For Minnesota Twins, First Half Raised as Many Questions as It Answered

[Peter Labuza]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

As the 2026 Minnesota Twins took the field, there was little hope that this would be The Year. After two seasons of missed opportunities and a deadline blowout that left the team a shell of itself, it was clear the Twins would take a step back for 2026. That didn't mean the team couldn't be interesting, but the questions one wanted to answer were quite different than simply “will they make the playoffs?"

Yet, these Twins have been oddballs, to say the least. Neither historically terrible nor particularly good, the Twins are simply playing a Schrödinger's Season: every time you look, it appears slightly different, with a totally different outcome on numerous fronts. We seem to know how they're doing or which direction they're trending, but never both at once.

Perhaps most frustrating—not necessarily in a bad way—is that the season’s necessary questions are actually murkier than ever. Assessing these mysteries shows us that understanding this team, not to mention the 2027 and 2028 teams, might not be as clear as one might hope. It would be easy to pull certain levers, but uncertainty abounds.

Who Makes Up the Young Core of the Twins?
As we entered the season, many hoped to find out who would anchor the next few seasons of Twins baseball. Was Royce Lewis cooked? Would Brooks Lee prove his worth? Was Luke Keaschall’s bat for real?

Honestly, nobody has made it easy. Almost every one of the Twins’ “Core” players has played a highly inconsistent style of baseball. Here’s each player's rolling xWOBA over the season so far: 

With just over a month to go to the trade deadline, it looks like a number of the core players have turned it around. However, how does one determine if these are simply fleeting hot streaks? Anyone can do anything over 60 plate appearances.

If there’s anything to learn from the above data, it is the inconsistency of the season. Only Kody Clemens has managed to stay above the .300 mark that defines a useful offensive player. And this graph doesn't even account for Matt Wallner, who has ironed out some (but not all) of his issues at Triple-A St. Paul and seems to be asking for reinstatement. Many of us will cheer the return of Lewis as a slugger, but with so much noise in the signal, it's hard to see if any gains might make either of those two central to the Twins’ 2027 plan.

Jeremy Zoll will clearly have to make some difficult decisions before August 3, but arguably, the hardest will be defining who the core is. 

Which Rookies Can We Pen Into 2027?
Generally, the silver lining on the clouds of rebuilding are the opportunities that process affords to prospects. The lining around this year's clouds has been more of a slightly later gray than a shimmering silver, with injuries taking the luster off. Here are the names everyone threw around this spring: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Kaelen Culpepper, Alan Roden, Gabriel Gonzalez. Only one of those got a shot at the majors (Gonzalez, with four plate appearances before being sent down) in the team's first three months of play.

As is the case with any great Twins hitting prospects, the core top prospects have been marred with injuries. That means we have yet to see how many of these players will fare. And given that four of the five players named above are outfielders, the Twins are once again finding themselves unable to clear a roadblock. One hopes that an active trade deadline might create a pathway for playing time, but the hope that we would know who might start at shortstop or in right field next spring remains only a hope, and the project has been delayed until those guys can get and stay healthy for a while. 

Which Starters are Bullpen Bound?
The Twins entered the season with eight potential starters alongside a couple intriguing arms on the cusp of the majors. Throughout spring training, many considered what it might look like to see David Festa, Connor Prelipp, or Zebby Matthews as bullpen arms. In the way the team had developed Louis Varland, Jhoan Duran, and Griffin Jax into a ferocious relief trio, many thought that there might be the start of an ace bullpen simply by converting starters.

So far, only one name managed to make it to the bullpen: Andrew Morris, who has looked solid enough (with a 2.68 FIP) to lightly pencil in for 2027 and beyond. Otherwise: ugh. The bullpen has been a parade of disasters, ranking 23rd in the league and with only the surprising waiver claim (Yoendrys Gómez) likely to have a place on the team going forward. Even more surprisingly, the Twins did not even bother trying the flailing Simeon Woods Richardson in the bullpen before tossing him back to the Blue Jays (who tossed him as well this week). 

There will be time in the latter half of the season to experiment with arms, but (as suggested below) the trade deadline might require those experiments to remain starters just to cover innings.

Can We Expect Another Sell-Off?
The running joke for Twins fans worried about a sell-off is, "What's left to sell?" Beyond Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers, there seemed to be little in the tank of the team (we’ll ignore whatever any major media outlets have said about Byron Buxton and leave his comments on the table).

But one unexpected problem has changed a lot of Twins thinking: an oddball American League has placed them right outside the Wild Card race. Even more so, the team sits less than five games back from the division-leading White Sox and Guardians. Both those teams, of course, have weaknesses that could allow them to be overtaken given the right two weeks. There is a real chance this deeply flawed Twins team, especially if it overcomes some injuries and reinforces the bullpen, could make a push for the playoffs.

But why? Even if the Twins forced their way into the playoffs, an early exit is almost guaranteed. What better chance to take advantage of a seller's market of teams in need of one last piece? Moreover, the Twins seemingly have more trade chips than expected, with Trevor Larnach surging and even a left-hander like Anthony Banda likely worth an interesting prospect. Ryan will, of course, remain the centerpiece, and depending on how Detroit approaches their deadline, he could be the hottest commodity on the market. The return of Jeffers might position them to land an intriguing haul, as well. 

But deciding to buy or sell leads into the final question….

Is Tom Pohlad Steering the Twins in the Right Direction?
Few considered Tom Pohlad’s self-appointment as the "new" owner exciting at the time, but most would agree that he is at least trying. Payroll is down, though there was little time left to wade into the free-agent market when he took over in the second half of December. On the fan-facing side, I don’t think most would argue against his implementation of $2 beers before game time, free tickets, and generally remaining around the team. Tom is attempting to put his face on the team the way his brother Joe avoided doing. 

Of course, ticket sales are down—but as oft noted by former team president Dave St. Peter, most ticket sales happen before the season. Notably, there is another public measure of activity inside the ballpark: the Twins “Split the Pot” Raffle. As I wrote about for Baseball Prospectus, the raffle has been a strong barometer of butts in the seats, at least relative to other seasons. Often this depends on weekend games as well as opponents, but there is a sign of some turnaround in the team occurring:

	2023	2024	2025	2026
April	$11,791.56	$12,025.83	$12,253.67	$7,175.00
May	$15,438.33	$12,007.35	$13,166.00	$13,782.92
June	$15,375.56	$15,048.85	$16,435.00	$16,344.23

Some of this is engineered; for example, the Twins had both the Blue Jays and Brewers—some of their more popular neighbor opponents—as weekend series in May. And having Shohei Ohtani on the mound (the only sellout crowd of the season so far) certainly made a difference in June. But it seems that some of the trends are changing and more fans are attending compared to last year. It even looks like the Rockies series to end June should actually increase the final number for the month.

Does this make the new Pohlad a success? Certainly not yet. Could the deadline define him? Even that is hard to say. Unless he somehow forced a Buxton trade, the real moment to define his legacy will be the offseason.

The Twins have half a season left to start answering these questions. Let's hope we see them sooner rather than later.

View full article

[PDX Twin]

Quote

But why? Even if the Twins forced their way into the playoffs, an early exit is almost guaranteed. What better chance to take advantage of a seller's market of teams in need of one last piece? 

I agree. For this season, we are fighting over scraps at the bottom of the league. Let's get the talented kids up as soon as they are "ready" and start to see the next generation. They may or may not be good enough to be the core of a winning team, but we won't know until we start to see who is worth building around.

[Eris]

The selloff last year did not address a major issue with lineup construction in that the Twins have multiple players whose best position is DH. There is perhaps some organizational progress in that expectations around defense are changing—maybe. For example, Lee was moved off SS, Bell has <20 games at 1B, Keaschall started 1 game not at 2B. Nonetheless, the Twins have only a few position plays who have been league average or better on defense(Jeffers, Clemens at1B, and maybe Buxton and Kreidler). That is a lot of opportunity for improvement.