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Earlier this year I wrote about how Luis Arraez is everything Twins fans wanted Willians Astudillo to be. It’s fun and cute when a guy never strikes out or takes walks, but there’s a right and wrong way to go about that. Having command of the strike zone is much different (and more beneficial) than having control of it. Eddie Rosario isn’t the contact hitter that has ultimate control of the zone, but he’s absolutely not the guy who commands anything with plate presence either.
A year ago, Rosario posted a career high 3.4 fWAR. He generated walks 5.1% of the time and whiffed 18% of his at bats. The strikeout rate is down to 14.3% this year, but he’s walking just 3.6% of the time. It’s really not in the strikeout or free pass categories that Rosario will see his downfall, however. When swinging the bat this year he’s chasing 46.5% of the time (42.9% in 2018). The swinging strike rate is a career low (11.6%) and the contact rate is a career high (80.3%). What all of that adds up to is a very Astudillo-esque contact with suboptimal outcomes.
The good news is that the Puerto Rican isn’t far off from a massive shift in outcomes. With a career best hard-hit rate (37.7%) and solid trajectory outcomes, the ball has opportunity to fly. We saw evidence of this during the first two months of the season in which Eddie blasted 17 dingers in 54 games with a .548 SLG. As opposing pitchers have asserted their will on him however, the results have taken a step backwards.
Since June 1st Rosario owns a .285/.302/.457 slash line. The average is hardly an issue because the hard hit and contact rates are still strong. Offering at pitches he’s able to do little damage with though, much production is left on the table and hurlers are significantly less worried about pitching to him. In these last 61 games he has just a .457 SLG and .759 OPS with 10 long balls. Expanding his strike zone further than he ever has, there’s less ability to drive or elevate the baseball beyond anything but station to station outcomes.
Through the end of May Rosario was chasing pitches out of the zone 43% of the time. Since then he’s jumped that number all the way to 49%. What was once a hard-hit rate of over 40% has fallen to 35%. These are drastic swings, but for a guy that has a very singular expected outcome at the dish, they are making a massive impact. It’s not rocket science to assume that squared up baseballs are the easiest to drive and squaring up pitches off the plate is a difficult ask. It’s not that the process has changed as much as it is that Rosario is allowing the opposition to dictate results with his less than ideal inputs.
For the Twins there’s a negative impact here as well. In 110 starts this season Rosario has batted cleanup a whopping 105 times. Put in position to bat with men on base during 244 different plate appearances, he’s got just a .788 OPS. Certainly the .905 OPS with runners in scoring position is good to see, but what isn’t capitalized on could be equally important. A .465 SLG from your cleanup hitter, in a lineup as potent as the Twins is seems like a missed opportunity. Cleanup hitters this season own a .486 SLG (.827 OPS) and you’d think Minnesota could be pacing that group.
If I were Rocco Baldelli there’d be two clear paths to go down regarding Eddie Rosario. One would be continuing to have James Rowson work on homing in on a stronger command of the zone with the lefty. This is probably a bit lofty given his big-league track record thus far, but the production increasing substantially doesn’t require a significant shift. The alternative is allowing Rosario to be the same hitter he is right now but doing so out of a different lineup spot. A guy offering little to no on-base presence can’t hit in the top three but batting him sixth could make a good deal of sense. That bat definitely plays, just not in the role it’s currently cast.
Lineup optimization is a difficult task given the lack of any one “right” answer. A group as good as the Twins should efficiently push for every extra run that their starting nine will provide them. Right now, there’s opportunity to exploit what’s being left on the table, and finding a way to maximize that is a must.







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