Gabriel Gonzalez is a Great Hitter, but It Might not Matter

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, ziggy said:

Sorry, I should have said Oswado Arcia. But Oswaldo had better home run power.

I'm old enough to remember Munoz, and as a kid it seemed like he picked a bat that was way too big for him.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

Don't get fooled by Wichita stats...or St. Paul stats, and be very cognizant of age and K rate.

GG crushed it in Cedar Rapids this season. And for all that Wichita might be a hitter's paradise, the team average is a .777 and the league average for the Texas League is a .704 OPS, so GG is crushing both of those too. He's 3.1 years younger than the league average in AA too. His K-rate has been spectacular. Are we being fooled, or are people maybe looking too hard to find a reason to dismiss GG's performance on the field?

I mean, hitting .370 with more walks than K's in over 200 ABs for a player in their first taste of AA when they are quite young for the league...at some point maybe it's just that the kid can hit? Heck, he's even hitting into fewer DPs! :)

[Greglw3]

9 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

At least this year, Gonzalez appears to be the OF version of Luis Arraez.

 

10 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Worry about the HR rate when he's 24

I couldn’t find a place to start a comment so I piggy backed here. These thought are responsive only to the article. 

I find it impossible to look at mitigating factors or worry about a guy in any way, when he’s hitting .370 and maintains that .370 for a significant period of time. Doubles are a power factor too. That .370 average plus walks is at about the 99.8% spot on the statistical bell shaped curve.

I’m finding what he’s doing very exciting and see him as a guy that could possibly replace several of the mediocre to poor hitters on the Twins now, or soon and do better.

[jorgenswest]

Is he a sell high opportunity? Pair him with Coulombe or Bader or Castro and try to get a legit catching prospect. One of them and Gonzalez to the Phillies for Tait?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Is he a sell high opportunity? Pair him with Coulombe or Bader or Castro and try to get a legit catching prospect. One of them and Gonzalez to the Phillies for Tait?

They'd rather have Larnach I'd guess, as they are trying to win now and need a corner OF now. 

[jorgenswest]

55 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They'd rather have Larnach I'd guess, as they are trying to win now and need a corner OF now. 

Do you think they would prefer Bader over Larnach? In that case it would have to be Bader plus something. I am wondering if Gonzalez would pry away that catcher prospect.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Do you think they would prefer Bader over Larnach? In that case it would have to be Bader plus something. I am wondering if Gonzalez would pry away that catcher prospect.

They need offense more than anything else, and RP. Another starter.... As everyone does. I can't see GG for another minor league player if that was your question. Those trades are super rare. 

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

You are focusing on 2 opposite things. Oliva had enough raw defensive tools plus proven HR power, fine for RF.

Shane Mack & Lyman Bostock played a lot of CF & were very good hitters that qualified them w/o being HR hitters.

Gonzalez's glove at best is a RFer but doesn't hit HRs to profile there. Maybe he was adjusting to a new team so he was apprehensive in RF (which made him appear slow & lazy) maybe he can improve defensively to be a better RFer (not anything more) but I don't see him ever hitting enough HRs to qualify him for a MLB call-up there.

like Oliva, Wallner has a lot of raw defensive tools to play RF. How many years has he played professional ball & how much has he improved during those years? Oliva started proball in '61, it took him until '66 to obtain a GG. Wallner started in '19. I don't see the same raw defensive tools with Gonzalez.

There’s a big chasm between not being brought up because you can’t catch/judge a fly ball and becoming a Gold Glove OF, as was the case with Oliva. Oliva wasn’t able to be brought up because his defense was so poor.

My point is a guy that Slugs at .522 will get playing time, regardless of how many HRs they hit…….my assumption/hope is for .425 Slug in the Show.

Pretty sure you haven’t seen Gonzalez play defense & it takes a big imagination to think Matt Wallner is anywhere near a good RF. He has OK instincts and a very good arm …….. he struggles getting a jump too often though and he throws to wrong base &/or misses cut-off because he wants to just show off his arm. He has some upside, for sure. I don’t know that there has been much progression as a RF from Wallner over his 6 professional seasons & parts of 3 seasons in college.  Wallner is 6 years older than Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is awfully young to be writing him off as a guy without enough power to play in the Show……..particularly with the .522 Slug% at AA.

[Guest]

"Great hitter."  Which element has underperformed the most?  Hitting.  I'd stop with "great hitter" and think of ways to play that into a better-hitting team.

[Doctor Gast]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t know that there has been much progression as a RF from Wallner over his 6 professional seasons & parts of 3 seasons in college.  Wallner is 6 years older than Gonzalez.

Gonzalez is awfully young to be writing him off as a guy without enough power to play in the Show……..particularly with the .522 Slug% at AA.

This is my point that you didn't pick up. If the Twins haven't been able to develop Wallner sufficiently, who has all the raw defensive talent to become a very good RFer. How can Gonzalez, who doesn't have that raw talent, be developed into a good RFer?

When Falvey obtained Gonzalez, I checked him out through an evaluator I trusted & watched defensive clips, I could get my hands on. I like Gonzalez as a hitter. My problem is with the evaluation that is propagated & the ranking that is given to him. I stated that Gonzalez shouldn't make the Twins because of his bat doesn't fit his defensive abilities. But that said, that doesn't mean that Falvey won't force him through over players who are better than him. To the detriment of the Twins. 

[Doctor Wu]

22 hours ago, ziggy said:

Pedro Munoz anyone???

Whoa ... there's a name from the past!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Perhaps someday we will have 'won' the Polanco trade.. and Justin Topa will have been long forgotten.

We have already won the Polanco trade.  He was a negative WAR last year.  He then resigned with Seattle.  

[jorgenswest]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They need offense more than anything else, and RP. Another starter.... As everyone does. I can't see GG for another minor league player if that was your question. Those trades are super rare. 

I don’t think Bader is enough to get the catcher so wondering if adding Gonzalez to Bader would be enough. This kind of deal is not unusual. It might be uncommon at the deadline but there likely is a deal like this every year. Last year the Dodgers got a prospect added with Edman. Two years ago the Rays got a prospect with Sampson. The Padres got the Marlins #21 prospect with Garrett Cooper in that deal. Sometimes a team is insisting on a prospect in return and the other team relents by taking back a lesser prospect in the deal.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think Bader is enough to get the catcher so wondering if adding Gonzalez to Bader would be enough. This kind of deal is not unusual. It might be uncommon at the deadline but there likely is a deal like this every year. Last year the Dodgers got a prospect added with Edman. Two years ago the Rays got a prospect with Sampson. The Padres got the Marlins #21 prospect with Garrett Cooper in that deal. Sometimes a team is insisting on a prospect in return and the other team relents by taking back a lesser prospect in the deal.

I thought you were suggest prospect for prospect....

[BillyBallLives]

On 7/22/2025 at 3:41 PM, cheeseheadgophfan said:

.e

On 7/22/2025 at 3:41 PM, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Insane take......every team in MLB would take GG for Polanco straight up right now and this is the best Polanco has played since the trade.  

 

Not insane, but I think you may be on the Kool-Aid. "every team"  is a complete stretch. 

Polanco was a proven switch-hitter with positional versatility and clubhouse leadership. The Twins gave him up for an injured reliever, a pitcher who’s already off the roster, and a couple of prospects who might pan out.

Gonzales has been solid lately—credit where it’s due—but saying every team would take him over Polanco “straight up” total exaggeration. 

What did we get?
 

Anthony DeSclafani: Never threw a pitch. Out for the season. Gone.

Justin Topa: Injured. Again. Able to pitch in 2025 after being out most of 2024. FA now. 

Gabriel Gonzalez: Still in Double-A. Solid tools, but hitting around .250 with questions about plate discipline.

Dylan Moore? Utility guy, replacement level.

 

[Danchat]

12 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

Gabriel Gonzalez: Still in Double-A. Solid tools, but hitting around .250 with questions about plate discipline.

Dylan Moore? Utility guy, replacement level.

Gonzalez is "still" in AA raking with 220 PAs under his belt... pretty good for a 21 year old. And those are his first PAs there, this isn't like Austin Martin floundering there at age 23 or Sabato needing 930 PAs there to move on.

The other prospect is Darren Bowen, who's currently a starter at AA and not doing particularly well. His only path to the majors is going to be as a reliever and he was just a throw-in for the trade.

[Rosterman]

A call up in 2027. Maybe a regular in 2028?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

A call up in 2027. Maybe a regular in 2028?

Why wait that long? He's dominated two levels. Other teams promote guys like this. Get him up this year, so he's ready next year. 

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, Rosterman said:

A call up in 2027. Maybe a regular in 2028?

I think there are a few variables outside of his performance that will determine when he gets a shot.  Rodriguez is already at AAA.  He is a very good defender, can back-up center field, and hits both LH and RH pitching.  If Rodriguez performs, he is getting a shot ahead of GG.  Jenkins is also a more complete player.  He will probably start 2026 in AAA.  If Jenkins crushes AAA pitching, he could be in the big leagues before GG.  Of course, there is also the possibility they pick-up a major league ready OFer in deadline trades.  I think the emphasis will be in other areas, but you never know.

Of course, there are areas within his own performance that could expedite his ascension to the big leagues.  He could improve physically in the off-season.  A little more speed and strength would help defensively and could also produce more HRs.  That would change his ceiling.  Like Jenkins, GG most likely is in AAA to start 2026.  A slightly faster / better fielding GG showing a little more power in 2026 could be in the big leagues by the all-star break.

[chpettit19]

14 hours ago, Rosterman said:

A call up in 2027. Maybe a regular in 2028?

If that's his timeline, this entire conversation is moot because he's not worth talking about. Guys who take 2 years to get from AA to the majors and another year to become a regular aren't actually regulars. Even those of us saying "let's not get too carried away here" aren't talking about a 2027 call up, we're talking cup of coffee this year with real time next year. If he doesn't get a cup of coffee this year it's not crazy, but if he isn't getting real playing time in the majors next year he's taken a step back and he's getting passed up by others. Or should be if they're developing any talent at all.