Mike Pelfrey

[darin617]

So what do you feel are the odds that the Twins will be able to resign Mike Perfrey? His velocity is up in the mid 90's reaching 96 and he has pitched pretty good since the All-Star break.

 

I was disappointed when the Twins could only sign him to a 1 YR contract and couldn't even get a club option.

[Seth Stohs]

So what do you feel are the odds that the Twins will be able to resign Mike Perfrey? His velocity is up in the mid 90's reaching 96 and he has pitched pretty good since the All-Star break.

 

I was disappointed when the Twins could only sign him to a 1 YR contract and couldn't even get a club option.

 

I'd say ZERO, but I believe there are no absolutes in baseball, so I better say 0.5%

[stringer bell]

I guess I've seen most of Pelfrey's struggles and missed most of his good outings. From looking at his game-by-game lines, he has improved but remains pretty inconsistent. The trend is going in the right direction, he's not that old and he does have a mid-nineties fastball. I wouldn't object out of hand signing Mike Pelfrey for another year or two.

[old nurse]

Last 10 games an ERA slightly under 4 with a FIP fairly close to that number. He has 4-5 more starts this year. If that performance level continues to the end of the year I could understand Ryan trying to re-sign him. Depends on a lot of different things. if Ryan wants him. He is not a fastball at the knees kind of pitcher. There are still 4 spots open after the pitcher that is signed. What does Ryan think of the in house options? What else can he sign? At the end of the season it should be a better picture.

[Pius Jefferson]

I don't think it's worth the risk to bring him back and see him implode a second year in the American League.

[TL]

I would sign him. He came back very quickly from TJ surgery, arguably too quickly, with poor early results. lately he has been better and I would think closer to whgat to expect next year. plus he is a guy who never complains, wants the ball, and has a good chance to be an inning eater number 4 type starter for a few years. Not saying he is top of rotation material but I think he is a valuable piece with potential upside as he moves further away from surgery.

[Mike Sixel]

Four years before this with awful eras....two with good, you want to roll the dice on his career being th fluke, not the last half of this year?

[Kwak]

So which of the AAA "pitchers" are you suggesting replace him? Pelfrey is better than the junk shuttling between Rochester and Minneapolis.

[DaveW]

I'd sign him in a heartbeat, he likes Minnesota, has family in the area and the twins have no better options, give him 2 years, 10 mil.

[DaveW]

I'd say ZERO, but I believe there are no absolutes in baseball, so I better say 0.5%

 

Why?

[nicksaviking]

Why?

 

He's an optimist.

[Shane Wahl]

I am currently punching myself in the face.

 

Pelfrey is NOT good. He has managed to throw hard like he did in yesteryear, but he was never good back then. He has managed to be effective into the 7th inning a few times .. . . . holy hell, stop everything . . . resign him!!!!

 

No. There is absolutely ZERO future for him beyond 2014 anyway. It is perhaps the case, and it is a BIG perhaps, that he means more than one win for the Twins above a replacement, but he has already stolen millions of bucks from this team with his terrible performance. No more, please. Why is that so crazy? I simply replace him with Liam Hendriks and say here you go. Deal or you get dealt. No one, and I mean no one, is going to TRADE for Mike Pelfrey.

 

It would seem that the default, no FA addition, zero injury rotation is:

 

Correia

Deduno

Diamond

Worley

Gibson

 

The bottom three are not good, but the top two don't belong where they are. I would seek, desperately, to try to trade Correia and Deduno in some kind of trade package involving other players and maybe lower prospects to actually fill the top of the rotation with viable pitching candidates.

 

I feel like I might end up blogging about the lunacy of signing Mike Pelfrey again for millions of dollars. The whole post would just be me swearing at the stupidity of it. And then swearing some more.

[Otwins]

I hope they sign Pelfrey. He wouldn't be the first pitcher to throw better the second year after Tommy John surgery. I am not seeing 5 starters better than him.

[Shane Wahl]

To clarify, I do not mean that Diamond, Worley and Gibson are not good generally. I am not surprised that an injured Diamond and a terribly misused Gibson didn't perform in 2013. Not sure what the issue is with Worley. Anyway, I don't mind, at all, those three in the rotation.

[Shane Wahl]

I hope they sign Pelfrey. He wouldn't be the first pitcher to throw better the second year after Tommy John surgery. I am not seeing 5 starters better than him.

 

It keep happening around here . . .

 

Re-sign him for WHAT purpose? He is NOT good. And he certainly isn't a FUTURE pitcher for the Twins. The Twins lost games because of this bad pitcher. You expect what out of the future for him? Why not just let young pitchers get an actual tryout to see if they can offer something going forward. WE ALL know that Pelfrey brings nothing going forward.

 

WHY is this crazy to some people?

[DaveW]

It keep happening around here . . .

 

Re-sign him for WHAT purpose? He is NOT good. And he certainly isn't a FUTURE pitcher for the Twins. The Twins lost games because of this bad pitcher. You expect what out of the future for him? Why not just let young pitchers get an actual tryout to see if they can offer something going forward. WE ALL know that Pelfrey brings nothing going forward.

 

WHY is this crazy to some people?

So...you don't want to resign the guy who has been pitching much better as of late (after coming back really, really early after TJS) yet you want to give Worley a rotation spot based on what again??

[DaveW]

Since coming back from the disabled list in 11 games Pelfrey has a 3.45 ERA, I'm not sure why people think that is some bizarre fluke or whatever.

[freshinthehouse]

I'd gladly take Pelfrey back at a 2 year deal. Dude has shown he can be decent, which is more than you can see for pretty much any other starter the Twins have in-house. And if i remember correctly i think read that he likes it here, so we shouldn't have to grossly overpay him.

[old nurse]

I am currently punching myself in the face.

 

Pelfrey is NOT good. He has managed to throw hard like he did in yesteryear, but he was never good back then. He has managed to be effective into the 7th inning a few times .. . . . holy hell, stop everything . . . resign him!!!!

 

No. There is absolutely ZERO future for him beyond 2014 anyway. It is perhaps the case, and it is a BIG perhaps, that he means more than one win for the Twins above a replacement, but he has already stolen millions of bucks from this team with his terrible performance. No more, please. Why is that so crazy? I simply replace him with Liam Hendriks and say here you go. Deal or you get dealt. No one, and I mean no one, is going to TRADE for Mike Pelfrey.

 

 

.

 

With a very poor first half of the season, how does fangraphs have him currently at 1.6 wins above replacement?

[big dog]

It keep happening around here . . .

 

Re-sign him for WHAT purpose? He is NOT good. And he certainly isn't a FUTURE pitcher for the Twins. The Twins lost games because of this bad pitcher. You expect what out of the future for him? Why not just let young pitchers get an actual tryout to see if they can offer something going forward. WE ALL know that Pelfrey brings nothing going forward.

 

WHY is this crazy to some people?

 

...so wait...you don't want the Twins to sign him, correct? I'm not sure what you really think about him

[Joe A. Preusser]

It keep happening around here . . .

 

Re-sign him for WHAT purpose? He is NOT good. And he certainly isn't a FUTURE pitcher for the Twins. The Twins lost games because of this bad pitcher. You expect what out of the future for him? Why not just let young pitchers get an actual tryout to see if they can offer something going forward. WE ALL know that Pelfrey brings nothing going forward.

 

WHY is this crazy to some people?

 

But he is good. He has good stuff and his 95mph fastball is a nice changeup from the 89-91 most of our other starters are throwing. 2 years, 10 mil, with a club option for a third year. This guy could put up a sub 4 ERA over that contract, so how exactly is he not worth it? Admittedly I did not follow his career closely before he joined the Twins, but as far as pitching poorly this year at times I give him a pass for coming back from TJ incredibly early. When he's thrown well he has won games for us.

 

 

Gibson

Correia

Pelfrey

Diamond/Deduno

Worley

 

Now you're not just trotting out AAAA filler, that at least is a rotation of MLB pitchers (albeit one made up of 4s and 5s). Now you have the option of adding 2 quality pitchers to the mix and cutting out the two poorest performers to make a very nice rotation. You can't do that if you're constantly giving AAAAers extended tryouts. We need the rotation to be in good shape by 2015 so it's time to get those players in place. Hendriks, Hernandez, et al had nice opportunities to prove they were legit this year and did not do so. No team that wants to be successful can use up more than 1 spot in the rotation trying guys out. 1 at most.

[Brandon]

I think Pelfry is capable of pitching 180 - 210 innings per season with an era around 4.00. That is exactly the kind of starter the Twins want for their current formula of winning plus cost efficiency. Plus his cost on the free agent market wont be too high. He is worth between 2 year 10 million and 3 year 21 million after this season.

 

Twins formula for FA pitchers is a pitcher capable of throwing 180-200 innings with era around 4.00 K rate around 5-7 per 9. These pitchers are league average and cost much less then an ace or a Sanchez type pitcher. Have that with an above average close to 3.00 bullpen = a score under 4 after 9 innings played on average. with an offense averaging over 4 runs per game = a likely winning scenario more often then not for that starting pitchers turn....multiply times 5 starters = a potential 90 win season. that's how they do it. they want to find one ace to increase the odds but that isn't important if they have a rotation that is 6 or 7 deep. right now the Twins probably have some of the best 6 7 and 8 starters in the league just not very good 1,2,or 3 starters.

 

Next season we would have:

Pelfry

Corriea

Diamond

Dedunno (if he isn't injured)

Gibson then Meyer and hopefully May

I am not as bullish at this point for Worely he may have to move back to the National league. I do hope we sign an additional Pitcher this offseason. I think that will depend on how the Twins feel about their offense. This year the offense stepped back. If TR doesn't feel the offense can step forward next year the motivation to get another pitcher may be put off till next offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

You are all ignoring his career results, and assuming as a 30 year old (next year) he is going to be significantly better than he has been during his career. I'm not sure I understand the thinking, do people really think his career numbers are not predictive?

[orangevening]

...so wait...you don't want the Twins to sign him, correct? I'm not sure what you really think about him

 

Yeah, I think Pelfrey ate his kids or something. Maybe just forgot to send him a birthday card?

[Guest USAFChief]

My perspective:

 

i think both "camps" have some truth on their side in this discussion.

 

Pelfrey has been pretty decent of late, and might be a decent gamble to be pretty decent going forward for a reasonable price.

 

on the other hand, his career and his early work this season don't inspire much confidence.

 

so, I'd be fine with resigning Pelf if he's the 3rd best starter they bring in this winter. If he's the best they add...that's an epic fail, IMO.

[Shane Wahl]

You are all ignoring his career results, and assuming as a 30 year old (next year) he is going to be significantly better than he has been during his career. I'm not sure I understand the thinking, do people really think his career numbers are not predictive?

 

Pelfrey is not good and his career numbers show this. And it is this kind of mismanagement of smaller amounts of money that drives me insane about this organization, from Punto to Pelfrey.

[Mike Sixel]

My perspective:

 

i think both "camps" have some truth on their side in this discussion.

 

Pelfrey has been pretty decent of late, and might be a decent gamble to be pretty decent going forward for a reasonable price.

 

on the other hand, his career and his early work this season don't inspire much confidence.

 

so, I'd be fine with resigning Pelf if he's the 3rd best starter they bring in this winter. If he's the best they add...that's an epic fail, IMO.

 

I agree with this, there are arguments on both sides of this discussion. I also agree that I will not be pleased if he's their "best" acquisition. I think, don't know, think, that his career is probably more predictive of the future than is a 2-3 month stretch. But, it is certainly possible he can pitch like this for longer, but it is certainly possible he's really a below median pitcher, like his career numbers indicate.

[Dave T]

So...you don't want to resign the guy who has been pitching much better as of late (after coming back really, really early after TJS) yet you want to give Worley a rotation spot based on what again??

+1. We paid for his recovery year. Now he's worth a multi-year contract.

[beckmt]

Would not be a big deal if Twins resigned Pelfrey. Twins still need to sign 1-2 FA pitchers that are better than what they have now. Pelfrey is better than Hendriks and some of the other AAAA starters they are rolling out now. I think 1 - 3 years at range of 3/21 would be top end. He has more upside than Corriea.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd sign him in a heartbeat, he likes Minnesota, has family in the area and the twins have no better options, give him 2 years, 10 mil.

 

He is a Scott Boras client. Assuming he stays healthy and pitches like he is right now for another 3 weeks, he's not signing a 2 year deal.

Do you really want to lock yourself into Mike Pelfrey for 4 or 5 years? I don't.