Dean Kremer vs. Bailey Ober: Who Should Stay in Minnesota?

[ewen21]

2 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

Johan Santana? You mean when Bradley was five years old?

No, I am saying Bradley would be a nice #3 if we had Johan and Liriano going at the same time.  It just a happy thought not to be taken on a literal level.

[MeleMouth]

7 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

No, I am saying Bradley would be a nice #3 if we had Johan and Liriano going at the same time.  It just a happy thought not to be taken on a literal level.

Radke and Silva were pretty good, and when Radke retired Baker was pretty good. Bradley could have replaced Boof Bonser as #5 if Gardy and his pitch to contact philosophy didn't mind the higher number of walks.

[mike8791]

2 hours ago, Coach said:

30HR/100RBI potential iB who can play defense.  Clemens is the answer you're looking for, plus we have him through 2029?

Do you really believe Clemens is the #3 or #4 batter in a contender's lineup with a .230 BA and ,300 OBP?    Yes, he's had a great year but would you expect a repeat, given his MLB track record?  We need at least one or two more  3-4 WAR players to be a serious contender.  Currently, we have none.

[CRF]

Bailey's been a decent starter, but it's time for him to move on. I think it's over for Ober. Hang onto Kremer...for now.

[Riverbrian]

I think Ober has a higher trade value. 

This team could probably move one of the 4 expiring contracts for help on the infield or bullpen help.

Personally, I'd see if you can get a decent young infielder for him. SS capable. 

And that is nothing to suggest I wouldn't like Ober on the team. He's one of us. He would just make the most sense to move for help elsewhere.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Why would they bring in another arm, you can't have depth of 10 or 12 arms that is not feasible.

the Twins had 10 guys make 3 starts or more this year
 

 

 

[JCT66]

9 hours ago, TJSweens said:

Ober can go. He is declining steadily. His loss of velocity has more than offset the advantage a 7 foot extension gives him. 

I'm on the fence with Kremer. I don't want a 31 year old back of the rotation starter interfering with guys like Prielipp, Matthews, Able and Rojas taking their next steps. At the same time, history has shown the Twins need rotation depth that runs about 7 pitchers.

I’d say they need starting pitching depth that runs about 9 pitchers. 
 

I’d like the Opening day rotation to be Pablo, Joe, Taj, Prielipp and Kremer.  Bid a fond farewell to Bailey and wish him the best wherever he lands.  Able, Festa, Rojas at AAA with hopefully Riley Quick as well. Not sure about Zebby. Might be time to go to the Bullpen where I absolutely believe he could dominate. 

[Mike Sixel]

52 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I think Ober has a higher trade value. 

This team could probably move one of the 4 expiring contracts for help on the infield or bullpen help.

Personally, I'd see if you can get a decent young infielder for him. SS capable. 

And that is nothing to suggest I wouldn't like Ober on the team. He's one of us. He would just make the most sense to move for help elsewhere.  

I'd be shocked if you can even get a top 150 prospect, let alone a guy playing in the majors, who can pay SS, that you'd ever want hitting. I don't think teams trade SS that can hit very often, let alone for a number four starter. 

[mikelink45]

Tonight Ober made the decision - Kremer stays

[Twodogs]

Pablo Lopez

Joe Ryan

Taj Bradley

Zebby Matthews

Dean Kremer

Mick Abel

Connor Prelipp

Bailey Ober

Maybe Festa??

 

The Twins have basically 8 guys for 5 spots, I mean they would kind of be like a poor man's Dodgers.  I mean how many starting pitchers do they have rolling around in the organization, or (did have) before the Skubal trade.  I mean the Dodgers have proven that even they need all of the starters in order to have a full consistent season.  Now it would be a great problem if everyone was completely healthy all year long but in all reality, Pablo will probably only be counted on for a solid 20 - 24 Starts.  Let's error on the low side as we know how this always plays out.  Ryan could put together a full season of 32 starts but he hasn't done that lately, but lets say Ryan and put down 29 - 30 starts.  Right now Taj, probably because of his youth and he hasn't been abused over the last 3 - 4 seasons could probably be counted on for 32 starts.  Zebby might be able to take another step forward and start 28 - 30 games.  Zebby and Prelipp have looked to be maturing a little and could be on the cusp of becoming trustworthy of giving them the ball every day.  Kremer as the 5th starter should be counted on for 24 - 25 starts hopefully after showing that he is fully recovered.  Then you have Abel, who knows after recovering from injury maybe he can have 15 solid major league starts?  Then ideally Prelipp 15 solid major league starts puts you at about 162 or so.  Now you still have Ober on the squad for insurance.  I mean in no way do i really want Ober to be starting 30 games a year, but he'd be a great fall back option to throw 20 starts if any of those other guys get hurt which they will, maybe not serious injuries but injured enough to miss 3 - 4 weeks, you know with back spasms or bi lateral leg weakness, and if 2 or 3 of the guys the Twins are depending on have some minor things that put them out for a few weeks here or there then Bailey would come in perfect.  Just my thoughts, can never have enough pitching.  

 

I mean it would be ideal if the Twins went out and signed Skubal and King after he opts out and then brought in Freddy Peralta as insurance but that won't happen.  The Twins have a good group of decent pitchers and Ober has a lot of major league experience and innings under his belt.  I think he is a good keep if they aren't trying to run him out there at their #3 starter or something like that.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd be shocked if you can even get a top 150 prospect, let alone a guy playing in the majors, who can pay SS, that you'd ever want hitting. I don't think teams trade SS that can hit very often, let alone for a number four starter. 

Maybe. 

I'd have no idea what is possible. I just assume that Ober would bring more than Kremer. And I've seen average starting pitching... even below average starting pitching get moved for some value. 

Add to it if you have to but Ober would have more value in my opinion. 

[The Great Hambino]

1. In terms of investment for next season, Kremer and Ober are roughly equal (let's say $8MM each, give or take a mil)

2. The Twins acquired Kremer at the trade deadline knowing this

3. It doesn't make much sense to spend $16MM on two slots at the back of the rotation, especially since they can't be optioned to AAA if necessary

4.  Some of y'all are acting like it's not possible for them to acquire more starters in the offseason.  That is an option, whether through free agency or trade, especially if $8MM gets freed up by moving on from one of these guys

5.  When in doubt, the starter that was recently used out of the bullpen is the likelier of two starters to be cut loose

To me, it all adds up to goodbye Ober, welcome back Kremer.  Now invest in a ceiling raising starter, and you might actually have the makings of a quality rotation with decent depth next year

[Danchat]

For me, projecting forward who is more likely to continue regressing leads me to want to say goodbye to Ober. What if his stuff drops another level? Pre 2025 Ober is not coming back, whereas Kremer resembled his former self with us. So I think Kremer's back and Ober isn't... they should be able to trade Ober for something, not gonna be a lot, but teams will pay for starting pitching.

[JCT66]

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

Pablo Lopez

Joe Ryan

Taj Bradley

Zebby Matthews

Dean Kremer

Mick Abel

Connor Prelipp

Bailey Ober

Maybe Festa??

 

The Twins have basically 8 guys for 5 spots, I mean they would kind of be like a poor man's Dodgers.  I mean how many starting pitchers do they have rolling around in the organization, or (did have) before the Skubal trade.  I mean the Dodgers have proven that even they need all of the starters in order to have a full consistent season.  Now it would be a great problem if everyone was completely healthy all year long but in all reality, Pablo will probably only be counted on for a solid 20 - 24 Starts.  Let's error on the low side as we know how this always plays out.  Ryan could put together a full season of 32 starts but he hasn't done that lately, but lets say Ryan and put down 29 - 30 starts.  Right now Taj, probably because of his youth and he hasn't been abused over the last 3 - 4 seasons could probably be counted on for 32 starts.  Zebby might be able to take another step forward and start 28 - 30 games.  Zebby and Prelipp have looked to be maturing a little and could be on the cusp of becoming trustworthy of giving them the ball every day.  Kremer as the 5th starter should be counted on for 24 - 25 starts hopefully after showing that he is fully recovered.  Then you have Abel, who knows after recovering from injury maybe he can have 15 solid major league starts?  Then ideally Prelipp 15 solid major league starts puts you at about 162 or so.  Now you still have Ober on the squad for insurance.  I mean in no way do i really want Ober to be starting 30 games a year, but he'd be a great fall back option to throw 20 starts if any of those other guys get hurt which they will, maybe not serious injuries but injured enough to miss 3 - 4 weeks, you know with back spasms or bi lateral leg weakness, and if 2 or 3 of the guys the Twins are depending on have some minor things that put them out for a few weeks here or there then Bailey would come in perfect.  Just my thoughts, can never have enough pitching.  

 

I mean it would be ideal if the Twins went out and signed Skubal and King after he opts out and then brought in Freddy Peralta as insurance but that won't happen.  The Twins have a good group of decent pitchers and Ober has a lot of major league experience and innings under his belt.  I think he is a good keep if they aren't trying to run him out there at their #3 starter or something like that.

This an interesting post but it ignores the reality of the situation. Both Kremer and Ober have no options. So if they aren’t on the opening day roster where are you putting them?   One or the other has to go.  Neither is a legitimate bullpen option because of their cost and skill set. Matthews does have one more option year but at 28 is he really a good AAA candidate.  
 

I can’t understand why you would put Prielipp behind Matthews and Able on the rotation depth.  Able has a lot of upside, but he’s going to have to prove it for more than a handful of games and Prielipp had as about as good a rookie year as one could have hoped for. 
 

I’m not sure what to make of Zebby. So inconsistent.  He’s had three years to show what he can do and the results are inconclusive. His career really tracks the same as Varland. Let’s see what he can do in the bullpen. 

[1985Fan]

I think Ober pitched himself out of next year’s rotation with his start last night. Time to move on. Trade him for whatever you can get.