Zebby Matthews Is Close to Breaking Out, But One Major Issue Remains

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

There’s a lot to like with Zebby Matthews as a player.

For a pitcher that’s still on the younger side at just 26 years old, Matthews possesses the one fundamental trait that organizations covet the most: the ability to throw strikes consistently. Throughout his professional career, he’s shown outstanding control of the strike zone, limiting walks and forcing hitters to earn their way on base.

Matthews owns a career 2.6 BB/9 rate, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio sits at an impressive 3.66-to-1. More often than not, that’s a formula for becoming a quality major league starter, and pitchers with those kinds of numbers find success.

But there’s been something else that has plagued Matthews since arriving in the majors back in 2024.

For the first couple years of his big league career, Matthews was allowing far too many hits. Across 117 innings between 2024 and 2025, he surrendered a staggering 145 hits. That comes out to 11.2 hits per nine innings, which is an alarming number for any starting pitcher.

A lot of that damage was tied directly to the long ball. Of those 145 hits, 23 left the yard. So the hope coming into this season was that Matthews would be able to limit the total number of hits he allowed, but especially the home runs. If he could do that, the results would likely follow.

Fast forward to mid-June, and to his credit, Matthews has done a better job of limiting overall contact. He’s allowing fewer than one hit per inning, his line-drive rate has dropped substantially, and he’s generating more ground balls than he did previously.

The problem is that while the line drives have decreased, the fly balls have increased. And with more fly balls have come more home runs.

Through just 36 innings with the Twins this season, Matthews has already allowed eight homers, including three on Thursday against the Tigers. Now, through 31 career major league starts, Matthews has allowed 31 home runs. That simply isn’t a recipe for long-term success.

So what’s causing the quality-of-contact issues?

I think it starts with the fact that his four-seam fastball has simply not been a very effective pitch. While Matthews' secondary offerings continue to generate swings and misses, the fastball has lagged behind. Opposing hitters haven't had much trouble handling it, and the whiff rate on the pitch sits at just 12% this season.

That’s a concerning number considering how frequently he uses it. Matthews throws the four-seamer roughly 38% of the time, and when hitters put it in play, they’re doing damage. Opponents own a .500 slugging percentage on fastballs put in play against him this season.

A big reason for that comes down to location. Matthews' fastball, along with his slider and curveball (his two main secondary pitches), are catching far too much of the plate.

I mentioned his low walk rate earlier – Matthews has outstanding control of the strike zone. However, command of the strike zone is a different conversation entirely.

Control is the ability to throw strikes. Command is the ability to throw quality strikes. And far too often, Matthews' pitches are finishing out over the heart of the plate.

Thursday’s outing against Detroit served as a perfect example. The first home run he allowed came on a 2-1 curveball that was left right over the middle of the plate to Spencer Torkelson. The second was a 3-0 fastball that I’m not sure could’ve been more center-cut, and the third was a first-pitch changeup that stayed elevated in the zone and got punished.

TORK BOMB pic.twitter.com/jsqyVpFvQR

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) June 11, 2026

GleyBOMB ? pic.twitter.com/7NI7zJpFHb

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) June 11, 2026

None of those pitches were located well, and all three mistakes wound up in the seats. That’s been the story for Matthews throughout much of his major league career so far.

He pounds the strike zone. In fact, he may pound it a little too much. The encouraging part is that there’s still a tremendous amount of upside here.

The home run problem is significant, but it also feels fixable. Matthews has a deep arsenal. He misses bats with his secondary pitches, he limits walks, and he works efficiently while consistently getting ahead in counts.

Those are all traits that successful starters possess. The next step is simply improving his command within the strike zone.

If Matthews can do a better job of keeping his pitches off the barrel and limiting hard contact, there’s still plenty of reason to believe in his long-term outlook. The ingredients are all there.

The strike-throwing ability, the swing-and-miss stuff, and the ability to work deep into games are all things Zebby Matthews has. Now it’s just about refining his location.

If he can get the home runs under control, a potential frontline starter is still very much within his range of outcomes. That’s obviously easier said than done, but we’ve also seen him dominate when teams aren’t squaring him up. The gap between where Matthews is now and where he can be might just come down to a few misplaced pitches each start.

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[mikelink45]

We keep hoping but we need to see some progress

[thelanges5]

Gleeman:

Most career homers allowed per nine innings in Twins history (minimum 150 innings):

1.88 — Dave Stevens
1.82 — Zebby Matthews
1.81 — Scott Aldred

[Linus]

It’s pretty much been his problem since he came up. To say “if he can only keep it off the barrel he will be good” seems empty. 

[jmlease1]

31 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Gleeman:

Most career homers allowed per nine innings in Twins history (minimum 150 innings):

1.88 — Dave Stevens
1.82 — Zebby Matthews
1.81 — Scott Aldred

You do not want to be in the same conversation as Scott Aldred.

[hitterscount]

T

[hitterscount]

I believe that they need to keep going with Matthews, he has the arsenal to be a serviceable starter. There's two ways for him to get there, better command of the strike zone or an uptick in velocity. I don't have the numbers/data, but it seems when he is pitching effectively he is hitting 97-98, when he's getting torched his four seamer seems to be in the 94-95 range, huge difference in missing bats if he could maintain the higher velocity, it makes his offspeed pitches more effective. If he's just filling the strike zone with 94 mph fastballs he will continue to struggle unless he develops better command. Big year for him, hopefully he takes the next step. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

It’s pretty much been his problem since he came up. To say “if he can only keep it off the barrel he will be good” seems empty. 

You never hear the corollary: "If he could barrel up he'd be a great hitter "

[mnfireman]

25 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

I believe that they need to keep going with Matthews, he has the arsenal to be a serviceable starter. There's two ways for him to get there, better command of the strike zone or an uptick in velocity. I don't have the numbers/data, but it seems when he is pitching effectively he is hitting 97-98, when he's getting torched his four seamer seems to be in the 94-95 range, huge difference in missing bats if he could maintain the higher velocity, it makes his offspeed pitches more effective. If he's just filling the strike zone with 94 mph fastballs he will continue to struggle unless he develops better command. Big year for him, hopefully he takes the next step. 

Sounds like he'd make a good reliever....

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, Patzky said:

You never hear the corollary: "If he could barrel up he'd be a great hitter "

I see that all the time, about weak contact.

It's a lost year, keep putting him out there as a starter this year. If it doesn't work, I think he can be a good RP. 

[TJSweens]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

It’s pretty much been his problem since he came up. To say “if he can only keep it off the barrel he will be good” seems empty. 

It's like saying...if he could just keep hitters from pounding the snot out of him he'd be pretty good.

[bean5302]

I was really hopeful for Matthews when he first came up, but his stuff isn't great so he needs to stay out of the middle/middle.

[jkcarew]

Keep marching him out there.

[CRF]

A dermatologist may be able to help with the breaking out. 

[tony&rodney]

Matthews might be a ticket in a trade. I'm still hopeful of prying away a top prospect from a team and am still hopeful that a guy like Jordan Lawler can be acquired. I'm also pretty sure neither will happen. 

In the meantime, the Twins should continue to let Zebby develop against MLB bats unless he just completely craters. There are going to be some options soon with Abel and Rojas nearing a return and Paredes looking like he can get outs. Zebby Matthews needs to step forward.