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whydidnt

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Everything posted by whydidnt

  1. whydidnt
    My thought exactly. If they would have been aggressive in the off-season, they wouldn't have put themselves in the spot where they had to trade for a middling RP at this point. Heck, even the Twins knew during spring training that the bullpen was a dumpster fire. Instead we get Duensing and Boyer and Thompson and, well, you get the point. Jepsen is fine "middle reliever" but the Twins really could have used a top setup guy to go with him.
  2. whydidnt
    I liked the Meyer-Span trade at the time, for all the reasons previously posted. However, with his recent failings, I really question the Twins ability to develop power pitchers. It seems almost every power type guy in the system either gets hurt or stalls and starts getting worse. Berrios is probably the exception. But, I think the Twins need to look at how they coach, promote, and develop pitchers. Too many power arms seem to regress every year. Why??
  3. whydidnt
    All of what you say may be true, but have nothing to do with the fact that Ryan is practicing Loss Aversion Bias by not dealing for Tulowitzki. By your reasoning, there is also nothing for those on this board to gain by making the deal, since we aren't the ones that will directly benefit (or lose) by ANY move the Twins make or don't make. Seems we've made it through almost 600 posts from people who receive no direct benefit and suffer no consequences from Ryan's moves, yet people still care enough to visit and post their opinion. AND what you say kind of proves my point. Ryan could lose his job by making this trade, so why should regardless of the potential gain? In other words he's more focused on the potential negative than the potential positive.
  4. whydidnt
    The lack of consequences isn't the point. The point is that many people tend to overvalue the potential loss and undervalue the potential gain. In other words they aren't looking at the potential end results from a fair perspective. Their judgement is clouded because they worry more about losing something than gaining something. It's not a character flaw, it's just part of the human make-up. It's been scientifically proven that people do this all the time. I think how Ryan runs the Twins in general reflects this bias.
  5. whydidnt
    I think Terry Ryan, and some of the posters here tend to have "Loss Aversion Bias": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion This is where people prefer to avoid losses rather than attempt to make a gain. Ryan is pretty risk-adverse, and pulling the trigger on a deal for Tulowitzki was frought with potential losses. It's pretty easy to just focus on the potential downside and not consider the potential benefit. Water under the bridge at this point, but for me, if you have a chance to acquire one of the top players at his position without giving up one of your cornerstone building blocks, I'd do it every time. I prefer to look at what may be gained rather than what I'm losing. I'm weird that way, I guess.
  6. whydidnt
    I think that some are seriously undervaluing Reyes at this point. Yes, he's got a poor contract, and is in the decline phase of his career. But he is still one of the better shortstops in the league and has value. He's not like Nolasco, who basically has produced negative value since signing. Guys like this still have value and his contract isn't an albatross - he's only got 2 more years at $22M guaranteed. (Sounds funny to say it that way) so he won't hamstring a team that is trying to win now long term. Yes, not an overwhelming return for Tulo, but I wonder if the Rockies have a 2nd deal on the burner to bring back something else for Reyes. Hard to compare until we see, but the Twins don't really have anyone similar to Reyes that they could/would have included.
  7. whydidnt
    Well, based upon the last 4 years, I'm not too worried about the Twins budget. They have proven over and over again that just because they have money to spend, doesn't mean they will. I think the question is better put: Would you rather have Tulowitizki for the next 5 years or see the Twins keep Gibson and the Pohlad's receive $75M more in profit. For me, I'm going with the better player. When/if the Twins actually run into a true budget problem, I'll worry about that then.
  8. whydidnt
    Wow, I'm really surprised by how many here seem to prefer Gibson to a true Star SS like Tulowitzki. Gibson is the very definition of a mediocre SP. His career K/9 is less than 6, BB/K is under 2. These aren't the numbers of a guy you can't deal. He's been better this year, unless you look at his FIP, and then see it's actually higher than last year. Teams win by having better players than their opponents. A guy like Tulowitzki gives the Twins a better SS for the next 4 years, then most teams they face. Keeping Gibson does not necessarily do that that for the Pitchers. Until you see/hear what the total package to land Tulo is, it's hard to really judge, but I for one can't comprehend how a guy like Gibson is going to be the line in the sand for a player of Tulowitzki's pedigree.
  9. whydidnt
    I'm not disagreeing with you, but the reasons for the later debut are not really relevant to the discussion on the players long term potential. There is a reason Dozier went to college and debuted in the majors at an older age. Doesn't make him a bad player today, just means his upside is likely to be limited (if you compare to players with a similar background).
  10. whydidnt
    I know, but that doesn't really change their debut ages. Guys who debut at age 25 are much less likely to become star players than guys that debut at 22. I'm not complaining about Dozier and like him, I just think that it's good to keep Arcia's age in perspective before trashing his results.
  11. whydidnt
    I should have added to my post-- I don't think the Twins recent hot streak is indicative of how they will finish this year. I still don't think they are going to finish with more than 75 wins. That slant's my view of what to do with Arcia - they need to let him play and hopefully get better. I had the pleasure of witnessing Rosario's 1st pitch HR in person, (And it was fantastic!!) but since then he has looked pretty over matched. I think he needs to be sent down for seasoning once Arcia is ready to return.
  12. whydidnt
    I agree that comparing offensive output of 2B and Corner OF's isn't the way to judge overall talent, but consider this -- when Dozier was Arcia's current age he hadn't even reached the majors yet. I think it's easy to look at Arcia's body of work and get frustrated since he's now in his 3rd season, but he was brought up very young. At his age, you have to give him time to learn on the job. Arica's output through age 24 is infinite compared to Dozier's.
  13. whydidnt
    I don't think there is any reason to worry about promoting Buxton to AAA. Elite prospects tend to skip AAA or are sent there after not quite cutting it in the majors, and that's what I would expect the Twins to do as well. It's really only been a month of good ball at AA, and as much as I want the Twins to be aggressive, I think we need to see at least another 30-45 days of high performance at this level before thinking of moving him to the majors. Considering the time he missed last year, and how rusty/overmatched he looked in Spring Training, it's right for the Twins to let him force their hand, not the other way around.
  14. whydidnt
    The apt comparison is to Trout in 2011. When the Angels called him up in July, 2011, he had about 1/2 season of AA under his belt, which is where Buxton will be then. FWIW, Trout wasn't really very good that first time up in the majors. They sent him down after a couple of weeks, and then recalled him later in the year. He was okay then, but not really a difference maker. I think it would be realistic that is about the best we could hope for out of Buxton this year. Of course, just his glove alone in CF might be a huge boost, but really I think the Twins are smart to let the entire body of work develop as much as possible, without hampering it by holding him back when the time comes.
  15. whydidnt
    I think it's far too easy to be blinded by short term results. After the 1st week of the year, everyone was convinced the Twins were going to lose 100 games. Now, they have a great week and people are talking playoffs. I don't think either scenario fits with how this team is currently built. I think it's pretty easy to look at the Twins results the last couple of years, compare those rosters to the current team and see how this team is pretty comparable. I just don't see enough different to convince myself that by the end of the year they are going to finish with a markedly different record. They'll have some hot streaks and some cold streaks, but in the end are going to end up around 90 losses. The only possible reason things might be different is the change in managers. Gardenhire's teams seemed to really tank in the 2nd half if things weren't going well. I suspect Molitor will have a different outlook on things.
  16. whydidnt
    Players outside of true Superstars don't get fans in the seats. Winning does. One more reason you don't spend $10M on an over the hill OF with questionable defensive skills because you like his "leadership". People aren't going to pay to see Torii Hunter and never have.
  17. whydidnt
    I've been a big fan of Arcia, to this point. However, he seems to be stagnating or regressing. I don't see the improvement I expected out of a young player now in his 3rd season with the big club. Not sure what the issue is, but he just doesn't look like he's improving. He does need to improve, and until Sano gets here, the Twins really need his potential power. They don't really have anyone else on the roster that fills that need.
  18. whydidnt
    I really don't have much patience for this group. If there was some youth that was learning on the job, I would say that we've got to wait to see what we have. This roster though is stuffed with veterans and is basically the same team that lost 90 games last year. Why would I expect things to be any different? Of course, they aren't going to lose 5 out of every 6, but there really isn't anything to be optimistic about. It's just not a very well built team.
  19. whydidnt
    Not great news, that's for sure. I didn't realize the first time suspension was now up to 80 games. That should deter anyone, but think of it this way; If he used it last year to put up better numbers, he got a nice payday, guess not as much of a deterrent as you would think. And, of course the Twins will call up the 28 year old rookie rather than a younger guy. We need to keep the average age of the team as high as possible.
  20. whydidnt
    May 3rd, vs. the White Sox. Likely a home game, and during the day. It would be sooner, but the options to replace him in right are pretty thin. Don't see them going with him in CF and Robinson in RF at any time in the immediate future. EDIT: Looks like 5/3 was previously selected - I'll go with May 2nd for the all the same reasons!
  21. whydidnt
    Whether they were coming up at 22 or 23 misses the point. Meyer has over 200 quality IP between AA - AAA, he led the league in Ks last year. Something not many top prospects get a chance to do, since they are usually promoted. He is 24, going on 25 years old and has little left to prove in the minors. Gibson pitched well at AAA to start 2013, but was "blocked" by several mediocre arms. Think if he could have learned to adjust at the major league level that year - perhaps last year would have been a better season for him. May dominated at AAA last year, he has nothing left to prove there, and after adjusting to the majors showed enough to get a shot this year. If they were blocked by Koufax, J.Santana, Blyleven, Kaat and Morris I understand why they haven't been promoted, but they have been blocked by a bunch of junk. The Twins are slow rolling these guys. I agree that we haven't had enough talent to see if this is part of their philosophy, but you aren't going to convince me that they are holding these guys back for some unknown reason.
  22. whydidnt
    You make a very good point. There haven't been enough "good" guys in the system to draw firm conclusions. However the last 3 guys - Gibson, May and Meyer, that have done pretty well have definitely been more slowly promoted than is typical for most other teams, that's all we have to go on, but it is a small sample size. My frustration is that these guys have done pretty well in the minors but are being blocked by guys that aren't very good and don't have much upside.
  23. whydidnt
    I tend to agree with this, but did you notice in that list of players, only 1 out of 6 is a pitcher, and really there is no guaranty he doesn't get held back until he's "more consistent". It does seem that the Twins are pretty slow at moving pitchers through the system, even college guys, like Meyer who lead AAA in K's are held back. Meanwhile the White Sox move Sale, Reed and Rodon up within months of being drafted and they all excel. Not saying there isn't a gap in talent between these guys, just a huge difference in philosophy on how to teach these guys how to pitch.
  24. whydidnt
    I would have thought that either Hughes, Dozier or Perkins might have had a shot. However, in looking at the bottom 50, not sure who they would displace, I think I'd rather have any of these guys than Matt Carpenter, but don't see too many other guys. Hopefully that will change in the future. However, the lack of star power is one reason I'm not very bullish on the Twins this season.
  25. whydidnt
    Actually, I never said the handling of May and Meyer was the sole reason that I thought the FO was failing. I simply used them as another example of potential failure. And your stance feels a lot like mine - in convincing some folks here that the front office can do no wrong, and since they are baseball professionals they must be right, and I must be wrong. We'll have to agree to disagree on this, but I don't think it's a false binary to say that the Twins have been bad for several years, yet continue to manage their roster in the same manner, somehow wishing for different results. In my mind that means they are doing a poor job and are unwilling to change in an effort to improve. We hear Terry Ryan say that things are going to change, but then we see the same old roster decisions. At what point should they try something different? Do they have to lose 90+ games a dozen years in a row? Really what line has to be crossed?
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