Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 6 (11-15)

[Seth Stohs]

Today, my preliminary Top 50 Minnesota Twins Prospect countdown continues today with numbers 11 through 15. This group contains a couple of young, talented shortstops with room to grow. It also contains a couple of hard-throwing relievers and a southpaw with big upside coming back from major surgery. As always, please feel free to discuss these prospects in the comments below.Previous installments of this prospect ranking:

· Part 1 (41-50)

· Part 2 (31-40)

· Part 3 (26-30)

· Part 4 (21-25)

· Part 5 (16-20)

 

As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

 

Top Prospects 11-15

 

 

#15 – Engelb Vielma - 22 – SS – Ft. Myers Miracle

 

Vielma was signed by the Twins out of Venezuela in September of 2011. He’s listed at 5-11 and 150 pounds, though he might be up to 155 pounds. He spent 2012 in the Dominican Summer League. In 2013, he played 42 games in the GCL and ended his season with six games in Elizabethton. Despite the lack of Appy League time, he began the 2014 season in Cedar Rapids. In 112 games, he hit .266/.313/.323 (.636) with 13 doubles, four triples and a home run. He moved up to Ft. Myers for the 2015 season. In 120 games, he hit .270/.321/.306 (.627) with nine doubles, two triples and one home run. Over his final 90 games, he hit .298/.357/.329 (.686). Vielma has good speed. In 2015, he stole 35 bases in 47 attempts. He is a singles hitter who will need to gain strength to hit enough in the big leagues. However, it is his glove that gets him noticed. He has very good range and a strong arm. He will likely move up to Chattanooga for the 2015 season.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A

 

 

#14 – Wander Javier - 16 – SS – Did Not Play

 

The Twins signed Javier out of the Dominican Republic for $4 million, a number over their international slot figure. It’s also the highest amount that the Twins have paid an international free agent from the Caribbean, topping the $3.15 million they signed Miguel Sano for. At 6-0 and 165 pounds, he has room to grow, gaining strength and speed. Most believe that he will be able to stick at shortstop though, as he is likely six years from the big leagues, a lot can happen. Though many believe his swing is long now, he could develop into an above average hitter with some power. It is likely the Twins will have him follow the same path as other top signings from the Dominican, such as Sano, Jorge Polanco, and Amaurys Minier. They began their first seasons in the Dominican Summer League but came to the States in time to play for the GCL Twins.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A

 

#13 – Alex Meyer - 25 – RHP – Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins

 

A year ago at this time, Meyer was coming off of a solid season as a starter in Rochester. To say 2015 was disappointing for Meyer is likely a huge understatement. He struggled in spring training. Then he couldn’t get many out as a starter early in the season for the Red Wings and was moved to the bullpen. As he was starting to pitch well, he was called up to the Twins and his two appearances did not go well at all. He was optioned back to Rochester and finished the season by pitching pretty well over the final six weeks. So there is the set up. The reality is that Alex Meyer still has all of the tools and the pitches that could make him a very good pitcher in the big leagues. Most likely, that will now happen out of the bullpen. However, he still throws very hard (upper-90s), has a very good slider, a bit of a change and the ability to miss bats. His primary problem in 2015, and years prior, was control, both in and outside the strike zone. However, in the latter part of 2015, control was not as much of an issue as it had been in previous years, so it’s very possible he comes back in spring training ready to contribute in the big leagues. Or, if he begins in Rochester and does well there, he could be brought up fairly early in the season. He has tremendous makeup and works hard. He’s got good perspective and it would be silly to discount his potential.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (6), 2014 (3), 2013 (4)

 

 

#12 – Lewis Thorpe – 19 – LHP – Did Not Pitch

 

Thorpe missed the entire 2015 season after having Tommy John surgery in early April. He had signed with the Twins in July of 2012. He became a big prospect in 2013 when he grew, gained weight and started hitting 94 and 95 on his fastball. He also has a good curve ball and a strong change up. He also went 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA. In 2014, he started the season at extended spring training, but before the short-seasons began, he moved up to Cedar Rapids. In 16 starts there, he went 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA. He walked more than he had in the past (4.5 per nine), but he struck out 10 batters per nine innings despite being nearly four years younger than the average player in the league. It is likely that Thorpe will remain in Ft. Myers following spring training. He could return to game action as early as June. 2016 will be about getting some innings and keeping healthy.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (12), 2014 (10)

 

#11 – JT Chargois – 22 – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Chargois was the Twins second-round pick in 2012 out of Rice University where he was co-closer with Tyler Duffey. Coming into the 2015 season, he had pitched just 16 innings as a professional, all at Elizabethton in 2012. He had elbow problems and the Twins had him rehab throughout the 2013 season only to have Tommy John surgery in mid-September of 2013. He missed the entire 2014 season as well. He did return to the mound during the Instructional League. Everyone was talking about his upper-90s (and occasionally triple digit) fastball. The Twins had him begin the 2015 season in Ft. Myers. In 16 games (15 IP), he posted a 2.40 ERA, walked five and struck out 19. He earned a mid-season promotion to Chattanooga. In 32 games (33 IP), he had a 2.73 ERA, walked 20 and struck out 34. Clearly the control will need to improve, but his big fastball and sharp slider make him very intriguing. They make him an easy choice to add to the 40-man roster in November as well. He will come to big league spring training and probably get a legitimate shot to compete for a bullpen job.

 

Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A

 

So, what do you think of Part 6, Prospects 11-15? On Thursday, we will begin our Top 10 Twins prospects and finish out with the Top 5 on Friday.

 

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[gunnarthor]

Interesting list.  Tough to rank guys like Javier who are only 16 so this feels like a safe spot for now.  I'd probably keep Meyer higher - he was so disappointing that I understand the ranking but he's going to be a major leaguer and while he might not be the ace we dreamed of, he could still be what we all hope Burdi becomes.  I'd probably still have him in the 6-8 range.

 

I have no faith in Vielma until he starts hitting but smarter people seem to like him so that's good.

[DocBauer]

Thorpe and Meyer.

 

With Rosario, Sano, Buxton, May and even Duffey arriving...and the huge seasons by Berrios and Kepler, along with speculation about them...it might be easy to forget about Thorpe and Meyer.

 

Meyer is former top 10, and still haas the big atmosphere and potential. A healthy Thorpe in 2015 would have him also in the top 10. These two are very intriguing, and maybe the top two guys to watch in 2016, story wise.

[jsteve96]

wow we were mad because we didn't think you'd throw javier in.. apologies.. I've heard Vielma has the best glove seen in minors since Simmons so I'm totally good with this ranking, especially his finish. probably woulda had Thorpe up, he's 19 still and already played full season ball. i have him ahead of Stewart for sure. can't wait to see Javier rise as the years go. Thorpe as well

[HitInAPinch]

"Though many believe his swing is long now".  Those people do understand that Javier's just 16, right?  lol

 

Alex Meyer:  I'm a little confused by "Most likely, that will now happen out of the bullpen."  I completely understand the reasons behinds this, but management has been pretty clear the move to the bullpen was to help correct his delivery for a role as a starter.

 

I'm a believer that the Twins should spend more money on International players. 

 

After reading about all the pitchers that had serious arm injuries [another one here] I'm very happy to hear about the return of Chargois. 

[clutterheart]

Man..people here are really high on Vielma...There are lots of light hitting good glove/no bat guys in the minors and I see him being organizational filler.

 

Hopefully you are right and I am wrong

Edited October 27, 2015 by clutterheart

[TRex]

With Meyer, Thorpe and Vielma out of the top-10, I guess that means Burdi made it. I personally would still bet on Meyer over Burdi, but that's splitting hairs.

[tobi0040]

I think you have Meyer about right. We have a pretty good system and it is hard to put a soon to be 26 year old who still struggles with fastball command much higher.  High school, three years of college, and four years of minor league baseball under his belt.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Meyer gets another chance to start this season, but it may be his last.  Lots of upside here.  With maybe the exception of Vielma, each of these guys could be well above average at their positions of play. 

[jokin]

 

With Meyer, Thorpe and Vielma out of the top-10, I guess that means Burdi made it. I personally would still bet on Meyer over Burdi, but that's splitting hairs.

 

 

Uhh, yeah..!  And now BOTH Burdi and Chargois rated above Meyer- ?

 

This makes little sense- Meyer was a Top 100 prospect four years in a row going into 2015 and as high as #14 on the 2015 BP list- unless Seth knows something seriously wrong underlying Meyer's current situation and can't state it publicly.

 

This point is where the intrigue kicks in- as more than one TD writer downgraded Meyer's Twins' top prospect rating- before Spring Training and Meyer's struggles began in 2015- while all but one of the national services kept their rating the same or even kicked Meyer's Top 100 ranking higher.

Edited October 27, 2015 by jokin

[nytwinsfan]

 

"Though many believe his swing is long now".  Those people do understand that Javier's just 16, right?  lol

 

I'm a believer that the Twins should spend more money on International players. 

Me too, but I think they should be strategic about it, which is what they have been. Sometimes they go big (Sano, Javier) and other times they spread it out over a number of good, but less high-profile picks (Polanco, Diaz, Palacios, Vielma, Thorpe).  It totally depends on the scenario. If there is one year to go big, however, it is probably this ucoming one. There are at least four very good reasons to do so this year, as opposed to previous years: (1) the Twins will have a much smaller cap compared to the previous four or five years, so going over the cap gives them marginally more than it would have in past years; (2) this year's international crop of players is supposed to be one of the best in years; (3) many of the biggest spenders, such as the Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees will not be involved in the big signings since they are limited to $300 K; (4) an international draft may be coming soon, which will blow up the system. While there might (would likely?) still be penalties for those teams that went over the previous year in an international draft, this injects an uncertainty into what those penalties are, and just how severe they will be.  Here is the argument for spending big in the international market this year in greater length:  http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2016-year-break-international-bonus-pool/

 

I hope the Twins go huge this July. This is their chance.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm a believer that the Twins should spend more money on International players. 

 

Regarding International Players, in signing Wander Javier for $4 million, they went over their limit... Not sure how much more they could do without some negative effects.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Man..people here are really high on Vielma...There are lots of light hitting good glove/no bat guys in the minors and I see him being organizational filler.

 

Hopefully you are right and I am wrong

 

If he could hit more, he'd be a top 8 type of guy... he'll never hit for any power, but if he can continue to grow and hit a few doubles, his defense will make him a big leaguer. 

[Monkeypaws]

Wow, don't get the Vielma comments. Guy doesn't have power, but he has speed and appears to be able to get on base. .266-.270 is a decent BA. He's been a year and a half younger than league average the last two years and held his own.

 

If the defense is as adversised, he'd be an ideal 9 hitter who could get the ball rolling for the top of the order. 

 

BTW, the only Miracle regular who had a higher batting average than Vielma was Alex Swim. And Vielma was their youngest hitter.

 

Looks like some good potential to me.

[Mike Sixel]

Javier better be a great prospect, they likely won't sign any more than him this year, or they'd suffer next year (which, you know, would be nice if they went all in with their money, but whatever). Frankly, if he's really not a top 10 guy, they probably wasted their money.

 

Burdi vs Meyer, dang, that's a tough one for me. Frankly, as bad as Meyer was last year, I'd probably rate him higher. He has succeeded at a higher level.

[clutterheart]

 

If he could hit more, he'd be a top 8 type of guy... he'll never hit for any power, but if he can continue to grow and hit a few doubles, his defense will make him a big leaguer. 

 

Maybe his D is good enough to make him a replacement if Gordon gets hurt, but at this point I am having a hard time seeing it.  However, if his D is really that elite then you probably ranked him in the right spot.

[ashbury]

I think Meyer gets another chance to start this season, but it may be his last. 

If Big Pelf had nine lives staying out of the Twins bullpen, you can bet Alex Meyer will get chance after chance too. If not from the Twins then from a succession of other organizations.

[bird]

This list features 3 guys who are trying to climb back into the picture. It reminded me of just how many promising former and present prospects we have that fit in that category: Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Melotakis. Romero, Bard, Pinto, Wimmers, Michael, Chargois, Meyer, and Thorpe. The Twins need 4-5 of these guys to become either part of the future or valuable assets on the trade market.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Uhh, yeah..!  And now BOTH Burdi and Chargois rated above Meyer- ?

 

This makes little sense- Meyer was a Top 100 prospect four years in a row going into 2015 and as high as #14 on the 2015 BP list- unless Seth knows something seriously wrong underlying Meyer's current situation and can't state it publicly.

 

This point is where the intrigue kicks in- as more than one TD writer downgraded Meyer's Twins' top prospect rating- before Spring Training and Meyer's struggles began in 2015- while all but one of the national services kept their rating the same or even kicked Meyer's Top 100 ranking higher.

 

they're all within a small range of about 5-6 prospect rankings spots, so there's not really a significant difference. They all throw hard. They all have sliders. They all have struggled with their control. They all have the ability to be dominant relief pitchers. 

 

As those who have followed my prospect rankings for the last decade, I don't usually rank relief pitchers real high... So, to have these three guys this high is a positive for all three of them.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Javier better be a great prospect, they likely won't sign any more than him this year, or they'd suffer next year (which, you know, would be nice if they went all in with their money, but whatever). Frankly, if he's really not a top 10 guy, they probably wasted their money.

 

There's not much more uncertain in baseball than international signings. Sano is one who appears to have made it, but most of the international guys who have signed for more than $3 million haven't made it. So there are no guarantees with any of them. See Michael Ynoa (brother of Twins minor leaguer Huascar Ynoa).

 

Javier has all the tools. But for me, I'm combining so many factors. Some  of the guys ahead of him on this list are much closer to the big leagues and are almost certain to be big leaguers. They have higher floors. Javier has as high a ceiling as the guys you'll see in the top 5 prospects, but his floor is that he may never get to Low A ball. 

 

My assumption is that he'll spend some time in the GCL in 2016 and next year at this time, he'll be a Top 5 guy.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Maybe his D is good enough to make him a replacement if Gordon gets hurt, but at this point I am having a hard time seeing it.  However, if his D is really that elite then you probably ranked him in the right spot.

 

There's a pretty good reason that Vielma is 8-12 places lower (don't want to give too much away) on the prospect ranking than Nick Gordon. 

[jokin]

 

they're all within a small range of about 5-6 prospect rankings spots, so there's not really a significant difference. They all throw hard. They all have sliders. They all have struggled with their control. They all have the ability to be dominant relief pitchers. 

 

As those who have followed my prospect rankings for the last decade, I don't usually rank relief pitchers real high... So, to have these three guys this high is a positive for all three of them.

 

 

To reiterate, you are now officially on record with this statement from above:

 

Most likely, that will now happen (for Meyer) out of the bullpen.

 

 

The Twins have not publicly stated that Meyer has permanently been designated as a reliever- it seems more like the opposite is true in their public statements. And to have Meyer considered as such from this point forward- (you do seem "convinced"- for whatever reason(s)- that this is now how the Twins are envisioning that his career path proceeds, right?)-  pretty much means that the trade with Washington has been a disaster, most definitely difficult, if not impossible to get a "positive" takeaway here. By these rankings, Meyer is now behind two guys who have had their own share of struggles, but who only ever projected as RPs.

 

 

Again, this was a guy who only 6 months ago was rated as the BP #14-ranked prospect in all of baseball- not #13 on the Twins.

 

I'm not saying your conclusion is necessarily wrong, just that it's hard to accept the stamp of a positive spin on a guy who's ceiling only 6 months ago was said to be as an "Ace".

Edited October 27, 2015 by jokin

[Shane Wahl]

Meyer and Chargois potentially coming out of the bullpen ahead of Perkins is a fantastic possibility. I do think it is time to just stick Meyer in the bullpen and call it a day. It's his best bet anyway.

[Shane Wahl]

Chargois turns 25 in December.

[Badsmerf]

To beat the dead horse... that Vielma ranking. This dude is struggling with getting on base in A ball... I absolutely hate the idea of this guy on a 25-man roster. To me, his glove makes no difference if he can only muster a below .600 OPS. His last stretch of games was good. What is more sustainable .286 BABIP 1st half or.356 BABIP 2nd half with no power? Revere is an example of a guy that has stuck in the MLB despite no power. He was a consistent .300 hitter that had about a .050 ISO, so its possible Vielma works out. I get at this point any contributor would be a good thing, but I think other guys have a better chance than him.

[Shane Wahl]

My Meyer comment above assumes the Twins don't trade multiple starters in the off-season. Like . . . three of them.

[2wins87]

Regarding International Players, in signing Wander Javier for $4 million, they went over their limit... Not sure how much more they could do without some negative effects.

 

They could have traded for more pool money.  I would have liked to see them sign one or two more players for relatively sizeable amounts, but if there really wasn't anyone they thought was worth the money/trade value then I'm not broken up about it.

[mikelink45]

I think that a team like the Twins that need their prospects to succeed need to make a new investment - they need some coach psychologists to work with players like Meyers and Arcia who have the talent, but just can't put it together.  Maybe Torii can work with Arcia - take that back his statement about black latinos makes that a bad idea - but we can find someone who can help.  It is not about the talent, it is more about the head and I hate to waste two potentially good players.

 

Other than Meyer I feel like my reading of Twins Daily minor league reports must be slipping because this group, like the previous has me really scratching my head.  Too many players who have not played, not succeeded, are here in the 11 - 20 list.  The minor league ranking must be really dipping as the majors mines the minors.  But to have Wandy on the list when he has not played is not a prospect listing, but an indictment of the farm system.

 

Looking forward to the top ten and a little more excitement (personally). 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't get your Wandy statement at all. Guys that come into the system the first year, first round picks and HUGE international signings, should be in your top 10. That's why they get the money they do.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

To beat the dead horse... that Vielma ranking. This dude is struggling with getting on base in A ball... I absolutely hate the idea of this guy on a 25-man roster. To me, his glove makes no difference if he can only muster a below .600 OPS. His last stretch of games was good. What is more sustainable .286 BABIP 1st half or.356 BABIP 2nd half with no power? Revere is an example of a guy that has stuck in the MLB despite no power. He was a consistent .300 hitter that had about a .050 ISO, so its possible Vielma works out. I get at this point any contributor would be a good thing, but I think other guys have a better chance than him.

 

Did you miss the part where he's had two straight years of above .600 OPS, despite being a year or more younger than league average?  No one's saying Vielma is a star, but a hoover at short who can avoid being an offensive black hole is a valuable commodity.