Twins Slugger Matt Wallner Fighting Through First Real Slump

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He played 6 games in AAA, with a .320/.370/.960/1.330 with 5 homers and a double and only 5 K's in 27 plate appearances. Not really sure how much more was needed to regain timing and confidence in AAA? 

 

The statement that Wallner is/was/has been one of the better hitters in the game is ludicrous and a slap in the face to whole bunch of players that are actually the better hitters in the game. He has been pretty good in a limited role for half a season the two years prior against right handed pitchers. 

Lets not forgot he ended 24 with a .243/.333/.405/.739 month of September. (Not terrible but not great either. July was amazing in limited playing time and August was great. 

His career oWAR is 4.6, 2 players have that or more just this year, 27 had that or more last year and 23 had that in 2023. I like him and hope like heck he can become a really solid major league starter. 

My point wasn't that he was terrible in AAA. It was more than he could use more time to be more cemented in the process & having even more momentum going into MLB.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

My point wasn't that he was terrible in AAA. It was more than he could use more time to be more cemented in the process & having even more momentum going into MLB.

Like Nick said he came up and hit 4 homers in 8 games, not sure that more time in AAA was needed. Something happened after that 4th homer (the second blowout in 5 games) that changed. 

[twinstalker]

He looks off-balance.  When he hits a HR, it's barely reaching the fences, it's all arms.  They should be sailing out of the park with his power.

[Danchat]

Wallner's numbers are eerily close to Joey Gallo's, especially when it comes to lack of RBIs. I do think just looking at OPS/OPS+ can be misleading when it comes to power hitters. Brooks Lee has a similar OBP and batting average about .070 higher but a lower OPS due to power, but his RBI rate is quite a bit better. Say what you will about singles-only hitters, singles move baserunners better than walks do and create more runs over the long stretch.

I do think the strikeout rate staying stable and the BABIP being oddly low are signs that if they keep giving him PAs in the majors that he will rebound. Defensively, I'm less sure about him. I do wish they would have decided to move one of these bigger OFs like him or Larnach to 1B and solved that issue instead of making France a starter in 99% of their games.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

The numbers speak for themselves, I'm not really editorializing. Wallner is off to one of the best offensive starts to a career in franchise history and "torrid" is a perfectly apt way to describe it

Compared to who? I mean Lew Ford  after 188 games had a WAR of 6.7, and after three years his oWar(s) .9, 3.3, 1.6 and had played 335 games. There are quite a few Twins with higher WAR or oWAR entering their 4th year. Cordova had 40 homers and 5.9 WAR (5.1 oWAR) after two years. 

[Major League Ready]

They could bring up Martin or play Keaschall in the OF when he gets back.  That would allow them to give Wallner another reset at AAA.  Keaschall, Clemens, and Martin collectively can cover several positions.  

[Wedman13]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

This is the weird issue with Twins fans and Wallner. People just don't want to acknowledge what's right in front of them.

The numbers speak for themselves, I'm not really editorializing. Wallner is off to one of the best offensive starts to a career in franchise history and "torrid" is a perfectly apt way to describe it. His wOBA since debuting is among the top 10 MLB hitters (at least was before this downswing). He really hasn't had any "awful streaks" before this one, which is the core point of the article.

Why are we so committed to underrating one of our own??

If at age 27, a career .238 avg and 37 home runs puts him in the top 10 of this franchise... I'm not sure if it speaks more about him, or the history of the Twins.  
 

id be interested to know who the top 9 were.

[Wedman13]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

This is the weird issue with Twins fans and Wallner. People just don't want to acknowledge what's right in front of them.

The numbers speak for themselves, I'm not really editorializing. Wallner is off to one of the best offensive starts to a career in franchise history and "torrid" is a perfectly apt way to describe it. His wOBA since debuting is among the top 10 MLB hitters (at least was before this downswing). He really hasn't had any "awful streaks" before this one, which is the core point of the article.

Why are we so committed to underrating one of our own??

If at age 27, a career .238 avg and 37 home runs puts him in the top 10 of this franchise... I'm not sure if it speaks more about him, or the history of the Twins.  
 

id be interested to know who the top 9 were.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

He looks off-balance.  When he hits a HR, it's barely reaching the fences, it's all arms.  They should be sailing out of the park with his power.

While I agree he looks off-balance, he's still hitting absolute bombs. The HR he hit in Miami was 430 ft. That didn't "barely reach the fence." The one he hit off Pop to the bullpens at Target Field was 420 feet the other way. Those are his last 2 HRs. Those are absolute bombs. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

Wallner's numbers are eerily close to Joey Gallo's, especially when it comes to lack of RBIs. I do think just looking at OPS/OPS+ can be misleading when it comes to power hitters. Brooks Lee has a similar OBP and batting average about .070 higher but a lower OPS due to power, but his RBI rate is quite a bit better. Say what you will about singles-only hitters, they move baserunners much better than walks do and create more runs over the long stretch.

I do think the strikeout rate staying stable and the BABIP being oddly low are signs that if they keep giving him PAs in the majors that he will rebound. Defensively, I'm less sure about him. I do wish they would have decided to move one of these bigger OFs like him or Larnach to 1B and solved that issue instead of making France a starter in 99% of their games.

Idk if I'll ever get over the "Joey Gallo is a league average hitter," argument towards the end of the 2023 season....

[Wedman13]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Lol it is a factual statement backed up by statistics. The only hitters who've been more productive in a larger sample since he debuted is a lineup of superstars and MVPs. Go see for yourself.

In any walk of life (business, sports, politics) stats can tell us what our bias want us to believe.  If you truly watch Matt Wallner - and he is in his prime - and believe he should be Bucketed with superstars and mvp's, we simply could not disagree more.

 

[S Bart]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

This is the weird issue with Twins fans and Wallner. People just don't want to acknowledge what's right in front of them.

The numbers speak for themselves, I'm not really editorializing. Wallner is off to one of the best offensive starts to a career in franchise history and "torrid" is a perfectly apt way to describe it. His wOBA since debuting is among the top 10 MLB hitters (at least was before this downswing). He really hasn't had any "awful streaks" before this one, which is the core point of the article.

Why are we so committed to underrating one of our own??

He is batting around 200....so??? I really hope he does well and improves..but best starts???

[Blyleven2011]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO, there was no rush to bring him up, the Twins were winning w/o him. I agree they should have left him in AAA and let him regain his timing and confidence. 

Wallner I'm afraid is going to end up like Miranda  , Julien   ...

Our coaching is lacking at the mlb level  ...

If wallner wants to further his career he better get some advise outside the organization  , like driveline this off season  , he may be packaged in a deal at deadline  , I'm sorry everyone but Joey Gallo in his one year with the twins had more value than wallner does right now   ...

I hated saying that but wallner right now is bad on both sides of the ball ...

[John Mickelson]

9 hours ago, DaveW44 said:

I’d stop short of calling the start of Wallner’s career “torrid.” I’d also stop short of saying he had established himself as in of the very best hitters in baseball. 
he’s had some good streaks and he’s had some awful streaks. He’s a work in progress and the remainder of this season might show us what to expect from Wallner in the future, and if he be counted on to be a regular contributor in the lineup going forward. 

 

[John Mickelson]

Wallner is looking more like Joey Gallo everyday. St Paul is where he should be. He appears way ahead on every pitch locking himself up. Looks like inside fastballs are his only plus.

 

[Doc Lenz]

He’s not fighting through this slump he’s swinging through it or taking waist high fastballs over the middle of the plate for strike 3. Needs to watch Mauer videos and emulate. We know this staff has no clue how to help him.

[Blyleven2011]

Nick your losing the battle ....

The entire offense is either awful , streaky or unproductive  ...

Wallner is definitely fighting the at bats , wallner does swing harder than anyone I have seen , but he doesn't connect often enough , when he does it's usually hit hard ... 

Past stats or current stats he hasn't been all that productive , homeruns and rbi's go together and he really hasn't accomplished anything there in 3 seasons , if he is one of the best players he should be a big producer with the bat if the manager would put him in a position to succeed with hitters getting on in front of him ...

If he is a slugger let him swing away , but first he needs base runners in front of him otherwise i see no value in him at the moment ...

I think it's about time someone finds the scoop on our coaches at the mlb level , are they professionals like falvey said he hired , or are they incapable of taking talent from AAA and at the show continue to make that talent even better with better instructions ( everyone needs proper instructions at any level to succeed ) ...

Someone mentioned this earlier  , why are our prospects failing at the mlb level and if you have stats to prove differently I'd like to see them  ...

Nick your a good writer , you just struck a nerve in us readers today , yes we would like wallner to succeed because he is one of us ...

 

[RpR]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Like Nick said he came up and hit 4 homers in 8 games, not sure that more time in AAA was needed. Something happened after that 4th homer (the second blowout in 5 games) that changed. 

Pitchers figured him out and he does not know what to do.

AAA pitching, with few exceptions is no where near Major League.

[RpR]

5 hours ago, Danchat said:

Wallner's numbers are eerily close to Joey Gallo's, especially when it comes to lack of RBIs. I do think just looking at OPS/OPS+ can be misleading when it comes to power hitters. Brooks Lee has a similar OBP and batting average about .070 higher but a lower OPS due to power, but his RBI rate is quite a bit better. Say what you will about singles-only hitters, singles move baserunners better than walks do and create more runs over the long stretch.

I do think the strikeout rate staying stable and the BABIP being oddly low are signs that if they keep giving him PAs in the majors that he will rebound. Defensively, I'm less sure about him. I do wish they would have decided to move one of these bigger OFs like him or Larnach to 1B and solved that issue instead of making France a starter in 99% of their games.

Some plays at 1st base need a person who is quick, very quick to respond; that is NOT Wallner or Larnach.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Wallner I'm afraid is going to end up like Miranda  , Julien   ...

Our coaching is lacking at the mlb level  ...

If wallner wants to further his career he better get some advise outside the organization  , like driveline this off season  , he may be packaged in a deal at deadline  , I'm sorry everyone but Joey Gallo in his one year with the twins had more value than wallner does right now   ...

I hated saying that but wallner right now is bad on both sides of the ball ...

Or simply short of talent to be full time in the Bigs.

[purplesoldier4u]

With all due respect, Nick, what the heck are you talking about?

[FlyingFinn]

7 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Just a reminder that he homered 4 times in his first 8 games off the injured list.

Also a reminder that these are mostly not Clemens-type clutch HR's. 1 of them was in a 13-4 win when the game was decided and another was in a 16-4 loss when it was decided already.  However you want to chop up Wallner's May/June #'s after he returned, they aren't good batting about .160 with slugging about .400. By now we are well beyond slow start. He needs to figure it out. This coming from a Wallner fan.

[DocBauer]

To this point, Wallner has a career OPS of .833. And that includes a somewhat SSS from his debut that was considerably lower, and his current OPS after a really bad month of June. His OPS for 2023-2024 was .885.

If you believe Nick's assertion about how great Wallner has been based on his career OPS so far as hyperbole for a player who hasn't been around for 5-6 years, I think you have an arguement.

 But if you look at a Twins player producing at a .833 OPS level to begin his career, yes, he's made a great debut and would rank amongst the top in Twins history. Now, he needs to get RIGHT again and get his timing back. But to ignore those numbers, even in a somewhat brief career, and just dismiss him as one of the best debuts and performance in history would be incorrect.

If he gets back to performing as he did for 2023-24, and a solid start to this season before his injury, and hits the .800 mark when this season is done, what say you then? His continuation of power and production and an .800 OPS can indeed make him one of the top Twins hitters. His career is far from done simply because he's struggling at the moment.

IMPO, there's a lot of angst about the disappointment in the team's season, and frustration is making anyone struggling currently an easy target to aim that frustration.

I for one am a fan and believer and can't wait for him to get going again. 

 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

To this point, Wallner has a career OPS of .833. And that includes a somewhat SSS from his debut that was considerably lower, and his current OPS after a really bad month of June. His OPS for 2023-2024 was .885.

If you believe Nick's assertion about how great Wallner has been based on his career OPS so far as hyperbole for a player who hasn't been around for 5-6 years, I think you have an arguement.

 But if you look at a Twins player producing at a .833 OPS level to begin his career, yes, he's made a great debut and would rank amongst the top in Twins history. Now, he needs to get RIGHT again and get his timing back. But to ignore those numbers, even in a somewhat brief career, and just dismiss him as one of the best debuts and performance in history would be incorrect.

If he gets back to performing as he did for 2023-24, and a solid start to this season before his injury, and hits the .800 mark when this season is done, what say you then? His continuation of power and production and an .800 OPS can indeed make him one of the top Twins hitters. His career is far from done simply because he's struggling at the moment.

IMPO, there's a lot of angst about the disappointment in the team's season, and frustration is making anyone struggling currently an easy target to aim that frustration.

I for one am a fan and believer and can't wait for him to get going again. 

 

Well Joey Gallo's OPS from age 24 to 27 was .820, how did that turn out.

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, John Mickelson said:

Wallner is looking more like Joey Gallo everyday. St Paul is where he should be. He appears way ahead on every pitch locking himself up. Looks like inside fastballs are his only plus.

 

By age 27 season Gallo had 157 HR's, a gold glove and all star game appearance.  Wallner, at same age, has 37 HR's and is a below avg defender.  Accepting poor performance because he's 'one of us' is why we're at where we're at.

[Bodie]

19 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Lol it is a factual statement backed up by statistics. The only hitters who've been more productive in a larger sample since he debuted is a lineup of superstars and MVPs. Go see for yourself.

I can trust my lying eyes, or go with the stats that proved that Joey Gallo  was a slightly above average player for the Twins...

[Road trip]

Recency bias is a terribly strong thing.  Wallner has had a long string of poor games, no doubt.

His career as a whole thus far has been quite good, as Nick correctly noted.

For those complaining about lack of RBI's, consider the following stats for his career:

RISP - BA .264, OBP .382, SLG .536 - That's exceptional in this era.

ANY runners on base - BA .271, OBP .375, SLG .527 - also exceptional.

Wallner doesn't lack RBIs because he "only hits empty solo home runs".  He doesn't rack up RBIs because the Twins have a lousy team OBP.  In his entire career, he only has 304 plate appearances with runners on base.  He knocked in 80 in those 304 PAs.  Not too bad...

I don't know where Wallner will go from here, but to give up on him because of a bad three week stretch seems foolish.  However I am quite confident that recency bias will rear its head again, and by August we will be complaining about some other player who has hit a rough patch.

 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Road trip said:

Recency bias is a terribly strong thing.  Wallner has had a long string of poor games, no doubt.

His career as a whole thus far has been quite good, as Nick correctly noted.

For those complaining about lack of RBI's, consider the following stats for his career:

RISP - BA .264, OBP .382, SLG .536 - That's exceptional in this era.

ANY runners on base - BA .271, OBP .375, SLG .527 - also exceptional.

Wallner doesn't lack RBIs because he "only hits empty solo home runs".  He doesn't rack up RBIs because the Twins have a lousy team OBP.  In his entire career, he only has 304 plate appearances with runners on base.  He knocked in 80 in those 304 PAs.  Not too bad...

I don't know where Wallner will go from here, but to give up on him because of a bad three week stretch seems foolish.  However I am quite confident that recency bias will rear its head again, and by August we will be complaining about some other player who has hit a rough patch.

 

Wishful thinking runs rampant on TD for players some on TD like; Negative dissing runs rampant for players some on TD dislike.

Reality has zip to do with such opinions; it is a - my boy can do not wrong - mindset against - you do not belong here - mindset.

[Road trip]

17 minutes ago, RpR said:

Wishful thinking runs rampant on TD for players some on TD like; Negative dissing runs rampant for players some on TD dislike.

Reality has zip to do with such opinions; it is a - my boy can do not wrong - mindset against - you do not belong here - mindset.

Indeed, Manuel Margot says "hi".

 

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, Road trip said:

Recency bias is a terribly strong thing.  Wallner has had a long string of poor games, no doubt.

His career as a whole thus far has been quite good, as Nick correctly noted.

For those complaining about lack of RBI's, consider the following stats for his career:

RISP - BA .264, OBP .382, SLG .536 - That's exceptional in this era.

ANY runners on base - BA .271, OBP .375, SLG .527 - also exceptional.

Wallner doesn't lack RBIs because he "only hits empty solo home runs".  He doesn't rack up RBIs because the Twins have a lousy team OBP.  In his entire career, he only has 304 plate appearances with runners on base.  He knocked in 80 in those 304 PAs.  Not too bad...

I don't know where Wallner will go from here, but to give up on him because of a bad three week stretch seems foolish.  However I am quite confident that recency bias will rear its head again, and by August we will be complaining about some other player who has hit a rough patch.

 

One stat you left off is since he was called up on 9/17/2022, The Twins have played 443 games and he has appeared in 219 and started in 189 (which is 42.6% of the games). Which statistically shows he is a part time player, which doesn't mean he is bad or is going to be bad, it means IMO he hasn't done enough to say he is one of the best hitters in the league or even started off his career as one of the best Twins ever. Also IMO he has been pretty darn good in a limited role.

I am not one complaining about RBI but since he has 764 total plate appearances and you said 304 PA with runners on (39.7 %), I think coming to bat 40% of the time with runners in scoring position seems like a fairly high percentage. (But I don't know what the average player's percentage is)

For comparison. 

Royce Lewis has appeared in 188 games (started 175) since 2022, and has 35 homers and 115 RBI and an OPS of .783. So again IMO Wallner has been slightly better than Lewis, and I don't anybody is saying Lewis is one of the better hitters in the league or started off his career as one of the best Twins ever? or maybe they have?