Judging A Rebuild

[orangevening]

'In 2014, if Morneau doesn’t return, the core of Twins with winning backgrounds will be Mauer and … uh… pretty much nobody. I like numbers as much as most of you, but team building is a multidimensional task. Veteran players with skills – in the clubhouse and on the field – need to be part of the build.'

Winning background in the majors. That our minor league teams have all winning records (and dominance in A ball) gives me hope too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Surely the Twins weren't the only team to evaluate Asian talent soley by using Youtube.

 

The Twins front office is still old-school -- I doubt they've even seen Gangnam Style yet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think one thing worth considering is whether the Revere deal still looks like the right move. I'm on the record as loving it and I think there is a strong chance we sold high.

 

But man, it sure feels like the return has been less than hoped for. May had a real nice start recently but he's still very risky as a future rotation bet. Worley has been a disaster. Couple that with Hicks' struggles and I have more doubt now than I expected.

 

i think Ryan was still right to make that move, but it isn't playing out as well as hoped.

 

On one hand, I felt Revere was over-rated and thus expendable, even after the Span trade.

 

On the other hand, it does seem like the Phillies knew what they were dealing in Worley and May. Seemed a bit too good to be true to get two promising pitchers for Revere.

 

I don't think the trade is going to haunt us or anything, but so far, it seems like TR was bested, if just a little bit. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, though.

[diehardtwinsfan]

On one hand, I felt Revere was over-rated and thus expendable, even after the Span trade.

 

On the other hand, it does seem like the Phillies knew what they were dealing in Worley and May. Seemed a bit too good to be true to get two promising pitchers for Revere.

 

I don't think the trade is going to haunt us or anything, but so far, it seems like TR was bested, if just a little bit. There's still plenty of time to turn it around, though.

 

Did you see May's last box score? The kid has talent. Yes there's risk, but he has talent. The fact that we got both for Revere is rather impressive considering a number of us would have been thrilled with one of them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Again, while there is at least some merit to the idea that Doumit is taking PAs away from Parmelee (unlike the Escobar, Hicks or "possible minor trade" examples), the real culprit isn't Doumit, Gardy or TR...it's Parmelee.

 

I mostly agree with your take, I think Parmelee has frittered away plenty of chances this year... but isn't that partially TR's fault too? TR built the team with the idea of Parmelee being a starter, and Parm's been thoroughly mediocre.

 

I guess, where other people are arguing that TR should be throwing more things at the wall to see if they stick, I'm starting to think maybe a good talent evaluator would just start finding guys that stick without all of this fruitless throwing around.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Did you see May's last box score? The kid has talent. Yes there's risk, but he has talent. The fact that we got both for Revere is rather impressive considering a number of us would have been thrilled with one of them.

 

That's exactly what I was thinking when the trade was made... but I'm starting to strongly suspect the Phillies knew Worley was damaged goods (not that they hid injury, just that he wasn't the same pitcher anymore). And there's a reason too that May dropped off the BA Top 100 and is repeating AA, and the Phillies knew that.

 

Still might be worth the risk on both of them, considering that Revere isn't all that impressive, even when he's batting .300.

[TheLeviathan]

"Parms" has the 10th most PAs on the Twins in 2013. He's also "killing" AAA to the tune of a .670-ish OPS this year.

 

Again, while there is at least some merit to the idea that Doumit is taking PAs away from Parmelee (unlike the Escobar, Hicks or "possible minor trade" examples), the real culprit isn't Doumit, Gardy or TR...it's Parmelee. He was given the opportunity, he coughed it up and has done little to force another look. He'll most likely get future opportunities anyway, so I still don't understand the immediate need to purge the Twins of everyone with past major league success.

 

Parmelee was not "given every opportunity" that's hogwash. He has failed in his limited opportunities, but this is a strange argument. I find it especially strange coming from someone who was bandwagoning hard for Plouffe who had also been uninspiring after failed limited opportunities in part, as I recall, because he had former first round pedigree. You're taking the complete reverse of that previous position here.

 

I fail to see why there is any immediate need to play someone who isn't hitting and can't field over a young player who is struggling but needs to figure it out. Play the kid, he might surprise you. I also recall that being part of your Plouffe angle and you never stopped reminding us when he went on his flukey binge.

 

Your position would have cost us Dozier this year, I can't see any reason a losing team should invest at-bats into Doumit.

[drjim]

I mostly agree with your take, I think Parmelee has frittered away plenty of chances this year... but isn't that partially TR's fault too? TR built the team with the idea of Parmelee being a starter, and Parm's been thoroughly mediocre.

 

I guess, where other people are arguing that TR should be throwing more things at the wall to see if they stick, I'm starting to think maybe a good talent evaluator would just start finding guys that stick without all of this fruitless throwing around.

 

This is a fair point but I would also argue it is part of a rebuilding process. Give a chance to guys on your roster and see if they can contribute.

 

They probably assumed Parmelee wasn't going to be good enough but there was nothing lost giving him a couple hundred more at bats.

[Alex]

I don't know if that is true. Veteran bats can have value in the last year of a deal. Less risk for the acquiring team.

 

Yes, that can be an advantage in some situations, but that idea is at worst balanced by the fact that they're a year older and what we are seeing may be a decline rather than a down year for both.

 

It also certainly hasn't been the case for Morneau. He's hit better this season and more recently (though not in his last 22 PAs) so he'd be at his highest value by that logic but still no one wants him. Well, maybe the Pirates, but we'll see and my guess is at best the Twins essentially end up paying for a prospect.

[Alex]

Winning background in the majors. That our minor league teams have all winning records (and dominance in A ball) gives me hope too.

 

I think having a better hitting first baseman would put more wins on the board. The winning vets on the Twins certainly haven't generated much these last three years. It's simply time to find out if we have better players or go and get them.

[Alex]

Parmelee was not "given every opportunity" that's hogwash. He has failed in his limited opportunities, but this is a strange argument. I find it especially strange coming from someone who was bandwagoning hard for Plouffe who had also been uninspiring after failed limited opportunities in part, as I recall, because he had former first round pedigree. You're taking the complete reverse of that previous position here.

 

I fail to see why there is any immediate need to play someone who isn't hitting and can't field over a young player who is struggling but needs to figure it out. Play the kid, he might surprise you. I also recall that being part of your Plouffe angle and you never stopped reminding us when he went on his flukey binge.

 

Your position would have cost us Dozier this year, I can't see any reason a losing team should invest at-bats into Doumit.

 

Here are numbers on the opportunities the Twins have given players in discussion:

 

Dozier 2012: 340 - 2013: 489

Plouffe 2011: 320 - 2012: 465 - 2013: 397

Parmelee 2011: 88- 2012: 210 - 2013: 274

 

The approach with Dozier and Plouffe has been consistent with rebuilding team. The approach with Parmelee has not. He not only has fewer PAs, but his have been the least consistent. Plouffe and Dozier had consistent playing time for two seasons. Parmelee really only got consistent time this season -- last season was a lot of up and down.

 

Parmelee's career OPS is .720, the highest of the three players. I realize he's scuffling this year, but arguing he should be written off doesn't make a lot of sense when viewed in this context.

[Guest USAFChief]

For the record, I'm not arguing Parmelee should be written off, I'm simply of the belief his struggles have little or nothing to do with Doumit, and the blame for what does have to do with Doumit isn't on Doumit.

[drjim]

Yes, that can be an advantage in some situations, but that idea is at worst balanced by the fact that they're a year older and what we are seeing may be a decline rather than a down year for both.

 

It also certainly hasn't been the case for Morneau. He's hit better this season and more recently (though not in his last 22 PAs) so he'd be at his highest value by that logic but still no one wants him. Well, maybe the Pirates, but we'll see and my guess is at best the Twins essentially end up paying for a prospect.

 

Morneau didn't have any value last year either, so there's that.

[Guest USAFChief]

 

I guess, where other people are arguing that TR should be throwing more things at the wall to see if they stick, I'm starting to think maybe a good talent evaluator would just start finding guys that stick without all of this fruitless throwing around.

I can't argue with that. He does seem to be floundering with the ML roster at the moment.

[TheLeviathan]

For the record, I'm not arguing Parmelee should be written off, I'm simply of the belief his struggles have little or nothing to do with Doumit, and the blame for what does have to do with Doumit isn't on Doumit.

 

No, of course not. Doumit isn't hanging on his back while he's hitting - it's not the dicussion at all. What you are arguing, however, is that his lack of success excuses playing Doumit at DH over him. Whereas you would've never accepted such a suggestion about Plouffe. Nor should any such suggestion be accepted when you have an aging vet who is neither contributing offense nor potential trade value and a young player is losing at-bats.

 

While Doumit is playing catcher, you're correct - he's not blocking him. When he's playing DH, he's most certainly blocking him. And if you'e advocating to continue to block him for the rest of Doumit's contract, you might as well be writing Parmelee off. It's a distinction without a difference.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is a fair point but I would also argue it is part of a rebuilding process. Give a chance to guys on your roster and see if they can contribute.

 

They probably assumed Parmelee wasn't going to be good enough but there was nothing lost giving him a couple hundred more at bats.

 

Agreed, I would havd started Parm too. It's just when your fallback options are Ryan Doumit starting in RF, or Clete Thomas (again), or Wilkin Ramirez, and you repeat this scenario at 3B, CF, and all over the rotation, for two years in a row, it feels less like a forward-moving rebuilding process and more like misplaced confidence or erroneous talent evaluation.

I suppose some of that is inherent in rebuilding, but I am growing weary of the AAA feelgood promotion cycle.

[Alex]

For the record, I'm not arguing Parmelee should be written off, I'm simply of the belief his struggles have little or nothing to do with Doumit, and the blame for what does have to do with Doumit isn't on Doumit.

 

Struggling and not getting PAs on a rebuilding team are two different things. No one is blaming Doumit directly -- I think it's more about his use. He's the most expendable player of those getting at-bats, though Ramirez is a close second (and first if he continues to get regular playing time).

 

EDIT: Doumit has 60 games at RF and DH. This is why people would argue he's the one most directly blocking Parmelee from get chances.

[howieramone1406390264]

Struggling and not getting PAs on a rebuilding team are two different things. No one is blaming Doumit directly -- I think it's more about his use. He's the most expendable player of those getting at-bats, though Ramirez is a close second (and first if he continues to get regular playing time).

 

EDIT: Doumit has 60 games at RF and DH. This is why people would argue he's the one most directly blocking Parmelee from get chances.

 

Parmelee has been in the Twins organization since 2006 and has 510 PA in the majors. IMHO the Twins current handling of him is a non-issue, and in no way impacts the Twins goal of avoiding a long rebuild.

[Guest USAFChief]

 

EDIT: Doumit has 60 games at RF and DH. This is why people would argue he's the one most directly blocking Parmelee from get chances.

I've agreed a case can be made for Doumit taking PAs away from Parmelee. I still think Parmelee is the primary cause for that.

[Alex]

I've agreed a case can be made for Doumit taking PAs away from Parmelee. I still think Parmelee is the primary cause for that.

 

That's fair and I'd agree Parmelee is a huge disappointment, but at what's the minimum point would you question the Twins decision (whether it's how bad Doumit needs to be or good Parmelee needs to be) . Parmelee is .223/.303/.372 this season while Doumit is .243/.310/.382. For me, it's close enough to say that Doumit isn't worth batting at an OF/DH position and that you may as well give those ABs to someone else, especially considering defense.

[Guest USAFChief]

That's fair and I'd agree Parmelee is a huge disappointment, but at what's the minimum point would you question the Twins decision (whether it's how bad Doumit needs to be or good Parmelee needs to be) . Parmelee is .223/.303/.372 this season while Doumit is .243/.310/.382. For me, it's close enough to say that Doumit isn't worth batting at an OF/DH position and that you may as well give those ABs to someone else, especially considering defense.

And that's fair, but IMO there's a better than even chance Doumit hits again in the future, and IMO could be a part of a winning team. Doumit put up a pretty decent season at the plate as recently as last year.

[jorgenswest]

It is reasonable to project that Doumit will hit somewhere between 2012 and 2013 levels. That would put him right at league average. Is that good enough to be a decline phase DH? I would rather have a guy performing a little below league average that has defensive skill and room to grow.

[drjim]

Parmelee has defensive skill?

[TheLeviathan]

Parmelee has defensive skill?

 

Relative to Doumit he's a defensive wizard.

[terencemann]

Agreed, I would havd started Parm too. It's just when your fallback options are Ryan Doumit starting in RF, or Clete Thomas (again), or Wilkin Ramirez, and you repeat this scenario at 3B, CF, and all over the rotation, for two years in a row, it feels less like a forward-moving rebuilding process and more like misplaced confidence or erroneous talent evaluation.

I suppose some of that is inherent in rebuilding, but I am growing weary of the AAA feelgood promotion cycle.

 

To me it just looks like the front office has no interest in major league talent other than guys who can give Mauer some rest (like Doumit) or filling in a massive black hole (Worley and Willingham). Even then, they're going after replacement level to average talent and not first tier players so it's clear there's really no focus on building a winner at the MLB level.

 

I don't mind being patient I just think it's not worth grinding my teeth over which AAAA player starts in right field on a given night. No matter what they say to the press, it's just clear that the front office knows these players aren't going to turn the Twins into contenders but there are always opportunities for good value players like Doumit or Willingham (at least when they were playing well). If you want to compare the Cubs to the Twins, then I think the Twins need to do more to sell high on players.

 

As far as judging rebuilding teams go, it's not so much about how quickly the team gets back to the playoffs (if they do it in 2 seasons, is it really a "rebuild"?) as it is about what they do once the seeds planted in the rebuild come to fruition. Dayton Moore will be judged on what the Royals do over the next couple seasons because this is the time when he needs to build a team around the young players the Royals drafted and developed. For the Twins, the clock starts when players like Sano and Buxton start to surface: that's when you know if it was worth it.

[howieramone1406390264]

The clock starting ticking 21 months ago when the perplexed Pohlads, with no where else to turn, convinced a reticent Terry Ryan to come out of semi-retirement and return our beloved Twins to past glories, thereby thrilling millions of loyal Twins fans, most of whom have never posted on a fan board.

 

IMHO the parade starts in 2015.

[Mike Sixel]

I do like a good parade. Not as much as pie, but still....

[SarasotaBill]

Rebuilding Keys:

1. Understand the goal is to build a winning club for 2016-2022.

2. Maximize players arb years - do not rush prospects into the majors

3. Most young players take a year or two to adjust to the majors

4. Lose enough this year to pick in the top 4.

5. Top 4 pick provides a elite player but also sets up the budget to overpay for a player(s) later in the draft (ex - Gonsalves)

6. At this time - Spend money on young International free agents and not MLB veterans

7. Save payroll now to go over budget down the road (let's hope they don't just pocket the money)

[ThePuck]

Rebuilding Keys:

1. Understand the goal is to build a winning club for 2016-2022.

2. Maximize players arb years - do not rush prospects into the majors

3. Most young players take a year or two to adjust to the majors

4. Lose enough this year to pick in the top 4.

5. Top 4 pick provides a elite player but also sets up the budget to overpay for a player(s) later in the draft (ex - Gonsalves)

6. At this time - Spend money on young International free agents and not MLB veterans

7. Save payroll now to go over budget down the road (let's hope they don't just pocket the money)

 

The Twins operate year to year on payroll. Whatever available money that isn't spent isn't put into payroll in later years. They've said this many times.

[howieramone1406390264]

The Twins operate year to year on payroll. Whatever available money that isn't spent isn't put into payroll in later years. They've said this many times.

 

This is correct. Ryan has also said many times, any time he has gone to management with a special request to improve the ball club, management has always agreed to said special request.