.

 

So it’s safe to say that the Twins would easily recover any lost offense by losing Plouffe by simply playing Arcia, who couldn’t be any worse defensively than Sano.

 

The down side, of course, is that the team loses the benefit of Plouffe’s defense. And I understand a field with Sano and Arcia at the same time is probably worse than a field with Sano and Plouffe.

 

But it’s also important to note that the team has other options in the outfield, like Max Kepler. And they would have had a really good option in right in Aaron Hicks had they not traded him shortly after the World Series.

 

Sano should be able to improve his fielding at the corner. If not, why keep him at third until just recently? If this was that much of an issue, why not him in the OF a few times in AA? He didn’t play any games in the outfield. 

[jimmer]

Howie, you think winning 83 games means rebuilding is done?

 

Here's my take on how we finally stopped the 90 loss trend.

 

We had very advantageous sequencing last year. It's how we explain being 8th in the AL in scoring even though we were last in OBP, 12th in SLG %, 13th in OPS and 14th in wRC+. You think we can count on that kind of sequencing again this year? BaseRuns had us with about 10 less wins. Pythag had us with two less wins.

 

Our relief pitching was pathetic and needs work as pointed out by Ryan and everyone with eyes.

 

Our starting pitching is full of #3-#5 starters. Our defense may actually get worse.

 

 

 

If he is done with his rebuild, we are so screwed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Twins should trade Plouffe.

 

They're not trading Plouffe. They didn't even consider it or entertain offers. 

Given what other third basemen were getting on the market this offseason, it wasn't in the team's best interest to trade Plouffe.

 

Trevor Plouffe is roughly a 2.5-3 WAR player, yet some around here are champing at the bit to trade him away for mid-level relief prospects.

 

That's... Insane.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I suspect that was the case. It's unfortunate the market bottomed out on 3B this offseason.

 

But Levi has a point... Ryan never wavered from the "I'm not trading Trevor" line... But Ryan often says stuff like that so I don't put much stock in his quotes. He plays it extremely close to the vest.

 

Flip a coin, IMO. It's possible Ryan was feinting, it's possible he never had plans to trade Plouffe.

 

 

I get pinning it on Park, but Park gives some upside and team control.  His lack of proven play also gives the team the option to use Arcia as a DH in that scenario.

 

I think too many people (I doubt you believe this, based on past comments) have given up on Arcia.  I think that's a major mistake.

 

So moving Sano off of DH allows us more options to play Arcia, but I'd like to see Sano proving he can handle third base (or not) before we move him.

[drjim]

 

I get pinning it on Park, but Park gives some upside and team control.  His lack of proven play also gives the team the option to use Arcia as a DH in that scenario.

 

I think too many people (I doubt you believe this, based on past comments) have given up on Arcia.  I think that's a major mistake.

 

So moving Sano off of DH allows us more options to play Arcia, but I'd like to see Sano proving he can handle third base (or not) before we move him.

 

I am not giving up on Arcia, but I also think it is wise that he is not being guaranteed anything. If he hits they'll find a spot for him. I imagine Park will get broken in a little slower than we might think, Mauer will still need the occasional day, and Rosario and Buxton aren't going to play every day. Arcia, if he earns it, will get his ABs.

 

I find it a good thing they've built up this depth and potential versatility. Gives them some options if there are injuries or people don't perform.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I get pinning it on Park, but Park gives some upside and team control.  His lack of proven play also gives the team the option to use Arcia as a DH in that scenario.

 

I think too many people (I doubt you believe this, based on past comments) have given up on Arcia.  I think that's a major mistake.

 

So moving Sano off of DH allows us more options to play Arcia, but I'd like to see Sano proving he can handle third base (or not) before we move him.

Don't confuse me not being upset about Plouffe being on the roster with approval of the current roster.

 

This is not how I would have handled the offseason. Whether it's trading Plouffe or not picking up Park, I would have gone a different route.

 

But that's only my opinion. I don't entirely like what Ryan has done this offseason but I don't hate it, either (not including the bullpen in this statement). It's... *shrugs*

 

I'm "negatively neutral" on the offseason, I guess you could say. It's not how I would have done it but I can't get too riled up about it, either.

[mazeville]

 

Given what other third basemen were getting on the market this offseason, it wasn't in the team's best interest to trade Plouffe.

 

Trevor Plouffe is roughly a 2.5-3 WAR player, yet some around here are champing at the bit to trade him away for mid-level relief prospects.

 

That's... Insane.

 

I think it's evidence the Twins overvalue Plouffe. I'm not saying they should dump Plouffe for a "mid-level relief prospect," but I also believe that done correctly he'd fetch more than that.

 

There is also the question of what to do with Arcia.

 

In any event, the Twins didn't even entertain offers. How do you know you won't get anything if you don't entertain offers? I don't think any of the third basemen traded are similar to Plouffe. Todd Frazier was an all-star and fetched three players. David Freese is an older player past his prime. So I'm not sure where the evidence is that the market stunk -- but I might have missed something.

 

This is part of what I think frustrates so many fans. The team has entirely too many legacy players like this who keep spots because they're too good to trade for what the market will pay for them. Or because they don't have the value they once did.

 

Meanwhile, teams like the Cubs and the As somehow manage to use trades to quickly rebuild their farm systems. 

[terrydactyls]

In any event, the Twins didn't even entertain offers.

 

And you know this for a fact? Or are you surmising this because they didn't consult you?

 

If any team really wanted to acquire Plouffe, all they had to do is pick up a phone, offer Ryan several great players (which many posters seem to feel he is worth), and the deal would have been made. My belief is that no one was willing to part with anyone worthwhile to the Twins, so the front office maintained the misconception that they would never trade Plouffe. I think this July, if any team needs some offense at third base, Plouffe will be traded for a lot more than the Twins would have gotten this winter. Too many posters seem to believe that this team is close to a World Series run right now. Maybe in 2017, but not now. Too many holes yet to be filled.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it's evidence the Twins overvalue Plouffe. I'm not saying they should dump Plouffe for a "mid-level relief prospect," but I also believe that done correctly he'd fetch more than that.

 

There is also the question of what to do with Arcia.

 

In any event, the Twins didn't even entertain offers. How do you know you won't get anything if you don't entertain offers? I don't think any of the third basemen traded are similar to Plouffe. Todd Frazier was an all-star and fetched three players. David Freese is an older player past his prime. So I'm not sure where the evidence is that the market stunk -- but I might have missed something.

 

This is part of what I think frustrates so many fans. The team has entirely too many legacy players like this who keep spots because they're too good to trade for what the market will pay for them. Or because they don't have the value they once did.

 

Meanwhile, teams like the Cubs and the As somehow manage to use trades to quickly rebuild their farm systems.

The Frazier trade is more proof of my point than it is yours. Most of the analysis of the Frazier deal hovered between "meh" and "ugh" from the Reds' perspective.

 

This was *not* a good market for third baseman. Frazier had a combined 9.3 WAR over the past two seasons and failed to bring back a great prospect. That's when you hunker down and wait out the market, you don't just trade a guy for the sake of making a trade.