Could Minnesota Twins Jump Trade Market By Selling High on Chris Paddack?

[Road trip]

Recency bias is a terribly powerful thing.

Five months ago many were hoping to shed Paddack's salary for a semi-prospect, or a backup outfielder, or a bag of baseballs..

Two months ago many were hoping Paddack would perform well enough to be dealt to a desperate contender at the trade deadline.

Five weeks ago we just hoped Paddack would be able to go longer than 4 innings in a competent start... because his April really wasn't all that encouraging.  His ERA at the end of April was 5.60, and he never threw more than 5 innings.

Recently... well he's had a great run in May.  Longer starts, few runs allowed, and at times he's looked dominant.  I didn't expect this.  I don't think anyone did.  It's been great.  I hope it continues.  But I don't expect it will...  

If some semi-desperate exec who needs a starter thinks this is a new Chris Paddack and makes a great offer... well, we best take it.  Chris Paddack has a long track record and a significant injury history.  He may continue his great run, but I suspect before the end of the year he will revert to being the same Chris Paddack he has been for the past half dozen years, which means a mediocre starter, and quite possibly injured.  

But I'll certainly be rooting for him...  I just won't mind if he's traded for fair or better value.

 

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I wondered about adding Del Castillo in my reply but worried about his shoulder injury. Last year runners were already successful on 27 of 29 stolen base attempts before the injury. Do you think he will stick at catcher?

I know you really pay attention to catchers . What do you think of Miguel Amaya from the Cubs? Unfortunately he is out with an oblique injury right now.

Great take. IMO, Del Castillo has the arm but needs to work on his technique. He's working hard on that & maybe it has something to do with his strained shoulder. He's on his way back, IMO, he'll stick & prosper.

Amaya has more pop but IMO, is worse behind the plate. I have to admit, I don't know him as well

[jkcarew]

It’s not a bad idea given what’s behind him.

But it’s the exact type of bold move I don’t think this admin has in them. Paddock has become too important to their perennial plan of “making the playoffs” without regard to having any real chance of making a run.

[HerbieFan]

You're competing for a playoff spot....not sure why you'd trade someone pitching as well as he is.  I say ride it out.

[h2oface]

Finally getting the value out of Paddack, what the team always hoped for..... SO TRADE HIM?!!!!!!

Yup. Fans are so loyal these days. The pitching pipeline, eh? You will want to trade the first one that is successful. Bring on more strangers. I don't really care one way or another, because there is not time to care with how the business works anymore. Not worth thinking about what Formula Falvey will do anymore.

I don't trade players who are performing the best with a chance at the post season run. Neither did Atlanta, when they kept Freddie and won the World Series with him in 2021. Value. Like Pressly for the next Pressly, Alcala. 7 years of seasoning and the value is coming any day now. And Celestino thrown in was a real coup.

[h2oface]

4 hours ago, jkcarew said:

It’s not a bad idea given what’s behind him.

But it’s the exact type of bold move I don’t think this admin has in them. Paddock has become too important to their perennial plan of “making the playoffs” without regard to having any real chance of making a run.

Neither did Atlanta in 2021...... and they could have gotten all that value for Freeman when they were under .500 (51-54) on the July 30 trade deadline.

The Dodgers have had a ton of seasoned and real good pitching the last two years, and then hardly have any that can pitch in the playoffs. There is always a chance, and pitching will be so very important.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Neither did Atlanta in 2021...... and they could have gotten all that value for Freeman when they were under .500 (51-54) on the July 30 trade deadline.

The Dodgers have had a ton of seasoned and real good pitching the last two years, and then hardly have any that can pitch in the playoffs. There is always a chance, and pitching will be so very important.

I think it is a much safer bet that Freddie Freeman is healthy and effective at the end of the season than Chris Paddack. Freeman is going to be inducted into the Hall of Fame some day. Paddack might visit, but he'll have to buy a ticket.

[DocBauer]

Teams were interested in Paddack in the offseason because they saw upside and a cheap contract. The Twins saw the same and declined because they saw the same thing and weren't offered enough, in their opinion, to move him. 

Now he's pitching very well, even if some of his underlying numbers aren't tremendous. The pitching is carrying the team, though the offense is FINALLY getting healthy again and there's some hope for improvement. A healthy Keaschall in July might bump the offense up a notch. Royce finally re-discovering himself makes a TREMENDOUS difference in the offense the 2nd half as well.

I have a lot of belief in both Festa and Matthews. I think they're better arms than SWR, and I still like SWR who's still only 24yo. But all 3 young arms are still growing and adapting and learning. I don't think the Twins go swirling down the toilet by moving a solid, productive SP with one of their talented youngsters. But isn't it nice to know you don't HAVE to hand them a job TODAY by trading Paddack while in the playoff hunt? Isn't it nice to know you have the ability to throw them out there and rotate through them if and when necessary and even have them for a possible post season pen spot? (And you're going to need them in 2026).

But more than anything else, tell me what playoff contending team, especially in today's format, have a quality spare OF/1B who can lift up the offense by trading said player to the Twins for Paddack to fill up their rotation while they potentially hamper their offense?

I'll wait.

 

[h2oface]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think it is a much safer bet that Freddie Freeman is healthy and effective at the end of the season than Chris Paddack. Freeman is going to be inducted into the Hall of Fame some day. Paddack might visit, but he'll have to buy a ticket.

Dismissive, I get it. It just means that you would pass up way more value in return. Stephen Curry was expected to be healthy, too. Timberwolves so very lucky he wasn't. Never had an injury like it in his whole career, yet there it was. It can happen to anyone at anytime. For sure. Hope and dreams is a way to go. A common, in-the-box way to go. Lots of tickets needed for the hope and dreams group to see the HOF, and help in any playoffs anytime soon, if ever. 

[Dman]

Clearly the return would have to be decent for a trade to make sense, but I think the Twins should listen.  They look like they might cling to wild card spot or might not.  With the poor hitting I don't really see them as contenders.  Sure anything can happen. You can beat 1 in 100 odds at some point, but it feels like a fair amount of missing pieces for a WS run.

I am not a believer his arm will hold up in the second half and he won't be on the team next year so getting some assets seems wise to me.  Same would go for Willie and anyone else on a one year deal that they don't plan to resign  I'd trade my chips in to try and get stronger next year if it were me as I haven't been a big believer in this team as a WS contender as currently constructed.  

I know that is an incredibly pessimistic attitude to have, but if they can strike good deals I'd take that chance and since they have Festa and Zebby and SWR I think they can fill in OK if they could get something meaningful for Paddack.

As some have noted I am not sure what that might do to the club house.  I think it could have a negative affect hard to say.  Trading with this team in wild card contention is a tough call, but for the right deal it could make sense.

[twinfan]

If the Twins have no desire to extend him beyond this season, then shop him now and see what is available. Maybe a team would be willing to trade a quality player in a sign and trade deal. It's somewhat doubtful but he is at his peak value right now. Too bad we can't get some runs for him but, when we finally do, he will probably give them back. Even if we get a valuable minor leaguer, it would be better than just losing him.

[twinstalker]

SWR has considerable upside?

[Patzky]

10 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

You're competing for a playoff spot....not sure why you'd trade someone pitching as well as he is.  I say ride it out.

What a difference 24 hours makes, eh. YES WE NEED THE SHERIFF TO STAY IN TOWN.

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, twinstalker said:

SWR has considerable upside?

Had a rough Tuesday night. 

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Jonah Bride is on the roster doing mostly nothing. There's room for another bat.

Are you suggesting they trade for a guy to replace Bride?  I am pretty sure the original post was asking which starter would you replace?  Where would the greatest incremental gain be?  Obviously, there is a possibility to improve over most of our starters, even Correa.   Replacing Bride would be pretty meaningless.

[Vanimal46]

12 hours ago, h2oface said:

Like Pressly for the next Pressly, Alcala. 7 years of seasoning and the value is coming any day now. And Celestino thrown in was a real coup.

You like Duran on our team? He’s not a stranger today. Escobar was performing pretty well on an expiring contract. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you suggesting they trade for a guy to replace Bride?  I am pretty sure the original post was asking which starter would you replace?  Where would the greatest incremental gain be?  Obviously, there is a possibility to improve over most of our starters, even Correa.   Replacing Bride would be pretty meaningless.

They can replace Bride with a bat who complements one of the other starters or even just a pure DH/PH bat. Lee and Castro offer positional flexibility. Bride is redundant, not complementary depth.

[Major League Ready]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They can replace Bride with a bat who complements one of the other starters or even just a pure DH/PH bat. Lee and Castro offer positional flexibility. Bride is redundant, not complementary depth.

OK but the question was who do you replace.  You are not replacing Bride if you acquire a DH.  Last night the DH was Larnach.  The most likely DHs are Wallner, Larnach, Buxton, and Jeffers.   The gain would be minimal, and the cost would be defensive depth and flexibility.   I presume T.O posed this question to prompt a more nuanced discussion that addressed specifics instead of a concept.

[h2oface]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

You like Duran on our team? He’s not a stranger today. Escobar was performing pretty well on an expiring contract. 

Even a broken clock is right for 2 minutes of the 1440 each day 😇

And just like that, Lopez is out indefinitely. Good Pitching. Never too much depth. Always not enough. 
 

Jorge Lopez is available again…..🥂
 
 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

OK but the question was who do you replace.  You are not replacing Bride if you acquire a DH.  Last night the DH was Larnach.  The most likely DHs are Wallner, Larnach, Buxton, and Jeffers.   The gain would be minimal, and the cost would be defensive depth and flexibility.   I presume T.O posed this question to prompt a more nuanced discussion that addressed specifics instead of a concept.

There is another article just posted, but mostly Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis at-bats. Probably Kody Clemens also as he comes back to reality. It would be great if they didn't use Jeffers at DH at all.

[mickster]

On 6/3/2025 at 12:32 PM, DJL44 said:

Rumors are starting about the Red Sox selling Alex Bregman. That's exactly what the Twins need.

And what would you be willing to give up for a rental like him?

 

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, mickster said:

And what would you be willing to give up for a rental like him?

He's making more money than the Twins have in their budget. If the Red Sox are willing to eat the remaining salary, I'd give up quite a bit. I suspect another team would still out-bid the Twins.

[mickster]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's making more money than the Twins have in their budget. If the Red Sox are willing to eat the remaining salary, I'd give up quite a bit. I suspect another team would still out-bid the Twins.

So, Festa, Rodgriguez, Maya and Lee

[LA Vikes Fan]

Well, this topic did not age well. With Pablo going on the shelf for at least 15 days, the chances of the Twins trading a recently effective starter just went from unlikely to non-existent. My bet is a very quiet trade deadline with at most a middle inning reliever added yet again.   

[DJL44]

37 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Well, this topic did not age well. With Pablo going on the shelf for at least 15 days, the chances of the Twins trading a recently effective starter just went from unlikely to non-existent. My bet is a very quiet trade deadline with at most a middle inning reliever added yet again.   

You're assuming there are no other injuries between now and the trade deadline.

[mickster]

19 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Well, this topic did not age well. With Pablo going on the shelf for at least 15 days, the chances of the Twins trading a recently effective starter just went from unlikely to non-existent. My bet is a very quiet trade deadline with at most a middle inning reliever added yet again.   

We might see a waiver wire pickup to add some veteran depth if anyone becomes available.   Ryan/Ober/Paddack need to carry the load and push as deep as they can every night.