Ranking the Twins’ Last Three Second-Half Collapses

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

There is something uniquely frustrating about watching a baseball season slip away. For the Minnesota Twins, that frustration has become a familiar feeling. Over the last three seasons, the club has managed to turn promising or at least competitive first halves into increasingly disappointing finishes. 

The circumstances have been different each year, but the result has been remarkably similar: the Twins entered the second half with some level of hope and eventually found themselves watching the postseason from home.

The 2024 collapse was fueled by a front office that stood pat. The 2025 collapse was accelerated by a front office that did the exact opposite. And in 2026, Minnesota tried to buy its way out of trouble, only to discover that being on the fringes of a terrible American League does not necessarily mean a team is truly a contender.

So which collapse was the worst? Here is how the last three rank.

3. 2025 Twins

First half: 47-49 (.490), Second half: 23-43 (.348)

The 2025 Twins deserve the benefit of one important piece of context. By the time the season reached the trade deadline, Minnesota's direction had changed dramatically.

The front office went from trying to compete to conducting one of the largest firesales in recent MLB history. The Twins ultimately traded 10 Major League players in a matter of days, including Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, Ty France, Louis Varland, Brock Stewart, Danny Coulombe and Chris Paddack. That makes this collapse the easiest one to explain.

Minnesota was already a .500 team at the break, so there was plenty to criticize about the season. But once the organization decided it was no longer interested in winning in 2025, expecting the club to suddenly put together a strong second half was unrealistic.

The Twins went 23-43 after the break, finishing 18 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central and 17 games out of the Wild Card. That is ugly. But it was also the inevitable result of the organization's decision-making. The 2025 season was less a collapse than it was a controlled demolition.

2. 2024 Twins

First half: 54-42 (.563), Second half: 28-38 (.424)

This one still hurts. The 2024 Twins had legitimate reasons to believe they could make another postseason run. They were coming off a 2023 playoff appearance, had a strong first half and appeared to have a roster capable of competing in the American League Central.

Then came the trade deadline. Minnesota largely stood still. The Twins' lone addition was reliever Trevor Richards from Toronto. They did not add the starting pitcher many believed they needed, and they did not make the type of aggressive move that could have strengthened a team already dealing with injuries and roster weaknesses.

The organization defended its decision. The clubhouse, however, was less enthusiastic about the lack of activity with some players being “disheartened.” That made the subsequent collapse even more frustrating.

Minnesota went 54-42 before the All-Star break, winning 56.3% of its games. Afterward, the club went 28-38, winning only 42.4% of its games. The Twins stumbled all the way to the finish line, losing nine of their final 11 games. They finished 10.5 games behind the Guardians and four games out of the final Wild Card spot.

This was a team that had postseason expectations and needed help. Instead, the organization essentially bet that what it already had would be enough. It wasn't.

The 2024 collapse earns second place because the opportunity was there. Minnesota had a competitive team, had just demonstrated it could win in October and was in position to make the roster better. The decision to do nothing meaningful at the deadline became much harder to defend once the season disappeared.

1. 2026 Twins

First half: 48-49 (.495), Second half: 21-28 (.429)

This year's collapse ranks first because the Twins actually tried to prevent it. That makes it more frustrating. Minnesota entered the 2026 deadline sitting near the edge of the American League playoff race. Rather than selling, the front office bought. The Twins added Dean Kremer, A.J. Minter and Jeff Hoffman, while also choosing to keep impending free agents such as Ryan Jeffers and Josh Bell.

The strategy made sense on paper. There was a pathway to October. The problem may have been that the American League was so mediocre that the Twins mistook proximity for contention.

Minnesota was only 48-49 at the All-Star break, hardly the record of a dominant playoff club. Still, a weak league created an opportunity, and the Twins decided to take it. Since then, they have gone 21-28. That is a .429 winning percentage—hardly the kind of second-half surge necessary for a team trying to climb into the postseason.

Entering Thursday, Minnesota sits 6.5 games out of first place in the AL Central and 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. That's why 2026 takes the top spot. The Twins spent assets to make this team better. They kept players rather than cashing them in. They reinforced the bullpen and rotation. They decided that this was a season worth chasing. And yet, the results have barely changed.

The Verdict

These three collapses tell three very different stories. In 2024, the Twins failed to act when they had a legitimate chance. In 2025, they acted decisively, but they acted by dismantling the roster. In 2026, they acted like contenders and received results that looked more like those of a team that should have sold.

The 2025 collapse was the worst statistically, but there was at least an explanation for it. The front office made a conscious decision to prioritize the future over the present. The 2024 collapse may have been the most painful because the Twins were close enough to make a difference but chose not to push their chips into the middle. The 2026 collapse is the most concerning because the organization did push its chips forward.

Minnesota believed this team had enough to compete. Now, with the postseason slipping further away by the day, the Twins have to determine whether they misread the roster, misread the American League or simply underestimated how difficult it would be to turn a fringe contender into an actual playoff team.

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How would you rank the last three collapses? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Vanimal46]

2024 is #1 and it's not even close. They had a 90% chance of making the playoffs heading into September, peaked at 13 games over .500 on September 2nd, and fell flat on their face for a 9-18 record. 

[LastOnePicked]

2022's collapse deserves a shout-out, too. 62-55 turned into 78-84.

Ultimately, who knows what's going on with this franchise. I just wish ownership had the curiosity to find out and the will to fix it.

My guess is that too much emphasis keeps being placed on players with injury histories. Injuries are part of the awful "dumb luck" side of baseball, yes, but when season-derailing injuries keep happening to the same team, it suggests the cause is less a matter of luck and more an inability to draft, develop or sign players who can remain healthy for a full season. 

Maybe the Twins are so accustomed to shopping in the scratch-and-dent aisles that they don't pay close enough attention to warning signs of potential injury flare-ups. Maybe they rely too heavily on veterans who, by the time they arrive here and the calendar flips to August, are either marginal players or have a lotta soft-tissue scars.

There's also no pressure or expectation to win here from ownership, the FO or the fans, but that's a discussion for another time.

[Blyleven2011]

, after the fire sale of 2025 and no activity in the off season to rebuild the bullpen for 2026 the fans didn’t expect much from the team after the lousy finish of 2025 …

the twins exceeded fans expectations for 2026 pre deadline , the twins played more exciting baseball with some fight in them under Shelton …

the owners right sizing after the 2023 season ad reducing payroll has been the culprit to the collapses and the stupidity on how to run a baseball operations , first on the stupidity is not caring what the fans think , falvey and Rocco were good at that too …

after the 2023 playoffs and reducing payroll , the 2024 season was the biggest disappointment …

loyal fans watch the twins , loyal fans want nothing to do with the pohlads owing this team , Carl and Eloise are turning over in their graves watching their family running the team into the ground , biggest failure is hiring cheap inexperienced people in the baseball operations , I’m glad falvey and Rocco are gone , NOW GO OUT AND GO BIG TO SHOW US THAT YOU WHAT THIS FRANCHISE TO BE WINNERS , hire a very competent baseball knowledgeable FO to accomplish this …

[Whitey333]

2024 was the worst IMO.  Now the point of the article?  They choked each of the past three seasons.  Why?  Will this continue into next year?  Why?  What is it in the philosophical makeup of the Twins thats causing this?  Fans deserve answers.  Fans deserve better results. Im glad Falvey and Rocco are gone.  Shelton is much better than Rocco but the jury is still out.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

2024 is #1 and it's not even close. They had a 90% chance of making the playoffs heading into September, peaked at 13 games over .500 on September 2nd, and fell flat on their face for a 9-18 record. 

Seeing an expected success story fail was more disheartening (on top of the right sizing comments before it even began) for fans than either of the subsequent years. We are still writing the 2026 story. I think most fans believe we have turned some kind of proverbial corner or curve. 

[old nurse]

Pushing chips forward is adding Hoffman, Minter and middle reliever?  Adding 8 million to that low of a payroll is nothing. Pushing in chips would have been also adding a capable hitting 1b and a DH to solidify the lineup. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

2022's collapse deserves a shout-out, too. 62-55 turned into 78-84.

Ultimately, who knows what's going on with this franchise. I just wish ownership had the curiosity to find out and the will to fix it.

My guess is that too much emphasis keeps being placed on players with injury histories. Injuries are part of the awful "dumb luck" side of baseball, yes, but when season-derailing injuries keep happening to the same team, it suggests the cause is less a matter of luck and more an inability to draft, develop or sign players who can remain healthy for a full season. 

Maybe the Twins are so accustomed to shopping in the scratch-and-dent aisles that they don't pay close enough attention to warning signs of potential injury flare-ups. Maybe they rely too heavily on veterans who, by the time they arrive here and the calendar flips to August, are either marginal players or have a lotta soft-tissue scars.

There's also no pressure or expectation to win here from ownership, the FO or the fans, but that's a discussion for another time.

A Clemens, Bell, Keaschall, Lee who have largely been durable (Keaschall's HBP broke bone last year gets a flier) vs a Kirilloff, Buxton, Ryan, Lewis perpetually on the verge of breakdown gives the manager one less thing to worry about. Sometimes it is dumb luck. Sometimes it's smart attention to what am athletes body is saying.

Say what you want about Yoendrys Gomez, Taylor Rogers and Travis Adams. They've answered the call most every time they've been needed.

 

[GNess]

It's indicative of the issue that in two of the three collapses noted were teams below .500 at the break. The Twins at this time, simply don't have much of a winning/championship mindset - that is at the base of Twins' franchise culture..

[Saxophone Joe]

Can the patient die first before we conduct an autopsy? Plenty of time to wring our hands over what went wrong in 2026. What's the rush? 

Haven't you seen a 16-game win streak before? ;)

[MeleMouth]

In terms of talent, the 2024 collapse was worst by a lot. The 2026 team overperformed its talent in the first half, giving the mirage of a good team, but even then their last winning record was 12-11, so it's not like expectations of great success ever should have been realistic.

However, none hold a candle to 1977: Rod Carew hits .388 to win MVP, Lyman Bostock finishes #2 in AL BA, Larry Hisle leads the AL in RBIs, in first place for 66 days, last on August 16 at 68-51, ends the season fourth in the AL West, 17 games back, winning their last two games to finish 84-77, 

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Pushing chips forward is adding Hoffman, Minter and middle reliever?  Adding 8 million to that low of a payroll is nothing. Pushing in chips would have been also adding a capable hitting 1b and a DH to solidify the lineup. 

Add Kremer, a #5 starter, to those three middle relievers and they collectively pushed in two white chips.

[LastOnePicked]

25 minutes ago, Saxophone Joe said:

Haven't you seen a 16-game win streak before? ;)

I see you're backsliding into the "bargaining" stage, Joe. This team can't even win 16 games out of 32,

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

I think most fans believe we have turned some kind of proverbial corner or curve. 

Help me out with this, Patsky. I totally don't follow.

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Pushing chips forward is adding Hoffman, Minter and middle reliever?  Adding 8 million to that low of a payroll is nothing. Pushing in chips would have been also adding a capable hitting 1b and a DH to solidify the lineup. 

I took "pushing chips forward" to mean "didn't fold" as opposed to "all in".  At least I hope that's what the author meant

[RpR]

Which is worse, the Regular Season collapses, or the Post Season collapses of which the Twin have a goodly number of?

[Saxophone Joe]

13 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I see you're backsliding into the "bargaining" stage, Joe. This team can't even win 16 games out of 32,

ha! Looking in the mirror: 

[LastOnePicked]

10 minutes ago, RpR said:

Which is worse, the Regular Season collapses, or the Post Season collapses of which the Twin have a goodly number of?

It's an embarrassment of riches around here.

[Parfigliano]

23=24=25.

[Patzky]

42 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Help me out with this, Patsky. I totally don't follow.

The impending cutting of deadwood (it is impending isn't it? Larnach is a start,) and influx of arms like Rojas and Abel) The appearance of up to five young players by 2028 (hope two of Jenkins, Kaelen, Emmy, Vahn, Houston) become stars) and continued development of Keaschall and Lee. 

I think we all knew it wasn't gonna be a great year this spring. Labor strife notwithstanding I'm feeling better about 27 and much better about 28.

[Patzky]

42 minutes ago, RpR said:

Which is worse, the Regular Season collapses, or the Post Season collapses of which the Twin have a goodly number of?

What is this Post Season and where is the Post Office we go to to find it.

[Mortimerkenny21]

2 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

but even then their last winning record was 12-11,

56-55. July 31st. Not good since then.

[mikelink45]

This is the saddest of essays - trying to think of what is the worst of three straight collapses - how about saying we have long-term covid and it is time for a new doctor in the house. 

[ewen21]

If the team is below .500 at the ASB it is hard for me to say there was a "collapse".  For me a collapse is when the team is in first place or in contention then completely tanks late in the summer all the way to the end of the season.  Chances are if the team is at .476 at the ASB and then they are .412 the rest of the way they weren't good enough to warrant any conversation about a collapse.

 

Potato, pototto

[C-Gangster]

It was a good season it was a fun team. Remember we weren't even supposed to be even close to where we were so just be thankful and stop being greedy twins fans. Were not gonna be good for a while. Twins fans are too greedy for their own good. What if Rocco and falsely were just doing their jobs. It's rough but in retrospect a great showing by the twins and a fun team to watch.