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whydidnt

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Everything posted by whydidnt

  1. whydidnt
    Biggest reason for me is the Twins have underestimated the impact of making it cost prohibitive for a huge group of baseball fans to watch their games on TV. Out of site, out of mind for me. I used to pickup a game or 2 per week and then watch some of almost every game. That increased my interest in the team, and I'd go to 7-10 games a year. Other reasons - MPLS crime. You can tell me all you want that it's not an issue, but the fact remains one is far more likely to be the target of violent crime in Minneapolis than any other location in the state. - Total cost of attendance. Yes cheap tickets are available, but those are for seats with really poor view of the field. Parking is expensive, Concessions are stupidly overpriced - $12.00 for a beer? Sure they have some cheap leftovers for sale at a stand in left field, but how about you just provide a fair price everywhere, instead of gouging your customers, just because you can. End of the day, the Twins are entertainment, we all have a fixed amount that we can spend on entertainment, and right now they aren't providing enough of a value for the product they are offering, at least for me (and seemingly many others in the area)
  2. whydidnt
    I agree that is probably what's happening, but for me the biggest issue is that half the guys on this list are already 24 or 25 and haven't really sniffed the big leagues yet. They are already past peak prime for prospects, so best case is likely a back of the rotation starter anyway. The Twins have been lacking in front of the rotation starters for so long now, I fear we've all just come to accep that the best we can do is a few 3 or 4s, including the FO.
  3. whydidnt
    At this point, I think both the Twins and Dozier are right to wait to see what happens. I think it’s unlikely Dozier will get the kind of deal Blackmon gets. But that depends upon what happens with the Yankees and Red Sox this year. For Dozier to get that kind of money, one of the big spenders is going have to have a need at 2B. If Torres doesn’t turn in the player the Yankees are expecting, or if Pedroia can’t fully recover, then those two teams may decide it’s worth it to take the plunge. Otherwise, Dozier only has to look at the current 2B of the Yankees, and see what his value was this off-season. Dozier is a better player than Walker, but NOT $90 Million dollars better. We only have to look at the 2016-17 off-season to see how little other teams valued his skill-set, as the best offer the Twins could get was a decent Minor League pitching prospect. This was coming off an all-star season, too. Nothing happened in 2017 to change his value, in my opinion, a bad half of baseball, followed, by a great half. But he is now 2 years older AND doesn’t have a reasonable contract for 2 years. Who is going to give him $100M over 5 years? I just don’t see teams with money and a huge need at 2B, but that’s what it will take.
  4. whydidnt
    I agree, Dozier has been very good again this year. The Twins are going to have a though decision when it comes time to decide on an extension. What will he get on the open market if he has another season like this in 2018??
  5. whydidnt
    He was never available as a 100% salary dump. Revocable waivers are just that. Every team knew that if they put in a claim they'd have to negotiate a deal with both the Tigers and Verlander (because of his no trade clause) within 48 hours or no deal and the Tigers would just sit on him for the remained of the year. Much easier to get a deal done without the time constraints. As other poster pointed out, Bryce Harper also cleared revocable waivers, do you really think we could have just "had him" if we had put in a claim?
  6. whydidnt
    I guess I disagree regarding his bat, but hope I'm wrong. He's got a career OPS of .721 and even this year (his best) it's .756. Pretty average, IMO. Yes, he's young for the level, but I just don't see him developing into more than a .260 hitting guy with little power or speed. There's even been some question about his ability to stay at SS long term. If he can't stay at SS, his value is even lower. I think best case is he's a middle of the pack SS. Yes, better than what we've had, but not a true difference maker. I think when he gets to the majors his plate discipline is going lose some of it's value, as pitchers aren't going to be afraid to pitch to him, due to his lack of power.
  7. whydidnt
    Funny, I was thinking this might be the best time to maximize value for Gordon. I just think his ceiling is so low that the best he's going to be is an average middle IF. Definitely has value, but would be willing to deal him for a shot at the playoffs plus 2 more years. I might consider Gosalves, but think long term he may be more valuable to the Twins. I'm not saying he's necessarily a better prospect, but I tend to lean towards higher risk/reward type guys.
  8. whydidnt
    While I agree, the Twins shouldn't overpay. Verlander has been darn good this year. Right now, he is better than any starter the Twins have. He started slowly, but he has a 3.34 ERA with 109 strikeouts and 37 walks over his last 105 innings (17 starts). The fact he's getting better as the year goes on reduces my concern about age. If his age was really a factor, wouldn't he be slowing down?
  9. whydidnt
    These "compliments" are just passive aggressive ways of Souhan saying Sano is fat and lazy. He throws in some platitudes to soften the message, but the message is the same as it always is with Souhan: Sano is fat, lazy and doesn' t care. The fact that the article is published the day after he goes on the DL with a NON-WEIGHT related injury is all you need to know about his agenda. Everything else is just fluff to get you read his unsubstantiated hatchet job. I have no idea what Souhan gains from stories such as this, I suspect, nothing more tha what every other internet troll wants, and that's attention.
  10. whydidnt
    It's likely 1/2 these guys either re-sign or lose value because of injury or non-performance before they become free agents. That's just how the market works these days. I grow tired of hearing that the Twins can't compete for top-tier free agents. The truth is they can compete, but chose not to. They certainly can't sign 4-5 of these guys, but there isn't any reason they can't or shouldn't try to attract a top tier free agent from time to time.
  11. whydidnt
    Fangraphs published an article a week and a half ago regarding Verlander's value. Their view was that Verlander could fetch a low top 100 prospect plus some filler, if the Tigers picked up enough salary so the other team was only on the hook for about 30M over the next 2 years. So something like Gosalves or Romero + 1 or 2 C level guys? I know just because Fangraphs writes it, doesn't mean that's what the Tigers would consider, but it does help to put things in context I think, and shows what the market will probably support.
  12. whydidnt
    And both Cobb and Lynn are markedly worse this, by FIP or xFIP this year than they were pre-injury, do you want to bank on them returning to pre-injury form? Look, you don't want Verlander, that's fine, just say so. I just disagree that the guys you are suggesting are in his class. Time will tell, I guess.
  13. whydidnt
    You seem to be picking and choosing the time frame and stats to use to compare. Over the last 2 years here is the WAR for all of these pitchers:Verlander 9.8 Lynn 2.9 Cobb 1.0 Chacon 2.4 (2.2 of which is from pitching in SD this year) Verlander's WAR is better this year than any of the guys you mention, and hasn't missed a year lately due to injury. These guys just aren't in his class. They never have been and likely never will be. Lynn has been a nice comback this year, until you look at his underlying stats, he's got a FIP of 4.78 and K/BB of just 2.11. Neither of these points to long term success. See, when we cherry pick our stats, it's very easy to support our own conclusion. I'm not arguing that Verlander is the 2016 version, I'm just saying the guys you are using to support your argument just aren't as good as him.
  14. whydidnt
    Well, the Twins don't have any pitching prospects like Berrios, so I'm not sure how you can make this comparison. None of the Twins current prospects is considered the type of prospect that Berrios was. So dealing one for a Berrios like performance would be a great way to improve the team. I do agree that if we are taking on Verlander's contract, I'm not in favor of unloading several top prospects to complete the deal. The Twins still aren't close enough, and don't have a deep enough prospect list to risk it all at this point.
  15. whydidnt
    And as I said, there is a big gap between your valuation of the players you listed and mine. The only two you mention that I'd rather have over the next 2 years are Arietta and Darvish, and both of them carry as many question marks as Verlander. The guys you mentioned as in his class, just aren't. They are worse now, in some cases they are as old or close to as old, and they don't have the track record Verlander has...you are selling raisins and calling them grapes. One could argue that Cueto and Tanaka fit that same mold as well. Look, this is just wishful talk, but if there was a realistic chance to land Verlander without giving up a pile of prospects, it's probably the best way for the Twins to improve their staff for the immediate future. As much as I'd like to think the Twins could be in the running for Darvish or Arietta, I doubt that will be the case.
  16. whydidnt
    We'll have to disagree on assessment of guys in the same class or better. None of those guys in your top class has either the pedigree, velocity or recent results that Verlander has. Arrietta is the only of the "better" class that has performed better than Verlander this year, and his stats are trending downward. I'm not sure how to define available, but not all of these guys are going to be FA's and I can't see their team shopping them either, especially a guy like Tanaka. We are probably arguing over nothing of import though, the Twins aren't going to take on Verlander's salary, and It would be short sighted to give up a huge prospect haul to get Detroit to cover enough of it to matter.
  17. whydidnt
    I do agree with previous posters that Verlander isn't likely to waive his NT to come to the Twins. However, if we can move past that, he would be a massive upgrade on what we have. However, for me I would only agree to take on all the salary if the return in prospects wasn't too great. I'm not dealing 2-3 of our top prospects and taking on $28M/year. If the Pohlads are willing to spend that king of change on a P, let's go get a FA in the off-season and keep the prospects. I chuckled as I wrote this though. The thought of the Pohlads signing off on $28M for 2 more years just makes me laugh.
  18. whydidnt
    Have to agree with the original post. You don't trade Kintzler and Garcia if you think there is any sort of a chance of making the playoffs. They made the decision on 7/31, I don't think it was the wrong decision, either. So, now let's get on with things and move on from these guys that won't help the Twins next year.
  19. whydidnt
    Yep run differential isn't always great at identifying a teams current record (the wins in the bank still count). But, it is a useful predictor of future records. The thing that strikes me isn't just that this years Twins are negative, but by how far negative they are. Just seems like we are really going to be rowing upstream the rest of the season.
  20. whydidnt
    Well, these are the Twins last 10 2nd round picks: Rotvedt, Burdi, Eades, Melatokis, Chargois, Boer, Goodrum, Bullock, Landendorf, Rams. Based upon that track record, I'm ok giving up a 2nd round pick for a guy who is actually a major league pitcher, with an actual track record. The jury is still out on a few of these recent guys, but they are mostly washed out or injured at this point.
  21. whydidnt
    Yes, this seems like a decent deal. Ynoa has upside, but is a long way away, and isn't excelling. Garcia is better than what we had, which probably isn't saying a lot, but he's an established back end of the rotation guy. I'd much rather see him on the mound than Colon, Gibson or Santiago.
  22. whydidnt
    Thanks for the research. Of course none of those teams was even close to the Twins current -61 differential. Only one was even more than -20, the 05 Padres at -42. So, I don't really think any of them has a differential even in the neighborhood of where the 2017 Twins sit at this point. The Twins will have to outscore their opponents by 40 runs the rest of the way to get to the mean of those teams. That would be an awesome turn around though!
  23. whydidnt
    Right, but an important part of that is accepting that others may have different ways of "enjoying" life. Some might consider it fun to criticize a team they follow, while others think that's a waste of energy and anything but fun. The point is we don't get to decide what each other thinks is fun, so why get worked up about it?
  24. whydidnt
    However, the counter argument is that good teams don't give up 6+ runs a game, or get beat by a large margin on a frequent basis. You are correct that a loss is a loss regardless of the margin, but run differential remains as as one of the tools you can use to help determine if a team's record is supported by the play on the field, and how good the team is. When's the last time a world series team had a run differential similar to what the Twins have this year? (I don't know, so it's a legitimate question I should try to research!)
  25. whydidnt
    Well then, if it was that easy, I wish the Twins had made that deal. I wonder why they didn't? Is there any doubt they need pitching help?
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