Twins Missed a Golden Opportunity with Byron Buxton Roster Move

[HarmonK03]

30 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I think you're going to make a call on a Catcher this week. There's a very interesting article on this site by Greg Masterson about group interview he was involved in with Derek Falvey talking about how the trade deadline works. It helps me understand why most of the deals don't go down until Sunday even though I think or thought that it made more sense to do things sooner.

I think they'll make a move Sunday regarding the catching but I less and less think it will involve trading Ryan Jeffers. I think they may keep him and either trade Caratini or try to slip Alex Jackson through waivers. I think they are considering just keeping all three by putting Jeffers behind the plate 60% of the time and at DH 20% of the time to get his bat in the lineup, playing Caratini at C 30% of the time and first base 30% of the time, with Alex Jackson paying maybe twice a week, once behind the plate and once at 1B. I think they're finding that arrangement just doesn't work when you have a full-time DH like Josh Bell but he's hard to trade because he doesn't have much value and because what you trade him, you just lost one of your middle of the order bats and you don't have a replacement. Lisa and I try to think it through, all the roads pint to either trading Caratini or trying to sneak Jackson to AAA somehow.

They can't carry three catchers after the weekend if they don't make a trade.  Why are you forcing Caratini's bat into the lineup.  We have a first baseman, let him play there and see if you have solved the position for a few years.

We have to stop trying to fit in below average players into the lineup and get a regular lineup and play them.  Having guys like Clemens or Kreidler moving around should be it, but we are putting sub optimal lineups because we are trying to force players into the lineup.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

I keep asking this question, but if OPS is the criteria what does the number have to be.  Just for reference, Max Clark's OPS is .802 in the same league.

Max Clark has to be better than Outman to deserve starts in the Detroit outfield. Minnesota has better options than that already on the 26-man roster.

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Max Clark has to be better than Outman to deserve starts in the Detroit outfield. Minnesota has better options than that already on the 26-man roster.

Roden is not a better option, but even if you don't agree with that, we need a center fielder.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, HarmonK03 said:

Roden is not a better option, but even if you don't agree with that, we need a center fielder.

Keaschall is playing CF.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Not only should Gray not have been called up, I would've preferred he be released. Guy was bad at AAA too. We have most of the team in St Paul with over .800 OPS just waiting and this dude gets another chance? 

Actively trying to sabotage the team with this move. 

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Keaschall is playing CF.

It would be nice to have someone with a little more experience playing center field, the play he missed last night was due to lack of reps out there.  And Keaschall would make a better back up than Kreidler or Clemens.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Don't we want the Twins to be in that boat? I don't think they've done pre-arb extensions with ANYONE since Kepler and Polanco, let alone 1st year contract extensions.

If they believe in Jenkins and Culpepper. I'd love for them to sign a Pratt type deal. 

You'll find me much less concerned about all the stuff I'm currently concerned about in this regard. 

The Brewers have done it with Chourio, Pratt and Lara. 

Yeah... I'd like to get in that boat. 

[David HK]

I saw someone else with this idea, but, you want a LH stick? Why not Wallner? You might get lucky and get a bomb or two, plus you can showcase him as tradebait if he hits at all. 

Tristan Gray again?  Yipe.

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Keaschall is playing CF.

With all due respect, Luke is not and never will be an average centerfielder. 

 

[laloesch]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why skip Houston over Culpepper?

I suspect that Houston will quickly force the issue once he gets the call to St. Paul.      

[TheLeviathan]

I'd like to know their reasons but I can't fault the Twins for being patient.  His numbers are pretty good in AAA but they don't scream "what is this guy still doing there?"

I see that much more with Culpepper.  (I know his OPS trails Jenkins, but what he's doing as a SS, his age, etc makes him the more obvious call-up)

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, laloesch said:

I suspect that Houston will quickly force the issue once he gets the call to St. Paul.      

Entirely possible. But isn't it a little weird to jump your top SS prospect at AA over your top SS prospect at AAA?

I'd be much more surprised to see Houston in MLB in 2027 than Culpepper. Although, I'd have no problem seeing both of them end this season in a Twins jersey.

[Linus]

I want Jenkins up but only when his development in AAA is complete. I don’t know when that is but the Twins should. If they have determined it is best for Jenkins to play longer in AAA then I’m ok with it. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Linus said:

I want Jenkins up but only when his development in AAA is complete. I don’t know when that is but the Twins should. If they have determined it is best for Jenkins to play longer in AAA then I’m ok with it. 

Almost no players are fully deveolped in teh minors. They are keeping him down for the year of control. Maybe to keep him off the 40 in case next year is lost. 

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, Linus said:

I want Jenkins up but only when his development in AAA is complete. I don’t know when that is but the Twins should. If they have determined it is best for Jenkins to play longer in AAA then I’m ok with it. 

Have they decided it's best for Jenkins? Or best to keep his future earnings low?

Because I can tell what's not incomplete, his low strikeout and high walk rates, which are almost always the things that holds a AAA player back.

[TheLeviathan]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Almost no players are fully deveolped in teh minors. They are keeping him down for the year of control. Maybe to keep him off the 40 in case next year is lost. 

I could be wrong, but aren't we past the point where there is a distinction between now and, say, April of next year?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I could be wrong, but aren't we past the point where there is a distinction between now and, say, April of next year?

Mid-August is the date they get another year of control.....give or take. 

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

I keep asking this question, but if OPS is the criteria what does the number have to be.  Just for reference, Max Clark's OPS is .802 in the same league.

OPS doesn't have to be a final criteria at all. For instance, a AAA prospect might start the season very cold and then go on a major heater for the next 2 months but still have an OPS in the high 600's or low 700's despite slashing 850 or higher over those 2 months.  But the corresponding. 500 OPS in that dismal first month is holding down their overall numbers.

But while OPS is not the final criteria to make a comparison or decision, it still provides a basic floor for discussion. While every single player and every single situation is unique unto itself, a basic rule of thumb is that a AAA OPS will drop. 150-.200 points at the ML level. At least initially. That's due, obviously, to the talent level and experience of MLB players. 

Currently, I believe Jenkins is sitting 8th in OPS for St Paul. And that doesn't mean he isn't a natural talent and wouldn't come up and perform well immediately. I mean, who would you believe in more, Jenkins or Sabato? I think the answer would be Jenkins even though Sabato has the higher OPS. So it also comes down to age and talent and projection.

But Jenkins around .815 OPS at AAA would indicate a .615-.665 OPS initially ar the ML level based on this accepted criteria. But again, everyone is different. Jenkins might be ready, and such a natural, with such a good approach and sweet swing that he hits the ground running and never looks back. (The obvious caveat that all players have hot and cold spells).

Personally, I can't wait to see him come up. And I'm not one of those opposed to promoting young, top prospects aggressively. (Hello Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa)! I was pounding the table for Rodriguez to begin this season with the Twins.

So this might answer your question regarding OPS between the levels. One last time, as always, promotions and development are not linear.

Now, my issue with the OP in general is that I don't know if Jenkins debuting because Buxton is on a 10 day IL stint is really such a missed "golden opportunity". Now, Bell and/or Larnach is moved over the next few days and there's a legitimate, open spot for Jenkins to come up and play daily for an extended time frame...possibly the remainder of the season...I'm all in and would seriously question what is going on.

But 10 days and limited opportunity? I just don't see the fuss of it NOT being Jenkins brought up. But I will repeat, I wish there was a better option sitting there, that made sense, instead of Gray. 

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

OPS doesn't have to be a final criteria at all. For instance, a AAA prospect might start the season very cold and then go on a major heater for the next 2 months but still have an OPS in the high 600's or low 700's despite slashing 850 or higher over those 2 months.  But the corresponding. 500 OPS in that dismal first month is holding down their overall numbers.

But while OPS is not the final criteria to make a comparison or decision, it still provides a basic floor for discussion. While every single player and every single situation is unique unto itself, a basic rule of thumb is that a AAA OPS will drop. 150-.200 points at the ML level. At least initially. That's due, obviously, to the talent level and experience of MLB players. 

Currently, I believe Jenkins is sitting 8th in OPS for St Paul. And that doesn't mean he isn't a natural talent and wouldn't come up and perform well immediately. I mean, who would you believe in more, Jenkins or Sabato? I think the answer would be Jenkins even though Sabato has the higher OPS. So it also comes down to age and talent and projection.

But Jenkins around .815 OPS at AAA would indicate a .615-.665 OPS initially ar the ML level based on this accepted criteria. But again, everyone is different. Jenkins might be ready, and such a natural, with such a good approach and sweet swing that he hits the ground running and never looks back. (The obvious caveat that all players have hot and cold spells).

Personally, I can't wait to see him come up. And I'm not one of those opposed to promoting young, top prospects aggressively. (Hello Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa)! I was pounding the table for Rodriguez to begin this season with the Twins.

So this might answer your question regarding OPS between the levels. One last time, as always, promotions and development are not linear.

Now, my issue with the OP in general is that I don't know if Jenkins debuting because Buxton is on a 10 day IL stint is really such a missed "golden opportunity". Now, Bell and/or Larnach is moved over the next few days and there's a legitimate, open spot for Jenkins to come up and play daily for an extended time frame...possibly the remainder of the season...I'm all in and would seriously question what is going on.

But 10 days and limited opportunity? I just don't see the fuss of it NOT being Jenkins brought up. But I will repeat, I wish there was a better option sitting there, that made sense, instead of Gray. 

Buxton will miss more than ten days the rest of the year. 

[HarmonK03]

31 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

OPS doesn't have to be a final criteria at all. For instance, a AAA prospect might start the season very cold and then go on a major heater for the next 2 months but still have an OPS in the high 600's or low 700's despite slashing 850 or higher over those 2 months.  But the corresponding. 500 OPS in that dismal first month is holding down their overall numbers.

But while OPS is not the final criteria to make a comparison or decision, it still provides a basic floor for discussion. While every single player and every single situation is unique unto itself, a basic rule of thumb is that a AAA OPS will drop. 150-.200 points at the ML level. At least initially. That's due, obviously, to the talent level and experience of MLB players. 

Currently, I believe Jenkins is sitting 8th in OPS for St Paul. And that doesn't mean he isn't a natural talent and wouldn't come up and perform well immediately. I mean, who would you believe in more, Jenkins or Sabato? I think the answer would be Jenkins even though Sabato has the higher OPS. So it also comes down to age and talent and projection.

But Jenkins around .815 OPS at AAA would indicate a .615-.665 OPS initially ar the ML level based on this accepted criteria. But again, everyone is different. Jenkins might be ready, and such a natural, with such a good approach and sweet swing that he hits the ground running and never looks back. (The obvious caveat that all players have hot and cold spells).

Personally, I can't wait to see him come up. And I'm not one of those opposed to promoting young, top prospects aggressively. (Hello Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa)! I was pounding the table for Rodriguez to begin this season with the Twins.

So this might answer your question regarding OPS between the levels. One last time, as always, promotions and development are not linear.

Now, my issue with the OP in general is that I don't know if Jenkins debuting because Buxton is on a 10 day IL stint is really such a missed "golden opportunity". Now, Bell and/or Larnach is moved over the next few days and there's a legitimate, open spot for Jenkins to come up and play daily for an extended time frame...possibly the remainder of the season...I'm all in and would seriously question what is going on.

But 10 days and limited opportunity? I just don't see the fuss of it NOT being Jenkins brought up. But I will repeat, I wish there was a better option sitting there, that made sense, instead of Gray. 

I am not assuming this is a ten day stint for Buxton, considering he has been dealing with it before the all star break.  And if he is holding his own, you can find AB's for him, every other team does it, there is no reason you can't for him.  After this Royals series we need a shot in the arm, why not try it and see if you can get that from Jenkins.

[Cris E]

At this time of year I am not one to jump on odd roster states too hard, especially in a year where we've stated we're going to be active. If they bring in a couple new 25 man roster guys there will be churn and guys moving in and out, so Grey is likely just an easy one to DFA when the time comes.  Plus there's a lot we don't know (eg Lewis or Lee is quietly playing through something and could use a day off?) and this lets them rest during the week of chaos.  So it probably won't be a full week and thus won't matter that much.

All that said, I'd have showcased Wallner or brought up a young 40 man name like Gonzalez. 

(Just noticed that mlb.com still lists Keaschall as a 2B. Whatever...)

 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Have they decided it's best for Jenkins? Or best to keep his future earnings low?

Because I can tell what's not incomplete, his low strikeout and high walk rates, which are almost always the things that holds a AAA player back.

For sure, it’s done all the time but I don’t profess to know when a minor leaguer is ready short of complete domination in AAA which he hasn’t done yet. My main point is I want what is going to make him the best player in the shortest amount of time not necessarily to prop up some misguided playoff quest. 

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I want Jenkins up but only when his development in AAA is complete. I don’t know when that is but the Twins should. If they have determined it is best for Jenkins to play longer in AAA then I’m ok with it. 

He's got a ways to go still.

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd be much more surprised to see Houston in MLB in 2027 than Culpepper. Although, I'd have no problem seeing both of them end this season in a Twins jersey.

If they both get a real shot in the Majors by middle of next season (Culpepper should have been called up by now arguably), I'd be as happy as a clam at high tide.   

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, laloesch said:

If they both get a real shot in the Majors by middle of next season (Culpepper should have been called up by now arguably), I'd be as happy as a clam at high tide.   

I'm just going to assume clams like high tide 😄

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

It would be nice to have someone with a little more experience playing center field, the play he missed last night was due to lack of reps out there.  And Keaschall would make a better back up than Kreidler or Clemens.

That was a bad miss. He also had a great backup of the ball off the wall in right. I do think Keaschall is learning, and I like his speed, but I'd much prefer his defense to be in a corner instead. 

I think Jenkins' time is coming, and probably soon. 

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Mid-August is the date they get another year of control.....give or take. 

Thank you.  I hope that wasn't the reason for either Jenkins or Culpepper.

I just prefer the SS of the two.

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

At this time of year I am not one to jump on odd roster states too hard, especially in a year where we've stated we're going to be active. If they bring in a couple new 25 man roster guys there will be churn and guys moving in and out, so Grey is likely just an easy one to DFA when the time comes.  Plus there's a lot we don't know (eg Lewis or Lee is quietly playing through something and could use a day off?) and this lets them rest during the week of chaos.  So it probably won't be a full week and thus won't matter that much.

All that said, I'd have showcased Wallner or brought up a young 40 man name like Gonzalez. 

(Just noticed that mlb.com still lists Keaschall as a 2B. Whatever...)

 

You do realize these games still count before the deadline.  Now is not the time to get cute but show some urgency and put your best 26 man roster together for every game.  And every day Gray is on this roster they have not put together the best roster possible whether for 5 days or 5 weeks.