How Low Could the Minnesota Twins' Payroll Go?

[jmlease1]

It's possible for them to drop the payroll all the way down to the $65-70M range, but even for the Cheap Pohlads and their terrible mismanagement of the business aspects of baseball, that seems unlikely.

If you take their words (leaked and otherwise) at face value, they were claiming a loss of $30M was pending on a payroll of $142M. Again, if you presume they're being honest about wiping out the team's debt with the addition of limited partners, that should take $12M off the books at a minimum (presuming a favorable 3% interest rate on the $400M in debt). If $112M was the break-even point in 2025 and you're taking $12M of costs off the books, you could assume a payroll in the $120-125M range would be supportable without losing money on an annual basis. (let me be clear: under no circumstances to I think anyone should ever believe a professional sports owner when they make claims about their money unless you have the books in front of you and a forensic account by your side...and even then, you should probably get a second opinion)

Now, I'm quite certain that season ticket and ticket package sales are in the dumpster right now and attendance will be substantially lower than last season's poor showing, but even then it should take additional bungling for the team to lose money on a payroll of $110M. It's certainly possible, of course: they've botched the business of baseball even more than the on-field product over the past 30 years.

I would guess the floor is somewhere in the $105-110M range, with an upper limit of $125M. But with the Pohlads at the helm, anything is possible. I'd hardly be shocked if they forced a Pablo trade and tried to sell the fanbase that we should be happy they "let" the front office spend back up to $95M. We've come to expect tone-deaf and clueless statements from them for sure.

[farmerguychris]

13 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

You left out one of the Twins guaranteed contracts. The ghost of Correa is getting $10mil - third highest on the team as of now. 

Is there anything stopping the team from trying to get out of that debt?

Maybe if we sent the Astros someone like Lopez we could see that wasted money go away?

NOT ever what i would wish for, but also something i wouldn't put past the Pohlads from exploring?

Give them Lopez and in return they'll give us back $10M per year?

 

[laloesch]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

It's possible for them to drop the payroll all the way down to the $65-70M range, but even for the Cheap Pohlads and their terrible mismanagement of the business aspects of baseball, that seems unlikely.

If you take their words (leaked and otherwise) at face value, they were claiming a loss of $30M was pending on a payroll of $142M. Again, if you presume they're being honest about wiping out the team's debt with the addition of limited partners, that should take $12M off the books at a minimum (presuming a favorable 3% interest rate on the $400M in debt). If $112M was the break-even point in 2025 and you're taking $12M of costs off the books, you could assume a payroll in the $120-125M range would be supportable without losing money on an annual basis. (let me be clear: under no circumstances to I think anyone should ever believe a professional sports owner when they make claims about their money unless you have the books in front of you and a forensic account by your side...and even then, you should probably get a second opinion)

Now, I'm quite certain that season ticket and ticket package sales are in the dumpster right now and attendance will be substantially lower than last season's poor showing, but even then it should take additional bungling for the team to lose money on a payroll of $110M. It's certainly possible, of course: they've botched the business of baseball even more than the on-field product over the past 30 years.

I would guess the floor is somewhere in the $105-110M range, with an upper limit of $125M. But with the Pohlads at the helm, anything is possible. I'd hardly be shocked if they forced a Pablo trade and tried to sell the fanbase that we should be happy they "let" the front office spend back up to $95M. We've come to expect tone-deaf and clueless statements from them for sure.

This. 

That 30 million loss (if it's real), is really REALLY bad news for the team.  Like they could go back to 85-90 million a year payrolls.  I am not expecting the team hangs onto Pablo long in the offseason.  They won't dump Buxton (because they can't and he wants to stay in Minnesota), but Pablo I'm sure would gladly be anywhere but here. They will use the excuse to get prospects for him, but the trade will not be that fruitfull. 

I remember the mid to late 90's very well.  This ownership would go dirt cheap in a heartbeat to pay off debts, its in their DNA.  Like they've got BIG BIGGGGG loses in their commercial investments, most of which was rolled onto the Twin's franchise in that 400 million in debt.  

[laloesch]

20 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Rumor has it they just laid off a bunch of employees on the business side of the organization. If anyone expects payroll to be near $120 million you’re incredibly naive. 

Yep.  I remember hearing this as well.  They were also shuttering a bunch of the Target Field concessions in certain locations.  From an outsider's position looking in, it looks and feels like a bankruptcy maneuver.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

Yep.  I remember hearing this as well.  They were also shuttering a bunch of the Target Field concessions in certain locations.  From an outsider's position looking in, it looks and feels like a bankruptcy maneuver.

I attended a game at Dodger Stadium when they were going through that.  You're not wrong about the vibe among the concession stands.  Dunno why they cut corners that way, but apparently they do.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

Yep.  I remember hearing this as well.  They were also shuttering a bunch of the Target Field concessions in certain locations.  From an outsider's position looking in, it looks and feels like a bankruptcy maneuver.

Deleware North handles concessions. Many of the concession stands are staffed largely by volunteers for some reason.

[Linus]

I think there is a real possibility that the Pohlads promised the new minority partners  an immediate windfall in 26 and 27 by tanking payroll. The minority owners paid over market price for their shares which tells me there had to be some sort of agreement similar to this. It also lines up as a “baseball rebuild” providing cover 

[howeda7]

What will they do? Who knows. But they can afford a $140-ish million payroll as they did last year. Their TV revenues should go up slightly with ESPN stepping in and distributing it. 

[Major League Ready]

If they decide to abandon the rebuild, they will need to spend $200M and/or trade away considerable assets if they want to have a reasonable shot at being a legit playoff team.  Even then, it would be a stretch.  They have no BP, no 1B, well below average SS and 3B, and below average corner OFers, and they need a catcher.

If they decide to continue the rebuild, payroll will be low by design.  The only signings would likely be 2-3 BP arms because they got nothing.  You don't fill those holes at SS/3B and corner OF with free agents when you have guys ready to fill those spots.  1B, maybe.  BU catcher, probably.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Based on the new managerial hire, I’d say 26x800k+C4=$30.8m

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Deleware North handles concessions. Many of the concession stands are staffed largely by volunteers for some reason.

It’s the food, not the labor.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

If they decide to abandon the rebuild, they will need to spend $200M and/or trade away considerable assets if they want to have a reasonable shot at being a legit playoff team.  Even then, it would be a stretch.  They have no BP, no 1B, well below average SS and 3B, and below average corner OFers, and they need a catcher.

If they decide to continue the rebuild, payroll will be low by design.  The only signings would likely be 2-3 BP arms because they got nothing.  You don't fill those holes at SS/3B and corner OF with free agents when you have guys ready to fill those spots.  1B, maybe.  BU catcher, probably.

I generally agree with this. I'm not sure this is what they will do but I think this is what they should do.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

With the Shelton hiring...is that even a serious question?

[tony&rodney]

$90-115M for the 26 person roster, with room for a couple of free agent pitchers and perhaps one higher paid bat. 

[laloesch]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

$90-115M for the 26 person roster, with room for a couple of free agent pitchers and perhaps one higher paid bat. 

I'd guess much closer to 90 million possibly less.  I don't think they are done cutting payroll.  I fully expect Pablo Lopez to be shipped out fairly quickly for prospects.  He's the most valuable chip they have besides Ryan and Buxton who is not going to be traded unless he gets so fed up with how things are going that he waives his no trade clause.    

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

I'd guess much closer to 90 million possibly less.  I don't think they are done cutting payroll.  I fully expect Pablo Lopez to be shipped out fairly quickly for prospects.  He's the most valuable chip they have besides Ryan and Buxton who is not going to be traded unless he gets so fed up with how things are going that he waives his no trade clause.    

Yes. The franchise is in a dark place. Those were just my guesses ($90-115M). I will not be surprised by any number below $90M, even $60M although that seems unlikely. I guess $60-70M might be as likely as $135-145M.

Pablo Lopez is really good but it is hard to see a team out there giving up what is required to acquire him. I believe he stays. 

[Major League Ready]

My guess is that Lopez starts the season with the Twins but gets traded at the deadline unless we have a shockingly good 1st half.  That would put us around $92M (see below) to start the year.  This assumes they run with Clemens and/or prospects at 1B.  IDK if they get a free agent or if maybe they give Mendez or Fedko a month in the minors at 1B and then give one of them a go.  Sabato might even get a shot if he starts out the year well.

1	Pablo Lopez	21,750,000		2028
2	Bailey Ober	5,500,000	Arb-2	2028
3	Zebby Matthews	780,000
4	Taj Bradley	780,000
5	SWR	780,000
Abel / Festa /  Morris / Rojas / Prelipp / Culpepper / Ohl
	Relief Pitchers
6	Free Agent	7,500,000
7	Free Agent	5,000,000
8	Free Agent	3,000,000
9	Cole Sands	780,000
10	Cody Funderburk	780,000
11	Cody Laweryson	780,000
12	?	780,000	C-Opt
13	?	780,000
Morris / Raya /  Duarte /  Culpepper / Klein
	Catchers
14	Ryan Jeffers	6,500,000	Arb-3	2027
15	Perades  /  Cardenas	780,000
	Infielders
1B	Clemens / Sabato / Fedko or Trade	780,000
2B	Luke Keaschall	780,000
3B	Royce Lewis	3,000,000	Arb-2	2029
SS	Brooks Lee  >>> Kaelen Culpepper	780,000
	Utility Players
20	Kody Clemens	780,000
21	Fitzgerald  >>>  Brooks Lee	780,000
22	Kyler Fedko	780,000
23	Wallner  >>> Gonzalez / Rosario	2,000,000		2030
	Outfielders
24	Martin  >>> Jenkins	780,000
25	Byron Buxton  CF	15,142,857		2029
24	Roden	780,000
	Carlos Correa	10,000,000
	TOTAL PAYROLL	92,652,857

[ashbury]

The payroll floggings will continue until fanbase morale improves.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

My guess is that Lopez starts the season with the Twins but gets traded at the deadline unless we have a shockingly good 1st half.  That would put us around $92M (see below) to start the year.  This assumes they run with Clemens and/or prospects at 1B.  IDK if they get a free agent or if maybe they give Mendez or Fedko a month in the minors at 1B and then give one of them a go.  Sabato might even get a shot if he starts out the year well.

1	Pablo Lopez	21,750,000		2028
2	Bailey Ober	5,500,000	Arb-2	2028
3	Zebby Matthews	780,000
4	Taj Bradley	780,000
5	SWR	780,000
Abel / Festa /  Morris / Rojas / Prelipp / Culpepper / Ohl
	Relief Pitchers
6	Free Agent	7,500,000
7	Free Agent	5,000,000
8	Free Agent	3,000,000
9	Cole Sands	780,000
10	Cody Funderburk	780,000
11	Cody Laweryson	780,000
12	?	780,000	C-Opt
13	?	780,000
Morris / Raya /  Duarte /  Culpepper / Klein
	Catchers
14	Ryan Jeffers	6,500,000	Arb-3	2027
15	Perades  /  Cardenas	780,000
	Infielders
1B	Clemens / Sabato / Fedko or Trade	780,000
2B	Luke Keaschall	780,000
3B	Royce Lewis	3,000,000	Arb-2	2029
SS	Brooks Lee  >>> Kaelen Culpepper	780,000
	Utility Players
20	Kody Clemens	780,000
21	Fitzgerald  >>>  Brooks Lee	780,000
22	Kyler Fedko	780,000
23	Wallner  >>> Gonzalez / Rosario	2,000,000		2030
	Outfielders
24	Martin  >>> Jenkins	780,000
25	Byron Buxton  CF	15,142,857		2029
24	Roden	780,000
	Carlos Correa	10,000,000
	TOTAL PAYROLL	92,652,857

More than Ryan will come off this list, while others will be added. Either way my guess is $90-115M.

FWIW, Matt Wallner is still $780,000 for next year I believe. Also, numerous sites state a bonus payment to Carlos Correa of $1.33M to be paid in addition to the $10M salary help for Houston.

We should have a poll on readers' guesses.

[Major League Ready]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

More than Ryan will come off this list, while others will be added. Either way my guess is $90-115M.

FWIW, Matt Wallner is still $780,000 for next year I believe. Also, numerous sites state a bonus payment to Carlos Correa of $1.33M to be paid in addition to the $10M salary help for Houston.

We should have a poll on readers' guesses.

Who are you thinking.  As you know, Buxton has a no-trade clause.  Jeffers is the only salary of consequence, and I think there is a reasonable chance they keep him around for some continuity with a young pitching staff unless they get a really good return.  

[SteveLV]

Major League Ready, if the Twins spend $7.5M for a FA relief pitcher I will buy you a lunch!

No chance in heck do they do any such thing.

They also wont spend $5.5M for another relief pitcher, either. 

Rest of the numbers look ok'ish.  About $85M pending a decision on Pablo.

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Who are you thinking.  As you know, Buxton has a no-trade clause.  Jeffers is the only salary of consequence, and I think there is a reasonable chance they keep him around for some continuity with a young pitching staff unless they get a really good return.  

The Twins should not trade just to trade. Their payroll using your list and adding Ryan is below $100M. My idea is that the front office should be looking everywhere and finding matches. So I expect 3-5 trades. Who? No idea, but it could be anyone really except Buxton. There is buzz from New York City for the Twins to give up Ryan for a package of decent players. Decent doesn't cut it for Ryan and the team doesn't need any more mid to back end rotation prospects or utility players. There should be demand from a number of teams. I'm fine with keeping Jeffers, but he is gone after next season so a good return now does make sense. My only wish is for players who are interesting, either established to an extent or top prospects.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins should not trade just to trade. Their payroll using your list and adding Ryan is below $100M. My idea is that the front office should be looking everywhere and finding matches. So I expect 3-5 trades. Who? No idea, but it could be anyone really except Buxton. There is buzz from New York City for the Twins to give up Ryan for a package of decent players. Decent doesn't cut it for Ryan and the team doesn't need any more mid to back end rotation prospects or utility players. There should be demand from a number of teams. I'm fine with keeping Jeffers, but he is gone after next season so a good return now does make sense. My only wish is for players who are interesting, either established to an extent or top prospects.

I agree on Jeffers and have said previously he could go if the return is a player with a reasonable shot at making an impact.  I just don't see that happening for 1 year of Jeffers.  We shall see.

Larnach very likely goes.  I didn't mention him because I see the return as inconsequential.  So, I ask my self who could bring a return of consequence.  The only two players are Ryan and Lopez, IMO.  They may make other trades but who else can they trade that would return a player that matters.  Lewis has no value right now.  Why sell at the bottom?  Trading Keaschall makes zero sense, and trading any prospect of consequence makes absolutely no sense unless it was trading from depth like OF prospects for an infield prospect or catcher.  IDK if there will be 2 trades or 6 but I just can't come up with any scenarios beyond Ryan and Lopez that will matter.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree on Jeffers and have said previously he could go if the return is a player with a reasonable shot at making an impact.  I just don't see that happening for 1 year of Jeffers.  We shall see.

Larnach very likely goes.  I didn't mention him because I see the return as inconsequential.  So, I ask my self who could bring a return of consequence.  The only two players are Ryan and Lopez, IMO.  They may make other trades but who else can they trade that would return a player that matters.  Lewis has no value right now.  Why sell at the bottom?  Trading Keaschall makes zero sense, and trading any prospect of consequence makes absolutely no sense unless it was trading from depth like OF prospects for an infield prospect or catcher.  IDK if there will be 2 trades or 6 but I just can't come up with any scenarios beyond Ryan and Lopez that will matter.

Thing is we don't know how another team values Twins. Pittsburgh is even more desperate than MN for bats. Does a Matt Wallner for Jared Jones make sense? Would it if Ka'lai Rosaroi or Kyle DeBarge were added? Arizona needs pitching and is loaded with young infielders but only has one position open (3B). Jordan Lawler has crashed in his first attempts for Arizona. Does a Matthews or Ober for Lawler make sense? I guess it is impossible to know. Many people just state trades are selling low or that another team would be foolish to sell low. I would suggest conversations take place and a few teams take some gambles on low for low trades. It is senseless to always be concerned about letting a guy go and then that player becomes a star. Going along with the same guys is not an option for me. I do understand that it is for many others. In the end I'm just a baseball fan and Twins fan.

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Thing is we don't know how another team values Twins. Pittsburgh is even more desperate than MN for bats. Does a Matt Wallner for Jared Jones make sense? Would it if Ka'lai Rosaroi or Kyle DeBarge were added? Arizona needs pitching and is loaded with young infielders but only has one position open (3B). Jordan Lawler has crashed in his first attempts for Arizona. Does a Matthews or Ober for Lawler make sense? I guess it is impossible to know. Many people just state trades are selling low or that another team would be foolish to sell low. I would suggest conversations take place and a few teams take some gambles on low for low trades. It is senseless to always be concerned about letting a guy go and then that player becomes a star. Going along with the same guys is not an option for me. I do understand that it is for many others. In the end I'm just a baseball fan and Twins fan.

This is creative thinking.  I like it and would encourage this kind of move.  Our difference here is that I see a low for low move as very secondary in importance with a considerably lower chance of impacting the team.  Don't get me wrong.  This sounds like something the Rays would pull off and have it work out.  

I would rather trade Ober and Wallner for Lawler than trade Matthews.  

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I would rather trade Ober and Wallner for Lawler than trade Matthews.  

Me too. At the risk of being obnoxiously repetitive I'll repeat that the status quo isn't good enough. Rolling it back again isn't an option in my mind. I do understand many are in favor of keeping the current roster and believe they will blossom. My inclusion of Matthews was an attempt to view possibilities from an Arizona lens. Naturally, I have zero idea if there are opportunities with Arizona but there must be some possible transactions with some teams.

These are lower moves. I'm actually interested in signing Josh Naylor, a reserve veteran catcher, and trading Joe Ryan as my major moves. The lesser moves would complement the larger ones.

[DJL44]

Looks like Kody Clemens will fall short of Super-Two status and not qualify for arbitration.

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Pittsburgh is even more desperate than MN for bats.

Larnach for Joey Bart?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

This is creative thinking.  I like it and would encourage this kind of move.  Our difference here is that I see a low for low move as very secondary in importance with a considerably lower chance of impacting the team.  Don't get me wrong.  This sounds like something the Rays would pull off and have it work out.  

I would rather trade Ober and Wallner for Lawler than trade Matthews.  

I think AZ is moving Lawler to CF this coming year, but he was someone I would have targeted before. Now? Unsure? But I'd try him.

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think AZ is moving Lawler to CF this coming year, but he was someone I would have targeted before. Now? Unsure? But I'd try him.

Part of the reason I mention Lawler is because he is a fantastic shortstop but did not feel comfortable at third base. Arizona has All-Stars at 2B and SS, so there is no way he gets an opportunity there. The switch to centerfield runs into challenges too because Arizona has a decent, albeit potentially replaceable,  guy out there. The D-backs need starting pitchers though and thus my thoughts. I want the Twins to take a gamble like this. It may completely fail but the team cannot get any worse.