Rundown: On Trading Kepler, DRC+, LeMahieu and More

I am not in favor of trading Kepler at this point. Sure the Twins have holes to fill, but trading Kepler would create another one. The outfield has too many question marks. Buxton is not reliable with a combination of being ineffective or hurt. Cave looks adequate, but his track record of success is too short to count on him. Other options presently on the roster do not look to be a better alternative. In a year or slightly longer, room will be needed for Kirilloff, but we are not to that point yet. I have a hunch, Kepler will improve, so trading him now could be a mistake. In a year his trade value will be higher, IMO. Of course I could be wrong about that.

Boom. As I've been advocating for...sign Lemahieu. Also, I would absolutely keep Kepler through his Arb years. Concentrate on the Bullpen this off season (after signing the above mentioned.) With Cleveland's sell off, the iron is starting to get hot enough to strike now. That's not to say the Twins are just a Bullpen away from making an extended run in the Playoffs in 2019, but, there's a growing chance they can win the Division in 2019. So maybe they're a Bullpen away from winning the Division? Turn 50% of those walk-off losses in 2018 into wins and they have a winning record in spite of poor years from Sano, Buxton, etc. Sign Lemahieu. Sign some legitimate Bullpen arms and make a real go at winning the Central now!

Trading Kepler will be big mistake in my mind because I think he's on verge of becoming a superstar. The numbers say he had underperformed but I think like what was written above if he continues hit ball hard that his numbers are going to improve dramatically. Second he did improve last year he showed he could hit left hand pitching. I think he just got few little things to clean up hitting and also get to better pitch recognition to what he's going to hit at his at bats. Defensively he is ideal player he plays above average center field if needed, very good right field defender and has proven he could also play first base if needed. These are what teams are looking for players that have flexibility and can hit both for power and hits, and has speed to run the bases. He still is 25 years old which means were going to trade a player that is just coming into his prime again for some future prospects time has come for the Twins to decide to keep some of their quality players and start building around them. Yes there are risks in keeping developing players but we sure have proven in past few years going out on free agent market it hard to find quality players unless your willing to pay premium price to acquire them. This Front office better start making some investment in the future because to keep waiting for prospects to develop and arrive all at same time may never come. It requires signing your quality players to longer term deals and continue to add with from your prospects to build a winner. 

Having missed out on Patrick Corbin,

The Twins are reaching out to

Contact former Twin pitcher, Ray Corbin

and get him signed for 2019.

Count me among those of you who do not want to trade Kepler.  Would I, yes.  But to pry him away I would want a top return, a return that includes one very good young player who will fill one of the needs for the Twins in 2019.

I have always expected that it would take a bit longer because of his background coming out of Germany.  I still believe that he has the ability to be one of the best, if not the best, of this young group...Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Polanco and Sano.  I expect him to take another step forward this year and can be a critical part of the 2019 Central Division championship Twins.

Go get DJ.

Tom, I don't know why, but I have an irrational love of Max Kepler....maybe it's Hicks and Gomez memories, but I just can't bring myself to trade a good glove, potential plus hitting outfielder (who could play some first too)..... guess I'll need to see more of Kirilloff to push me one way or the other ....

All I know is that any player who is concerned with his DRC+ in the least is doomed to failure. The best players are still the ones with the best "old school" stats. Kepler is exactly the player you see when you watch any Twins game and there is no reason to expect him to improve very much. He will never be a star but should have a long career in the major leagues and certainly not all with the Twins.

Personally, I give Kepler one more shot to break out.  I realize another status quo season for him also diminishes any value he may have in trade.  I just hate to give up on his obvious physical potential.  My hope is that he, along with a few others on the roster will finally get the information or instruction and exhibit the patience and discipline to start maximizing every at bat.  In Kepler's case, I think it's clear that the swing is there.  Like so many of our young Twins, I think his biggest problem is simply swinging at the wrong pitches leading to unfavorable hitting counts. 

I'm baffled by the over-love for Cave. He's a useful piece and we got him for a lottery ticket pitcher, but he profiles like a 4th OF. Yes, he hit well this season, but dude had a .363 BABIP. Do we really think he's going to be hitting balls hard enough consistently enough to sustain that? he's got a grand total of 300 PAs in the majors; are we sure he is who we think/hope he is?

It's very possible Kepler never hits enough to be a great corner OF. Maybe his best position is CF, or maybe he's a 4th OF who is ok at the plate, great defensively, and can play all three spots. But it's hard to see Cave as being the answer with any confidence.

(maybe Kiriloff is in another year)

If Kepler and Cave received the same # of ABs this year, (A) who hits more HRs, and ( who plays better defense? Just food for thought...

I hope I'm not derailing the conversation too much, but I'd like to share some random thoughts on some of the sabermetrics.

I love Sabermetrics, but I've got one problem with the varying WAR stats, specifically the differences between bWAR, fWAR, and WARP.  It doesn't bother me that the numbers themselves are different between the three, but when I look at the calculations it bothers me that the three seem to take very different fundamental approaches to the concept of Wins Above Replacement.

When I think of WAR, I typically think of it as a "what actually happened" stat, as opposed to a stat that's intended to be predictive of future success.  Take ERA vs FIP and xFIP.  ERA is what actually happened, where FIP and especially xFIP are typically more predictive than ERA.  I always think of WAR as more like ERA than xFIP.  However, the three WARs all approach this differently.  To me they seem to be on a progession from bWAR to fWAR to WARP going from most "what actually happened" to most predictive.  A stat like DRC+ sounds really cool and really predictive, but I don't feel like it should be included in a WAR calculation.  I guess what I'd really like is two stats: WAR and XWAR, where WAR would use more "what actually happened" stats, and XWAR would use more predictive stats.

Kepler having WARP of 3.6, and being only 0.2 behind Rosario is preposterous if WARP is supposed to be a representation of what actually happened, but if it's meant to a predictive or expected measure, then it makes  a lot more sense, and it's incumbent on the talent evaluators to decide whether there is something about Kepler that makes him consistently underperform expected stats.  Take Ricky Nolasco - if I recall correctly he very consistently underperforms his xFIP.  Kepler seems to have really low BABIPs despite his LD%'s.  Is there something about him that keeps his BABIP in the toilet, or is he going to break out?

If Kirilloff was banging on the door this spring, I'd be more open to trading Kepler, who I still think is on the verge of big things.

But if his replacement comes from the pool of Cave, Wade, Granite, and Reed, then count me out.

As it stands now, if Buxton flames out again, you've got Rosario, Cave, and Kepler, which isn't ideal, but you could get by with it.

But if you trade Kepler, are you really ready to roll with Rosario, Cave, and Granite?

What if Cave turns back into a pumpkin? Rosario, Granite, Wade? Can you trust Granite after a bad/wasted year? Can you trust Wade to make the jump and produce? Do you trust that Michael Reed is anything more than a AAAA player?

Unless there's a better backup plan than any of those four, or the return in a Kepler trade is too good to pass down, I'm passing. 

Trade Kepler. Sign McCutcheon. Kepler, I'm not bullish on a breakout.

There are two posters in here saying that Kepler is easily replaceable, and suggest trading him for a front of the rotation pitcher.

Why on earth would a team trade us front line pitching, the second hardest position to fill in all of sports, for such an easily replaceable player??

You also forget that Rooker may be in the mix.

The Twins could possibly trade Rosario and get more. We see what Eddie can do. He might keep doing it. But is he elite?

Kepler is someone a team would take a flyer on (similar the Yankees with Hocks - who still isn't the 4-tool superstar we all thought he might be when drafted). 

The bigger question is do we double-down and sign him longer term and hope he hits for a bit higher average with the same home runs and defense skills, as well as maybe play a bit of first, or let it be someone else's problem and be amd about the return.

It's totally legal in the rule book to sign another OF if Kepler is traded.

Having the ability to do so and actually doing so are two different things.

Count me as one of those who don't think Kepler has reached his potential yet. And with that in mind, I don't think what we'd get for him in a trade would be nearly enough to satisfy the team or the fans. Imagine another Aaron Hicks type trade. Ugh ...  no thanks. Let's keep him for now.

Too me the funniest part of much of this discussion is our (and I say our, because I include myself in this) reactions when we feel that a player we really like or love to follow is disparaged.

We become invested these guys and young men.   Speaking for myself, I've felt this way since I was a little kid watching the games or listening on the radio, and then snagging the sports section the next day to pour over the baseball section and listed stat sheets and box scores.   At one point I could tell you the active roster and the main stats for every team in the majors (stat geek!)   Heck, I still do that today... although it's a lot more high tech and in real time , annnnd perhaps a little less obsessive about the numbers.

So... at least for me, I get the "over love" for certain players.   It's in our baseball DNA since we were kids.   These were our heroes, our idols and while most of us really don't use those words to describe them anymore (at least not in public ), the emotional response lingers.

I'll   eventually get to a point... maybe.

Kepler for example.   I personally think he's a fantastic athlete, and has the mental makeup and physical tools to be an exceptional baseball player.   Will he ever fully realize that potential???   I honestly don't know, and in many ways (IMHO) it isn't really that important.   Baseball, like life, isn't about the destination.   It's about the journey, the steps and stops you take along the way.

So, if Kepler (or Cave, or any of the others don't meet great success, are "league average" or just "meh"), I'll be disappointed but ultimately ok with it.   There will be other players who come along and other players to root for.

We should all relax some, and enjoy the journey.

Merry Christmas everyone !   

And that's the problem, Vanimal.  This new FO seems totally adverse to trades.  Other than the Odorizzi transaction, in which the Rays were clearly in a dumping mode, this FO has shown no imagination or risk taking to engage in meaningful trades - IN TWO FULL YEARS!  Why is that?

This offseason would be a good time to change this pattern, given the improvement in the Minor League system, together with a dearth of FA building blocks in the Twins price range(that's a whole other column, btw).  To date, the FO this offseason has followed a pattern of picking up DFA players on one year contracts in the hopes they rebound to previous heights.  Not a bad strategy if you have some bona fide lineup studs to build around.  That not being the case, the Twins are obviously counting on rebounds from their tattered core plus these new one year signees.  Isn't this like drawing to an inside straight?  What it isn't, is a recipe for moving into playoff contention.

Granted, the offseason isn't over.  I fully expect the Twins to add a couple of bullpen options and maybe an OF/DH type and/or a #4 or #5 rotation filler, but will any of this really move the needle in 2019?  Very, very doubtful and with the division seemingl;y more competitive, together with the Twins' payroll space and quantity of tradable minor leaguers, this conservatism on the part of Falvine is truly inexplicable.

It sure would be nice to see some transparency by ownership and Falvey what their long range plan is here because so far it seems they have none - other than muddling thru.