Week in Review: Stuck in Neutral

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
The Twins opened the past week in exactly the way they needed: two blowout victories that ran their winning streak to three and inched them back in the direction of the .500 mark. Then, in customary fashion, they fumbled away their newfound momentum with back-to-back losses, and by the end of the week they were back where they started.

Generally speaking, a 3-3 week that included a road series against the division leaders would not be a bad thing, but the Twins have run out of time to stand in place. They need wins in bunches. They needed to complete the sweep over Detroit rather than letting Wednesday's game get away in extras. They needed to find a way to win two in Chicago. They didn't.

As things stand, their postseason odds are in the low single digits, with the Central title all but out of sight and four teams in front of them for the last Wild Card spot. With 19 games remaining, Minnesota needs to go 14-5 to finish with a winning record, and probably better than that to have a realistic shot at the playoffs.

Impossible? No. But extraordinarily unlikely, especially given their persistent inability to stay on a roll in the second half. With contention this year more or less out of the equation, our attention increasingly turns toward analyzing a more hopeful future and the players whom it will depend on.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/31 through Sun, 9/6
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 68-75)
Run Differential Last Week: +8 (Overall: -48)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (7.0 GB); 4.5 games out of WC

Latest Game Results

Game 138 | MIN 11, DET 1: Twins Pummel Fading Tigers Behind Strong Bradley Start

• Jeffers: 2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI

Game 139 | MIN 15, DET 2: Offense Tees Off in Second Consecutive Blowout Victory

• Lewis: 3-4, HR, 3 RBI 

Game 140 | DET 11, MIN 6 (12): Comeback Falls Short as Tigers Take Over in Twelfth

• Nance: 1.1 IP, 5 R (4 ER)

Game 141 | CWS 4, MIN 1: Matthews Gives Up Three Homers, Gets No Run Support

• Twins offense: 0-6 RISP, 9 LOB

Game 142 | MIN 6, CWS 4: Tides Turn in Middle Innings on Three-Run HR from Jeffers

• Jeffers: 1-4, HR, 3 RBI 

Game 143 | CWS 10, MIN 1: Sox Take Rubber Match in a Laugher on National Broadcast

• Twins bullpen: 3.2 IP, 9 ER, 7 BB

NEWS & NOTES

When rosters expanded to 28 on September 1st, the Twins called up one pitcher and one position player: right-hander Garrett Acton and utilityman Ben Ross. 

Acton is making his return after appearing for the Twins four times back in April; the hard-throwing 28-year-old righty adds some depth and length to the staff, and is essentially auditioning for an opportunity in next year's bullpen. He pitched three times last week, allowing one run over four innings in his first two appearances before enduring a disaster outing on Sunday night (0.1 IP, 4 ER). Ross is a newcomer to the big-league scene, making his MLB debut as a sub on Tuesday and also entering in the late innings of Wednesday's and Sunday's games. He's a nice functional fit as a right-hander who can play all over, but it remains to be seen if he can hit enough to make an impact. So far he's looked pretty overmatched at the plate.

To make room for Ross on the 40-man roster, the Twins designated Kyler Fedko for assignment and then released him, enabling him to quickly latch on with the Pirates. Fedko was already out for the year with a knee injury.

HIGHLIGHTS

It's been an encouraging start to Kaelen Culpepper's big-league career. His OPS sits at .801 through 25 games after another solid week that saw him notch six hits, including three doubles. He stole his first base and drove in four. 

Culpepper swings hard and when he connects the contact is loud. The question that will dictate his true upside is whether he can control the strike zone enough and avoid leaning too hard into pitch-hunting aggressiveness. The past two series were promising in this regard: Culpepper struck out just three times in 26 plate appearances, and he has a 5-to-4 K/BB ratio in his past 10 games after starting his career 15-to-2.

 

Ryan Jeffers stole the show offensively for the Twins. After struggling through most of August, he launched two homers on its final day then added two more in the first week of September, including a critical three-run blast in Saturday's win at Rate Field. Jeffers drove in 11 runs across six games to power the offense, with Victor Caratini notably getting zero starts all week. It can't be overstated how tough it's going to be to replace Jeffers' bat in the lineup when he departs this offseason. He owns the highest wOBA (.379) of any catcher in the majors with 300-plus plate appearances.

 

The 26-run explosion that took place between Monday and Tuesday against the Tigers helped a number of other slumping bats get on track. Royce Lewis had a three-hit, three-RBI game on Tuesday and a game-tying two-run single on Wednesday as part of a 7-for-23 week. He had as many extra-base hits in the first four games of September (3) as his final 20 in August. Kody Clemens homered twice, drove in four, and drew four walks. Josh Bell went 7-for-22 and drove in his 84th run, giving him the highest single-season total for any Twins hitter since 2021.

On the pitching side, Taj Bradley (7 IP, 1 ER) and Connor Prielipp (5 IP, 0 ER) were both excellent in the big wins over Detroit — much better than they needed to be, as it turned out. Bradley was less effective on Saturday (5 IP, 4 ER) but the offense picked him up to earn his team-leading 11th victory of the year. Strong finishes for Bradley and Prielipp would bode very well for the 2027 rotation's outlook.

Minnesota's deadline bullpen pickups also deserve a nod. A.J. Minter threw two scoreless innings and has a 0.66 ERA in 13 ⅔ innings since being acquired. Jeff Hoffman was absurdly dominant, striking out five of eight batters faced across his two outings. 

LOWLIGHTS

Relative to Culpepper, it hasn't been nearly as smooth of an entry to the big leagues for Walker Jenkins, at least from a production standpoint. He's batting .115 after going 1-for-17 in the past week. His lone hit was a home run, the first of his MLB career, but it came against a position player in Monday's blowout. 

 

Obviously you'd like a few more hits to drop in, but I'm not overly concerned with what I've seen. Stylistically there is plenty to like about Jenkins, who is generally taking good at-bats and putting some decent swings on the ball. He's also playing a solid center field, providing a sizable upgrade over Luke Keaschall and a hobbled Byron Buxton. 

I feel sort of the opposite way about Brooks Lee. His numbers look okay — he drove in six runs last week and is second on the team behind Bell with 79 RBIs on the season — but the underlying metrics portray a hitter with poor discipline and consistently low contact quality. He did help produce some runs last week but overall he was 7-for-25 with no walks, and he's running a sub-.300 OBP while now frequently batting second in the lineup. 

A charmed run for Tommy Nance in a Twins uniform came to a crashing halt on Wednesday night. He posted a 2.08 ERA with no home runs allowed through his first 17 appearances with Minnesota following his acquisition in early July, proving to be a nifty low-stakes pickup for the front office, but things unraveled under his watch in the 12th inning on Wednesday. 

The score was 6-6 before Detroit detonated for five runs on a two-run homer and three-run double, pulling away and robbing the Twins of their chance at a much-needed sweep. Nance gave up another three-run homer in Chicago on Sunday night, though two of the runs were charged to Acton. These were an ugly couple of outings, but probably an overdue regression to the mean for Nance, who still has a respectable 4.12 ERA with Minnesota. Like with Dean Kremer, we're getting a reality check on a middling talent that overperformed out of the gates with his new team. But like Kremer, Nance still has a chance to play a useful role on next year's team.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Joe Ryan is set to rejoin the Twins in a final desperation push for the playoffs. (Or maybe just as much to showcase his health for offseason trade suitors.) He threw three innings for St. Paul in a rehab start on Tuesday, and then reportedly came out of a bullpen session over the weekend feeling good. It sounds like the plan is for him to start Monday's series opener in Detroit.

 

Assuming he comes back looking healthy and strong, Ryan can be a difference-maker for the Twins, who have received very little from their two All-Stars in the second half. He'll be in line to make four starts over the remaining three weeks of games, including two in the coming week. Presumably Ryan's return will bump Prielipp to the bullpen for workload management reasons.

As for Minnesota's other All-Star, a return to action this year is less likely and certainly less imminent. Buxton refuses to call it quits on this season, even as he acknowledges that hip surgery in the offseason is inevitable. I respect his grit, but I think it's best for all parties if Buxton shuts it down and shifts focus to the next step in resolving this chronic hip issue. I suspect he'll reach the same conclusion within the next week or so unless the Twins go on a serious run.

The specific nature and recovery timeline of Buxton's surgery, both yet to be determined, will be among the biggest question marks looming for the team entering this offseason.

LOOKING AHEAD

Though nothing has been officially announced, the expectation is that Ryan will be activated to start the series opener in Detroit, which would also line him up to face Cleveland in the finale of the weekend series at Target Field. Not to put too fine a point on it, but the Twins need to go 5-1 or better this week to maintain any credibility in the postseason race.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7: TWINS @ TIGERS — TBD v. RHP Troy Melton
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 8: TWINS @ TIGERS — RHP Dean Kremer v. RHP Drew Anderson
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9: TWINS @ TIGERS — RHP Zebby Matthews v. RHP Keider Montero
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11: GUARDIANS @ TWINS — LHP Parker Messick v. RHP Taj Bradley
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12: GUARDIANS @ TWINS — RHP Gavin Williams v. RHP Bailey Ober
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13: GUARDIANS @ TWINS —LHP Joey Cantillo v. TBD

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[Kummel]

Lee "drove in six runs last week and is second on the team behind Bell with 79 RBIs on the season — but the underlying metrics portray a hitter with poor discipline and consistently low contact quality."  Underlying metrics, schmetrics.  As noted, he's second on the team with RBIs and drove in 6 runs last week.  This year he's batted .314 with runners in scoring position, even better with bases loaded (he's hitting .500 with 22 RBI!) -- he's been clutch and for a Twins fan, that's heaven. Homered tonight for 23 on the year, more power than we have seen in him before.  In 2026 he's been at least an average MLB offensive player and defensively he's got 7 DRS, which is great.  He has been really solid at 3rd.   I was feeling pretty happy for him!

[Mike Sixel]

Lee has almost three fwar.....I really don't understand why people here don't like him. Truly. Mind. Boggling. 

[Mike Sixel]

Overall it's a bad team. With terrible leadership. 

[LastOnePicked]

Curse that McKistry! He ruined Jenkins' timing at the plate ... maybe for the rest of the year. 😀

A few fun games this week. And the losses at this point only potentially improve draft position, so no worries there.

A .500 record is still on the table. But so are 90 losses.

 

[Nick Nelson]

43 minutes ago, Kummel said:

Lee "drove in six runs last week and is second on the team behind Bell with 79 RBIs on the season — but the underlying metrics portray a hitter with poor discipline and consistently low contact quality."  Underlying metrics, schmetrics.  As noted, he's second on the team with RBIs and drove in 6 runs last week.  This year he's batted .314 with runners in scoring position, even better with bases loaded (he's hitting .500 with 22 RBI!).  Homered tonight for 23 on the year, more power than we have seen in him before.  In 2026 he's been at least an average MLB offensive player who is good in the clutch and defensively he's got 7 DRS, which is great.  He has been really solid at 3rd.   I was feeling pretty happy for him!

I don't mean to take away from what he's accomplished. He's having a perfectly solid year. I just don't buy into the sustainability unless he starts improving stylistically. And I very much do not see him as a fit in the #2 spot in the lineup.

[Nick Nelson]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lee has almost three fwar.....I really don't understand why people here don't like him. Truly. Mind. Boggling. 

Among 105 players with 500 plate appearances this year, he ranks 103rd in xwOBA. Pretty much that simple. You might not care about a metric like that but it's something front offices pay attention to.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Buxton needs to shut it down and get that hip right. Even if we somehow get into the playoffs, we'll have done it with Jenkins in CF. Playing through it has not worked. 

Since the move to 3B, Lee has been much closer to the player I was hoping he'd be. The defense is so much better. The bat has shown up. A sub .300 OBP is not good. Not someone I'd be batting 2nd. 

This seems to be how Jenkins operates. He's a little slow to adjust, but once he figures it out, he goes on a tear. Either way, this is great experience and will give him some stuff to work on during the off-season. The defense looks good in CF. 

Larnach looks awful in the field. If Ross and Gonzalez are mostly riding the bench, why not get ERod up instead and put him in LF? It seems odd to me the team doesnt want to see him at Target Field before he's out of options. 

 

[D.C Twins]

Nick... you are a great writer, but we have different perspectives when assessing 'neutral' .... I think the trade deadline is the best perspective and they most certainly have not been in 'neutral' since then. 

Too bad the people that are paid lots of money to run the team were not able to see the obvious when they were making decisions at that deadline. 

Oh well.... I'm still excited to see the next generation getting out of the gates!

[JackWP76]

Lee is consistently left out of the highlights on this weekly post after having good weeks. I thought it was more of the same until he was somehow in the lowlights. A .280 batting average was actually used as an insult? Very, very agenda driven.

[Peter]

It’s do or die time now!!! Losing series to white sox all but ended division run but have slim shot at wild card. Let’s hope for the best and expect the worst. I’ll still watch every game with hopes twins can get on run and steal wild card spot. Next year and beyond will be way better as culpepper/jenkins are getting valuable experience along with rest of team playing meaningful games in September!

[mikelink45]

I love the defense of Lee - I happen to agree with the comments.  

I think we all regret the FO missing out on Jeffers - to extend or trade.  He is going to do well in the FA frenzy.  I think that Tom talk big Pohlad might want to push the QA on him.  If he takes it we have a good catcher for another year and another option to trade him.  If not we get something.

Lewis and Lee always seemed like a package - I am much lower on Lewis.

In this era where the BP must pitch multiple innings everyday it is inevitable that there will be some blow ups with an average pen like ours.  It is happening elsewhere as well.  Morris has been pushed to the limit with a 9.82 era over his last seven games.  There is my lowlight.

Larnach was another miss - I know they almost traded him to Houston - his post all-star performance matches past seasons and makes his first half a mirage.  Last 30 games 170/235/298.  Another big lowlight. 

Not forcing Buxton on to IL and opening roster to Rodriguez is another mistake by leadership.  

[HarmonK03]

31 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Not forcing Buxton on to IL and opening roster to Rodriguez is another mistake by leadership.

Buxton is on the IL, they chose to call up Gonzalez instead of Rodriquez because they continue to think there are no at bats available for Rodriquez.

[Hunter4848]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

Buxton is on the IL, they chose to call up Gonzalez instead of Rodriquez because they continue to think there are no at bats available for Rodriquez.

Buxton should have been on the IL the entire last month

[Parfigliano]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lee has almost three fwar.....I really don't understand why people here don't like him. Truly. Mind. Boggling. 

I didn't understand it last year.

[Parfigliano]

10 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Among 105 players with 500 plate appearances this year, he ranks 103rd in xwOBA. Pretty much that simple. You might not care about a metric like that but it's something front offices pay attention to.

Maybe they shouldn't so much.

[HarmonK03]

11 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Among 105 players with 500 plate appearances this year, he ranks 103rd in xwOBA. Pretty much that simple. You might not care about a metric like that but it's something front offices pay attention to.

At some point baseball has to get back to watching what is happening on the field not on the computer.  

[TheLeviathan]

Neutral is about right.  Rather than commit to a strategy the Twins keep throwing the car from reverse to neutral to drive without any real sense of a plan.

The best part?  All while the car is moving.  It's working exactly like that strategy would work if you did that with your actual car.

[Blyleven2011]

Our leadership ( front office and ownership ) is stuck in reverse , our players are stuck in neutral which lacks a killer instinct ( it’s improving this year ) as it has been a better team to watch ..

the players need to be more consistent on consistency , the front office really blew the deadline by not trading Jeffers and company , they hung on to Jeffers and added some bullpen just to please the fan base and try and show that they are trying to go big ( it hasn’t increased attendance nor has it impacted the players performances ) ….
Well they need to go home and figure out how to run a team …

love of the game might help instead of false hope …

[Saxophone Joe]

Our 9-63 record when down after 6 innings has gotta be near, if not the bottom of, the worst in MLB. Been especially bad in that category over the last 5 weeks or so. “Resilient” overall, ok, but not exactly the comeback kids. 

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I don't mean to take away from what he's accomplished. He's having a perfectly solid year. I just don't buy into the sustainability unless he starts improving stylistically. And I very much do not see him as a fit in the #2 spot in the lineup.

The unfortunate fact that Lee is hitting 2nd is just one of the signals that this team needed to be retooled this season.  Lee is a decent player who should hit 6th or 7th on a team that is a legit contender.  What they needed to do was add talent and they managed to find a way to get next to nothing for players that could have brought it the talent needed to get to the next level. 

We need only look at Chicago to see a stark contrast.  They would not be looking at a playoff birth if not for the acquisition of Miguel Vargas who was acquired for Michael Kopech and Chase Meidroth who was acquired in the Crochett trade.  Braden Montgomery and Kyle Teel also acquired in the Crochett trade.  They have two drafted position players (Montgomery / Antonacci)  who are contributing and the other player who has contributed is Murakami who of course was a free agent.  

[Road trip]

Neutral isn't a bad description for the week, and for the year. The Twins have been pretty much what most of us thought they were in March.  They project to win 75 games, give or take a few, as expected.  There were some pleasant surprises this year (Clemens, Lee, Taj, Zebby, Gomez) along with some real disappointments (Wallner, Royce, SWR, Caratini) and of course the usual assortment of guys who got hurt, especially young pitchers.

The Twins seemed to play harder, but there were still plenty of mental errors and fielding miscues.  I think they have been playing slightly better under Shelton.

The FO, yes, still in neutral, but they don't get a passing grade.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

I didn't understand it last year.

These are the kinds of comments that befuddle me. Lee had the 7th-worst OPS and 10th-worst WAR among all MLB players last year. What is confusing about criticizing that performance? I get that some people feel I'm being too hard on him this year which is fair but he was objectively very bad last year, and 2024.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

At some point baseball has to get back to watching what is happening on the field not on the computer.  

The computer is just measuring what happens on the field, though. And what it's telling us is: Brooks Lee doesn't hit the ball hard consistently, doesn't draw walks, doesn't control the zone, and doesn't run well. He does pull the ball in the air and he can hit some home runs, which I'm not discrediting. I just haven't been overly impressed by the totality of his game.