Article: Can Terry Ryan And Old School Scouting Still Build A Bullpen?

[nicksaviking]

 

Thanks.  One thing to note about Samardzija and Abad, they've both had rather inconsistent results over their whole careers.

 

As do most left handed relievers.

 

Non-closer lefties in the pen might be the most combustible position on the whole team. Sipp and Bastardo haven't been models of consistency, simply less inconsistent than many of their peers. Lately.

 

I'd much rather take the gamble on the upside of Melotakis and/or Rogers than two low ceiling vets already on the wrong side of 30. A guy on a minor league deal won't make the front office think twice about promoting them, a guy on a two or three year deal would.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Do you think the Twins minor league system will produce at least 4 MLB quality relievers by opening day 2017?

 

 

I would really, really like the chance to find out.

[old nurse]

Pettit and Rodney were the only relievers not to sign multi year deals. Villanueva did, but he is, and reportedly wants to be,  a spot starter,   Unless you gave a player essentially 2 years pay for one, they are not going to sign for one year if they are good. Prove it players and players wanting to stay on the same team sign for one. Clippard is still available. Made 8 million last year.Ego would say he does not want to go backwards too far on a contract.  His problem is he didn't have a 8 million sort of year. Great candidate fora one year contract, but he would probably hold out until just before camp starts to settle for a one year contract. Even then he would try to find a team he could close for.  The Twins rank low on that unless there is a great sales job about Perkin's health late in a season and GM's remember late season pitching.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not end of discussion....

 

The Twins have 7 bullpen spots, and only one current RP signed beyond 2016 (2 if you count May, who may be back in the rotation sometime anyways) Signing a guy to a 2-3 year contract doesn't block anyone. If the Twins magically end up with 7 guys in the bullpen who all are 7th/8th/9th inning types then that is suddenly a very very good problem to have. Even if you signed TWO guys to 2-3 year long deals, you would still have multiple spots open for 2016/2017/2018 for the minor leaguers.

Not only that, but the Twins are starting for a baseline of "mediocre pen."  We'll need minor leaguers to step up just to offset departures and maintain that over the next few years.

 

If we want to have a serious shot at a good or even excellent pen one of these years, it would probably help to add high-ceiling talent in whatever way possible.  FA, promotions, even trades.  Probably not trying to "fix" Abad...

[Thrylos]

 

Thanks.  One thing to note about Samardzija and Abad, they've both had rather inconsistent results over their whole careers.

 

Samardzija has been really consistent:  lost 13 games each of the last 4 seasons

Edited January 27, 2016 by Thrylos

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would really, really like the chance to find out.

I would have really liked to find out what Rogers in particular could offer our pen last year, but it didn't happen.  It wasn't guys like Bastardo or Lowe blocking that, it was apparently Aaron Thompson, AJ Achter, Logan Darnell, innings for JR Graham, etc.

 

I don't have any particular interest in finding out how much we can "fix" Abad for up to 2 arbitration seasons.

[Loosey]

I'm skeptical on entire season pitch tipping as an excuse for any pitcher.  1) If every team he is facing sees it, how does his own team not notice it since they see him every time he pitches.  2) How was it now addressed once it was discovered.  Basically (from the photos) he may as well have yelling "Curveball" before he threw one.

 

I don't but that as an excuse.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As do most left handed relievers.

 

Non-closer lefties in the pen might be the most combustible position on the whole team. Sipp and Bastardo haven't been models of consistency, simply less inconsistent than many of their peers. Lately.

True, but obviously both Sipp and Bastardo have had more success, more recent success, and better tools/components than Abad.  They're don't offer equivalent upside or downside risk, no matter how much no player is a sure thing.

 

 

I'd much rather take the gamble on the upside of Melotakis and/or Rogers than two low ceiling vets already on the wrong side of 30. A guy on a minor league deal won't make the front office think twice about promoting them, a guy on a two or three year deal would.

 

Low ceiling?  Lowe and Bastardo are both coming off a 10.0 K/9 and solid playoff performances.

 

This team thought twice about promoting guys like Rogers over Aaron Thompson among others last year. I'd rather see a better Plan A now than hope they change their philosophy about when to go to Plan B down the road.

[jharaldson]

 

Could Abad’s struggles in 2015 really be sourced to an abundantly obvious tell?

 

Just out of curiosity, do you have any comps to 2014 when he wasn't doing this pitch tipping?  Any fancy gifs showing that this is a strictly 2015 problem?  Thanks!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Frankly -- and maybe I'm alone on this -- but I enjoy baseball related insight more than payroll related ones.

just a guess, but LEN probably agrees with you too.

 

I really enjoyed the article and hope the Twins are successful, it would just be great if Abad were the supplemental addition and not the centerpiece to the offseason bullpen revival.

 

Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves wrong and the centerpiece is Burdi or maybe there's still a trade in the works.

[DaveW]

 

I'm skeptical on entire season pitch tipping as an excuse for any pitcher.  1) If every team he is facing sees it, how does his own team not notice it since they see him every time he pitches.  2) How was it now addressed once it was discovered.  Basically (from the photos) he may as well have yelling "Curveball" before he threw one.

 

I don't but that as an excuse.

Again this would be the most logical since Abad has overall been a pretty mediocre pitcher. (Other than a luck driven 2014 which was dissected earlier in this thread and where his 2015 was unlucky) Likely he ends up being a mid 4.00's ERA type guy since that is what his FIP and xFIP say he will do.

 

I have a sinking feeling this is all setting up for Duensing to return as well and for him and Abad to "battle it out" for the LOOGY role. That would be abad abad abad thing!

Edited January 27, 2016 by DaveW

[KGB]

Here's the ERA+ over the last 3 years for Abad, Bastardo and Sipp

 

                                   Abad                Bastardo                 SIpp

2013                             114                      163                       81

2014                              238                       95                     115

2015                                97                      129                     203

 

I agree Abad is probably just an average pitcher, but I think we are waisting a lot of time being upset about not spending $7 million on a different average pitcher.

 

My hope would be that they take a hard look at the young internal options and not wait until they are out of options before giving them a chance.

[Blake]

I'll give Neil Allen a chance to turn Abad around.

 

Allen was able to get Santana straightened out last year.

 

I'm pretty sure Allen made a difference with Mike Pelfrey, too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here's the ERA+ over the last 3 years for Abad, Bastardo and Sipp

 

ERA+ is a nice shortcut, but it doesn't tell the whole story, especially for relievers.  Among these three, Abad has seen the lowest leverage work, has the worst K rate, the worst performance vs LHB, etc.  Sipp and Bastardo also had good seasons earlier in their career, and excellent playoff performances too.  (I guess Abad did retire the only batter he faced in the 2014 wild card game. )

 

By ERA+ the last 3 seasons, Duensing has been 103, 118, and 98.  Why not just bring him back too?

 

There's a reason that Sipp and Bastardo got $6 mil for 2016, Duensing is still a FA, and Abad got cut instead of getting an estimated $1.5 mil in arbitration.  Marginal wins are very important to teams that want to compete, which hopefully should include the Twins coming off an 83 win season in a wide open division.

Edited January 27, 2016 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'll give Neil Allen a chance to turn Abad around.

 

Allen was able to get Santana straightened out last year.

 

I'm pretty sure Allen made a difference with Mike Pelfrey, too.

Career 99 ERA+ starter posting a 104 (Santana), or a career 88 ERA+ starter posting a 97 (Pelfrey) doesn't need that complicated of an explanation.

[DaveW]

 

ERA+ is a nice shortcut, but it doesn't tell the whole story, especially for relievers.  Among these three, Abad has seen the lowest leverage work, has the worst K rate, the worst performance vs LHB, etc.  Sipp and Bastardo also had good seasons earlier in their career, and excellent playoff performances too.  (I guess Abad did retire the only batter he faced in the 2014 wild card game. )

 

By ERA+ the last 3 seasons, Duensing has been 103, 118, and 98.  Why not just bring him back too?

 

There's a reason that Sipp and Bastardo got $6 mil for 2016, Duensing is still a FA, and Abad got cut instead of getting an estimated $1.5 mil in arbitration.  Marginal wins are very important to teams that want to compete, which hopefully should include the Twins coming off an 83 win season in a wide open division.

ERA in general is flawed for MRP anyways, often times they get charged for a run that another RP essentially contributes to anyways.

 

Most notably of all, if Abad was anything close to what Bastardo, Sipp etc were, then Oakland wouldn't have cut him loose for 1.5 million.

[Vanimal46]

 

ERA in general is flawed for MRP anyways, often times they get charged for a run that another RP essentially contributes to anyways.

 

Most notably of all, if Abad was anything close to what Bastardo, Sipp etc were, then Oakland wouldn't have cut him loose for 1.5 million.

Blaine Boyer was the king of that last year. Coming into the game with 2 runners on base, all of a sudden bases clearing double. All the earned runs gets credited to the starter, and Blaine Boyer finishes with a flashy 2.5 ERA.... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Blaine Boyer was the king of that last year. Coming into the game with 2 runners on base, all of a sudden bases clearing double. All the earned runs gets credited to the starter, and Blaine Boyer finishes with a flashy 2.5 ERA.... 

I had to look it up, but sure enough, Boyer at 47% inherited runners scored was well above league average (30%).  If those "extra" inherited runners scored were added to his ERA, he'd be up to 3.32 ERA.  Oh, and if he had the same percentage of "unearned" runs allowed as other Twins pitchers, he'd be up to 3.88 ERA (~107 ERA+ rather than his actual 167).

 

Still, I don't think that's the reason Boyer is out of a job so far this winter.  It's the fact that even when he has performed decently the past 2 years, his teams still haven't really trusted him in an important role for an extended period.  That feels a lot like Abad's upside here too.

Edited January 27, 2016 by spycake

[Pius Jefferson]

I think it's pretty obvious that the Twins are putting together a 'just good enough' bullpen with the power-arms in the minors eventually being the foundation of a good bullpen. The concern is all but one of those guys performed at or above expectations last year so putting all your cards in unproven talent is a risky move.

[jimmer]

 

I think it's pretty obvious that the Twins are putting together a 'just good enough' bullpen...

along with attempting to put together a 'just good enough' offense, 'just good enough' defense, and 'just good enough' rotation.

 

Just got to ask ourselves, good enough for what, exactly?

Edited January 27, 2016 by jimmer

[Pius Jefferson]

 

along with attempting to put together a 'just good enough' offense, 'just good enough' defense, and 'just good enough' rotation.

 

Just got to ask ourselves, good enough for what, exactly?

 

Similar record to last season Depending on how things play out maybe contending for that second wildcard spot going into the last week of the season.

[magiklair]

Kind of sounds like some excuse by the twins. We'll say he's tipping his pitches. Hopefully he can return to the prior years performance. It couldn't be that his fastbal 2 mph slower. Could it?

Edited February 1, 2016 by magiklair

[jimmer]

 

Similar record to last season Depending on how things play out maybe contending for that second wildcard spot going into the last week of the season.

Not sure we should be counting of the same amount of wins getting us near a W Card.  Probably should also remember that this team, while winning 83 games last year, wasn't really a team with the talent/performance to win 83 games.  They outplayed their BaseRuns by over 10 games and their Pythag by 2.  Advantageous sequencing which I loved but wouldn't expect to repeat.

 

So far, they haven't improved the rotation or the bullpen and perhaps not even the lineup/defense.  

Edited January 27, 2016 by jimmer

[ashbury]

I'm skeptical on entire season pitch tipping as an excuse for any pitcher. 

Art Mahaffey got saddled with a reputation for pitch tipping. It probably irked him - "it was one game in Spring Training!" he surely would tell anyone who would listen, but I'm just guessing about that. Source below. Since it was early 1960s, maybe not totally relevant to this discussion.

 

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=888&dat=19630313&id=85BPAAAAIBAJ&sjid=KVIDAAAAIBAJ&pg=7272,1076885&hl=en

[Blake]

 

Career 99 ERA+ starter posting a 104 (Santana), or a career 88 ERA+ starter posting a 97 (Pelfrey) doesn't need that complicated of an explanation.

Sigh.

 

Before all star break, Pelfrey was a difference maker and was the staff ace. After all star, something went wrong, no idea what.

 

After Santana came back from suspension, he wasn't making it through the first couple of innings until Allen spotted that Santana was falling off to one side of the mound. Once that got straightened out, Santana was good to very good.

 

So, yes, you need to explain a little better, because the over-all numbers do not reflect what happened during the season.

 

(great, I'm defending the front office not signing at least a second echelon reliever)

[jimmer]

Pelfrey had a better FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9 in the 2nd half last year than he did in the 1st half.  The difference might have been the huge jump in BABIP.

[Pius Jefferson]

 

Not sure we should be counting of the same amount of wins getting us near a W Card.  Probably should also remember that this team, while winning 83 games last year, wasn't really a team with the talent/performance to win 83 games.  They outplayed their BaseRuns by over 10 games and their Pythag by 2.  Advantageous sequencing which I loved but wouldn't expect to repeat.

 

So far, they haven't improved the rotation or the bullpen and perhaps not even the lineup/defense.  

 

I'm certainly not expecting a repeat of next season. I have the win total around 78 or 79 this year. If the young players make real progress including the bullpen that my not be the worst thing for the future. 

[beckmt]

You can make statistics tell you anything you want.  I would like to believe that the Twins will get 3-4 of their younger relievers up this year.  I believe Pressly will be here at some time and also maybe Graham.  After that you have Chargois, Burdi, Corey Williams, and Mason M(won't try to spell it).  There also may be others (Rogers and a couple of less heralded pitchers).  This site talks about blocked players all the time and then totally ignores this for the bullpen.  These young pitchers bring serious gas, and I hope they will be allowed to use it here.  Also don't forget Meyer who may yet figure things out.  That is about 8 pitchers for the 3 - 4 spots.  I would expect some of them to work out.

[Boom Boom]

I've seen all I need to from Graham and Pressly. The Twins don't seem to be big believers themselves in Tonkin, or he would have stuck on the roster by now. Tonkin reminds me of Anthony Slama in that regard. Then you have Meyer, whose professional career is at a serious crossroads.

 

If the Twins want to go with internal options to fill the bullpen, I can get behind that. It just seems to me like they could kick away half a season with their suspect relievers until they get around to the real prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You can make statistics tell you anything you want.  I would like to believe that the Twins will get 3-4 of their younger relievers up this year.  I believe Pressly will be here at some time and also maybe Graham.  After that you have Chargois, Burdi, Corey Williams, and Mason M(won't try to spell it).  There also may be others (Rogers and a couple of less heralded pitchers).  This site talks about blocked players all the time and then totally ignores this for the bullpen.  These young pitchers bring serious gas, and I hope they will be allowed to use it here.  Also don't forget Meyer who may yet figure things out.  That is about 8 pitchers for the 3 - 4 spots.  I would expect some of them to work out.

 

Then why were none of them up last year (Rogers, for example) if that was the plan? I'm all for that plan, if they implement it. But we all know the first 2 months, they'll go with the veterans. That's 1/3 of the season. Then they'll explain that we can't expect the young guys to be good right away, that's another month gone where they don't trust them and use them in the highest leverage situation. That's half the year, of not really putting their money where their mouth is.

 

Either play the young guys, and let them fail and learn, or don't. But all this half way stuff doesn't work.