DJL44 Old-Timey Member Posted Tuesday at 03:18 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:18 PM 4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said: I think the disconnect here is the difference between doing very defensible things at the deadline and "going big" at the deadline. The article isn't about whether or not the trades are defensible, they got fair value, or they were buyers. The article is about Tom Pohlad proving he wasn't a "half measures" guy and that he "went big." He didn't. He didn't go big. He went half measure. Which makes sense. It's the type of investment this team deserved. What I (and I believe others, but won't speak for them) am disagreeing with is the premise that the Twins "went big." They didn't. By any measure. This deadline was absolutely a "half measure." The article claims it wasn't. That's what I disagree with. Tom Pohlad didn't at all prove he'd "go big" over the last couple weeks. Thank goodness. Going big would have been stupid for a team with a losing record at the trade deadline. chpettit19, annismark, Major League Ready and 4 others 6 1
LA Vikes Fan Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:19 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:19 PM 1 hour ago, chpettit19 said: I'm going to stick with my answer from the last article about Pohlad proving himself, he can't prove himself in anything in a year. Isn't the idea supposed to be that there was some drastic change in how the Twins will be run now that Tom is in the big chair? 1 deadline can't prove that. The Mahle/Lopez deadline was a bigger "go big" deadline than this. They've done a stand-alone "go big" deadline before. The question isn't whether or not Pohlad will "go big" for a deadline, it's whether or not he'll go big year after year after year when it makes sense. Hoffman, Kremer, Minter, and Nance sets a pretty low bar for "going big," so, if this is what will impress fans, he has a great opportunity to "go big" for many years. Assuming they aren't just setting themselves up to sell the team after the new CBA. And 1 last note on the money thing. Well, 2 last notes. 1. The payroll is still at an embarrassingly low number. Again, if this is what impresses fans, good for him. 2. They still gave up more in prospects (likely Hill instead of a lower arm) to get money back. So, even his "go big" included getting money back. So, one last time, if this is what impresses fans, he's in a great spot to impress them for a while because the bar has not been set high. It's funny, I find myself "liking" the first 3 posts, even thought they express pretty different viewpoints on whether this deadline was better, whether it was an "improvement" or a "drastic change". And I think those two phrases explain the difference in viewpoints. Was the Twins behavior this deadline an "improvement" over the last couple of years? Absolutely for the reasons explained in the article and I don't think anyone can cogently argue otherwise. Was that behavior a "drastic change"? Absolutely not. A drastic change would have been emptying the farm system for a pitcher like Skubal, trading multiple top 15 ranked prospects for a Soriano and Zeferjahn package, or trading serious prospects for guys like Luis Arraez or Adley Rutschman. So in a sense, everybody is basically correct – this was an improvement but not emblematic of a drastic change. I would argue that the Twins took exactly the right of approach, although I might quibble a little about value given versus value received. To start off with, this team is decent but it is not a contender or even really very good. The Twins' record very accurately reflects what they are, a slightly above average team with enough holes that brings them back to average or slightly below. This is not a team that you empty the farm system to augment. It's a team where you try to fill some of the holes, see if that lifts you to an above average team, and try to take advantage of the weak division and league to sneak into the playoffs and add some excitement at the end of the season. This team simply isn't good enough for you to mortgage the future in the hopes of reaching the World Series or even the league championship series. Maybe that team is next year if guys like Jenkins, Emma, and Culpepper come up and immediately produce, maybe it's in 2028 after they've had some seasoning and have been joined by the likes of Houston and Quick, or maybe it's never for this group. One thing we know for sure, it ain't this year. I like what they did. The bullpen was a clear weakness and they traded for two of the top five relievers traded (maybe even two of the top three with the Weaver being the other), and three of the top eight traded. They did it by giving up one good prospect in Hill, one decent/maybe possible MLB prospect in Klein, and a bunch of lottery tickets with upside. In return, they got Hoffman who was the closer for a World Series team last year, Minter who was in the Braves bullpen when they won the World Series in 2021 and had seven strikeouts in 4.2 innings in that WS, and Nance who had a 1.99 ERA in 2025 and also pitched in last year's World Series. They also picked up a starter who has been a middle to back end rotation guy in the past and is now kind of a crapshoot. Not a bad haul for not giving up a whole lot. If that's not an improvement over the last couple of years, I don't know what is. Whether it's a "go big or go home" moment (whatever that's trite phrase actually means) depends entirely on your perspective. Now it's up to the players. To get to 85 wins they need to go 29 – 20 the rest of the way, a .592 winning percentage. 85 wins should get them into the playoffs and has a better than 50/50 chance of winning the division. They were 15 – 9 in July, so essentially the need to repeat July twice in August and September. Is it possible? Absolutely, they've shown they can play at that level. Is it likely? I wouldn't say it's the most likely result, I see it more as a 50/50 proposition. I think their record from this point forward is going to be heavily dependent on the bullpen's performance which is in turn dependent on the three bullpen arms they just got, continued performance from the rotation (something very much in doubt), and Lewis, Keaschall, Bell, Jeffers, Lee, and Clemens all having an OPS of at least.750 for the rest of the season with at least three of them over .800. At this point, anything we get from Buxton has to be considered gravy. All possible, but failure in one area probably dooms them to a .500 or less season. Still, all in all, much better than at least I thought going in and much more interesting to watch. Usually by this point in the season, I started to tune out the Twins and focus my attention more on the Dodgers inexorable run to yet another division title (yawn) but this year I will keep with Twins, at least for now. Big step up. chpettit19, Over The Hill Again, jmlease1 and 1 other 4
DJL44 Old-Timey Member Posted Tuesday at 03:25 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:25 PM If Jeffers told them he would turn down a QO as rumored, he did the team a huge favor. He said, keep me for the pennant race and you will still get your draft pick. LA Vikes Fan, laloesch, thelanges5 and 2 others 5
Hawkeye Bean Counter Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:26 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:26 PM 7 minutes ago, Brandon said: Kremer was a half measured. What they did in the bullpen was perfect really. The pen went from being one of the worst if not the worst to better than average. The rotation just got a filler. I hope Kremer pitches like his career norms and how he pitched for the Orioles this season is just getting rid of the rust. Kremer in years past is still a number 4/5 starter. There were better starters available with not too much more cost. If we liked Kremer, he was a likely DFA candidate at the end of the year. You could have given up a cheaper prospect to get him at the end of the season. HarmonK03, Brandon and Hunter4848 3
LA Vikes Fan Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:28 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:28 PM 16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said: I think the disconnect here is the difference between doing very defensible things at the deadline and "going big" at the deadline. The article isn't about whether or not the trades are defensible, they got fair value, or they were buyers. The article is about Tom Pohlad proving he wasn't a "half measures" guy and that he "went big." He didn't. He didn't go big. He went half measure. Which makes sense. It's the type of investment this team deserved. What I (and I believe others, but won't speak for them) am disagreeing with is the premise that the Twins "went big." They didn't. By any measure. This deadline was absolutely a "half measure." The article claims it wasn't. That's what I disagree with. Tom Pohlad didn't at all prove he'd "go big" over the last couple weeks. What does it even mean to "go big or go home"? I think that is one of those hackneyed business phrases like "creative synergies" or "we're going to think outside the box". I don't think any of these phrases actually mean anything in particular. They are completely contextual. They mean very different things to different people, and mean very different things in different contexts. I actually "liked" your post because I think we agree in concept - the Twins did good things to improve the team but they didn't swing for the fences or take big risks by any stretch. I also agree that this is not the team for which you swing for the fences or take big future risks for this year. Is that "going big" in context? I have absolutely no idea. Nor do I care. All I know is the team is better today than it was yesterday and that will make the season more fun. DJL44, chpettit19, Wedman13 and 1 other 4
chpettit19 Community Moderator Posted Tuesday at 03:28 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:28 PM 7 minutes ago, DJL44 said: Thank goodness. Going big would have been stupid for a team with a losing record at the trade deadline. 1000% agree. This team didn't deserve going big. Which is what makes it weird to me they'd publish multiple articles in the last week about Pohlad "proving himself." I don't have any real complaints about what the Twins have done. It's not what I would've done, but I think it's all defensible. But Tom didn't show he wasn't "a half measure guy." Nashvilletwin, Linus, Hunter4848 and 2 others 5
PuckettProtector Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:33 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:33 PM This sudden Pohlad glazing is just as ridiculous as the Shaduer Sanders glazers. shimrod and Hunter4848 1 1
Brandon Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:33 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:33 PM 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said: If we liked Kremer, he was a likely DFA candidate at the end of the year. You could have given up a cheaper prospect to get him at the end of the season. Kremer was the only move I didn't care for but I loved the bullpen additions. I still give the Twins an 8-8.5 score for the deadline deals I wasn't expecting the Twins to go after the top rotation arms, but one of a higher mid level tier
LA Vikes Fan Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:35 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:35 PM 5 minutes ago, DJL44 said: If Jeffers told them he would turn down a QO as rumored, he did the team a huge favor. He said, keep me for the pennant race and you will still get your draft pick. I think this is very insightful. I actually think that may be what Jeffers was trying to accomplish. He wanted to stay with this team for this season because it's a very tight group and he thought they could have some at least modest success, while still giving himself the chance to go on the FA market next year and get a longer-term high-value deal that will set him up for life. This was the way to get that accomplished while still showing some respect to the team that nurtured him through his development and to the guys in the clubhouse. I respect him for doing this if that's what happened. By the way, nothing wrong with Jeffers wanting to go on the FA market next year and get a longer-term high-value deal. These guys are lucky to get one shot set themselves up for life with a big contract. 90% of them never get that opportunity and only a handful get more than one chance. I can't begrudge anyone for taking that shot if they get it. He's earned it and he should take advantage of the opportunity. umterp23 and DJL44 2
chpettit19 Community Moderator Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM 6 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said: What does it even mean to "go big or go home"? I think that is one of those hackneyed business phrases like "creative synergies" or "we're going to think outside the box". I don't think any of these phrases actually mean anything in particular. They are completely contextual. They mean very different things to different people, and mean very different things in different contexts. I actually "liked" your post because I think we agree in concept - the Twins did good things to improve the team but they didn't swing for the fences or take big risks by any stretch. I also agree that this is not the team for which you swing for the fences or take big future risks for this year. Is that "going big" in context? I have absolutely no idea. Nor do I care. All I know is the team is better today than it was yesterday and that will make the season more fun. And that's why PR people tell guys like Tom to use those kinds of phrases. This isn't what I'd have done at the deadline, but I have no real problem with it. I think the Kremer deal is questionable in terms of value, but it's not outrageous by any means. I wouldn't have had any disagreement with an article along the lines of both of your responses to me. I don't know why the author felt the need to claim Tom proved anything about the "half measure" and "go big" quotes. It changes the context of the article and discussion. Tom didn't face plant in his first deadline in charge, but he hasn't shown anything drastically different than any other Pohlad. He couldn't have. In any realistic world, Tom had no shot at doing anything to show he's meaningfully different than Joe or Jim or Carl. It's why I questioned the article a few days ago about him proving himself and why I question this one. He couldn't prove anything unless he did something drastic which would've proved incompetence. It's going to take him years to show he's any different than the rest. Joe was getting praised a few years ago for being different when he spiked the payroll. That took an awfully quick turn. This article should've just been a nice tip of the cap to the Twins at the deadline. Just stick to discussing the trades, how defensible they are, and where the Twins can go from here. Making it into a praise piece on Tom confirming he's a "go big" guy was a poor decision. Linus, NYCTK, DJL44 and 3 others 6
Hawkeye Bean Counter Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:44 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:44 PM 11 minutes ago, Brandon said: Kremer was the only move I didn't care for but I loved the bullpen additions. I still give the Twins an 8-8.5 score for the deadline deals I wasn't expecting the Twins to go after the top rotation arms, but one of a higher mid level tier I think the Kremer deal will be viewed as the best of the 3 most likely in hindsight 2-3 years down the road. I think he will be a solid player for the next year and 2 months and could possibly be flipped going into next year. I also think Reyes has a high probability of washing out. Hoffman I like, but Dasan Hill with a little more control is a top 20 arm in the minor leagues.
LA Vikes Fan Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:45 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:45 PM 1 minute ago, chpettit19 said: And that's why PR people tell guys like Tom to use those kinds of phrases. This isn't what I'd have done at the deadline, but I have no real problem with it. I think the Kremer deal is questionable in terms of value, but it's not outrageous by any means. I wouldn't have had any disagreement with an article along the lines of both of your responses to me. I don't know why the author felt the need to claim Tom proved anything about the "half measure" and "go big" quotes. It changes the context of the article and discussion. Tom didn't face plant in his first deadline in charge, but he hasn't shown anything drastically different than any other Pohlad. He couldn't have. In any realistic world, Tom had no shot at doing anything to show he's meaningfully different than Joe or Jim or Carl. It's why I questioned the article a few days ago about him proving himself and why I question this one. He couldn't prove anything unless he did something drastic which would've proved incompetence. It's going to take him years to show he's any different than the rest. Joe was getting praised a few years ago for being different when he spiked the payroll. That took an awfully quick turn. This article should've just been a nice tip of the cap to the Twins at the deadline. Just stick to discussing the trades, how defensible they are, and where the Twins can go from here. Making it into a praise piece on Tom confirming he's a "go big" guy was a poor decision. Well said. Hey, let's have fun the rest of the season with this team. It might actually be a fun season. Less on Tom Pohlad, more on baseball. DJL44, Woof Bronzer and chpettit19 2 1
thelanges5 Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:48 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:48 PM Not sure if I’d say he went BIG, but at least he went this year. I’m glad they pushed in some chips and made the bullpen better while also giving the rotation more depth. 49 games left and anything can happen. Meaningful ball in August-September, LFG! Wedman13 and Brandon 2
Brandon Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:48 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:48 PM 1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said: I think the Kremer deal will be viewed as the best of the 3 most likely. I think he will be a solid player for the next year and 2 months and could possibly be flipped going into next year. I also think Reyes has a high probability of washing out. Hoffman I like, but Dasan Hill with a little more control is a top 20 arm in the minor leagues. Dasan Hill needs a lot more than a little. He needs to cut his walk rate in half. That also means he is wild in the strike zone. That will cause problems as he plays against higher competition. But yes he has the potential to be great. I have him pegged for bullpen duty, if he comes up.
bean5302 Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:55 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:55 PM I'm not impressed with taking on what we did in payroll. Like whoop de doo. Mintner $3.4MM Hoffman $7.3MM Kremer $1.75MM The Twins were in the bottom 5 of MLB in terms of moves made. They had an obvious need for a playoff caliber starter and didn't do it. The only legitimate reason Gausman is not on the roster is because the Pohlads didn't want to spend. laloesch, Woof Bronzer, chpettit19 and 1 other 4
Hawkeye Bean Counter Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 03:56 PM Posted Tuesday at 03:56 PM 1 minute ago, Brandon said: Dasan Hill needs a lot more than a little. He needs to cut his walk rate in half. That also means he is wild in the strike zone. That will cause problems as he plays against higher competition. But yes he has the potential to be great. I have him pegged for bullpen duty, if he comes up. He is 20 with extremely long limbs. With his stuff he just needs to get down to around a little higher or lower than 4 walks. His last start he threw 54 pitches with 43 strikes and zero walks. He had 6 strike outs in 3 innings. He has an absurd 15k/9. So yes there is some bullpen risk, which so be it - that would be a hell of a weapon in the bullpen. If he gains a little more Control he is a #1/#2. Thats the risk Brandon. You gave up 6 years of a dynamic arm, for 1 year and 2 months of a closer. Brandon 1
LyleCole Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 05:43 PM Posted Tuesday at 05:43 PM This was a half measure. I get people are excited that they did not dump players and actually acquired some arms that improves the pitching staff. That is absolutely true. But none of the acquisitions are from the top tier of available players. Jeff Hoffman, 3 or 4 years ago? Yeah. Today, he has some question marks although he has pitched better in the 2nd half. Kremer? He was a 4th type of guy most of his career but his 2026 season is down. Same with AJ Minter. We are buying these guys not just low, but career level lows hoping they can turn it around. And, there are legitimate questions about whether not trading Larnach and Jeffers, and even Joe Ryan, are in the long term interest of the team. Sure, not trading them at the 2026 deadline will help this team with a chance to squeak into a 3rd wild card slot (and, perhaps win the very weak division). But I for one believe that is not the goal ownership should be seeking. That is a half measure, and frankly, I think ownership has rested on these half laurels and used them as an excuse not to spend money on the team: "We made the playoffs (and got bounced) what more do you want?" Hunter4848 and chpettit19 2
Craig Arko Old-Timey Member Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM I’d call this maybe a 72.457% measure.
Cory Engelhardt Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM Posted Tuesday at 06:22 PM I think they can be good enough to win in the playoffs with the additions they made, not trading Jeffers for prospect(s) and also assuming that Ryan finds his form, Buxton can come back and be close to the first few months of the year production wise, Jenkins and Culpepper and both come up and produce, and they have good health in the rotation. That’s a lot of assumptions most likely. If nothing else, it’s interesting and they will be playing fun baseball the next few months. I also hope there isn’t a long lockout after the season. Hopefully, if Tom is “go big or go home” this shows up over the coming seasons when roster planning. But for the moves they made now and the upcoming debuts, I’m certainly more excited to watch the next two months compared to last season at this time USAFChief, Hunter4848, 90stwinskid and 1 other 3 1
90stwinskid Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 07:31 PM Posted Tuesday at 07:31 PM Not sure I would characterize these moves as "go big or go home." That said, I am happy to see them back up their big talk and address some of our very real bullpen issues. The sick puppy in me is also chuckling as Yankees fans complain about their deadline moves. Yankees schadenfreude is real.
jmlease1 Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 07:49 PM Posted Tuesday at 07:49 PM 3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said: He is 20 with extremely long limbs. With his stuff he just needs to get down to around a little higher or lower than 4 walks. His last start he threw 54 pitches with 43 strikes and zero walks. He had 6 strike outs in 3 innings. He has an absurd 15k/9. So yes there is some bullpen risk, which so be it - that would be a hell of a weapon in the bullpen. If he gains a little more Control he is a #1/#2. Thats the risk Brandon. You gave up 6 years of a dynamic arm, for 1 year and 2 months of a closer. Here's the thing though: guys with great stuff but no control put up numbers like this in A-ball. You get kids going up there looking to swing against him without looking to see if he can find the plate. (Twins saw some of this with Chris Vallimont, another guy with great stuff and no idea where it was going. He's now back with MN after getting a cup of coffee in MLB with Balto and then bouncing down to Indy ball before getting another chance in AA. He's 29 now and passed through 5 franchises) The top end of his outcomes is 6 years as a dominant starting LHP...but that's not the realistic outcome. That's the 1%. Most likely outcome is he can't find the plate often enough without taking something off his stuff, and they shift him to the bullpen where you can tolerate higher BB/9 if they're matched with tons of K's and he gets a chance or three in MLB because he's left-handed and alive. Because that's the most likely outcome with guys like this. If he cuts his BB/9 down under 4 next season and is sitting in AA at 21, then this is going to start looking shaky. But if he's still in A-ball with a BB/9 over 4 (or god help him 5) then the odds are pretty good we and everyone else will get another chance at him in a couple of years in the Rule 5. The ERA last season in Ft. Myers covered some sins. He's got a lot of work to do in High A because you simply can't walk that many guys. DJL44 1
clone52 Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 07:57 PM Posted Tuesday at 07:57 PM 6 hours ago, The Great Hambino said: The more I think about this, the more I'm not loving the course they're taking here. They bought a little, but no more than the teams they're chasing in the division They bought, but without doing anything to improve an offense that's pretty clearly regressing to the mean after an unsustainable run of production with RISP (I think I saw they're something like 21st since the deadline in runs scored, which is more in line with their overall metrics) They bought with a little bit of an eye toward the future in getting two players controlled beyond this season, but one of them (Kremer) will be a strong DFA candidate if he doesn't turn his season around (it would be bad roster management for a team on a limited budget to pay arb-3 prices for a swingman/AAAA depth type of starter, which is what Kremer could be next year if his current form holds) They bought and took on salary, but only to an extent (how far down the prospect rankings does the return for Hoffman slide from Hill if they were willing to take on his full salary next year?) They bought while retaining Jeffers (a month ago I would've included Ryan here, but his current shaky form paired with his overall second half history probably suppressed his value enough to make it a moot point for now), but at what opportunity cost given the wild market for catchers and the Yankees' obvious need for one? Given what an injured Rutschman went for, I gotta believe it was worth much more than a comp pick plus two months. They bought and supposedly garnered some goodwill for themselves with fans in the process (I seriously doubt this being any sort of meaningful amount of goodwill from most fans, but I'll play along), but are they just kicking the proverbial can down the road until the guys they're so proud of retaining end up walking in free agency anyway? In other words, is this just a goodwill sugar rush? Put those all together, and they sound neither like going big nor like going home. They sound like half measures Kremer coming of an injury, right? Would seem foolish to DFA him unless he completely tanks the rest of the year and his arm is just dead. If there is any chance of him getting back to his 2022-2025 form, then his arbitration salary will be a bargain for a team who doesn't have a ton of SP depth. Really just seems like Home Runes are way up. Walks are fine, Strikeouts are better than normal, a few more hits but not eggregiously so. I'd be suprised if he doesn't turn it around.
IndianaTwin Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 08:13 PM Posted Tuesday at 08:13 PM 4 hours ago, DJL44 said: If Jeffers told them he would turn down a QO as rumored, he did the team a huge favor. He said, keep me for the pennant race and you will still get your draft pick. I agree, though I suspect it wasn't really new information. Many have noted that if there had been enough mutual interest in an extension, it would have happened by now. The FO likely has a good handle on what Jeffers thinks he's going to pursue. If it's something like the 4/$80M or 5/$90M that I suspect it's going to take (or at least would it take right now for them to avoid the FA process), it's pretty much a no-brainer that he would turn down a QO as well.
IndianaTwin Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 08:16 PM Posted Tuesday at 08:16 PM 2 hours ago, Craig Arko said: I’d call this maybe a 72.457% measure. I don't think you are allowed that many significant figures, but I think you're in the right range.
Craig Arko Old-Timey Member Posted Tuesday at 08:19 PM Posted Tuesday at 08:19 PM 1 minute ago, IndianaTwin said: I don't think you are allowed that many significant figures, but I think you're in the right range. Consider it lucky I didn’t make it an irrational number. Woof Bronzer 1
The Great Hambino Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 08:37 PM Posted Tuesday at 08:37 PM 24 minutes ago, clone52 said: Kremer coming of an injury, right? Would seem foolish to DFA him unless he completely tanks the rest of the year and his arm is just dead. If there is any chance of him getting back to his 2022-2025 form, then his arbitration salary will be a bargain for a team who doesn't have a ton of SP depth. Really just seems like Home Runes are way up. Walks are fine, Strikeouts are better than normal, a few more hits but not eggregiously so. I'd be suprised if he doesn't turn it around. To clarify, I didn't mean to suggest DFA'ing now or before the end of the season. He's needed now, even if he's only up right now over Zebby due to lack of options instead of current form. In fact, DFA probably wasn't the right term to use - nontender this offseason would be more accurate. Which if he doesn't turn things around, is absolutely on the table at $7ishMM* if he can't crack a rotation that next year could look like Ryan-Lopez-Bradley-Ober-Priellip-Abel-Matthews-Rojas, and that's not counting any other additions through trade or free agency or someone like Gallagher or CJ Culpepper stepping up. If he shows something the rest of the year? Sure, he can stabilize the back end of the rotation. But if not, I'd rather put that $7MM savings towards more of a ceiling-raiser if they're willing (or forced by a floor) to commit to more payroll in 2027 *Figure pulled out of thin air based on $5.25MM this year chpettit19 1
Hawkeye Bean Counter Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 08:44 PM Posted Tuesday at 08:44 PM 35 minutes ago, jmlease1 said: Here's the thing though: guys with great stuff but no control put up numbers like this in A-ball. You get kids going up there looking to swing against him without looking to see if he can find the plate. (Twins saw some of this with Chris Vallimont, another guy with great stuff and no idea where it was going. He's now back with MN after getting a cup of coffee in MLB with Balto and then bouncing down to Indy ball before getting another chance in AA. He's 29 now and passed through 5 franchises) The top end of his outcomes is 6 years as a dominant starting LHP...but that's not the realistic outcome. That's the 1%. Most likely outcome is he can't find the plate often enough without taking something off his stuff, and they shift him to the bullpen where you can tolerate higher BB/9 if they're matched with tons of K's and he gets a chance or three in MLB because he's left-handed and alive. Because that's the most likely outcome with guys like this. If he cuts his BB/9 down under 4 next season and is sitting in AA at 21, then this is going to start looking shaky. But if he's still in A-ball with a BB/9 over 4 (or god help him 5) then the odds are pretty good we and everyone else will get another chance at him in a couple of years in the Rule 5. The ERA last season in Ft. Myers covered some sins. He's got a lot of work to do in High A because you simply can't walk that many guys. Just to make sure we are talking about the same guy you are comparing Dasan Hill to Chris Vallimont who went to Mercyhurst was drafted in the 5th round and we got as PTBNL from Marlins for Diaz? The same Vallimont that generally has a 9,7K per a 9 in the minors and was never a top 100 prospect. The most likely outcome - being that he is 6'5" and only 20 that he will gain more control of those limbs and the walks will come down. My comparison is a more refined Brody Brecht 6'4" that is 3 years older. Similar K/9 numbers and both high walk numbers. Both picked in same draft - Brecht 38 and Hill 69. Both have a high risk of becoming relievers. I think Dasan will always be a higher walk pitcher, but I also think he lost some confidence this year. Baltimore likes to take these high octane arms and they convert several. Especially for the bullpen. Maybe he flounders, but my guess is he starts turning a corner which the last start may have been (zero walks) gains confidence and repeats at high A before going to AA and the lefty high octane arm will still be on track.
IndianaTwin Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 08:49 PM Posted Tuesday at 08:49 PM 28 minutes ago, Craig Arko said: Consider it lucky I didn’t make it an irrational number. Oh, there’s been lots of irrational on TD the last while!. 🤣 Craig Arko 1
Craig Arko Old-Timey Member Posted Tuesday at 08:58 PM Posted Tuesday at 08:58 PM 8 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said: Oh, there’s been lots of irrational on TD the last while!. 🤣 Since Dec 31st, 1969, apparently.
big dog Verified Member Posted Tuesday at 09:15 PM Posted Tuesday at 09:15 PM Well, maybe it was a 5/8 measure anyway.
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