Road to a Rebound: Matt Wallner

[tony&rodney]

Would Wallner be on the 26 person rosters of any of the teams that were among the final four playoff teams this year? That just popped into my head and is admittedly not real pertinent to the current discussion.

Nick, the comparison using OPS+ of Wallner to Allison, Hrbek, and Oliva says much more about OPS+ than their relative value ... to me. But, maybe this is how people view players.

I'm curious whether any of the other 29 clubs see OPS+ value as a key figure and are going to pinpoint Matt Wallner in discussions with theTwins.

[JADBP]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I have much more faith in Lewis & Lee to figure things out than Wallner, Because they are more natural hitters. Sano, Wallner, Larnach, Julien & to some extent Jeffers have come up in the MiLB learning the same hitting approach. Iniatally had a lot of power success, but MLB pitchers adjusted, which minimized clutch HRs & maximized SOs, leaving them useless. Sano & Julien couldn't readjust. Larnach & Jeffers adjusted so they wouldn't SO so much but greatly affected their HR counts. Wallner? Like Larnach & Jeffers, IMO, will adjust, but how many clutch HRs will he hit? Not many. IMO, his hitting will not justify is lack of defense, which justifies his keep. It pains me to see players like Wallner not develop correctly & although I'd love to see hometown Wallner do well, I've added him to my long past list of players that we need to trade before they become worthless (that Falvey ignores).

Sano Adjusted???

I agree 1000% what you are getting at here (just not the Sano part). 

The problem is that Falvey and maybe the players know that HR's put butts in seats and money in pockets.  So, for a  guy like Wallner, with all that power at hand, he's gonna try to maximize his contracts by hitting a lot of dingers.  Smart players (e.g., Buxton, Correa) will take HRs when the pitch allows, but knows that getting on base (rather than K) is the real goal. 

I heard Falvey some years back say something along the lines of how great it would be to hit all these HRs.  I think he might have been spoiled by the Bomba squad and has been trying to replicate that since.  It is a failed approach but not sure the organization has figured that out yet.  

If this were my team, I'd make Wallner the full time DH and bring up either Jenkins or ERod or whoever is most ready.  There is going to be a lot of learning going on next year....rip off the band-aid and get  these players into MLB!

[JADBP]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t dislike the “guy” but relative to critiquing his hitting……I guess I’d be considered one of the hounds you refer to above.

I just don’t understand how one can have 22 HR with 40 total RBI over nearly 400 AB’s???

Getting “his stats” are what every guy is trying to do - I get that, but Wallner (getting back to his stats) walking as much as he does along with his pretty good frequency and total of HR’s, his Production as contribution to Wins is abysmal!

I guess that after ‘25, I have lost any confidence in the guy. In ‘24, he started so slow that he was sent down for 10 weeks. He came back and had a pretty decent last 10 weeks. One can’t be hurt or performing poorly for big chunks of time, season after season, AND be involved in a Teams plans for the future!

It's not that hard...just keep coming up to the plate with no runners on and he will not run up the RBI score no matter how many HRs he hits (no one is going to hit 100 HRs).  That's most likely a result of 4 things:  1) other batters are not doing their job getting on base in front of Wallner, 2) bad coaching with an emphasis on HR's not getting on base, and 3) bad lineup construction and 4) Wallner swinging for the fences rather than taking an RBI-producing single.  Wallner has no ability to affect whether or not he comes up with runners on base.  

One more thing....yanking him every time a LH pitcher comes into the game is just plain idiotic!  I am hoping the new coach helps him learn to hit lefties instead of yanking him in the 4th inning!

[Eephus]

He reminds me of Joey Gallo. Big ox with good mobility wedded to trying to hit the ball 500 ft. Casual observation to me is Wallner actually sort of emulates Gallo in the pre-pitch routine. He needs a different role model.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Great example of the disconnect between perception and reality with Wallner! We're treating him like he's been a disaster at the plate -- he has a 127 career OPS+. That would rank in the top 10 all time for this franchise. For reference: Allison 127, Hrbek 128, Oliva 131.

Talk about disconnect? Wallner has less than 1000 plate appearances and you are comparing to guys that did it with 5924. 7137, and 6880.

You realized Jullien after 408 his OPS+ was 130, right? Or Royce Lewis's was even better after 300 plus at bats. What was Bobby Kielty after 400 plus at bats? 

I want Wallner to be who he was in 23 and 24 for full seasons over the next 8-12 years, 

But can we stop comparing him to MVP type players when he has played a fraction of games as them? 

[Fred]

7 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

There is a good bat in there. I don't trust him longer term on defense in right, but he is fine there for now. I am curious how Roden looks in the field and at the plate and if his contact ability and speed on the bases would be enough to offset Wallner's bat by being in the field compared to Wallner. I am also very excited for the potential of Jenkins and Rodriguez, so we'll see.

All of this tells me too that IF they are going to trade someone like Joe Ryan, I don't know that I see an outfielder as the primary focus for the return unless they are also planning on moving on from Wallner and others.

Both Wallner and Larnach need to go. All 4 outfielders at AAA (Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, and Fedko) should be given a shot. It's not like the Twins would have to get much out of 2 of them to replace Wallner and Larnach.  And they would be cheaper.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

It's the situational splits.

For his career, his OPS when the game is within 1 run has been .708.  Once the game margin is more than 4 runs, his OPS swells to 1.090.  His 2025 was like this but even a little more extreme.  Once the game is pretty much decided, Wallner's your man.  I think that's where the "disconnect between perception and reality" comes from - because totals aren't necessarily "reality" and sometimes perception is a clue to look deeper.

By contrast, this year Byron Buxton was good in those >4 Run situations, .841 OPS - but he was even better when the game was within 1 run, .971.  Most of us enjoyed Buxton's season, and he defies the MLB-wide trend, which in 2025 was .746/.713 - almost everybody hits a little better when the game gets out of hand.  Wallner's just been an extreme case.

Yeah, I think it's safe to rule out "clutch," factors. This is a level of competition thing. Wallner's career numbers are a microcosm of the Twins offense the last few seasons. Blow up bad pitching and go absolutely dormant against better arms. For all the chirping about their team OPS being top 10 in 2023, there's a reason that team only won 87 games, in a terrible division, with one of the best (and healthiest) SP groups in baseball. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, Fred said:

Both Wallner and Larnach need to go. All 4 outfielders at AAA (Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, and Fedko) should be given a shot. It's not like the Twins would have to get much out of 2 of them to replace Wallner and Larnach.  And they would be cheaper.

I do think Larnach is on another team next year. Actually I'd be surprised if he is on the team in 2026. I do think it's possible he could be traded for something useful (a middle reliever for example?) but Wallner has had success with the bat before, so even though he had a down year in 2025, I certainly wouldn't get rid of him for nothing.

And I love what Gonzalez and Fedko did last year in the minors. I can't YET say either are ready for a starting role. Jenkins I THINK can be that at some point, but he'll most likely get some time at AAA for the start of the year. Rodriguez absolutely has the potential to be that too and I hope he can be healthy for a lengthened time. 

To start the year, as of now, I'd imagine some combo of Buxton and Roden and Martin can be enough until Jenkins is ready, or others. But maybe they do have Wallner in right until that point?

[sweetmusicviola16]

I want to see legitimate ML defense in the field. Wallner isn't it. Get him to DH in 2026. We need a true power threat in the lineup so he serves a purpose. A trade can be pursued or listened on too. 

No on trying to make a 1B out of him.

[DocBauer]

Nick, one objection in regard to your OP. I do believe Wallner's arm IS a defensive factor. He just doesn't get to show it off any longer because he's shown how much of a weapon it is nobody runs on him any longer. Therefore, it has been a factor in his game and remains so. 

I actually thought he was pretty solid in the OF before 2025, where he mostly played LF. He digressed quite a bit last season. Did his injury affect him in the OF? Was it taking over RF on a daily basis for the first time and he was almost re-learning the position? I do believe his future spot is DH and part time OF, but I personally believe he was OK previously.

As to Wallner as a hitter, I believe in the guy who made adjustments at every MILB level and produced and advanced with a .904 OPS. I believe in the hitter who had an OK rookie debut in 2022 with a league AVG .709 OPS. I believe in a hitter who was WELL ABOVE league average in 2023 and 2024 with a .877 and .894 OPS. 

It's true he spent some time in MILB in both '23 and '24 after some slumps. It happens. But he's always going to be a but of a streaky hitter. IMO, in both seasons, he was kept down longer than he should have been. And honestly, his 2024 slow start was in such a SSS, I'm still not certain he shouldn't have just been allowed to work through it at the ML level. Regardless, he has produced sp well, even with hot and cold streaks, the Twins should know who he is as a hitter. It's why I'm still of the opinion he was kept down too long each of those seasons.

Did he have a disappointing 2025? Yes. But was his OPS still above league average? Also yes. As pointed out very well, his K and BB numbers actually improved, but his BABIP cratered compared to his previous seasons. Sorry, but I'll take 2 years of HIGH OPS and a very good BABIP over 1 year of lower OPS and BABIP as a better indicator of potential of ability. 

Can he reclaim his previous BABIP numbers? Maybe. Or maybe it's more of a compromised number between previous seasons and league average. ALONE that makes him a .240 hitter with a solid OB% and a potential 30HR producer.

That's a really good hitter! 

While not exactly good, he's actually shown gradual improvement over the past 3 years when facing LHP. He's climbed from an OPS of .343, to .481, to .611 in 2025. Might there be room for additional improvement? Perhaps. And it's worth allowing for continuing improvement to take place. EVERY player is different. But the last thing the Twins need to do is to fall in to a self imposed trap where every LH hitter needs to be platooned. 

Wallner needs to probably make a couple adjustments next season, which isn't exactly a genius thought as most hitters need to make adjustments here and there. But I'm a Wallner believer based on his MILB career, and what he's done thus far in his ML career before a disappointing 2025 season. 

As far his future, as previously stated, I do think he's destined as the Twins primary DH and a part time corner OF. How soon that happens really depends on the young talent on hand. 

Rodriguez's option clock has been ticking for 2yrs now. Jenkins might be better served with a month or so at AAA for a good "runway" to hit MLB hot and just keep going. Same with Gonzalez. 

In an IDEAL situation, Martin would start 2026 the way he ended 2025 and play a lot of LF, HOPEFULLY with improvement in CF defensively so he could help a little there as needed. Roden will take what he learned in a SSS as a ROOKIE between 2 different organizations and start to translate his MILB success to the ML level. Rodriguez would have a good, strong, healthy Winter League and ST and the Twins would quit being so damn conservative with top prospects and give him an opening day job in RF. Wallner then slides in to his primary role at DH. Jenkins comes up a couple months in to the season as a 21yo. 

Rodriguez struggles some? You stick with him to let him adjust and grow. Think about the Brewers and a few other teams that have shown the willingness to let top prospects work it out. Still think he needs to go back down at some point? That's what his remaining option is for. But HIS clock is ticking. Jenkins and Gonzalez have clocks that either haven't started yet, or are just going to start.

Wallner just might START the season in RF, but it might not be for long. As much as I believe in Wallner turning it around, I still believe my IDEAL 2026 OF/DH construction isn't exactly fantasy.

[tony&rodney]

Why do I worry when I read all of these optimistic articles and comments about currently rostered players? Am I too worried the Twins will put the same roster back in the dugout for 2026? Will the 2024 and 2025 Twins become the 2026 Twins and win the AL Central as I am reading? I'm such a super optimistic person seeing so many opportunities for change and I read we should roll it back for another encore. Things could improve. The third time is a charm. Well, I'm hopeful, but wondering why I'm worried too.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, JADBP said:

It's not that hard...just keep coming up to the plate with no runners on and he will not run up the RBI score no matter how many HRs he hits (no one is going to hit 100 HRs).  That's most likely a result of 4 things:  1) other batters are not doing their job getting on base in front of Wallner, 2) bad coaching with an emphasis on HR's not getting on base, and 3) bad lineup construction and 4) Wallner swinging for the fences rather than taking an RBI-producing single.  Wallner has no ability to affect whether or not he comes up with runners on base.  

One more thing....yanking him every time a LH pitcher comes into the game is just plain idiotic!  I am hoping the new coach helps him learn to hit lefties instead of yanking him in the 4th inning!

You’re right, it’s not that hard…… HE SUCKS!

He hit .177 with RISP …….. no “coaching demons” in that. He has no ability to dial back to make contact. He strikes out 34% of his AB’s. His bat to ball skills are often non- existent.

His OBP of .311 is a combination of his 68 hits & 46 walks. One can’t strike out (114) the same amount of times one gets a hit or he walks. That has a little bit to do with his inability to drive in runs. 392 plate appearances and his walks plus strikeouts = 160 or 41% of the time he doesn’t put the ball in play……..that makes it difficult, when guys are on base, to produce runs. 392 plate appearances and he had 18 RBI other than driving himself in with a HR. Nearly statistically impossible to do!

[PatPfund]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I get that memories of these at-bats (getting beat with fastballs up in the zone) stick in people's minds, but what evidence is there that it actually derailed his game? If pitchers unlocked some new advantage wouldn't it lead to more strikeouts, fewer walks, more pop-ups, something? He stayed consistent or improved in basically all of these areas. 

Again, I hope you are right, but I'd answer the "something" is fewer HRs with somebody on. Lower RISP, lower batting average, lower BABIP. lower OPS, lower OPS+. Speaking of OPS+, it is just plain goofy to compare the "career" OPS+ of a part-time young player like Wallner to an actual star like Oliva who went through a whole career arc (including inevitable decline that depressed numbers). Comparing apples to apples, by the time Oliva finished his age 27 season (with 3 full MLB seasons), he'd played in 212 more games than Wallner, hit 22 more HR than Wallner, won ROY, went to 3 All Star games, and finished in the top 6 for MVP voting all three years. Wallner just finished his age 27 season, one in which he took 40% of all of the ABs of his MLB career, and...   ...well, we're all hoping for a rebound to the rates of his previous two almost-half-seasons. I remain skeptical, though I'd be thrilled to be wrong (which has been to known to happen at higher than league average).

[David Maro]

He could be on the trading block like many on this roster. If he remains on the roster take his mite away so he can work on hitting only. Just like Lee he has a big hole in his swing. Every pitcher knows fastballs in the upper zone will get him out. With Lee it's bounce a pitch in front of the plate. He should use a smaller leg kick and not think about hitting the ball 500 ft.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nick, do you think Wallner should try to play 1B? If not, why not?

[HrbieFan]

23 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'm not at all certain what Alan Roden will look like in the majors. I don't know how many of his skills will translate. But he is 25 (26 in December) and every year in the minors he's shown decent speed, minimal pop and really good strikeout and walk rates. I'm not saying at all that he will be a star, and if every one of the prospects works out then he should be a really good backup in any of the outfield spots. 

Just mostly saying that he has the makings of someone who could actually help potentially. 

Sounds like Martin to me 

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Sounds like Martin to me 

Agreed, and Martin actually looked pretty good the last two months right? I also think he has a place on the team next year, be it as starting in the outfield or as the Willi Castro super utility around the field. He has speed, makes contact and can hold his own at a few positions (outfield and 2b) so he'll be good to have around.

[Bodie]

23 hours ago, S Bart said:

Miguel Sano replica?

With about 10% of the talent?  Sure.

[Bodie]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

You’re right, it’s not that hard…… HE SUCKS!

He hit .177 with RISP …….. no “coaching demons” in that. He has no ability to dial back to make contact. He strikes out 34% of his AB’s. His bat to ball skills are often non- existent.

His OBP of .311 is a combination of his 68 hits & 46 walks. One can’t strike out (114) the same amount of times one gets a hit or he walks. That has a little bit to do with his inability to drive in runs. 392 plate appearances and his walks plus strikeouts = 160 or 41% of the time he doesn’t put the ball in play……..that makes it difficult, when guys are on base, to produce runs. 392 plate appearances and he had 18 RBI other than driving himself in with a HR. Nearly statistically impossible to do!

And that ignores his unplayable defense...

[Woof Bronzer]

20 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Great example of the disconnect between perception and reality with Wallner! We're treating him like he's been a disaster at the plate -- he has a 127 career OPS+. That would rank in the top 10 all time for this franchise. For reference: Allison 127, Hrbek 128, Oliva 131.

 I'll suggest that maybe evaluating a player is more complex than citing a single statistic of your choice and dropping the mic.   And I think it's an interesting choice to cite this statistic when Wallner has never played anything near a complete season, much less a long career like the other 3.  For reference:  Allison 5921 PA, Hrbek 7137 PA, Oliva 6879, Wallner 972.  Lol.  

Games With Sabermetrics are fun...

[Major League Ready]

23 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think there is a danger in this view.  Jenkins, E-Rod, Roden, and Gonzales have proven exactly nothing in the major leagues.  They might all succeed (wouldn’t that be nice), but they also might all fail to live up to the lofty expectations that people have for them.  At very least, they are going to go through the same kinds of growing pains that Wallner and Larnach (and Julien and Lee and Lewis) are currently going through.  Opening up TWO outfield spots and rolling the prospects out to start could very easily blow up in their faces.  It happens all the time because Major League Baseball is harder than minor league baseball, both offensively and defensively.  

Wallner had a pretty bad year by his previously established standards.  However, it only looks bad because he was so outstanding in limited action the past two years.  In fact, if Larnach would have had Wallner’s stats in 2025, we would be talking about the progress he had made.  I am more than willing to keep Wallner in the lineup and bank on a bounce back to previously offensive levels.  Defensively, he really should be the (mostly) full-time DH, still available to play OF when needed. We definitely need his power bat in the lineup, because someone not named Buxton has to be able to hit the ball out of the park too if this team is to be competitive.  Trading him for the sake of trading him is a little bit like trading Louis Varland for the sake of trading him that we did at the deadline.  

I agree completely if the goal is to get as many wins as possible next year.  Let's just say that projects to be 75 wins or even 80 if you want to be really optimistic.  If the goal is to build a team that can win 90 or more games, the focus needs to be finding players that can deliver that goal.  Wallner and Larnach are not players that will contribute much relatively speaking on a 90 win team.  How can we rebuilding over even retooling if we run the same players out there and is running the same players out there and hoping for a different outcome a good idea.  

I would find it more entertaining to watch a bunch of young guys that collectively could be a great team in a couple years than watch slow / average hitting corner OFers who can't play defense or run the bases.  I would be just fine with starting the year with Martin and Roden.  They get a couple months to prove themselves or get replaced by Jenkins / GG / Fedko / Rosario.  I don't understand the desire to continue with mediocrity when by definition it prohibits the possibility of improving.  I would be just fine with the risk  of losing a couple more games to have Jenkins and Martin in the corners by June 1.  Let the others compete for the 4th OFer spot.  The upside for several years is well worth the risk if the goal is to build a contender.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

18 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree completely if the goal is to get as many wins as possible next year.  Let's just say that projects to be 75 wins or even 80 if you want to be really optimistic.  If the goal is to build a team that can win 90 or more games, the focus needs to be finding players that can deliver that goal.  Wallner and Larnach are not players that will contribute much relatively speaking on a 90 win team.  How can we rebuilding over even retooling if we run the same players out there and is running the same players out there and hoping for a different outcome a good idea.  

I would find it more entertaining to watch a bunch of young guys that collectively could be a great team in a couple years than watch slow / average hitting corner OFers who can't play defense or run the bases.  I would be just fine with starting the year with Martin and Roden.  They get a couple months to prove themselves or get replaced by Jenkins / GG / Fedko / Rosario.  I don't understand the desire to continue with mediocrity when by definition it prohibits the possibility of improving.  I would be just fine with the risk  of losing a couple more games to have Jenkins and Martin in the corners by June 1.  Let the others compete for the 4th OFer spot.  The upside for several years is well worth the risk if the goal is to build a contender.

I completely understand the spirit of where you are coming from on this, I just happen to disagree about the best way to get to a 90+ win team.  I think it is easier to utilize the foundation of an 75-80 win team to form the next 90 win team.  That 75-80 win team is also much more fun to watch than the 60 win team that results from gutting what we currently have by trading Wallner, (Ryan, Pablo, Buxton, Jeffers, etc.).

IF we do gut the team and things go almost entirely right, we will probably have a team in 2028 that’s about as good as the one we had in 2024 and 2025.  That means we’re no better off than we are now AND we’ve had to suffer through two years of abysmal baseball.  If I want that, I’ll start going to more White Sox games.  I say, keep most of what we’ve got (i.e. Wallner, et al) and trade Larnach for some relief help, sign a couple of free agents (with the payroll space that should exist) and try to compete.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I completely understand the spirit of where you are coming from on this, I just happen to disagree about the best way to get to a 90+ win team.  I think it is easier to utilize the foundation of an 75-80 win team to form the next 90 win team.  That 75-80 win team is also much more fun to watch than the 60 win team that results from gutting what we currently have by trading Wallner, (Ryan, Pablo, Buxton, Jeffers, etc.).

IF we do gut the team and things go almost entirely right, we will probably have a team in 2028 that’s about as good as the one we had in 2024 and 2025.  That means we’re no better off than we are now AND we’ve had to suffer through two years of abysmal baseball.  If I want that, I’ll start going to more White Sox games.  I say, keep most of what we’ve got (i.e. Wallner, et al) and trade Larnach for some relief help, sign a couple of free agents (with the payroll space that should exist) and try to compete.  

We just see a different level of potential.  I believe Lewis, Lee, Wallner and others could definitely improve but I don’t see an 80-win team to build upon.  Not even close.  I see a team that won 70 games with the contributions of several players for two-thirds of the season who are no longer here.  I think if the national baseball reporters would project the team as is for roughly 65 wins.  It would take a lot of improvements to get to 80 wins.  They have exactly one well above average player in Buxton, an average catch (Jeffers) and Keaschall in his sophomore season.  The corner OF spots, 3B, 1B, and SS are well below average and we have very little in the BP.  I don’t see that as a foundation to build upon.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

We just see a different level of potential.  I believe Lewis, Lee, Wallner and others could definitely improve but I don’t see an 80-win team to build upon.  Not even close.  I see a team that won 70 games with the contributions of several players for two-thirds of the season who are no longer here.  I think if the national baseball reporters would project the team as is for roughly 65 wins.  It would take a lot of improvements to get to 80 wins.  They have exactly one well above average player in Buxton, an average catch (Jeffers) and Keaschall in his sophomore season.  The corner OF spots, 3B, 1B, and SS are well below average and we have very little in the BP.  I don’t see that as a foundation to build upon.

This

[Fred]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Agreed, and Martin actually looked pretty good the last two months right? I also think he has a place on the team next year, be it as starting in the outfield or as the Willi Castro super utility around the field. He has speed, makes contact and can hold his own at a few positions (outfield and 2b) so he'll be good to have around.

How many spots can they afford to have occupied by Punch and Judy hitting corner outfielders? I think one is enough. And it's not like either of those guys is going to remind anyone of the Guardian's Kwan. I'd much rather they give Fedko a shot. Fedko has some pop (28 HRs), and runs well (38 SBs) with an .854 OPS.

[Cory Engelhardt]

41 minutes ago, Fred said:

How many spots can they afford to have occupied by Punch and Judy hitting corner outfielders? I think one is enough. And it's not like either of those guys is going to remind anyone of the Guardian's Kwan. I'd much rather they give Fedko a shot. Fedko has some pop (28 HRs), and runs well (38 SBs) with an .854 OPS.

I think both of them have good k rates, some speed, and doubles power. They also can cover ground in the outfield.

I don't know about Fedko's defense in the outfield. His k rates are not crazy for AAA, but I can't say right now he would absolutely be an improvement over what both Martin and Roden already do.

[Cris E]

Wallner has the power that most of the rest of the roster is missing and it has to be kept until one of the prospects proves himself at the top level. We don't have a better DH candidate right now so he can hang out there, but if Buxton gets hurt or we need to rest Jeffers he'll need to play OF at times. He's not terrible so that's not the end of the world, it's just not his first position.  Maybe he plays 1B OK in the future, but I'd rather he worked on his OF skills this spring. 

Roden feels like the improved Martin from September (with a better OF glove) but Martin in no way feels like Castro. His IF defense just doesn't play aside from innings ending in "teenth".   Once Roden establishes himself I don;t know what happens to Austin.

Royce Lewis has to improve or go, as his flirty relationship with power has become tiresome. I'm glad he improved his throwing and range last winter, but this year it's time to get back in the cage and figure some stuff out. Health plays such huge a role in his story that maybe he needs to hang out with Byron B to get some insights into taking care of himself. 

As far as the rest of the roster, they need a future catcher and a real SS to push Lee, another bat from any source to put at first or DH or whateever, and a hundred bullpen arms. Some are in the minors already, but a lot rests on how ready the owners are to play in the big leagues. 

[JADBP]

On 10/27/2025 at 7:22 PM, JD-TWINS said:

You’re right, it’s not that hard…… HE SUCKS!

He hit .177 with RISP …….. no “coaching demons” in that. He has no ability to dial back to make contact. He strikes out 34% of his AB’s. His bat to ball skills are often non- existent.

His OBP of .311 is a combination of his 68 hits & 46 walks. One can’t strike out (114) the same amount of times one gets a hit or he walks. That has a little bit to do with his inability to drive in runs. 392 plate appearances and his walks plus strikeouts = 160 or 41% of the time he doesn’t put the ball in play……..that makes it difficult, when guys are on base, to produce runs. 392 plate appearances and he had 18 RBI other than driving himself in with a HR. Nearly statistically impossible to do!

I agree, the RISP stats SUCK!  
 

But is that because he foolishly tries to hit homers every AB or because he’s been groomed to be the big bat guy?  Has he been taught to get RISP home no matter how, or has he been coached to always go for the dinger?  I’ve seen this in so many Twins players —especially HR guys (Wallner, Royce, Miranda, Julien and even an early Buxton).  Seems like they have a team hitting philosophy (coached or imagined) to ALWAYS swing for the fences.  It’s easier in MiLB so these guys come up thinking they are gonna rack up homers (Royce). Then oppo pitchers find the holes in their swings and they are toast (Royce, Miranda, Julien etc). 
 

Theres a belief that hitting lots of homers brings huge contracts.  Sure that’s true if you are Aaron Judge.  But how many AK’s are there in MLB? 
 

I have to say I LOVE Vlad Jr’s play in the WS!!!!  Sure he’ll take an HR swing when it presents itself. But with RISP, he is getting a HIT!  And better yet, he is scooping all those errant throws at 1B.  He came off the bag to scoop a bad throw —knowing that a runner at 1st is a lot better than a runner at 2nd.  He’s one smart player!  Well trained, superbly coached..

 

BRW, notice how TO is piling up mid-game runs with small ball?  Keep the line moving.  Vlad comes up with guys on and gets a hit.  I am sure TO is afraid of the dinger but a hit is another precious run. You look up and they just scored 4 small ball  runs!  
 

and Vlad is out-Schoei-ing Ohtani!!!