Article: What's A Realistic Timeline For Byron Buxton?

[tobi0040]

 

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Hicks has wheels, hands and a cannon.

 

He has a cannon.  I give you that.  He has not looked as fast as this 5 tool guy I have heard about for years.  But his routes and angles have been at times terrible.

 

His DWAR over basically a full season is +.3, and that is at a premium position.  Meaning he probably gets more than +.3 credit simply because he plays CF. His UZR in CF was negative in both 2013 and 2014, -12 in total.

Edited May 6, 2015 by tobi0040

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Hicks' ceiling - I've said it in the prospect handbook after Buxton was drafted - is a poor man's Buxton's ceiling. 

 

I'm guessing Buxton stays in Chattanooga - at a minimum - until mid-June. If he appears ready then, he'll jump straight to the Twins. Like TR says, he needs to force their hand.

 

Hicks may be up before then. He'll play RF and give Hunter more days off/DH days. And he'll play LF whenever a LHP is on the hill. 

 

In a given week:

Buxton plays CF 6 or 7 times a week.

Hicks plays CF 0 or 1, LF 3 or 4, RF 2 or 3.

Arcia plays LF 3 or 4, DH 2 or 3.

Hunter plays RF 4 or 5, DH 1 or 2.

Robinson or Schafer replace Arcia after the 7th in close games, defensively or as pinch-runner.

 

Vargas (or Pinto) DH the rest

[whydidnt]

I don't think there is any reason to worry about promoting Buxton to AAA. Elite prospects tend to skip AAA or are sent there after not quite cutting it in the majors, and that's what I would expect the Twins to do as well. It's really only been a month of good ball at AA, and as much as I want the Twins to be aggressive, I think we need to see at least another 30-45 days of high performance at this level before thinking of moving him to the majors. Considering the time he missed last year, and how rusty/overmatched he looked in Spring Training, it's right for the Twins to let him force their hand, not the other way around.

[Mike Sixel]

June, or next year. They can't burn a year of control on an Elite player by calling him up in September, that would be downright stupid.

 

I'd prefer June, if he hits well until then. No idea why you'd waste a year of control for less than 60-70 games this year.....no idea.

[Winston Smith]

When will he be 25?

[Vanimal46]

 

June, or next year. They can't burn a year of control on an Elite player by calling him up in September, that would be downright stupid.

 

I'd prefer June, if he hits well until then. No idea why you'd waste a year of control for less than 60-70 games this year.....no idea.

 

You love the topic "year of control" don't you? I've read this in multiple forums by you. If you've read and learned from other forums, you would know that a "year of control" is not burned when the rosters expand in September.
 

Now before you change the subject to "cost of control" I'm going to quote stringerbell's reply from your comment in another thread.

 

"Year of cost control.Yes, if Buxton were recalled before the All-Star break, it is possible that he would be eligible to be a "Super 2" and making him arbitration eligible after less than three full seasons.This would make every contract he signs with the Twins more expensive."

I doubt we will ever get to this problem with Buxton. Because if he comes up and is as-advertised, we are going to lock him up in a long-term deal just like Mauer.

 

Bring up Buxton ASAP.
 

[ashbury]

I'm a stats guy by nature. But, I would not make a decision on a young ballplayer by the stats in this case. As others have stated, there is no question about his game where it comes to defense, base running, etc. It comes down to the bat. And with the bat, it comes down to pitch recognition, evaluation of which requires either direct scouting or else access to stats that none of us has (and which amounts to the same as direct scouting).

 

I want to know how well he is recognizing the pitches the pitcher wants him to swing at, which he will see more and more of in the majors, and that he is laying off.

 

I want to know how well he spots the occasional mistake pitch, which he will see fewer and fewer of in the majors, and that he punishes them.

 

I want to know how well he adjusts to tough pitches in the strike zone, which he will see more of in the majors, and that he takes them the other way or otherwise turn into opportunities.

 

It's hard to hit .400 for a period of time without these good things going on. But I still want to know the fundamentals, if I'm the one making a franchise-shaping decision. I do not want to bring him up, and then find out he was feasting in AA on 1-0 meatballs by pitchers still learning their craft.

[tobi0040]

 

I'm a stats guy by nature. But, I would not make a decision on a young ballplayer by the stats in this case. As others have stated, there is no question about his game where it comes to defense, base running, etc. It comes down to the bat. And with the bat, it comes down to pitch recognition, evaluation of which requires either direct scouting or else access to stats that none of us has (and which amounts to the same as direct scouting).

 

I want to know how well he is recognizing the pitches the pitcher wants him to swing at, which he will see more and more of in the majors, and that he is laying off.

 

I want to know how well he spots the occasional mistake pitch, which he will see fewer and fewer of in the majors, and that he punishes them.

 

I want to know how well he adjusts to tough pitches in the strike zone, which he will see more of in the majors, and that he takes them the other way or otherwise turn into opportunities.

 

It's hard to hit .400 for a period of time without these good things going on. But I still want to know the fundamentals, if I'm the one making a franchise-shaping decision. I do not want to bring him up, and then find out he was feasting in AA on 1-0 meatballs by pitchers still learning their craft.

 

I would definitely have a stat guy in AA taking these metrics down.  BA, slugging, etc. by pitch type.  Guessing we already do that.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

June, or next year. They can't burn a year of control on an Elite player by calling him up in September, that would be downright stupid.

 

I'd prefer June, if he hits well until then. No idea why you'd waste a year of control for less than 60-70 games this year.....no idea.

 

That's not how "years" work. Basically, you control a player for six groups of 172 days. If he gets called up in September, you burn through 30-35 of those days. 

 

The significant days are the Super-2 cut (around 2.130), 3 years and 6 years.

[ashbury]

I would definitely have a stat guy in AA taking these metrics down.  BA, slugging, etc. by pitch type.  Guessing we already do that.

Like I said, access to stats we don't have. I thirst for them, but not enough to pay what the subscription would cost.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Now is good. I would have taken Hicks over Rosario, but on the other hand it this is just a two week call up for Arcia then it would be a great time to give Buxton a look at the majors and if he is ready they will not be able to send him down when the time comes.

Buxton isn't on the 40 man roster. With so many outfielders in the org, there's no reason to move him there until he gets a call to Minnesota, hopefully for good.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's not how "years" work. Basically, you control a player for six groups of 172 days. If he gets called up in September, you burn through 30-35 of those days. 

 

The significant days are the Super-2 cut (around 2.130), 3 years and 6 years.

 

I stand corrected......so if they call him up in September, that won't effect which year he's eligible for FA? I stand corrected.

[bird]

Overwhelmingly, the consensus of the commenters on this thread is that Buxton will (or should) be up in a matter of weeks.

 

I wonder what the majority vote would have been four weeks ago. My guess is "a year away." "By September" was a minority vote, don't you think?

 

Crazy game, this baseball.

[ashbury]

I wonder what the majority vote would have been four weeks ago. My guess is "a year away." "By September" was a minority vote, don't you think?

His eye-test performance in March had me thinking "potential bust", even.

 

_{^{/ which is one more bit of evidence that I Am Not A Scout And Never Will Be}}

[dxpavelka]

The Kris Bryant comparisons are a little off base because he's 2 years older with 3 season's of college ball under his belt before those 181 minor league games.  Buxton himself only has 227 games played since he left high school three years ago.

[dxpavelka]

 

Overwhelmingly, the consensus of the commenters on this thread is that Buxton will (or should) be up in a matter of weeks.

 

I wonder what the majority vote would have been four weeks ago. My guess is "a year away." "By September" was a minority vote, don't you think?

 

Crazy game, this baseball.

TWO weeks ago we were ready to send Danny Santana to the minors and now he's gotten his average up to .260. 

[RedBull34]

I really would like to see him by June 19. 

 

Incidentally I have tickets for that game.

[tobi0040]

 

I really would like to see him by June 19. 

 

Incidentally I have tickets for that game.

 

Now that you mention that.  He needs to be up by June 6.

[eLee612]

 

When will he be 25?

 

December 2018

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Overwhelmingly, the consensus of the commenters on this thread is that Buxton will (or should) be up in a matter of weeks.

 

I wonder what the majority vote would have been four weeks ago. My guess is "a year away." "By September" was a minority vote, don't you think?

 

Crazy game, this baseball.

 

Like Seth said, dude has looked like a completely different player at the plate. 

 

Like the Twins brass has said before, it takes him a couple weeks to adjust/knock the rust off. 

 

Dougie Baseball knows how to get the best out of his guys. Just wait til he figures outs Sano...

[Paul Pleiss]

We'll see him when we see him. And that's about as much as I'd care to speculate on the topic. The Twins have a strange history of prospect promotion, featuring both exceptionally long drawn out minor league careers, and way to speedy promotions. Neither of which tends to be what all of us fans want.

 

We'll see him when we see him, and not a moment before.

[Loosey]

 

Like Seth said, dude has looked like a completely different player at the plate. 

 

Like the Twins brass has said before, it takes him a couple weeks to adjust/knock the rust off. 

 

Dougie Baseball knows how to get the best out of his guys. Just wait til he figures outs Sano...

Which is the reason I preferred Dougie Baseball over Molitor as the Twins manager.  I believe with a young team you need to continue teaching and improving your players.  Not that Molitor has done poorly, (he has actually gotten them to overachieve through 25 games) but long-term I think Mientkiewicz  would be a very good manager of young talent.  Again, I have no complaints on Molitor thus far and he is a good teacher of the game as well.  Just my personal opinion.

[Lefty]

I don't know anything about options, but it seems like Hicks has been up so many times in the last few years.  Maybe they didn't want to waste another on Hicks if they're assuming Arcia will be back soon.  Rosario hasn't played as well as Hicks has this spring so far.  Going by numbers, it should have been Hicks.  I don't think he's on Molitor's good list.

 

I can't wait for Buxton to arrive.  I'm really hoping he can get there soon. That place will go nuts if he's even close to an average player.  The future is getting closer!

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I don't know anything about options, but it seems like Hicks has been up so many times in the last few years.  Maybe they didn't want to waste another on Hicks if they're assuming Arcia will be back soon. 

 

"Options" are short for "Optional Years", of which you get three. You can go up and down as many times as a team wants during those years.

 

This is Hicks's third year on optional assignment, whether he's here or there, this is his final year he can be called up/sent down without being exposed to the waiver process.

[markos]

 

That's not how "years" work. Basically, you control a player for six groups of 172 days. If he gets called up in September, you burn through 30-35 of those days. 

 

The significant days are the Super-2 cut (around 2.130), 3 years and 6 years.

I think Mike is right. The way I understand it is that if they call him up in September (or at any point in 2015), his service odometer won't tick past 6.000 until late in the 2021 season, at which point he will become a free agent after that season. However, if they hold off in calling him up until next April 14th (or so), then his service odometer won't tick past 6.000 until early in the 2022 season. So I agree with Mike's logic - it makes no sense (from an asset management standpoint) to exchange 30-35 games this September when he will be a 21-year-old rookie for the entire 2022 season when he will be a 28 and in the prime of his career. 

 

Or am I misunderstanding how the system works as well?

[markos]

It sounds like Carlos Correa is getting promoted to AAA soon - next week or so.

[Nick Nelson]

Derek Wetmore from 1500 ESPN posted a column on this subject today with quotes from Terry Ryan: http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Could_Byron_Buxton_possibly_force_a_midsummer_callup_this_season050615

 

"For me, he's just started to take off down there," Ryan said. "And I think it would be wrong to start putting [a promotion] into the equation this early. Now, if we're talking later in the year, everything being equal, I suspect he would be in that conversation."

 

"He's just not quite to that point where we should consider him, I don't think."

 

If he keeps this up -- an unlikely but not altogether impossible feat, perhaps -- what then?

 

"All right, let's say it's six weeks later and he's pounding it like he has been for the last two weeks, then he's starting to force our hand," Ryan said.

 

So, if you're wondering whether Ryan would at least give consideration to bringing Buxton up before the All-Star break, the answer would appear to be yes.

[jokin]

 

If I were TR I wouldn't set any timeline. He'll be ready when he's ready. That could be in 1 month or it could be in 1 year. As for me, I'd want to see how he does in AAA. We also need to keep in mind that someone will have to come off the 40-man when he's added.

 

I hereby nominate Doug Bernier...

[jokin]

 

Derek Wetmore from 1500 ESPN posted a column on this subject today with quotes from Terry Ryan: http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Could_Byron_Buxton_possibly_force_a_midsummer_callup_this_season050615

 

"For me, he's just started to take off down there," Ryan said. "And I think it would be wrong to start putting [a promotion] into the equation this early. Now, if we're talking later in the year, everything being equal, I suspect he would be in that conversation."

 

"He's just not quite to that point where we should consider him, I don't think."

 

If he keeps this up -- an unlikely but not altogether impossible feat, perhaps -- what then?

 

"All right, let's say it's six weeks later and he's pounding it like he has been for the last two weeks, then he's starting to force our hand," Ryan said.

 

So, if you're wondering whether Ryan would at least give consideration to bringing Buxton up before the All-Star break, the answer would appear to be yes.

 

Here's where the projected Super 2 date might come into consideration?

[jokin]

 

It sounds like Carlos Correa is getting promoted to AAA soon - next week or so.

 

That ought to get Buck's juices flowing....