Nine Deals, One Clear Win: Revisiting the Twins' 2025 Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins spent last summer’s trade deadline walking a fine line between cutting payroll, reshaping the roster, and trying to remain competitive in the future. Now that the 2026 season is underway, it is much easier to evaluate those deals based on their actual impact rather than on deadline-day reactions.

To evaluate the overall impact, it's not enough to look at what the Twins gained; we also have to look at the roster impact had no trade been made. Some have barely registered on the current roster. Others have already altered the team's trajectory in meaningful ways. Here is a look back at the most impactful deadline moves from the perspective of the impact on the 2026 roster.

Trades That Seem Unlikely to Impact the 2026 Roster
A few deals simply have not mattered much in the grand scheme of the current season. Enrique Jimenez for Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak has not produced any noticeable effect on the major league club. Paddack and Dobnak were moved largely to clear innings and payroll flexibility, while Jimenez remains far from contributing in Minnesota.

Ryan Gallagher and Sam Armstrong for Willi Castro also fall into that category. Castro was a free agent at the end of the year. So far, the return has not impacted the current roster in any meaningful way either, though Gallagher was recently promoted to AAA-St. Paul. 

Garrett Horn for Danny Coulombe was another low-level move that has not significantly changed the outlook of the 2026 club. Coulombe provided bullpen depth, but neither side of the trade has created lasting ripple effects.

6. Hendry Mendez and Geremy Villoria for Harrison Bader
This move always looked like a short-term rental for Philadelphia, and that is exactly what it became. Bader was heading toward free agency, so there was never a realistic scenario where he would still be patrolling the outfield for Minnesota this season. The interesting part of the trade now revolves around Hendry Mendez.

Mendez earned a spot on the 40-man roster this winter and recently reached Triple-A. There are still several left-handed hitting corner outfielders ahead of him on the organizational depth chart, but injuries have a way of opening doors quickly. A major league debut sometime this season feels possible if Minnesota needs offensive reinforcements.

2026 Impact: Mendez has a chance to debut, so this trade still feels relatively low impact for 2026.

5. Matt Mikulski and $70 Million in Salary Relief for Carlos Correa
This trade still feels surreal. The Twins moved Correa and attached it to a massive amount of salary relief, only to largely pocket the financial flexibility rather than reinvest it in the roster. Before his recent season-ending ankle injury, Correa was actually playing well and could have helped stabilize Minnesota’s lineup during the first month of the season.

At the same time, the injury also reinforces why some in the organization were willing to move on from the long-term commitment. Correa’s absence likely would have become a major issue for Minnesota regardless of where he played.

Mikulski has been released from the organization, leaving the biggest takeaway from this deal centered on ownership’s financial decisions rather than the actual baseball return.

2026 Impact: The Twins cleared Correa’s contract but failed to meaningfully reinvest the savings into improving the current roster.

4. Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel for Jhoan Duran
This one has become complicated quickly. Tait remains years away from the major leagues, making him difficult to evaluate in the context of the current roster. Abel has spent much of the year dealing with injuries after suffering a setback in his recovery from right elbow inflammation. His recent tricep impingement and cortisone shot pushed his timeline back even further.

Meanwhile, Duran looked dominant before suffering a strained left oblique. Prior to the injury, he posted a 1.35 ERA with five saves in 6 2/3 innings before recently returning to action. The frustrating part for Minnesota is obvious. A healthy Duran could be helping hold together one of the worst bullpens in baseball right now. Even if Abel eventually becomes a useful arm, the Twins desperately miss the stability Duran brought to the late innings.

2026 Impact: Minnesota badly misses Duran’s late-inning dominance, while Abel’s injury issues have delayed any return value.

3. James Outman for Brock Stewart
Few moves have aged worse in the short term. Outman entered the season out of options, which essentially forced Minnesota to keep him on the active roster. Unfortunately, his production has been almost nonexistent. Through his first 28 games, Outman has produced a staggering -0.4 rWAR while occupying a roster spot that could be going to a younger or more productive player. The bigger issue is roster flexibility. Keeping Outman on the bench has prevented the Twins from cycling through alternative options that may provide more offensive upside.

Stewart opened the season injured, but recently returned and made his first appearance over the last week. Even limited bullpen help would have been valuable for this roster, considering how disastrous the relief corps has looked for much of the year.

2026 Impact: Outman has negatively impacted the roster, while Stewart’s return to health could have helped stabilize Minnesota’s bullpen.

2. Kendry Rojas and Alan Roden for Louis Varland and Ty France
This trade keeps looking worse by the week for Minnesota. The Twins bullpen has completely unraveled at times during the opening stretch of the season, and Varland has emerged as one of the best relievers in the American League. After stepping into Toronto’s closer role, Varland captured AL Reliever of the Month honors and has given the Blue Jays legitimacy at the back end of games. Minnesota’s roster could desperately use that exact presence right now.

Roden has battled injuries at Triple-A and has not impacted the major league roster, while Rojas continues flashing electric stuff that may ultimately fit best in a bullpen role long term. The evaluation overwhelmingly centers on Varland. Right now, it is difficult to look at the Twins' bullpen struggles and not wonder how different games might feel with Varland handling the ninth inning.

2026 Impact: Varland’s breakout as Toronto’s closer has magnified how much the Twins need reliable bullpen arms right now.

1. Taj Bradley for Griffin Jax
This is a clear win for Minnesota. While several other deadline moves have created frustration, the acquisition of Taj Bradley has been one of the few unquestioned bright spots on the roster. Bradley has emerged as the team’s most valuable pitcher, leading the club with a 1.7 rWAR while posting a 154 ERA+ through his first eight starts.

Provided he gets past this recent pectoral injury, Bradley gives the Twins a legitimate chance to win every fifth day. Meanwhile, Jax has struggled since arriving in Tampa Bay as the Rays attempt to transition him into a starting role. The raw material remains intriguing, but the results have not been consistent.

For a team searching for rotation stability after injuries and inconsistency, Bradley’s emergence has been enormous. Unlike some of the other deadline moves that created long-term questions, this trade already looks like one of the few decisions that is actively helping Minnesota compete in 2026.

2026 Impact: Bradley has emerged as Minnesota’s best starter and one of the few clear positives from the 2025 trade deadline.

Trade deadlines are always judged too quickly. Some deals that looked smart in the moment now appear disastrous because of injuries, roster construction problems, or lack of reinvestment from ownership. Others that drew skepticism initially are beginning to show real value.

What stands out most from the Twins’ 2025 deadline activity is how uneven the results have become. Minnesota clearly weakened parts of the bullpen and sacrificed valuable depth, and the consequences are showing up almost nightly this season. At the same time, Bradley’s emergence gives the organization at least one foundational piece to point toward as evidence that not every move was designed strictly to cut costs.

Unfortunately for the Twins, one successful trade does not erase the growing list of questions surrounding the rest of the roster.

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Do you agree with the rankings above? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[thelanges5]

I don’t hate the individual trades so much as the number of total trades (except Varland) The lack of meaningful moves/signings in the offseason makes it even worse. Of course the architect (Falvey) is gone, but what was the plan here?

[LewFordLives]

The Varland trade was bad the moment it was made. It made no sense. Falvey clearly puts zero value in relievers. He always thought he was smart enough to piece together a bullpen. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Twins didn't fully  "clear Correa's contract" by giving him to Houston. There remains the "small" matter of $33,000,000 still owed by the Twins to Carlos. This whole Correa matter did not turn out well for the Twins organization financially. It just kept getting worse and the Twins are still paying.

[Over The Hill Again]

Said it then, still feel it now: the Varland trade not only made no tactical sense but also came across as a big middle finger to the fanbase. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Twins did not need Roden, even at his best. He is another  AAAA left-handed hitting corner OF and France was leaving any way. So it was basically Rojas for a team-controlled, fan favorite, Varland. It would have been an inexpensive benefit to have had Varland on today's ( and for years to come) Twins team. Last time I checked, the game of baseball is still 9 innings. Relief pitching wins and loses games, particularly when even the best starters only go 5-7 innings. Outman for Stewart was a predictable mistake. I'll give Falvey credit for trading a disgruntled Jax for Bradley. But all the other "deals" must have been learned from a flawed book, entitled. "The Art of the Deal".  

[Jack Pine]

In Outman's case (no options left) a good poker player  knows it's time to fold when you don't have the cards.

[Wedman13]

28 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

The Varland trade was bad the moment it was made. It made no sense. Falvey clearly puts zero value in relievers. He always thought he was smart enough to piece together a bullpen. 

.... which in all fairness, he did.  So why wouldn't he think he could again?

regarding Correa.... he is out.  He is not helping the twins, or the Astros.  Rather than paying full price for nothing, Houston took a good deal of the burden.  To me, that's a win.  Now the reinvestment of that saving, maybe not so much....

[Wedman13]

53 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

The Varland trade was bad the moment it was made. It made no sense. Falvey clearly puts zero value in relievers. He always thought he was smart enough to piece together a bullpen. 

I cannot stand the 'he's one of us bias'.... but I'm probably being obtuse.  There probably is value to bringing your kid to a game and saying 'if Louis, or Matt can do it, so can you.'

i like prospects so i like Rojas.  And we weren't winning this year anyway.  So why not go young.  But I 💯 get your point on Varland.

 

[IndianaTwin]

I don't get the "Twins pocketed the money after trading Correa" narrative.

They freed up about $21.5M:

• Bell: $7M
• Caratini: $7M
• Larnach: $4.475M (because after all, everyone on TD knew they weren't going tender Larnach and then thought it was the dumbest move ever when they did. /s)
• Rogers: $2M

That totals $20.475M, so either:

• The Twins did spend the money they saved on Correa; OR
• The Twins were going to make those signings anyway, which goes against the "cheap Pohlad" narrative.

Also, trading Correa also freed up future opportunities for redeploying Correa's money AND opened the opportunity to play Lee every day.

That's a clear win in my book. 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Twins didn't fully  "clear Correa's contract" by giving him to Houston. There remains the "small" matter of $33,000,000 still owed by the Twins to Carlos. This whole Correa matter did not turn out well for the Twins organization financially. It just kept getting worse and the Twins are still paying.

Yep Correa is the 2nd highest paid position player on our roster.  

[tony&rodney]

To some extent the July trades may have hinted at a lack of confidence in the Twins young pitchers (Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa, Morris). If your reputation was supposedly connected to building a strong pitching cohort it seemed odd to go to extreme lengths to add pitching prospects (Abel, Rojas,etc.), while jettisoning established and controlled relief pitchers (Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart). The trade of the out of favor Griffin Jax for Taj Bradley, at least, brought back an interesting albeit struggling pitcher. 

I tend to never think of trades in terms of wins and losses but prefer to see how a transaction improves the roster, whether that is to improve balance or talent. I'm not sure Falvey (or whomever was in charge) had all of their wits about them last July.

Thing is .... the Twins did gain a few players who could help the team (Bradley, Abel, Rojas) and I'll just hope these players progress quickly and become important for the Twins. What is gone ain't coming back.

[HeresWaldo]

The Bradley trade is definitely looking like the best of the bunch at this early date, but even that one I'm not sure we can safely call a win yet. Bradley looked absolutely spectacular to start the year and Jax was horrendous in late innings for the Rays in April. However, the Rays are now stretching Jax out as a starter and he's looking pretty dang good and Bradley is hurt. Additionally, while it's possible Jax regresses as a starter, I think we need to acknowledge that pitching models see an element of smoke and mirrors to Bradley's dominance. Pitching+ rates Bradley as essentially an average starting pitcher (99 rating so 1% below league average but well within the margin of error to just say he's average). I'm not saying this is a bad trade by any means. If they both turn out to be mid rotation starters the Twins won in terms of age and team control. If Bradley somehow beats the models and sustains his strong start the Twins win by default regardless of what Jax does. But there's still a real path here where Jax turns out to be a pretty good starter and Bradley either has nagging health injuries all season or just regresses in the ways models expect, so it feels too soon to say the Twins definitely won this one. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Wedman13 said:

I cannot stand the 'he's one of us bias'.... but I'm probably being obtuse.  There probably is value to bringing your kid to a game and saying 'if Louis, or Matt can do it, so can you.'

i like prospects so i like Rojas.  And we weren't winning this year anyway.  So why not go young.  But I 💯 get your point on Varland.

 

I agree with the analysis if we are focusing only on this year but I think that's not the right focus. I agree that it would be good to have Varland this year and he's pitching much better in Toronto than he did for the Twins, but it's way too early to evaluate that trade. Rojas clearly is an electric arm from the left side. The earliest he will be truly ready is next year, although he may provide some value this year. If, and it's a big if, he becomes a middle of the rotation guy or better that trade is actually a win/win, a win for the Twins if he's a top of the rotation arm. The simple truth is that starting pitching is much more valuable than relief pitching. And in this case, Rojas is controllable longer than Varland. Anything Roden provides is gravy and doesn't move the needle much unless he's a multi year high end starting OF -  very unlikely IMO. 

The other one that's hard to evaluate now is the Stewart for Outman trade. It was a lose/lose until now (the Dodgers got the princely sum of 4 innings in 2025 before Stewart blew out his arm again).  Now the Dodgers can get Stewart's 30 innings a year in the next 2 months and he'll be back on the shelf by late August. If they do, they win. If he blows his arm out again early or if he's ineffective from the cumulative injury toll, it remains a lose/lose. 

The Abel/Tait for Duran trade is going to be a win/win unless one of them gets injured long term. Philly gets Duran while their competitive window is wide open, we get 6 years of Abel in the rotation (#3 or better guy), and 6 years of Tait behind the plate starting in 2028 or so, both of which match the next time the Twins have a chance to be truly competitive. Also, Mendez for 3 months of Bader is a steal for us.

Overall, not so bad when yo line them all up and consider competitive windows. Take out the Varland trade and it's a B/B+ for the Twins, maybe even an A-. Add in Varland's trade and it remains a B/B+ ONLY if Rojas turns into a middle of the rotation or better starter. Otherwise, B- if he's a good bullpen arm, C if he washes out. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

“Trade deadlines are always judged too quickly.”

The article ends with this quote which is exactly right. It’s still too early to judge all the deals in their entirety. Would we have a couple more wins with Varland and Duran on the roster? Sure. Would they make this team a contender in 2026? Absolutely not.  So the question of whether the trades help in 2026 is just a matter of whether you want the Twins to be average to bad or possibly just average. I’d rather play the long game and see how these trades look in 2-3 years.

[bunsen82]

Most know my stance on Varland.  That trade in a vacuum should not have occurred.   Value wise yes decent value,  but you are giving up 5 years of a player that could be your closer.  I have a different stance regarding the draft.  The best way to get elite talent is to draft earlier in the draft.  So we will see what they do with the #3 draft pick.  

As to wins - right now that Abel and Tait trade is looking like a legit win.  It only takes a bit of a hit if he has a UCL issue.  They did use a cortisone shot, but it was for pain in the tricep area this time instead of the elbow.   Tait power is starting to show but he does need to improve the hitting tool some.  High A for a 19 year old is impressive.  He is still on a very good track.   Abel's arm talent looks legit though.   

Mendez is also a major win and maybe the best one.  Mendez bat is legit,  he just needs to improve his fly ball to ground ball ratio and slightly increase his walks.   4 home runs in 20 games is a massive improvement.  If he can get in that 15-20 range he will be a great asset for the MLB team.   Either as an oufielder, 1st baseman or true DH.   

[TJSweens]

"Stewart opened the season injured, but recently returned"

Sounds like the start of every season for Brock Stewart. It will likely be repeated two more times this year. I get that Outman sucks, but are we really lamenting the stability Brock Stewart would bring the bullpen for two weeks at a time?

[LewFordLives]

2 hours ago, Jack Pine said:

In Outman's case (no options left) a good poker player  knows it's time to fold when you don't have the cards.

Agreed. I didn't like the Stewart trade, but the stakes were small so I'm not going to lose sleep over it. The Twins have made it a truly bad trade by refusing to cut bait on Outman.

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Twins did not need Roden, even at his best. He is another  AAAA left-handed hitting corner OF and France was leaving any way. So it was basically Rojas for a team-controlled, fan favorite, Varland. It would have been an inexpensive benefit to have had Varland on today's ( and for years to come) Twins team. Last time I checked, the game of baseball is still 9 innings. Relief pitching wins and loses games, particularly when even the best starters only go 5-7 innings. Outman for Stewart was a predictable mistake. I'll give Falvey credit for trading a disgruntled Jax for Bradley. But all the other "deals" must have been learned from a flawed book, entitled. "The Art of the Deal".  

You wouldn't have done the Bader deal?  And from previous post, you would have preferred to be paying a full Correa salary?  If so I respectfully disagree 

[DuluthDuke]

I don't understand why Garcia is still being rostered... 

39 years young,. ERA north of 14. Given up 9 hits in 5.1 Innings as a Twin and zero, count em zero K's. Mets dumped him when he had 4 k's and an ERA of 7+ in 6+ innings.

Turn him into a coach if he's so valuable and play the kids. I have no idea who Raul Brito is but he's striking out a batter per inning with the Saints, lets see what he can do... Maybe he has an MLB future. Mr. Garcia does not.

We'll see on the Varland trade long term but short term does anyone think he would keep the bullpen afloat by himself? Ober to ? to ? to Varland? 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

23 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

You wouldn't have done the Bader deal?  And from previous post, you would have preferred to be paying a full Correa salary?  If so I respectfully disagree 

I agree with you about the Bader deal. The Correa salary dump was the correct thing to do, but the article stated  the deal "cleared" Correa's salary. I feel "cleared" means wiped clean. I was just reminding everyone that the Twins still owed Correa $33,000,000. I agree the C-4 deal substantially lowered the debt that the Twins owed to Correa, but to me, still owing $33,000,000 is not a clearing. It is more a smudging. LOL.

 

23 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

You wouldn't have done the Bader deal?  And from previous post, you would have preferred to be paying a full Correa salary?  If so I respectfully disagree 

I do appreciate your comments. They made good sense to me. 

[Major League Ready]

Trades for prospects are not made for the impact on the following season.  Should we judge the Duran trade based on him not making it to the majors until 4 seasons later?  Looking at this through this lens makes absolutely no sense.

[jmlease1]

Ranking trades based solely on their impact for the Twins 2026 MLB roster is useless.

It's still too soon to really evaluate most of these deals.

Losing Varland sucks, but if Rojas can be a guy then it still might not be a bad deal overall, especially if Roden gets healthy. The Duran deal still looks like it might be very good: Abel looked great before getting hurt (so waving off his contributions to 2026 while praising Duran's is fairly dumb) and Tait might be the catcher of the future. You have to give up something to get something, and these deals weren't made solely with 2026 in mind, so evaluating them only through that lens is kind of absurd.

And the Outman/Stewart deal is pretty meaningless too: Outman has been mostly useless, but Stewart is perpetually hurt. While I wouldn't have made that deal, it's not like you can count on Stewart when planning a bullpen. He's like a bonus if he throws. The Castro deal had zero impact on 2026, but it also had little impact on 2025 for the Twins, negative impact for the Cubs, and Gallagher might be something useful. How is it this low even with such a narrow lens?

I guess, congrats on getting me to comment?

[Trov]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

Agreed. I didn't like the Stewart trade, but the stakes were small so I'm not going to lose sleep over it. The Twins have made it a truly bad trade by refusing to cut bait on Outman.

Who would you use to replace him with?  Who do you want to sit on the end of the bench to pinch run and play defense at end of games instead of him? If you want a prospect called up for Outman, than you really want Wallner, Larnch, Martin, or Buck's time to get cut down. Possibly Bell as well since he mostly DH's and any of them could DH or give a prospect chance to DH.  Point is, you are not replacing Outman in the lineup, you are replacing someone else, or just asking the prospect to sit on bench and not get chance to hit.  It is not about Outman, his roll is limited.