Judging A Rebuild

[John Bonnes]

I just read a story about a team in a similar boat as the Twins - the 2013 Chicago Cubs. The author was wondering "how do we as fans judge a rebuilding effort?"

 

He notes a few setbacks: first, "Other than a few scattered years, the Chicago Cubs have pretty much been building or rebuilding since the Taft administration." Also he points out that the two biggest hopes for their future, Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, "have had wildly dissappointing seasons."

 

But he sees the Cubs as doing fairly well overall. He finds hope in:

- an improving farm system

- longtime problems are being addresses, like fielding and plate patience

- they've mostly been competetive.

 

So how do we judge the Twins rebuilding effort? I see a lot of parallels.

[Mike Sixel]

Long post deleted, just not worth it.

[old nurse]

This year the team saw Dozier and Florimon pick up their games. Next year would be Arcia, Hicks and Gibson., maybe Calabello.

The similarities are the hit a misses without anyone really jumping out to be a superstar to carry the team.

[Badsmerf]

Judging a rebuild is tough. Right now the Twins look to have hit on a bunch of players recently (with the exception of starting pitching... for now). The positional talent coming up is phenomenal. I consider things to be moving forward in the rebuild if the organization looks to be improving; which I believe it is.

[Rosterman]

As a fan, I do want to see a good game, in which the players are performing and enjoying themselves, and the overall string of games remain somewhat competitive. It is hard to view a game when you are down a massive amount in the first few innings, or the players don't make plays, or the team just doesn't hit (move runners around, drive in runs more often than not, take pitches correctly and get on base, maybe a running game.

 

It is also nice when there are players you get excited about. Perkins in one, now...of course Mauer (and Morneau). That's about it. It's nice when a new guy comes up (remember how Gomez overshadowed Young, the love many had for Revere, even getting behind an underdog like Punto).

 

To sound like a Twins commercial pitchman: "Let's root root root for Thomas, Collabaro, Ramirez and Doumit." Not.

 

I will admit the 2013 free-agent class was an overall bust, in many ways. A rebuilding team does sign big and small free agents, some with the hopes of hanging around for more than a year, some that you can flip for a prospect. You invest that money (that never carries over) for on-field product that you can hopefully trade off for future product.

 

The Twins, as many have said, have failed miserably in identifying players to trade within arbitration coming off great years, and doing something, anything, with potential free agents that more than likely won't resign.

 

They do identify replacement value players that get them along for a year or two (if we do get a third season out of Fein and Burton, we can all applaud). But like the aforementioned pitchers, and the Thomasas and Ramirezes and even Florimons...the 25th and 41st players from other organizations that are just on the field while our draftees develop, the Twins need to recognize that these re sellable commodities sooner rather than later.

 

Prospects are tough. We all wanted to root root root for Aaron Hicks, and then we ended up shielding out eyes. Gibson was to be the second-coming of great pitching but almost made you yearn for Hendriks. Both can still pull out the stops and be stellar next season, or in 2015...they have that long of a leash.

 

But a rebuilding team needs to play the game. Needs to have you pay attention to what is happening on the field, not the scoreboard or what beer or brat you yearn for next. You also want players to applaud when they come to the plate and get a hit or field a ball nicely. You want pitchers that make you applaud at the end of an inning or when their bumper music plays during their bullpen walk.

 

You also want to be behind management. When they come out after-the-fact and say their general manager had more money to spend but didn't, and the team is tanking...well, you can still spend...international signing bonus money, play the waiver wire some more DURING the season and grab those 26th and 41st younger players and run them thru waivers again so you can keep them in your system. If you have a weakness on the field (two outfield spots, three infield spots, designated hitter) go ahead an do a waiver claim for a big future free-agent gun and have them hit to put some fans in the seats, and maybe you might even resign them for next year. If you aren't going to advance anyone from the sub minors, let us see Byrd in the outfield or some aging pitcher throwing strikes. I would rather see you spend some money to put butts in the seats rather than drag out P.J. Walters or have Ramirez/Thomas out there shagging balls...none of whom SHOULD be around in 2014.

 

I want to see a team of replacement level players, I can go watch the Saints. I want to see major league ball, I want to see a team playing hard, with developing players that may/may not be the future of the franchise.

[messier]

This isn't a rebuild. The Twins are going to surprise a lot of people this season. Oh wait.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is Terry Ryan's previous regime a better parallel? Could the 2013 Twins be like the 1997 Twins? They both have one star position player (Knoblauch and Mauer) and not a lot else on offense, except a bunch of guys a few years away in the minors. The 2013 Twins have the better bullpen, but don't have anything like Radke (or even Tewksbury) in the MLB rotation. Acquired in the 1997-98 offseason, could Joe Mays and Eric Milton be like our current Trevor May and Alex Meyer?

 

Taking that view, it could be ~3 more years before the Twins see competitiveness, given reasonable success at building from within.

[PseudoSABR]

Is Terry Ryan's previous regime a better parallel? Could the 2013 Twins be like the 1997 Twins? They both have one star position player (Knoblauch and Mauer) and not a lot else on offense, except a bunch of guys a few years away in the minors. The 2013 Twins have the better bullpen, but don't have anything like Radke (or even Tewksbury) in the MLB rotation. Acquired in the 1997-98 offseason, could Joe Mays and Eric Milton be like our current Trevor May and Alex Meyer?

 

Taking that view, it could be ~3 more years before the Twins see competitiveness, given reasonable success at building from within.

That's a pretty unfair comparison. You're totally ignoring the elite positional depth in the minors. The Twins don't need to trade Mauer to restock the minor leagues. We're probably closer to that 2000 team currently than the 1997 team, imho.

[nicksaviking]

External rebuilds are going to be poor comprables I'd imagine. The Twins have a strong system as the Cubs do, but by all accounts, the Cubs plan on being big players in free agency and they are not shy about chasing every international player of any variaty worth a damn.

 

Teams like the A's and Rays continually rebuild by moving players at their peak and by taking advantage of every and any statistical tool available to make sure they are as informed as possible.

 

Spycake is right, the only rebuild comparasion is probably past Twins teams.

[Mike Sixel]

How long did the last rebuild take? I only have so many years left.....

[howieramone1406390264]

External rebuilds are going to be poor comprables I'd imagine. The Twins have a strong system as the Cubs do, but by all accounts, the Cubs plan on being big players in free agency and they are not shy about chasing every international player of any variaty worth a damn.

 

Teams like the A's and Rays continually rebuild by moving players at their peak and by taking advantage of every and any statistical tool available to make sure they are as informed as possible.

 

Spycake is right, the only rebuild comparasion is probably past Twins teams.

 

I wouldn't start patting the lovable losers on the back quite yet. The owner is of the newer variety and hasn't tipped his hand yet. I just found out they have some type of stadium issue also.

 

Give Theo credit for building a strong farm system, but how big a deal is it, signing 4 of the top 30 16 year-old international prospects. What is the likelihood they will be in the top 30 at 18? The top Cuban they signed is in Class A.

[Shane Wahl]

How long did the last rebuild take? I only have so many years left.....

 

Has it even started yet? Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Correia, Pelfrey . . .

[ashbury]

Has it even started yet? Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Correia, Pelfrey . . .

 

They don't rebuild, they only reload.

[nicksaviking]

I wouldn't start padding the lovable losers on the back quite yet. The owner is of the newer variety and hasn't tipped his hand yet. I just found out they have some type of stadium issue also.

 

Give Theo credit for building a strong farm system, but how big a deal is it, signing 4 of the top 30 16 year-old international prospects. What is the likelihood they will be in the top 30 at 18? The top Cuban they signed is in Class A.

 

While they certainly could be patted on the back for their aggressive approach to putting a competitive team back on the field, I didn't pat them on the back. I simply stated they are different than the Twins in the fact that reports have them being agressive this offseason which would match their agressive approach to international free agency. How is that even debatable?

 

Additionally, why do I have the feeling that if Terry Ryan signed 4 of the top 30 international prospects you would be throwing that around as proof that he is the best GM in the league?

[drjim]

While they certainly could be patted on the back for their aggressive approach to putting a competitive team back on the field, I didn't pat them on the back. I simply stated they are different than the Twins in the fact that reports have them being agressive this offseason which would match their agressive approach to international free agency. How is that even debatable?

 

Additionally, why do I have the feeling that if Terry Ryan signed 4 of the top 30 international prospects you would be throwing that around as proof that he is the best GM in the league?

 

I do not if the Cubs are aggressive as you think in putting a competitive team back on the field. They are already preparing their fans for another 90 loss season next year.

 

We got mired in day to day details, but I imagine an outsider looking at the Cubs and Twins rebuild over the past two seasons would see pretty much the same results. And they would more or less be right.

[Monkeypaws]

The rebuild will only come as far as starting pitching and clutch hitting will take it. Until they find guys that can do those two things, they will stink.

[howieramone1406390264]

While they certainly could be patted on the back for their aggressive approach to putting a competitive team back on the field, I didn't pat them on the back. I simply stated they are different than the Twins in the fact that reports have them being agressive this offseason which would match their agressive approach to international free agency. How is that even debatable?

 

Additionally, why do I have the feeling that if Terry Ryan signed 4 of the top 30 international prospects you would be throwing that around as proof that he is the best GM in the league?

 

I don't have a clue. I prefer my baseball players American made.

[Badsmerf]

The rebuild will only come as far as starting pitching and clutch hitting will take it. Until they find guys that can do those two things, they will stink.

David Ortiz and Derek Jeter will be available soon.... While we're at it we should tickle goats and sprinkle chalk in the showers.

[Thrylos]

So how do we judge the Twins rebuilding effort? I see a lot of parallels.

 

I do not see many parallels in the most basic stuff:

 

The Cubs had a wholesale rebuilding effort of their front office, their scouting, player development, minor league and major league staff. The Twins still have folks around who have been with the Twins since Pohlad (the dad) bought the team.

 

So, frankly, the Twins' "rebuilding" is "rearranging".

 

And, yes, on paper their farm system is better, thanks to Bill Smith's international signings and to high picks due to suckage. But the key is, can the ones who managing and leading the club, deal with it and bring a World Championship? Because they have not done it in the past...

 

And, for truth's sake a reality should be mentioned: the Twins have had a worse record with Ryan as the GM in each of his stints, than with both of his predecessors... Not the guy one should trust to turn a team around (for better), if one looks at things objectively...

[cmb0252]

The rebuilding process takes patience and a good understanding about prospects. The fact people have already written off Hicks/Gibson shows the lack of both of those things.

 

I agree with most that the Twins rebuild and the Cubs rebuild is different. Not in the fact that they both suck but the fact how aggressive the Cubs front office is while ours is passive. Both teams are going to finish in the bottom 10 in baseball...again....for a third year...so we don't yet know who's rebuild is going better. On paper it looks like the cubs with their badger like aggressive approach. Time will tell.

[TheLeviathan]

The rebuilding process takes patience and a good understanding about prospects. The fact people have already written off Hicks/Gibson shows the lack of both of those things.

 

I agree with most that the Twins rebuild and the Cubs rebuild is different. Not in the fact that they both suck but the fact how aggressive the Cubs front office is while ours is passive. Both teams are going to finish in the bottom 10 in baseball...again....for a third year...so we don't yet know who's rebuild is going better. On paper it looks like the cubs with their badger like aggressive approach. Time will tell.

 

I would say right now that the Twins have a significant edge jut because of how elite Buxton and Sano are as prospects.

 

But you ar right....with their aggressiveness they might close that gap quickly. Which is frustrating given that the Twins have a lot more room for aggressiveness.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There are things about a rebuild that you can judge during the rebuild, but to be fair, you really cannot judge it until you see the final product. I think it's fair to say that Terry Ryan is acquiring prospects and not rushing their development, though to an extent he's sacrificing the product on the field a bit, and I don't think that's accidental either.

 

That said, the end result will be what the final product looks like. If Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Meyer, and Rosario turn out to be busts, this team is going to be a cellar dweller for the better part of the decade. If they turn out to be stars, the Twins will be serious contenders for a good chunk of the next decade. Time will tell.

[howieramone1406390264]

There are things about a rebuild that you can judge during the rebuild, but to be fair, you really cannot judge it until you see the final product. I think it's fair to say that Terry Ryan is acquiring prospects and not rushing their development, though to an extent he's sacrificing the product on the field a bit, and I don't think that's accidental either.

 

That said, the end result will be what the final product looks like. If Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Meyer, and Rosario turn out to be busts, this team is going to be a cellar dweller for the better part of the decade. If they turn out to be stars, the Twins will be serious contenders for a good chunk of the next decade. Time will tell.

 

Completely agree. It really is that simple.

[Alex]

I have a hard time with this rebuild. I like the depth of the farm system, but I've been very frustrated with the approach to free agency, which then bleeds into their trading. They don't acquire talent that might interest another team at the deadline and haven't really sold high on anyone in the last couple of years.

[Alex]

Oh, and the really frustrating thing is to see a future hall of famer prime years wasted during this rebuild that is going to take longer because of that low risk approach to free agency and an inability to sell high on veterans.

[nicksaviking]

I don't have a clue. I prefer my baseball players American made.

 

Speechless. I seriously hope this is a joke.

 

We'll see how similar these rebuilds look come December when the Cubs have big money offers out to Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury.

[jorgenswest]

Has it even started yet? Willingham, Doumit, Morneau, Correia, Pelfrey . . .

 

This. Plus...

 

No rebuild yet. Just a bad team. You don't put up your oldest roster in 15 years and call it a rebuild. You don't extend guys like Doumit and call it a rebuild. All that does is take away at bats from guys who could be part of the solution.

 

1999 was a rebuild. 1982 was a rebuild.

 

The decisions of 2012-2013 just continue a cycle of mediocrity.

 

Will 2014 be the beginning of the rebuild?

 

Note: The team age this year just fell a tenth below the 2010 mark. That relative high age roster mark in 2010 combined with little ready in the system should have been a huge red flag to the front office.

[Guest USAFChief]

This. Plus...

 

No rebuild yet. Just a bad team. You don't put up your oldest roster in 15 years and call it a rebuild. You don't extend guys like Doumit and call it a rebuild. All that does is take away at bats from guys who could be part of the solution.

 

1999 was a rebuild. 1982 was a rebuild.

 

The decisions of 2012-2013 just continue a cycle of mediocrity.

 

Will 2014 be the beginning of the rebuild?

 

Note: The team age this year just fell a tenth below the 2010 mark. That relative high age roster mark in 2010 combined with little ready in the system should have been a huge red flag to the front office.

Who is Doumit taking ABs from?

[TheLeviathan]

Who is Doumit taking ABs from?

 

Eduardo Escobar. We can start that low on the totem pole, even he has more of a chance to be a long-term contributor.

 

Basically anyone under 27 that has even remote possibilities of being a competent player. He, like several other players, should've been moved when they had value.

[darin617]

When have the Twins said they were rebuilding? What Houston did is what a rebuild is supposed to be. When you look at the the Twins roster there are way to many veterans here that should have been traded or DFA. Also, A big key to a rebuild would be some actual pieces to build around. It's pretty sad when your best player is not healthy and your only young player that is worth keeping is Brian Dozier.