Spring Temperature Check: Who's Hot and Who's Cold in Twins Camp? (Feb 20-23)

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Spring training is the season of overreactions. A pitching prospect touches 98 MPH, and suddenly he’s unhittable. A hitter sends one ball over the fence, and we’re rewriting the Opening Day lineup. That’s just how February works. But let’s take a breath.

Most Grapefruit League games are about buildup and execution. Starters get their work in, then the game turns into a rolling audition. Results are fun, but the process matters more. This recaps the Twins' first three spring training games. Thus far, they’re 2-1, with a 7-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox, an 8-1 win over the Atlanta Braves, and a 3-0 shutout victory over the Detroit Tigers.

With that in mind, here’s a quick early-spring temperature check on who’s trending up, and who’s still finding their footing.

Who’s Hot? ?

Emmanuel Rodriguez: If you’re looking for loud contact, Emmanuel Rodríguez is delivering it. The Twins' fourth-ranked prospect (according to MLB Pipeline) went 2-for-2 Sunday with a home run, jumping on a 2-0 cutter on the outer third and smashing it over the right-field wall. He followed that up on Monday with an absolute tank against Detroit, lefty on lefty, on a sinker over the heart of the plate: 420 feet, 107 MPH off the bat.

When he’s healthy and hitting balls that hard, his upside becomes very real, very fast.

Kendry Rojas: One of the Twins’ top pitching prospects, Rojas was flat-out dominant against Atlanta. Over two innings, he faced six batters, recorded six outs, and struck out three—and that came against not just any six hitters, but star big-leaguers. He faced Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies, and more than held his own.

The stuff backed it up. His fastball topped out at 98.5 mph and sat around 97, generating over 15 inches of vertical break on average. The changeup showed 10.7 inches of horizontal movement and paired beautifully off the heater. There were swings and misses throughout, and both pitches looked like legitimate weapons. He also generated three whiffs on just eight sliders.

For a guy who struggled at Triple-A last year, that’s extremely encouraging.

Alan Roden: He didn’t ease into his spring. Roden went 2-for-3 Sunday against the Braves, highlighted by a grand slam. The at-bat stood out just as much as the result; it was a seven-pitch battle that ended with a 3-2 fastball at the top of the zone. He didn’t miss it, driving it out to right-center. He also added a hard-hit single into center field. That’s about as clean a start as you can ask for.

Mick Abel: The command wasn’t perfect, but the raw stuff was very sharp. He threw three scoreless innings against Detroit’s projected starting lineup, allowing two hits, no walks, and striking out five. After a leadoff triple in the first inning, he regrouped and struck out the side, a nice early sign of poise.

His fastball topped out at 97.1 mph while sitting around 95, and he generated a ridiculous 12 swinging strikes on 46 pitches. Detroit simply couldn’t handle his fastball or changeup. The breaking ball command wavered at times, but overall, it was a very strong first outing for Abel.

Who’s Not? ?

Connor Prielipp: He didn’t allow a run and was credited with the win Monday, but this wasn’t the clean outing you were hoping for from Prielipp. Over 1 2/3 innings against Detroit’s projected starters, he gave up one hit, walked three, and struck out two. The stuff itself was solid. His fastball topped out at 97.5 mph, and both the slider and changeup regularly crept into the low 90s.

The issue was location. He threw just 21 strikes on 41 pitches, and when you’re walking three of the nine hitters you face, it’s hard to call it sharp, even if the radar gun looks great. The arsenal is there; the command just has to catch up.

Matt Wallner: Through five plate appearances this spring, Matt Wallner is 0-for-5 with four strikeouts. The only ball he’s put in play was a pop-up. It’s five plate appearances, and nobody’s panicking in February. But for a hitter whose profile already includes swing-and-miss red flags, you’d rather see some early contact.

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Again, this is spring training. These games often turn into minor-league scrimmages by the middle innings. A hot week doesn’t guarantee anything, and a slow one doesn’t doom anyone. But if we’re just taking an early pulse, a few Twins prospects are already making this spring a lot more interesting.

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[HerbieFan]

"you’d rather see some early contact."  Some contact....any contact.  So Wallner is in mid-season form...

[bunsen82]

Bradley not on the list.  3 innings pitched,  1 run,  the stuff looked very very good for 2+ innings.  flattened a bit for the 3rd.   The practice bullpen against Twins hitters he supposedly made several look silly.  Priellip -  thats still an effective outing if not inefficient.  

The Twins look like they will have several hard throwers coming up,  Priellip 97/98,  Rojas 98,  Abel 98, Bradley 97.    

Martin has continued to bring a hot bat into spring training.  I think he is only behind Rodriguez at this point.  Other than the injury to Lopez which is a big development,  the development of these young pitchers and hitters like Rodriguez, Martin and Roden looks very promising.   Its early,  its the preseason but the process and results looks good so far.  

[jmlease1]

I'll take any result that doesn't mean the Twins carry Outman on the roster via scholarship, whether it's Roden or Rodriguez tearing the cover off the ball or something else. I just want that 4th OF position to get WON by someone, not handed to them.

[rdehring]

Abel, Bradley and Rojas all have excellent first outings.  That is just flat out FANTASTIC!  Bring on opening day.

[miller761]

I hope there is this much optimism the 3rd week of March.

 

[JADBP]

At this rate....and I know it is very early....but Wallner is headed for AAAA and Rodriguez could take his spot away...for a very long time!  Wallner's stats last year were abysmal...I wouldn't mind the swapout.  I'd rather start giving ERod and Jenkins time on the field than keep a .202 hitter in RF!

[hitterscount]

Running back Wallner and Larnach is possibly the most incompetent front office strategy any GM could deploy. How many seasons of data is needed to move on..... apparently the eyes will get another season of ineptness at the plate with a dose of pathetic defensive play. 

[Nshore]

I'm still rooting for Roden.  He wouldn't be the first player to go to a new team and flat line before getting his feet on the ground and taking off.  I'd love to see the the athleticism of Roden and Martin give a charge into this team for a full season.

.  

[DocBauer]

Not worried about Wallner this early and only 5 AB. He spent the offseason developing a somewhat different approach. But it sure is nice to a healthy Rodriguez really stepping up.

Same with Roden! I think he could have a nice career as a 4th OF who can also play some 1B, which is something I hope he still works on. But for now, I'm just hoping he earns the LF job in camp. While he doesn't have loud tools, he has a nice collection of them to do a little bit of everything. 

And I'm with @jmlease1in regard to Outman. He's simply been bad since his surprise rookie season. And his defense with the Twins to finish 2025 didn't exactly inspire. And he turns 29yo in May. What exactly does he bring to the Twins to warrant a spot? Roden and Martin are younger, have much more potential, and both can help give Buxton a day off. And when 2 of your top 4 prospects are talented CF and already at AAA, there's just no reason for Outman to be on the team. And I seriously doubt anyone grabs him if waived. But even someone did, the St Paul OF is CROWDED already.

And while I like Larnach and think he's a pretty solid ballplayer, I still don't see where he fits on THIS team. By their own admission, the Twins need more speed and athleticism and better defenders. Martin and Roden give you that in LF/OF. 

While Bell is targeted to be the 1B, I still think Clemens, Wagaman, and a little Caratini might play as much, or more, 1B than Bell. And while it's a weirdly assembled roster, that can actually work, with Bell being the primary DH.

Keeping Larnach...much less Outman as well...removes at least one of Martin and Roden, if not both. So you suddenly have a poor LF defender...who the Twins prefer to DH...yet again, and a guy who can't hit his way out of a paper bag. Someone give the FO another cup of coffee or a Red Bull to WAKE UP and realize you can have an imperfect roster, or a horrible one.

That being said, I can still see Larnach having a role as the LH DH for a different team, who can still play some corner OF, on a fairly cheap deal. Agaon, he's not a bad ballplayer. He has value. And all I ask back is an interesting arm, or an interesting utility INF who can cover SS. Can he bring back the next Punto or Castro? Or maybe another teams version of Varland who needs to be converted to the pen? It's not a big ask. Buxton, Wallner, Roden, and Martin is just a lot better than Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, and Outman. 

Did you cringe there? I know I did.

In regard to the pitching side of things, a few opening games means very little. But flashing early is a hell of a lot better than looking bad! Rojas faced an actual ML lineup and was great. Maybe the Jays weren't wrong to promote him so aggressively? The fact that he struggled at AAA because the ball is different sounds weird, but it is true that AAA uses the same ball as MLB, and AA and below use a slightly different ball. That remains weird and stupid IMO. It's a billionaire establishment for goodness sake. All levels should use the same damn ball!

Abel faced a ML lineup and flashed. Bradley had a solid debut. And while Prielipp was inefficient, he more or less got the job mostly done in his ST debut. You simply can't get overly excited after 1 appearances for these young arms. But again, looking good is much better than looking bad.

In all honesty, I'm 60yo, and have been a Twins fan since around 5-6yo just listening to games with my dad. A few years later, age 10 or so, I became a fanatic. I read every newspaper and magazine I could get my hands on to follow the Twins, and the MILB system. Star Trib, Baseball Digest, the Sporting News, and whatever Rag I could get my hands on.

In 50 years or so as a Twins fanatic...God bless my soul, lol...there has been ONE TIME, in the 80's when the Twins had a prospect list of quality arms that were the envy of half the league. That was Baumgardner, Gasser, Nivens, Banks, Pittman, and Sontag. Forgive me for exact spellings. CRUSHING DEFEAT as a fan when that collection never turned out.

I'm being long winded I know. Sorry, not sorry. POTENTIAL really isn't a dirty word. Ignoring, for a moment, that the Twins made Lopez and Ryan better, and developed Ober. And also ignoring the collection of 2026 arms at A÷ and A- that are SUPER talented, or, about to debut after the '25 draft.

I honestly can't recall the Twins having this much TALENT on hand. Talent that doesn't make it is wasted hopes and dreams crushed. I get it. But SP or Bullpen, when is the last time you could see this much POTENTIAL of arms for the Twins?

While the silver lining for Lopez's injury is crushing overall, it DOES open up opportunity. Ryan leads the team, Ober is healthy again, SWR and his new splitter takes him up another notch, Bradley, Matthews, Abel are all very talented. Who takes a step forward? And i haven't even mentioned Festa for the pen, or the potential of Prielipp, and Rojas.

It wasn't that long ago where Morris...vastly underrated...might be among the Twins top pitching prospects.

Again, cool the brakes a bit on the arms so early in camp. But it's also easy to dream on so many good arms taking a step forward. 

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

17 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Bradley not on the list.  3 innings pitched,  1 run,  the stuff looked very very good for 2+ innings.  flattened a bit for the 3rd.   The practice bullpen against Twins hitters he supposedly made several look silly.  Priellip -  thats still an effective outing if not inefficient.  

The Twins look like they will have several hard throwers coming up,  Priellip 97/98,  Rojas 98,  Abel 98, Bradley 97.    

Martin has continued to bring a hot bat into spring training.  I think he is only behind Rodriguez at this point.  Other than the injury to Lopez which is a big development,  the development of these young pitchers and hitters like Rodriguez, Martin and Roden looks very promising.   Its early,  its the preseason but the process and results looks good so far.  

I think Bradley is going to be a pleasant surprise. The Rays don't lose trades too often and they tend to get rid of players at the right time - but...I think this one instance might be where they have made a mistake.

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I think Bradley is going to be a pleasant surprise. The Rays don't lose trades too often and they tend to get rid of players at the right time - but...I think this one instance might be where they have made a mistake.

I actually thought this was a good trade at the time it was made.  Still remains to be seen, but I am hopeful that it was a good trade.

[jmlease1]

19 hours ago, rdehring said:

Abel, Bradley and Rojas all have excellent first outings.  That is just flat out FANTASTIC!  Bring on opening day.

It's spring training, it should be a time for optimism!

After last season's dreadful start in AAA, where it looked like the Twins had pushed Rojas to stick in Saint Paul when he really should have been in AA, I was thinking Rojas wasn't really going to be an option to pitch in MLB this season and would only see time if the rotation was utterly decimated by injuries/ineffectiveness. While I don't think he's a true contender for the rotation on Opening Day, it's great to see for ourselves why he was rocketing up prospect boards and why he was the prize in the Varland deal.

I like having an open competition between Bradley, Matthews, Abel, and maybe Festa and Rojas or even Morris for the last spots in the rotation. Much like the OF, I want to see prospects WIN the jobs not for anyone to get handed a key role on scholarship.

[jmlease1]

I should note, that as much as I bash Outman and don't think he's a good fit for the team, if he goes out and wins the job by killing it in spring training (showing that he can really play CF well, hitting effectively and showing a good process, proving that his speed is back, etc) and outperforming the competition...then fine. My biggest beef with him is presuming that he gets an OF job and a 26-man spot because he's out of options.

No scholarships. Go win the jobs.