The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins’ Offseason: What’s the Payroll?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Tom Pohlad has spent much of 2026 talking about the need for the Twins to invest more heavily in the roster. That message became even clearer at the end of the season, when Pohlad said the organization intends to “meaningfully invest” in the team and that a roughly $100-million payroll is not enough to consistently compete for the postseason.

That's an important change in tone from the previous two offseasons. It also creates an important question. How much is “meaningfully”? The answer will determine whether Jeremy Zoll can pursue multiple upgrades or whether the Twins will have to choose carefully where to allocate their resources. Minnesota has obvious needs at catcher, first base and in the bullpen, while the organization would also benefit from adding depth elsewhere. There is room for improvement. There is not, however, an unlimited amount of room.

FanGraphs's RosterResource currently puts the Twins' early 2027 payroll projection around $124 million. It includes many of the team's projected commitments, arbitration salaries, younger players and other roster costs that need to be accounted for. They can create quite a bit more flexibility by non-tendering or trading certain players, but if they held to the status quo, that would be their starting point.

A $140-million payroll would provide roughly $16 million beyond that baseline. A $150-million payroll would create approximately $26 million. Getting all the way back to the neighborhood of the Twins' 2023 payroll, around $158 million, would provide significantly more flexibility.

None of those figures has been announced by the organization. That's why this is one of the seven biggest decisions of the offseason. Before the Twins can decide who to sign, they need to know how much they are willing to spend—roughly, at least. One interesting takeaway from the team's end-of-season press conference was that whereas the Pohlads had often held the baseball operations department to a strict figure in the past, they might not have an ironclad budget, going forward. Instead, Zoll might be able to pitch expansions of the payroll to meet either a pressing need or an enticing opportunity.

The Pros of Spending Big

The most obvious benefit of an increased payroll is also the easiest one for fans to understand. The Twins need better players and more depth. Minnesota finished 2026 at 77-85 and missed the postseason for the third consecutive season. The organization believes there is a young core worth building around, including Walker Jenkins, Luke Keaschall, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Brooks Lee. Adding significant outside talent would capitalize on those players being paid very low salaries at this early juncture of their careers, by making the team less dependent on them.

Pohlad has repeatedly said that being merely competitive is no longer the standard. The goal is to build a team capable of consistently reaching the postseason and (eventually) competing for a championship. That requires resources. The 2026 trade deadline provided a preview of what that could look like. Minnesota took on additional salary to acquire A.J. Minter, Dean Kremer and Jeff Hoffman.

A larger payroll gives Zoll more options. The Twins don't have to solve every problem through free agency. They could use money to retain Ryan Jeffers, and knowing there's some room in the budget makes it easier to envision giving him a qualifying offer. Trades for major contributors also get easier when you can absorb the salary attached to them. More financial flexibility means the front office can take more chances and explore more broadly.

The Cons of Spending Big

Spending more money is not automatically the same thing as building a better roster. That's the difficult part of this equation. The Twins already have significant money committed to the 2027 roster. Pablo López is set to make $21.75 million. Byron Buxton is owed $15 million. Hoffman will make $11 million, though the Twins are only on the hook for $7.25 million of that. Victor Caratini is owed $6.5 million. The Twins also pay $10 million to Houston again, as part of the Carlos Correa trade.

Then come the arbitration cases. Ten players are currently projected to earn a combined $47.3 million through arbitration. Joe Ryan is projected at $9.6 million, followed by Bailey Ober at $6.9 million, Kremer at $6.5 million and Trevor Larnach at $6.3 million. Ober and Larnach, in particular, feel likely to be moved unless they can be signed for less than those projections, but as the winter begins, they're part of the budgetary picture.

When pressed about the possibility of signing a star to fit into the firmament the team has built, however, Zoll struck a balanced note. He emphasized that the team also has to think about the future when weighing possible moves, rather than focusing solely on getting back to the postseason as soon as possible. That's a reminder that even in an organization committed to spending more, spending big carries risks that must be considered.

The Bottom Line

The Twins have spent the past two seasons showing what happens when the payroll leaves little margin for error. Now, Tom Pohlad is promising something different. That's encouraging, but the next step is putting a number behind the words.

A projected baseline around $124 million means the Twins aren't starting with a completely empty payroll ledger. But it also means that a $140-million payroll wouldn't suddenly turn Minnesota into a contender. Much of that money would already be committed to players the organization expects to have on the roster. The difference between $140 million and $160 million could determine the type of offseason Zoll can have.

That makes the payroll decision about much more than money. It will tell us how serious the Twins are about changing the direction of the organization. Pohlad has said the goal is no longer simply to be competitive. He wants the postseason to become an expectation. The Twins need to show what that expectation is worth.

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What are your expectations for Minnesota’s spending this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[tony&rodney]

The future payroll is wide open. The possibilities are many, decisions will need to be made. The Twins have been hesitant in their offseasons but could change those ways. If ownership feels that $150M is possible the options are out there. Moving multiple treasured players creates more payroll room. After July of 2025, any of Ryan, Ober, Kremer, Larnach, Lewis, and Caratini might go. The payroll is less important than identifying the talent that fits and having a plan. We are all waiting for some change.

[Andy MacPhail]

"Zoll struck a balanced note. He emphasized that the team also has to think about the future when weighing possible moves, rather than focusing solely on getting back to the postseason as soon as possible."

That statement tells me that the Twins won't focus on buying expensive 30+ yrs. old FAs, who don't want to come here. Which is fine with me. NYY can go out buy these FAs to fill out their roster that they can't develop. MN doesn't have that luxury; they have to draft & develop them. If MN has extra $ to spend. they should spend it on extending our valuable players who want to stay, not trade them!

[old nurse]

The con of spending is unlike other teams, free agent busts hurt.  Spending without a solid core doesn’t move the needle for return on investment.  Free agency still should be for a bridge player. There are exceptions but the Josh Donaldsons and Carlos Correas on longer term contracts did not work. Nelson Cruz contracts did

[killercarewoliva]

19 minutes ago, Andy MacPhail said:

"Zoll struck a balanced note. He emphasized that the team also has to think about the future when weighing possible moves, rather than focusing solely on getting back to the postseason as soon as possible."

That statement tells me that the Twins won't focus on buying expensive 30+ yrs. old FAs, who don't want to come here. Which is fine with me. NYY can go out buy these FAs to fill out their roster that they can't develop. MN doesn't have that luxury; they have to draft & develop them. If MN has extra $ to spend. they should spend it on extending our valuable players who want to stay, not trade them!

Absolutely 

[Sven]

That was a poorly written article

[jmlease1]

The Fan Graphs tool is ok, but some of the assumptions aren't great. Presuming that mutual option will get picked up by both sides is...theoretically possible? But almost never happens, so including it in the baseline seems silly. It's even more ridiculous, when you include the cost of declining the option and paying the buyout in there, which they did with Josh Bell. Pick a lane FG: either everyone is agreeing to the mutual option or not, but the Twins aren't paying an option AND a buyout on the same contract!

As a result, the presumption of a baseline for the twins at $124M is pretty wrong. Much more realistic is the Twins decline the option on Bell, and net savings of $8.75M. Personally, I'd decline to offer arbitration on both Larnach and Lewis at this point, which saves another $11.4M. That puts the "real" payroll (before 40-man and benefits) at closer to $100M, not $124M.

What will the team set the number at? I think it will be around $130M, but I'm hoping for closer to $140M. And $40M should give this team a pretty good chunk of change to invest in the roster. The biggest problem is the areas they need the most help are Catcher (assuming Jeffers leaves, which seems probably, even if we offer the QO, which I would), 1B, and the bullpen...and on the position side in particular, you're talking weak classes at those positions. So I would spend real money on the bullpen (re-sign Minter or sign a LHP of similar quality, sign an Abreu-type RH FA) and look for trade scenarios where the Twins actually take on salary for once for shore up 1B.

But I think the payroll budget for next season is going to be somewhere in the $130M-140M range. That said...I don't really expect the Twins to be that explicit about a number, because while it might generate some fan support, they would also see it as undermining their negotiating position.

[PDX Twin]

How the budget is spent is so much more important than how big it is. The current postseason has three stellar case studies.

[LambchoP]

I think we should try to trade Larnach, Wallner, Lewis and Ober. Get the best prospect return we can. If we can't get any return then release them and spend the money elsewhere. We need a starting catcher until Lackey/Tait/Diaw is ready. Need a long term answer for first base. As for pitching, I'd say one more solid SP, a lefty would be nice. For the pen a closer would be nice, but I'd be fine with any type of two late inning arms. At least one lefty. Maybe Abreau and Minter.

[rdehring]

I have a question related to this discussion.  Should both sides shock us and agree on a new CBA before spring training, the opening of camps is about 120 days from now.  My question is how many payroll related posts will the writers of TD have between now and the opening of camp?  I will put the number at 120, you pick the over or under.

[IndianaTwin]

20 minutes ago, rdehring said:

I have a question related to this discussion.  Should both sides shock us and agree on a new CBA before spring training, the opening of camps is about 120 days from now.  My question is how many payroll related posts will the writers of TD have between now and the opening of camp?  I will put the number at 120, you pick the over or under.

Over, particularly if you consider "should they trade Joe Ryan" articles as "payroll related." 

[Blyleven2011]

What the twins front office needs is a bottle with a genie in it , rub the bottle and release the genie , the twins won’t need three wishes , just ask the genie to construct a team with players that will win the world series …

payroll , falvey never spent wisely on free agents waiting for the asking demands and talent to dwindle , with zoll and and the pohlads still in charge can we expect change that they will be choosing from the top of the talent pool …

[jmlease1]

52 minutes ago, rdehring said:

I have a question related to this discussion.  Should both sides shock us and agree on a new CBA before spring training, the opening of camps is about 120 days from now.  My question is how many payroll related posts will the writers of TD have between now and the opening of camp?  I will put the number at 120, you pick the over or under.

It may be a little tedious, but it's also the single biggest issue related to the franchise, ain't it?

[rdehring]

21 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It may be a little tedious, but it's also the single biggest issue related to the franchise, ain't it?

No.  The single biggest issue is what the management does to improve the team over the winter.

Example.  They trade Larnach and throw in a lower-level prospect, say someone outside their top 20 who was solid for the FCL Twins last summer (or maybe the Mussels).  In return they get a promising reliever who was at AAA last summer with a cup of coffee for team X.  The net result would be a noticeable payroll reduction, yet the team could be improved in 2027. 

And yes, this example may prove you correct, as is does relate to payroll.😀  It just seems all the discussion is related to how much it will increase.  There are several moves they could make that would reduce payroll, perhaps enough that they could be better in 2027 with a payroll similar to this year.  Should that happen, they will likely continue to get bashed for how much they spend, even if they win many more games.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

How the budget is spent is so much more important than how big it is. The current postseason has three stellar case studies.

Those 3 teams had a total of 41 players that produced 1.5 WAR or more (1.2 for RPs).  Of those 41 players, there was one free agent and one player that was acquired as a somewhat established player.  They did not spend wisely.  They drafted and acquired prospects and developed them and there were a couple well executed extensions of young players (Rameriz / Chourio) very early in their careers.

[LastOnePicked]

Is Tom Pohlad promising something different, though? He has been pretty cryptic so far. He's merely said that a $100M payroll isn't enough. And for team that can't yet develop rookie talent the way that CLE can, he's absolutely right ... but that's just an obvious observation.

They could spend $200M this offseason and it won't move the needle unless this team somehow gets smarter.

[weitz41]

I'm of course in on a bigger payroll.

But when I look at the FA class and what the Twins have in place going forward say 3 or more seasons. Plus, where there are glaring holes. I really don't see any difference makers in free agency in 2027, not many in 2028 either. By that I'm saying someone you would sign for 4 years or more. Sure, Skubal is one. After that who? In 2028 Murakami? Then a ton of 40-year-old starters.

By increasing payroll maybe, a pricey veteran or two from a team looking to go younger and cheaper may be the way to go. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

52 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

I'm of course in on a bigger payroll.

But when I look at the FA class and what the Twins have in place going forward say 3 or more seasons. Plus, where there are glaring holes. I really don't see any difference makers in free agency in 2027, not many in 2028 either. By that I'm saying someone you would sign for 4 years or more. Sure, Skubal is one. After that who? In 2028 Murakami? Then a ton of 40-year-old starters.

By increasing payroll maybe, a pricey veteran or two from a team looking to go younger and cheaper may be the way to go. 

This is my take as well. Don't hamstring this team with long-term contracts for the current FA's who really aren't that good. Take on somebodies vets that have one or two years remaining on a contract that wants to shed some payroll. I sense that this team could be very good by the end of 2028. That might be the time to shop the upper tiers of FA for a splash or two. Not now imo.

[Brandon]

I agree with the consensus 130-140 million payroll limit.  I mean, I am sure it can go a little higher too for the right situation.  Also keep in mind we save 20 million trading or letting go of Bell, Larnarch, and Ober.  Depending on what the front office does, the payroll should be adequate.  

[Major League Ready]

I think the biggest question they need to answer is are they going to manage their assets in a manner that promotes building a contender or are they going to place the emphasis on the immediate term.  They could do a little of both.  For example, if they invested in the BP, those assets are very tradeable at the deadline.  That position is also the least predictable.