Twins Trade Deadline Buying Guide: Dream Scenarios

[thelanges5]

Larnach + prospect outside the top 25 for Bradgley Rodriguez or Victor Vodnik

Jeffers to Rays for Ty Johnson and a pitcher in their top 25-50 

Keep Ryan for now you can always trade him in the off-season or at the next trade deadline. 

I’m listening on Bell. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’d argue it doesn’t really deplete the depth. They still have Jenkins and Lackey and Keaschall and Lee and Culpepper and Buxton and countless others. Plus I have a hard time banking on Rodriguez truly ever staying healthy, and Tait’s 90th percentile is still a long ways away.

I don’t know that I see Gunnar being traded either. But it is a fun thought experiment

All fair. It's the other two trades I really didn't like 

Why are people trading for a first baseman? Lewis is league average there since moving over. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

All fair. It's the other two trades I really didn't like 

Why are people trading for a first baseman? Lewis is league average there since moving over. 

I agree with you on this too. I don’t know if they think Lewis is a core guy or not. I’m not even certain if he is more a 2b or 1b. I don’t know that I’d pursue Garcia Jr over a number of other options (I like Isaac Paredes more as an example) but I think he did that because of the Peralta/Weaver trade needing Lewis apparently. 
All a fun thought experiment 

[Mike Sixel]

Btw, I'm a huge fan of the OP..... Just not this set of ideas. 

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Perhaps I did a bad job explaining the purpose of this article/series. 

This is *not* me saying here are three moves I would make. It's saying, should the Twins decide they are buyers and should they decide they want to shoot for the moon, given the likely players available at the deadline, here is what they would likely have to give up based on past precedent.

I would 100% NOT do all three of these in conjunction. Also, as I said in the piece, don't focus as much on the specific names; focus more on the roles they represent: a recent high impact starter on an expiring deal and a good bullpen arm; a potential long-term fit at shortstop; a legitimate first baseman under some team control, etc.

[TheLeviathan]

So....the Orioles, with an equal record to ours, are giving up a young player who is having a down year after a star breakout and the Nationals, who are 3 games better than us, are dumping one of their better young players?

Twins Daily the last two weeks:

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

Perhaps I did a bad job explaining the purpose of this article/series. 

This is *not* me saying here are three moves I would make. It's saying, should the Twins decide they are buyers and should they decide they want to shoot for the moon, given the likely players available at the deadline, here is what they would likely have to give up based on past precedent.

I would 100% NOT do all three of these in conjunction. Also, as I said in the piece, don't focus as much on the specific names; focus more on the roles they represent: a recent high impact starter on an expiring deal and a good bullpen arm; a potential long-term fit at shortstop; a legitimate first baseman under some team control, etc.

Fair. If I'm dealing for player, he has to have 3+ years of control, though. It's why I don't hate the SS deal....not sure I do it, but it isn't an awful idea.

[Western SD Fan]

This was taken from the Skor North Twins Show on Friday when discussing untouchables in trades.  They did an analysis of the players taken at a snapshot in time that were the top 15 prospects.  A listener had challenged that we should not trade ANY of our current players in the top 15.  This snapshot was taken from the Twins top prospects (per MLB pipeline) for 2020:

#1 - Royce Lewis:  Not realized the hype but can still be a solid ML player.  Tough to swallow for a #1 overall draft pick.

#2 - Alex Kiriloff:  Out of baseball due to permanent injury.

#3 - Trevor Larnach: Finally realizing some potential.  Likely will never be a high-end contributor to a team.  Should be a solid platoon bat.

#4 - Jordan Balazovic: Out of baseball.  Never truly materialized in any role.

#5 - Jhoan Duran:  Will go down as one of the best closers we have ever had.

#6 - Ryan Jeffers: - Current catcher and one of the best in MLB

Others include:  Keoni Cavaco (Indy ball), Wander Javier, Blaine Enlow, Lewis Thorpe (out of baseball), Matt Canterino (only player hurt more than Buxton), Brent Rooker (A's), Akil Badoo (borderline ML), Matt Wallner (St. Paul), Gilberto Celestino (AAA-Texas)

Out of that list, 10 have actually received ML playing time and only 5 are currently on a ML roster.  This could be from drafting, development, or both.

The point is I believe the organization holds onto prospects too long or doesn't do adequate enough assessments of them to figure out if they truly can help the organization.  If you are truly going to go for it, you need to be willing to trade assets and prospects that other teams actually want.  Not doing this has led us to trade deadline deals that involve Sam Dyson or Trevor Richards, if we were lucky enough to get that result.  

As to respond to the trade possibilities listed above, I'm not sure I do any of them.  Peralta is going to require more than the Twins are willing to pay, in both cash and prospects.  If you bring Gunner in, what do you do with Culpepper, or Lee, Clemens, Lewis, and possibly Roden, Martin, and Keaschall for that matter?  One or two of that combination would have to be traded to make room for Gunner.  For the last one, I am sticking with Royce as my guy at 1B.  He is getting better at defense there and while he is not swinging the hottest bat in the lineup, his bat is not detrimental to the team like it was earlier in the season.  I also get an extra year of arbitration with Lewis that I don't get with a potential trade of Garcia, Jr.

I'm still in the camp of doing what Tampa Bay does at trade deadlines.  Trading away expiring contracts from positions of strength and acquiring expiring contracts from needed positions.  You don't sell out the farm, but you keep yourself in contention.  Especially this year since we don't know what next year may bring.

[Rufus]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Do you really believe there is a market for Kreidler, maybe a rookie ball prospect at best.

When if not now? He's having a career year some one who needs a good fielding SS, utility man to fill in their roster for a play off run.  They got a couple of decent prospects for Castro last year.  

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, jimmyc said:

#1.  The Mets would gladly trade both of those pitchers.  But they probably want more MLB ready players.  I go back and forth about it but probably too much to give up for .5 yrs. of a starter and 1.5 of a reliever.

I think it's an ok offer, but I just want to point out that no one wants Royce Lewis, but especially not the Mets who have 2 Royce Lewises on their roster already in Brett Baty and Mark Vientos.  

[Metrodome Kid]

I like the first two. Not interested in the third, but overall fun to think about.

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

This was taken from the Skor North Twins Show on Friday when discussing untouchables in trades.  They did an analysis of the players taken at a snapshot in time that were the top 15 prospects.  A listener had challenged that we should not trade ANY of our current players in the top 15.  This snapshot was taken from the Twins top prospects (per MLB pipeline) for 2020:

#1 - Royce Lewis:  Not realized the hype but can still be a solid ML player.  Tough to swallow for a #1 overall draft pick.

#2 - Alex Kiriloff:  Out of baseball due to permanent injury.

#3 - Trevor Larnach: Finally realizing some potential.  Likely will never be a high-end contributor to a team.  Should be a solid platoon bat.

#4 - Jordan Balazovic: Out of baseball.  Never truly materialized in any role.

#5 - Jhoan Duran:  Will go down as one of the best closers we have ever had.

#6 - Ryan Jeffers: - Current catcher and one of the best in MLB

Others include:  Keoni Cavaco (Indy ball), Wander Javier, Blaine Enlow, Lewis Thorpe (out of baseball), Matt Canterino (only player hurt more than Buxton), Brent Rooker (A's), Akil Badoo (borderline ML), Matt Wallner (St. Paul), Gilberto Celestino (AAA-Texas)

Out of that list, 10 have actually received ML playing time and only 5 are currently on a ML roster.  This could be from drafting, development, or both.

The point is I believe the organization holds onto prospects too long or doesn't do adequate enough assessments of them to figure out if they truly can help the organization.  If you are truly going to go for it, you need to be willing to trade assets and prospects that other teams actually want.  Not doing this has led us to trade deadline deals that involve Sam Dyson or Trevor Richards, if we were lucky enough to get that result.  

As to respond to the trade possibilities listed above, I'm not sure I do any of them.  Peralta is going to require more than the Twins are willing to pay, in both cash and prospects.  If you bring Gunner in, what do you do with Culpepper, or Lee, Clemens, Lewis, and possibly Roden, Martin, and Keaschall for that matter?  One or two of that combination would have to be traded to make room for Gunner.  For the last one, I am sticking with Royce as my guy at 1B.  He is getting better at defense there and while he is not swinging the hottest bat in the lineup, his bat is not detrimental to the team like it was earlier in the season.  I also get an extra year of arbitration with Lewis that I don't get with a potential trade of Garcia, Jr.

I'm still in the camp of doing what Tampa Bay does at trade deadlines.  Trading away expiring contracts from positions of strength and acquiring expiring contracts from needed positions.  You don't sell out the farm, but you keep yourself in contention.  Especially this year since we don't know what next year may bring.

What do you think the hit rate is?

There are 5-8 MLB players there, plus a guy that was injured.....though I agree, there could be more decisiveness by this organization. 

[HarmonK03]

30 minutes ago, Rufus said:

When if not now? He's having a career year some one who needs a good fielding SS, utility man to fill in their roster for a play off run.  They got a couple of decent prospects for Castro last year.  

One month of production is going to make everyone forget his history.  Casto had two and a half years of production.  This is no different than everyone was saying Arcia would be a trade chip after his first couple of games up here.  And how many teams claimed  him when he was on waivers.  And Kreidler has cooled off as he has played more.  He is a decent utility player but he is not a needle mover.

[weitz41]

I'm firmly in the don't waste the prospects column for this season. But I too have the itch to hope they try and go for it. Just in a much smaller way then 2 of the 3 you mentioned.

Luis Garcia would be a nice add to the team. I don't think I'd part with GG for him but Gallager and say Rosario or DeBarge.

A little buy and a little sell is probably the best way to go this season. IMO

[jkcarew]

This dream is a nightmare.

[Sampson5]

Well the good news for people who hate these projected moves is after losing 3 of the last 4 games twins are looking more and more unlikely to buy unless they get it together pretty quickly it's far more likely they sell then actually trade any meaningful prospects but honestly the most likely scenario is still they add a few low level guys without giving up anyone in the top 10-12 current prospects which is probably smart because if we're being honest twins are unlikely to make the playoffs with this bullpen and zero starting pitching depth 

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, Chad93 said:

Twins need to trade veterans and build for future and create a young core they aren't close to being a championship roster 

When do you see that future realized? Next year, 2028, 2029 or later? That's the evaluative decision you have to make first. If you think that the current group augmented by 3–5 players could be a championship contender, keep most of what you have and try to find those 3-5 players by promoting from the farm or trades of expiring contracts for controllable talent. On the other hand, if you think the talent level of the current roster plus those in AAA leave us at least 4-5 years out, you trade away pretty much everything we have that has value. The phrase "trade veterans and build for the future and create young core" suggests that you think we are at least 3 and probably 4-5 years out from a championship contender, probably more. I reach that conclusion because any prospect we trade for is at least two years away from making a meaningful contribution on a championship team, probably three or more because they have to get their feet wet for a year, can make strides their second year, and then become real contributors in year three at whatever level their talent allows them to reach. Brooks Lee now in year 3 is a classic example. If you think we are that far out, then I would agree – be willing to trade everyone on the roster except Lee, Prielipp, Morris, Gomez, Matthews, and Keaschall, as they are the only current players who will still be real contributors three plus or more years from now. If we do that, then basically call up AAA roster and weed through those players as you add in any prospects acquired in trade this year and over the 2027 – 2029 seasons. Endure the losing and low attendance for the future hoped for gain. It's a viable strategy if you think were that far away, blow it up and start over.

I just don't agree because I think we are closer than that. We aren't a championship contender this year. The right moves, though, and we could be division championship contenders next year, and overall championship contenders by 2028. If you start there, which is where I start, I don't like your idea at all. All that does is push out possible contention even farther with no guarantee of success and eliminates the possibility of success from this core if properly augmented, something I see as possible. That's where we disagree I guess.

[LA Vikes Fan]

17 minutes ago, Sampson5 said:

Well the good news for people who hate these projected moves is after losing 3 of the last 4 games twins are looking more and more unlikely to buy unless they get it together pretty quickly it's far more likely they sell then actually trade any meaningful prospects but honestly the most likely scenario is still they add a few low level guys without giving up anyone in the top 10-12 current prospects which is probably smart because if we're being honest twins are unlikely to make the playoffs with this bullpen and zero starting pitching depth 

Sadly, you are probably right. The lineup and pretty good starting pitching got us back to .500. If the starting pitching is going to completely tank like it has the last three games, we have no prayer. We just played 4 games where you would expect us to win the two games started by Bradley and Ryan, lose the game started by Matthews, and that the game started by Ober would be a toss up. Instead, we got blown out in the Ryan and Bradley starts, crushed as expected when Matthews started, and only won the Ober toss up game. The other three games were simply not competitive from our end, which kills a teams' spirit. Absent a trade, our only hopes of getting even 5 games over .500 requires us to win most of the games that Ryan or Bradley start, more than half the games that Ober starts, and at least 40% of the games started from the last two spots currently occupied by Matthews and for the time being Prielipp (whose innings limits will his rotation time short relatively soon). Any even 10-15 game period like that from here out and we are toast. It is starting to look like we are entering one of those periods.

[Wedman13]

6 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

Great job going straight to personal insult while adding no substantive take of your own.  Really added to the conversation.

The option of trading for a talented young shortstop with a track record of past success interests me.  It would sure up the infield while raising the offensive ceiling for the team (immediately).

Ok, this was funny.  I agree with MS's insightful posts but not sure this one tops the list!

[Rufus]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

One month of production is going to make everyone forget his history.  Casto had two and a half years of production.  This is no different than everyone was saying Arcia would be a trade chip after his first couple of games up here.  And how many teams claimed  him when he was on waivers.  And Kreidler has cooled off as he has played more.  He is a decent utility player but he is not a needle mover.

Did I say he was?  He can add a glove to a team.   He is not going to bring back prime talent.  But what do the Twins do with him?  Next year looks like wash and I doubt the Twins will  keep him after this season.  See what he can bring.  Can't hurt.  Also Castro was trending down last year and really went south after the Cubs got him,.   He signed with the Rockies this year and has had a decent year (0.7 WAR). Kreidler has a 0.4 War.  No ir wouldn't be a block buster trade...but who knows.