Mike Pelfrey

[Mr. Brooks]

Since coming back from the disabled list in 11 games Pelfrey has a 3.45 ERA, I'm not sure why people think that is some bizarre fluke or whatever.

 

Maybe because 11 games is a pretty small sample size. Wouldn't you rather take a career worth of data over 11 games?

[Mike Sixel]

Actually,

 

Kevin Correia » Graphs » Comparison » All Season » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

 

KC and Pelfrey are pretty much the same pitcher, though oddly their ERA cycles appear to be on exact opposite up and down cycles.....remember when looking at the graph that Pelfrey did not pitch in 2012 really, so that ERA is not real.

[ThePuck]

With a very poor first half of the season, how does fangraphs have him currently at 1.6 wins above replacement?

 

Probably cause FIP is a major component of WAR for Fangraphs (not the only component) and his FIP is 4.14.

 

'In order to match up with the theory behind WAR for position players, FanGraphs has traditionally used a context-neutral statistic (Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)) in order to express a pitcher’s value to their team.'

 

Some people have expressed a dislike for FIP, so it should be hard for them to argue against FIP in debates but the use Fangraphs WAR stat for pitchers to help their point in other debates.

[Rosterman]

A two-year deal, but at what price. I'm sure his agent will be looking for at least a multi (2) year deal now with an option for a third. Will he get that? I suspect he'll get a one year with a buyout option for a second for sure. And he'll command better than $5 million, but less than $8 million.

 

It was sure nice of the Twins to pay him a more than decent salary in his Tommy John recovery year. But with the results so far, I would've almost passed and spent the money on signing him for the next two seasons and let him showcase himself with another team, unless you do have a good option of signing him.

 

My concern is: is there a demand for him? I didn't hear alot about suitors during the trade deadline, and I would be interested to know if he was waiver claimed, and if he was, why the Twins didn't just let him go -- unless they are trying to get him for next year and...too many questions.

 

The biggest question us fans need to live with: do we want the Twins to spend budget for the sake of spending budget, or do we want to have 2014 be a total rebuilding year and can we live with the ownership paying back their own debt for the stadium quickly and living with lots of empty seats. I would like to think that having one of the worst major league teams in baseball is not a plus when you are hosting the all-star game.

[nicksaviking]

I'd take Pelfrey over must of the rubbish currently the Twins have to offer. But that isn't the scenario. Pelfrey is the only free agent out of the garbage bag called the Twins rotation. Is Pelfrey better than Worley currently? Yes. But that's not the point, the Twins need a better class of pitcher. Pelfrey is not a better class of pitcher, he's simply one of the better students in the GED class that the Twins roll out every year.

 

He throws hard but doesn't strike anyone out. Not interested. Most quality teams suffer only one or two starters who aren't able to put up a 7.0 K/9. The Twins, well, we all know the situation. Starting now, they need to exclusively sign starters who can at least be league average when it comes to putting the ball in the catchers glove as opposed to the gloves of the terrible defenders behind them. Hard to do? Tough, get it done just like nearly every other team, or find someone else who can.

[70charger]

So...you don't want to resign the guy who has been pitching much better as of late (after coming back really, really early after TJS) yet you want to give Worley a rotation spot based on what again??

 

If you punch yourself in the face enough, it starts to make sense.

[nicksaviking]

If you punch yourself in the face enough, it starts to make sense.

 

I don't agree that Pelfrey has been a disaster, well at least not lately, but it's not a question about Pelfrey replacing Worley or Deduno or whoever else from the Twins roster. It's a question about signing Pelfrey instead of acquiring external options A, B or C.

[Brandon]

Pelfry added a pitch in 2012 a cutter to go with hius sinker. the results of that added pitch was a 19 inning sample size plus this year. If the cutter is still good and the sinker is working as he gets the feel back for that pitch he and his experience in the league has grown over time he can be an above average pitcher....look at how much better Lohse has become as he gained experience over the years.

 

Also remember the Twins have a formula to winning games at a minimum cost. that is why we are always clamoring for an ace and why we never feel we are going to win in the post season. see below for the pitching formula again. we only go after aces when we develop them and they come from our system otherwise we go for pitchers in our low cost win formula....I challenge anyone to find a more accurate formula for the type of starting pitcher we go for and why we go for that type of pitcher. Pelfry will be resigned this offseason i can almost guarentee it.

 

Twins formula for FA pitchers is a pitcher capable of throwing 180-200 innings with era around 4.00 K rate around 5-7 per 9 and walk less than 3 per 9 innings. These pitchers are league average and cost much less then an ace or a Sanchez type pitcher. Have that with an above average close to 3.00 bullpen = a score under 4 after 9 innings played on average. with an offense averaging over 4 runs per game = a likely winning scenario more often then not for that starting pitchers turn....multiply times 5 starters = a potential 90 win season. that's how they do it.

 

Examples of FA targets in the past several years.... Burhle until he got too expensive, Pelfry, Corriea, Baker, Colby Lewis, Livian Hernandez, Pavano, (can you name anyone that doesn't fit the above profile that we targeted as a FA)

[nicksaviking]

Examples of FA targets in the past several years.... Burhle until he got too expensive, Pelfry, Corriea, Baker, Colby Lewis, Livian Hernandez, Pavano, (can you name anyone that doesn't fit the above profile that we targeted as a FA)

 

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you that this is HOW the Twins opporate. Speaking for myself at the very least, I disagree that this is how the Twins SHOULD opporate.

 

For the record, I agree with you and think the Twins are likely to seriously consider re-signing Pelfrey. I just will be disappointed once again that they will not get a higher caliber arm.

[TheLeviathan]

Chief had it right, Pelfrey isn't the problem. The problem is that the Twins would consider him a solution. If you aren't going to add elite pitching with Pelf as a complement, then roll out a bunch of question marks. You lose games either way, but at least one MIGHT help the future.

[Mike Sixel]

If they signed a FA that pitched to a 4.00 ERA lately (ever under Ryan?), I missed that part....

[DaveW]

He is a Scott Boras client. Assuming he stays healthy and pitches like he is right now for another 3 weeks, he's not signing a 2 year deal.

Do you really want to lock yourself into Mike Pelfrey for 4 or 5 years? I don't.

 

LMAO Pelfrey is not going to command a 4 year contract, Boras client or not.

[snepp]

Leviathan has it right that Chief has it right. Pelfrey would be just fine...as a secondary (or tertiary) piece to fill out the rotation.

[Joe A. Preusser]

My perspective:

 

i think both "camps" have some truth on their side in this discussion.

 

Pelfrey has been pretty decent of late, and might be a decent gamble to be pretty decent going forward for a reasonable price.

 

on the other hand, his career and his early work this season don't inspire much confidence.

 

so, I'd be fine with resigning Pelf if he's the 3rd best starter they bring in this winter. If he's the best they add...that's an epic fail, IMO.

 

Agreed, although it doesn't have to be this offseason where we add both of the rotation upgrades. We need a solid/great 5 man rotation by 2015, not next year. We can afford to be choosy and bring in that talent during the next two offseasons. Also, Mayer might be ready by 2015 as well, so adding 2 quality arms would give us a nice big three for the playoffs. Any of our current starters can be our 4 and 5 for the regular season.

[old nurse]

Probably cause FIP is a major component of WAR for Fangraphs (not the only component) and his FIP is 4.14.

 

'In order to match up with the theory behind WAR for position players, FanGraphs has traditionally used a context-neutral statistic (Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)) in order to express a pitcher’s value to their team.'

 

Some people have expressed a dislike for FIP, so it should be hard for them to argue against FIP in debates but the use Fangraphs WAR stat for pitchers to help their point in other debates.

 

Read Shane's post. Pelfrey is a middle of the pack pitcher this year even factoring in the poor start. So if he is a not good pitcher, how does he end up a middle of the pack pitcher statistic wise? I guess I should have phrased it that way so you would understand what i was asking, not how WAR is calculated. Until someone comes up with something better FIP and WAR is what you have to compare players, dislike or like, it is what is there. It is better than comparing win totals. It is also ironic that Fangraphs states that FIP is better a measuring future performance that measuring the current one yet uses it in their calculations to reflect what kind of season the player is having.

[OldTwinky]

Pelfrey is so bad even he makes Correia look good.......now think about what that really says......do you still want him back?

[ThePuck]

Read Shane's post. Pelfrey is a middle of the pack pitcher this year even factoring in the poor start. So if he is a not good pitcher, how does he end up a middle of the pack pitcher statistic wise? I guess I should have phrased it that way so you would understand what i was asking, not how WAR is calculated. Until someone comes up with something better FIP and WAR is what you have to compare players, dislike or like, it is what is there. It is better than comparing win totals.

 

A couple of questions:

 

What constitutes 'middle of the pack'?

Does being middle of the pack make one good?

 

As far as why I wrote what I wrote. Too many people look at ERA as how to rank someone's season. If one looks at ERA, one would say Pelfrey has had a below average season. There's no way around that. If one looks at FIP, it's a different conversation.

 

I brought up FIP and it's correlation with WAR because you brought up WAR. We had a conversation not so long ago where I was talking about a player's FIP and you blew it off due to correlation between the FIP and ERA being too small....even though we're already dealing with small numbers to begin with. So do we go with FIP or not?

[Monkeypaws]

Maybe because 11 games is a pretty small sample size. Wouldn't you rather take a career worth of data over 11 games?

 

Well, the guy did have 2 seasons with winning records, ERAs in the 3s, and over 200 innings pitched. How is that sucky?

[Mike Sixel]

Well, the guy did have 2 seasons with winning records, ERAs in the 3s, and over 200 innings pitched. How is that sucky?

 

he's also had 4 years with ERA over 4.5.....how is that good?

[Monkeypaws]

he's also had 4 years with ERA over 4.5.....how is that good?

 

 

Yes, but two of those were when he was 22 and 23, shuttling to and from the minors, 93 innings total. Why don't we count 2012 and his ERA of 2.29 as well?

 

Before this season had had 2 good seasons and 2 not so good as a full-time major league pitcher. People are making it sound like he was atrocious, which is an exaggeration.

[Brandon]

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you that this is HOW the Twins opporate. Speaking for myself at the very least, I disagree that this is how the Twins SHOULD opporate.

 

For the record, I agree with you and think the Twins are likely to seriously consider re-signing Pelfrey. I just will be disappointed once again that they will not get a higher caliber arm.

 

I think the High Calibre arm is going to be Meyer. So the 2015 rotation would be Meyer/ Pelfry/ Dedunno (at this point if healthy) and hopefully Gibson with one more spot to fill.

 

2014 rotation is Pelfry/ Corriea/ Dedunno/ Gibson / Diamond, Albers, Logan, DeVries, Worely It would be nice to sign one more pitcher. But why would they with the offense currently in shambles and in transition? 2015 or 2016 is shaping up to be the year we can compete again so the offseason after this one we should expect a major pitcher signing to improve the rotation.

 

in a simpler term 6 innings of 4.0 era + 3 innings of 3 era = 3.67 earned runs per game. if the offense scores 4.33 runs per game then we should have a winning team and compete (Twins have a cost formula for that too I'll post about later).

[Mike Sixel]

to the point....

 

career 4.42 ERA, mostly in the NL.

 

Worse than league average for K every year.

Worse than league avereage in WHIP every year but 1.

Better than average at BB/9

 

I don't know, I would love it if he was better than league average for 4 years as a Twin, but I'm not convinced. Others are. If they sign him, I hope you are right.

[old nurse]

A couple of questions:

 

What constitutes 'middle of the pack'?

Does being middle of the pack make one good?

 

As far as why I wrote what I wrote. Too many people look at ERA as how to rank someone's season. If one looks at ERA, one would say Pelfrey has had a below average season. There's no way around that. If one looks at FIP, it's a different conversation.

 

I brought up FIP and it's correlation with WAR because you brought up WAR. We had a conversation not so long ago where I was talking about a player's FIP and you blew it off due to correlation between the FIP and ERA being too small....even though we're already dealing with small numbers to begin with. So do we go with FIP or not?

 

So far this season in both leagues there are 132 pitchers that have pitched at least 100 innings. Good is a relative term. If Pelfrey is bad, that leaves 65-70 pitchers for 30 teams to call good. It is all relative. Would you call Chris Tillman of the Orioles a good pitcher? Statistics alone doesn't make the pitcher good or bad. If Pelf is bad pitcher using WAR and FIP, then Tillman is one very lucky pitcher as he is currently with a worse WAR and FIP.

[golfboy1]

I agree with this, there are arguments on both sides of this discussion. I also agree that I will not be pleased if he's their "best" acquisition. I think, don't know, think, that his career is probably more predictive of the future than is a 2-3 month stretch. But, it is certainly possible he can pitch like this for longer, but it is certainly possible he's really a below median pitcher, like his career numbers indicate.

 

I agree they should do more than just try to sign Pelfrey but I think he is worth a reasonable 2 year deal for 10 or 12 Million. If he wants much more let his walk.

 

I think he has a chance to pitch to a #4 or maybe even a #3 starter. His stats have been ok since he has come back & built up some arm strength. I think we have to factor in how fast he came back from TJ & that he is at least trending in the right direction. I don't have much hope that Worley, Diamond, Walters, Albers are going to be as good as Pelfrey going forward. I'm afraid Deduno will need surgery .

 

There aren't a lot of great options for FA starters but I'd like to see them take a run at Hughes & maybe get Josh Johnson. He's high risk but at least he has high upside if he recovers

[Shane Wahl]

Now signing Pelfrey for TWO years and up to $12 million is on the table.

 

Have people forgotten the entirety of the season up until a month ago, the majority of Pelfrey's career, his age, his actual future prospects with the team when it is good down the road, etc. etc. etc.?

 

The Twins could have a full rotation with replacement level pitchers for less than Mike Pelfrey's salary

[ashbury]

It is perhaps the case, and it is a BIG perhaps, that he means more than one win for the Twins above a replacement,

 

[nicksaviking]

I think the High Calibre arm is going to be Meyer. So the 2015 rotation would be Meyer/ Pelfry/ Dedunno (at this point if healthy) and hopefully Gibson with one more spot to fill.

 

2014 rotation is Pelfry/ Corriea/ Dedunno/ Gibson / Diamond, Albers, Logan, DeVries, Worely It would be nice to sign one more pitcher. But why would they with the offense currently in shambles and in transition? 2015 or 2016 is shaping up to be the year we can compete again so the offseason after this one we should expect a major pitcher signing to improve the rotation.

 

in a simpler term 6 innings of 4.0 era + 3 innings of 3 era = 3.67 earned runs per game. if the offense scores 4.33 runs per game then we should have a winning team and compete (Twins have a cost formula for that too I'll post about later).

 

But why sign Pelfrey? Because of the familiarity? There will be plenty of other options, the Twins don't have to settle for him simply because they already have uniforms with his name on them.

 

This familiarity stuff has aided largely to the stagnation in this organization in my opinion. Not enough coaching, front office, scouting or player turnover occurs considering all the areas in need of repair. No one wants to reach outside of their comfort zone unless their back is against the wall. I don't think a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush when the bird lays an egg like the Twins have been doing three years running.

[golfboy1]

Now signing Pelfrey for TWO years and up to $12 million is on the table.

 

Have people forgotten the entirety of the season up until a month ago, the majority of Pelfrey's career, his age, his actual future prospects with the team when it is good down the road, etc. etc. etc.?

 

The Twins could have a full rotation with replacement level pitchers for less than Mike Pelfrey's salary

 

Pelfrey hasn't been great but would you really rather have Diamond, Worley ,Walters, Hendriks, Albers or Hernandez . None of them have performed that well & I don't see fantastic upside from any of them.

 

I'm giving Pelfrey some benefit for coming back to soon. At least he has improved over the 2nd half while nobody else of the above group has stepped forward to claim a spot for 2014.

 

I've stated I hope they do more than just sign Pelfrey but there is more than one spot open in the rotation. I count Correia & Gibson as definite starters and that's it since I believe Deduno will be out.

 

Pelfrey has had 2 decent seasons with the Mets & 2 bad seasons. He was a #1 pick (overall 9th) so he was a highly regarded prospect at one time.

 

I don't think we have to worry that the Twins are going to be so good within a 2 year timeframe that we won't know what to do with Pelfrey. Meyers & possibly Mays are the only 2 SP with high upside that have any chance of being ready within 2 years.

 

 

"The Twins could have a full rotation with replacement level pitchers for less than Mike Pelfrey's salary"

 

I doubt that, unless you want 5 pitchers who suck & have zero potential to not suck. The average MLB starting pitchers salary is over 5 Million Dollars so if you want to get 5 starters for a total of Pelfreys salary I don't predict any real talent among them.

 

What would you prefer the Twins to do? I'm all for them improving their starting rotation & hope they sign Hughes or someone who is better than Pelfrey but I still think Pelfrey is better than most of the current options. Plus, if he is actually pitching good they could always flip him to a contender at some point.

[ashbury]

Have people forgotten the entirety of the season up until a month ago, the majority of Pelfrey's career, his age, his actual future prospects with the team when it is good down the road, etc. etc. etc.?

 

The back of his bubblegum card next spring will be what it will be; all the stats count, including April and May. Ditto for the career line. If we're handing out Cy Young 2013 or Hall Of Fame votes he's going to come up empty.

 

But we're trying to forecast the coming couple of years. To me, a player achieving MLB-average or better performance are determined by his

1. talent
   
2. experience
   
3. health
   
4. luck and normal fluctuation
   

I could include something about my view of the interplay among these but it'd be only marginally pertinent here.

 

This is Pelfrey's MLB history before the Twins:

age 22 ERA+ 81; 23/78; 24/113; 25/81; 26/107; 27/78; 28/out

 

The way I read it, age 22-23 he didn't yet have the experience. Age 24 he demonstrated over a full season that he has the talent. Age 25 I will go out on a limb and infer some kind of health issue. Age 26 he again demonstrated MLB level talent. Age 27 I will go out on less of a limb to assume a health issue, because we know that age 28 culminated in Tommy John Surgery.

 

Now at age 29 he has put up a half-season that was putrid, and then a third of a season (11 starts, not just "a month") that so far has him once again above major-league average in ERA.

 

So what do we forecast for his age 30-31 seasons? To me, the signs are that he earlier had MLB level talent; doing it twice over full seasons at ages 24 and 26 is IMO no fluke. He has enough experience. Luck is always an unknown.

 

So the question to me boils down to health - a) have past health issues degraded his talent, and will his future health be a good risk? I'm of the opinion that his July/August 2013 is a long enough stretch to confirm his talent remains high enough. What I don't know is his health prognosis:

• what's the experience with TJ patients at this future stage of recovery?
  
• was his age 25 blip also the elbow? or does he also have forearm, shoulder, leg, or other weak points that could flare up again?
  

Bottom line, for forecasting purposes I think Pelfrey is a much tougher nut to crack than just looking at aggregate career or 2013 totals, and a careful look suggests where to look further.

[beckmt]

Pelfrey should be an option depending on price, but only an option. He is probably better than any of the low end prospects(Diamond, Albers, Hendriks)etc. Deduno looks like a surgery candidate as noted above. That leaves Correira as the only sure option for 2014. Fan base also will demand an upgrade, so money will have to be spent. TR did a decent job last year as look at the signings and the number of failures. This year will be tougher. Hope Gibson is ready to start here next year. Too many bad possibilities so we need to sign some pitchers, Pelfrey could well be one of them.