Twins Missed a Golden Opportunity with Byron Buxton Roster Move

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

I think this move to Gray shows the impact of the analytics staff on this organization.  I have a hard time believing that Shelton was pounding on his desk for Gray to be back up here.  The only reason is because he hits left handed and the analytics nerds love their match ups regardless of results.

I don't know, Shelton played Gray WAY more than I would have when he was here before. He was playing him 3 or 4 times a week up until he was demoted. Not sure Shelton is as anti-Gray as most of us.

[HarmonK03]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

I don't know, Shelton played Gray WAY more than I would have when he was here before. He was playing him 3 or 4 times a week up until he was demoted. Not sure Shelton is as anti-Gray as most of us.

Or he is getting input from the analytics staff on the lineups.  I don't know how much if any and no one does but I don't think Joe Maddon was way off the mark with his concerns on the impact of the analytic staffs.  

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Marek Houston is batting .327 with a .921 OPS. He has been on base in 22 straight games. Yes, yes, I know it is "just AA."....but he could be brought up now and start his career at SS.  Or would you rather have Tristan Gray at SS when Kreidler is in CF? 

Why skip Houston over Culpepper?

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, HarmonK03 said:

Or he is getting input from the analytics staff on the lineups.  I don't know how much if any and no one does but I don't think Joe Maddon was way off the mark with his concerns on the impact of the analytic staffs.  

 

Oh, generally I fully agree with that. The FO has reached too far into the clubhouse in modern MLB organizations. I just don't think Shelton was fighting tooth and nail to keep Gray out of the lineup and was being told he had to put him in. 

[arby58]

12 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Based on that then Roden should be sent down.  He can't hit .200 in almost 200 plate appearances.  Per this comment he has had his chance as well.

There is a huge mathematical difference between .000 and .200. Roden also has two game winning hits, which you can only do if, you know, you actually get a hit. This reminds me of the company losing money that suggests they can make it up on volume.

[terrydactyls]

12 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

It's not like the games count over the next week.  They need a sense of urgency if they truly think they are contenders and need to start showing it today, not next week.

There are only 4 games remaining before the trade deadline arrives.  To me, Gray does not spell urgency.

[HarmonK03]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Oh, generally I fully agree with that. The FO has reached too far into the clubhouse in modern MLB organizations. I just don't think Shelton was fighting tooth and nail to keep Gray out of the lineup and was being told he had to put him in. 

I would like to be a fly on the wall to know for sure.  It does feel like he was doing less matchups when the season started but changed as the season went on.  It's nothing I have data on, just an observation and maybe he changed on his perception or direction from the front office.  But don't know for sure.  It will be interesting to see how often he uses Gray.

[mluebker]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

2 hours ago, AceBee said:

Consider putting Alex Jackson in CF may be... Just kidding ! 

Josh Bell could be fun.

Does he actually own a fielder’s glove?

[jaimedude]

Would have rather had Wallner or Fedko back than Tristan Gray. Gray wasn't exactly hitting well with Saints and not a good defender or speed guy like Fedko. Wallner is at least driving in runs. At least Fedko can play Center Field. 

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Why do people think Walker Jenkins would provide an immediate boost on offense? He is not doing anything special in St Paul.

Compared to what Tristan Gray is doing Jenkins is Babe Ruth.  

We've seen Gray.  He's a net negative performer both offensively and defensively.  Adding him makes the team incrementally worse.  

"Jenkins hasn't been exceptional so it's better to call up a player who has been significantly worse" doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  

We don't know what Jenkins will do.  I'm fairly confident it will be better that what we know Gray will do.  

[mluebker]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Waiting until they are perfect in AAA and expecting instant results at the MLB level means this club hasn't been paying attention to how this typically works, for about the last 150 years.

Even if this weren’t 100% correct, you’d think someone in the front office would have noticed that doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results STILL isn’t working.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Regardless, when you go 0 for 16, you’ve had your chance. Grab a bat and get a hit or don’t. There’s no crying in baseball.

I'm certainly not going to make any argument that Kyler Fedko is some great major leaguer. Or a major leaguer at all. But if front offices followed this thinking, there'd be a bunch of Hall of Famers not in the Hall of Fame. 16 ABs and you're out if you don't succeed? Mike Trout was 2 for 17 to start his career. If Fedko had 2 hits would it significantly change your mind on him? Buxton was 2 for 16. Again, 2 hits changing your mind significantly on someone?

Obviously, those are extreme examples of elite prospects failing early vs a guy you mostly hope is a 4th OFer. But "you've had your chance" after 16 ABs is an awful thought process for a front office to be making decisions on.

[mluebker]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Jenkins and Culpepper don't need to be added to the 40 man until December 2027. For all of us... me included who like to talk about the future. Jenkins and Culpepper called up this year could have negative future implications. 

I’m thinking it’s the positive present implications that a lot of folks are thinking about. Winning some games in 2028 will certainly be advantageous. Winning some (more) now also would be good.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why skip Houston over Culpepper?

Because Houston will be playing SS and Culpepper will be moved to 2B. I contend that Houston is a better fielder at SS than anyone in the Twins organization right now.  

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

   Jenkins and Culpepper don't need to be added to the 40 man until December 2027. For all of us... me included who like to talk about the future. Jenkins and Culpepper called up this year could have negative future implications. 

 

I get this sentiment, but man, we've been planning for a future that never comes for 30+ years now...

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, AceBee said:

Consider putting Alex Jackson in CF may be... Just kidding ! On a serious note, this one seems like ability to play around multiple positions (questionably with defensive metrics) seems to get valued more that any other criterion unless there is some trade deadline context to this move that's happening in the background 

You're laughing at the ridiculousness.... but Why is it any more of a stretch than Luke Keaschall in CF? Jackson has over 150 games in the outfield in MiLB including (a long time ago 9 games in CF). Jackson is as fast as Austin Martin and he has a strong arm. Under the Twins motto of "positional flexibility" I honestly don't see a big difference here.

I too think that would be pretty crazy, but within Falzoll-land, not as much as I'd think, probably.

[Coach]

Screw the service time argument for limiting promotion.  It's not our money, but it is our lives and the players.  We spend roughly 450 hours per year watching or listening to the Twins, and God knows how much time we spend on this website.  We want a competitive team.  Please, no more participation medals and pats on the back for good try.  Winners do the work.

[bean5302]

57 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Based on that then Roden should be sent down.  He can't hit .200 in almost 200 plate appearances.  Per this comment he has had his chance as well.

Roden's results are terrible again this year, and his expected stuff isn't good, either. I'd like to see him get to 100 PA at least before he's relegated to MiLB roster filler and injury replacement depth, but I've almost seen enough, myself.

[mluebker]

43 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

1 hour ago, Drtwins said:

I agree the Gray move is a bit of a head-scratcher, but I don't see the Twins adding any of their top prospects to the 40-man roster with a potential labor stoppage looming in 2027.

Adding players like Jenkins or Culpepper could actually do more harm than good. Players on a 40-man roster aren't allowed to participating in team activities during an MLB work stoppage, which would mean no access to Twins staff or ability to play in the minors. That could be a significant loss of development time.

If that is what the front office believes, then they should be trading everyone for prospects that haven't started their service time clock.

At some point they have to stop planning for a perfect hypothetical future and start trying to win games now. The CBA almost certainly will change things, but that’s a problem for the future. Right now the problem is “Who can play centerfield (or shortstop) and might make a positive difference for this team, now?” There’s a third of a season yet to be played.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Because Houston will be playing SS and Culpepper will be moved to 2B. I contend that Houston is a better fielder at SS than anyone in the Twins organization right now.  

I don't disagree that Houston is the superior fielder, but Culpepper can certainly field the position and is a much better bet to provide impact with his bat at this point. Leaving Culpepper in AAA while jumping Houston from AA to the majors feels like a weird move with no real reason to do it. Culpepper is playing SS now. If he moves to 2B later, so be it, but I don't know why that'd make someone jump Houston to the majors instead of calling up Culpepper.

[D.C Twins]

Quite simply, this is not a move that a playoff competitive team makes... full stop.

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't disagree that Houston is the superior fielder, but Culpepper can certainly field the position and is a much better bet to provide impact with his bat at this point. Leaving Culpepper in AAA while jumping Houston from AA to the majors feels like a weird move with no real reason to do it. Culpepper is playing SS now. If he moves to 2B later, so be it, but I don't know why that'd make someone jump Houston to the majors instead of calling up Culpepper.

I don't know about that. Houston's production at AA this year is better than Culpepper's was last year. Culpepper does not project as a plus hitter at the MLB level right now. He might be serviceable, maybe he'll exceed projections, but projection models look pretty similar for Houston and Culpepper at MLB.

[Riverbrian]

29 minutes ago, mluebker said:

I’m thinking it’s the positive present implications that a lot of folks are thinking about. Winning some games in 2028 will certainly be advantageous. Winning some (more) now also would be good.

I'm all for younger players getting callups and opportunity when called up but it's also dangerous to make the assumption that he will immediately perform in the next couple months or it could be as little as the length of time that Byron spends on the DL. 

It may not have the result some seem to think it will. If he struggles... we get low performance with a potentially enormous synergistic future cost. 

I'm not different than others on this website. I'm dying to see Jenkins in a Twins uniform but I'm really uncertain in regards to the potential future cost. 

 

[HarmonK03]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm all for younger players getting callups and opportunity when called up but it's also dangerous to make the assumption that he will immediately perform in the next couple months or it could be as little as the length of time that Byron spends on the DL. 

It may not have the result some seem to think it will. If he struggles... we get low performance with a potentially enormous synergistic future cost. 

I'm not different than others on this website. I'm dying to see Jenkins in a Twins uniform but I'm really uncertain in regards to the potential future cost. 

 

Or maybe it starts the learning curve and it helps him be successful and even more so in 2027.  Other teams do this, the Tigers just called up Max Clark.  We have a need for a center fielder and Jenkins by most reports is close to being ready.  If you want 100% certainty than wait until he is 27.

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I get this sentiment, but man, we've been planning for a future that never comes for 30+ years now...

This has been my main concern with the Twins organization for the past decade and the primary reason that I constantly complain about strip mining of our prospects for parts. We need to create major league talent that is at least average and we need to increase their trade value so have players that other teams would want to acquire and willing to pay a higher price for. 

I'm tired of being a top ten farm system year after year and consistently relying on 4 to 8 million dollar one year deals to fill in for the failures of these consistently top ranked farm systems.   

Farm system rankings don't mean much to me anymore. However... if the club is convinced that Walker Jenkins is going to be a superstar... that's great because we are going to need to develop one at some point. If Walker is that... I'd sure hate to have one or two less years of that superstar in a Twins uniform.

It's been a long time since Mauer and Buxton. Royce Lewis doesn't appear to be Mauer or Buxton. All eyes are on Jenkins now. 

Personally... I would have made further strides toward that future this past off-season. We needed younger infielders back in January and we still need them today. 

We didn't do that and now Gray is being tried again and if injury occurs or Gray can't solidify himself. Then it's Arcia I assume.

Because Culpepper is in the same boat as Jenkins and I just don't know what is going to happen with the new CBA. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I guess I also might not have called up Jenkins.

Because I'd have called up Culpepper who is about four months overdue for a promotion. 

This team is frustrating. I do think this club can be a top team next year, but only if they find a legit middle of the order hitter amongst the young internal players. And they need to be called up this year just to get their feet wet. Waiting until they are perfect in AAA and expecting instant results at the MLB level means this club hasn't been paying attention to how this typically works, for about the last 150 years.

This. Truly. 

If you are really buyers, you attended worried about an extra year of control. If you truly want to compete, you don't call up a below replacement level player. 

[saviking]

3 hours ago, Coach said:

Not having a true center fielder, and using Kreidler there sometimes, has a domino effect, as our shortstop ability is sharply diminished.  Calling Gray back up is a real head scratcher.

Exactly. This team is defensively challenged. They could strengthen it with Jenkins in Center, Cullpepper at short and now that EMA has been actived he could play right field strengthening all three positions. They all 3 have a high onbase percentage, power and only have to hit equal to Gray, Kreidler and Roden who is hitting .181 .. 

Minimum if any downside and potentially major uoside. 

BUT, it's not going to happen because the Twind do not want to start their service times. 

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know about that. Houston's production at AA this year is better than Culpepper's was last year. Culpepper does not project as a plus hitter at the MLB level right now. He might be serviceable, maybe he'll exceed projections, but projection models look pretty similar for Houston and Culpepper at MLB.

Interesting. I mean, if they think Houston can outhit Culpepper right now in the majors, I'd prefer that move. I'm not sure you'd find many scouts who'd predict that, but if that's what the Twins internal thoughts are, then jumping Houston over Culpepper would make sense.

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm all for younger players getting callups and opportunity when called up but it's also dangerous to make the assumption that he will immediately perform in the next couple months or it could be as little as the length of time that Byron spends on the DL. 

It may not have the result some seem to think it will. If he struggles... we get low performance with a potentially enormous synergistic future cost. 

I'm not different than others on this website. I'm dying to see Jenkins in a Twins uniform but I'm really uncertain in regards to the potential future cost. 

 

So if you think it likely he struggle his first year, and you want to be competitive next year..... You call him up this year.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, mluebker said:

Even if this weren’t 100% correct, you’d think someone in the front office would have noticed that doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results STILL isn’t working.

I think Cleveland had y nine rookies? Minnesota has zero hitting rookies? This is an old team, that can't be above .500....