Is Chris Paddack Really Going to Breeze into the Starting Rotation?

[bean5302]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

... I don't see the Twins trading him at the deadline if he's successful...

Well that and Paddack will be injured at the trade deadline like every year since 2020

[Doctor Gast]

FO has more invested in Paddack than money. Whether he breezes or limps through ST, he'll be in the rotation when camp breaks.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

A spring trade to the Yankees or someone else losing arms (Luis Gil likely out til the All-Star break for the yanks already) sounds like a plausible outcome, but I don't see the Twins trading him at the deadline if he's successful. If he's pitching well enough to bring an MLB bat back in return you're threading an awfully tight needle of finding a contending team that needs pitching and has a bat they are willing to trade off their major league roster. And if the Twins are in the race at all and Paddack is pitching well they aren't going to trade him at the deadline for prospects. Don't see many plausible situations where the trade him in season.

I pretty much agree with you EXCEPT......

I would have to take a long look at a trade of Paddock for a prospect if that prospect was an MLB-ready catcher.  Someone similar to Kyle Teal, Samuel Basallo, or Dalton Rushing.  Then I would probably make a move.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I pretty much agree with you EXCEPT......

I would have to take a long look at a trade of Paddock for a prospect if that prospect was an MLB-ready catcher.  Someone similar to Kyle Teal, Samuel Basallo, or Dalton Rushing.  Then I would probably make a move.

I'd trade 10 Paddacks for any other those guys. I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't trade Paddack, I'm saying I don't see a scenario where they actually do after the season starts.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Well that and Paddack will be injured at the trade deadline like every year since 2020

Blind squirrel and all that. But, yes, that is one of the many reasons I don't see him traded after opening day. 

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd trade 10 Paddacks for any other those guys. I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't trade Paddack, I'm saying I don't see a scenario where they actually do after the season starts.

Have to agree they are not getting anything in the vicinity of Teal or Rushing.  What do you think they could get for Paddack if it was a prospect?  I just don't see Paddack bringing back much unless there is a rash of injuries during ST.  Can the get a 45FV type prospect?

[purplesoldier4u]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's a veteran under contract. Of course he is. Meanwhile, Festa and Matthews will waste 10-20 starts in AAA. 

Do either, or both, tend to go deep into ballgames with 90+ pitches?

[WSoxTerritoryTwinsFan]

Depth is cool and all and a handy buzz word for not ditching bums beyond their usefulness. But when you’re blocking a pitcher or two or three or more who has a greater potential to make competitive starts what good is that depth really? An oft injured at absolute best less than mediocre pitcher or any number of young potentially superior pitchers? Easy ass call for me!

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, purplesoldier4u said:

Do either, or both, tend to go deep into ballgames with 90+ pitches?

They were rookies last year. How would we know yet? Btw, very few pitchers go deep into ballgames anymore. Virtually none across all baseball. So I'm not sure your point?

[DocBauer]

Paddack was on the market. The offers weren't bringing back enough for the FO to move him. What that actually means...teams offering low level prospects maybe seeing him as a salary dump...only the FO knows. But I actually understand their reluctance to move him based on their normal MO.

I'm not saying the FO is necessarily wrong, but their opinion is DEPTH. Their belief in depth is almost paranoid. Witness reluctance to play AAA players over underperforming veterans. But since, and beyond and the BIG THREE in the rotation, what if someone suddenly has an injury? What if SWR suddenly regresses? (I don't expect that). Despite what Festa has shown, despite the RISE that Mathews and even Morris has shown, they are looking for depth "just in case".

Personally, I would have moved him to clear $ as part of a bigger signing somewhere, and just trusted in the talent on hand, but that's a different discussion. 

I do object to the comment in the OP that he's a 2 pitch arm. His slider has been developed with the Twins. His issue last season was he "lost" his previously good change. And his FB velocity came and went. If his velocity can be maintained, and his feel for his change comes back, he's actually a pretty viable option. That's why there was trade interest in him. And why he's part of the rotation currently. 

It's hard to debate depth to start the season vs the best arms. I have little doubt that Festa and Matthews have better futures. And not so many years ago the Twins would have arms like them penciled in the rotation.

And maybe it's wrong in the long run to trust Paddack having a really good, solid season a SP. He COULD surprise if his velocity stays constant, and he gets his "feel" back for his change to make him a viable ML SP. 

But maybe he's a trade candidate to let Festa and Matthews run wild and prove themselves. 

I'm hoping for the best from Paddack, and we all might be surprised. But I'm believing he's gone...one way or another...for Festa and Matthews by July at the latest. 

 

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Have to agree they are not getting anything in the vicinity of Teal or Rushing.  What do you think they could get for Paddack if it was a prospect?  I just don't see Paddack bringing back much unless there is a rash of injuries during ST.  Can the get a 45FV type prospect?

The return for Chris Paddack is essentially a shot in the dark, maybe a player from the DSL or rookie leagues. As far as type, it would be 40+ FV at best. Remember that Kyle Gibson is still available and a few guys signed recently for half of what Paddack will earn. 

The Twins made a concerted effort to retain Paddack. There was zero evidence of trade talk. We also don't know if the Twins wanted to trade CP except for comments that the Twins expected good things from him this year. To be totally fair, silence except for the support statements rules the winter. This is a choice and  we as Twins fans hope it turns out well. This is just another reason why it is somewhat ludicrous to gasp about payroll when Paddack's position was easily replaced by several minimum wage guys. So, think positive and hope big Chris has a couple of decent months. I'm happy for him that he gets to earn a good wage and pitch in the major leagues.

[IndianaTwin]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Paddack was on the market. The offers weren't bringing back enough for the FO to move him. What that actually means...teams offering low level prospects maybe seeing him as a salary dump...only the FO knows. But I actually understand their reluctance to move him based on their normal MO.

I'm not saying the FO is necessarily wrong, but their opinion is DEPTH. Their belief in depth is almost paranoid. Witness reluctance to play AAA players over underperforming veterans. But since, and beyond and the BIG THREE in the rotation, what if someone suddenly has an injury? What if SWR suddenly regresses? (I don't expect that). Despite what Festa has shown, despite the RISE that Mathews and even Morris has shown, they are looking for depth "just in case".

Personally, I would have moved him to clear $ as part of a bigger signing somewhere, and just trusted in the talent on hand, but that's a different discussion. 

I do object to the comment in the OP that he's a 2 pitch arm. His slider has been developed with the Twins. His issue last season was he "lost" his previously good change. And his FB velocity came and went. If his velocity can be maintained, and his feel for his change comes back, he's actually a pretty viable option. That's why there was trade interest in him. And why he's part of the rotation currently. 

It's hard to debate depth to start the season vs the best arms. I have little doubt that Festa and Matthews have better futures. And not so many years ago the Twins would have arms like them penciled in the rotation.

And maybe it's wrong in the long run to trust Paddack having a really good, solid season a SP. He COULD surprise if his velocity stays constant, and he gets his "feel" back for his change to make him a viable ML SP. 

But maybe he's a trade candidate to let Festa and Matthews run wild and prove themselves. 

I'm hoping for the best from Paddack, and we all might be surprised. But I'm believing he's gone...one way or another...for Festa and Matthews by July at the latest. 

 

On the depth question, I would add that I don’t think he’s taking significant starts away from Festa and Matthews. If he was gone, the likelihood of either of them starting in the rotation and turning in 32 starts is very slim, given their relatively low workloads in the past. The most Matthews has thrown in a season is 135 innings and Festa 125. 

Festa and Matthews are each going to get 20-25 starts (or more accurately, each will be up early enough to get 20-25 starts if they perform well). Paddack’s presence may just delay when they get their first starts. The starts Paddack is getting are primarily at the expense of someone after that, when it means that they won’t have to go to Raya, one of the others or even Dobnak as quickly. 

[Otaknam]

For the penurious ownership, this is about his $7.5 million contract. They would rather get something from Paddock pitching rather than paying a young starter ML minimum wage. But if Paddock truly has a two pitch arsenal he can’t have much success as a starter against major league hitters. 

[WSoxTerritoryTwinsFan]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

On the depth question, I would add that I don’t think he’s taking significant starts away from Festa and Matthews. If he was gone, the likelihood of either of them starting in the rotation and turning in 32 starts is very slim, given their relatively low workloads in the past. The most Matthews has thrown in a season is 135 innings and Festa 125. 

Festa and Matthews are each going to get 20-25 starts (or more accurately, each will be up early enough to get 20-25 starts if they perform well). Paddack’s presence may just delay when they get their first starts. The starts Paddack is getting are primarily at the expense of someone after that, when it means that they won’t have to go to Raya, one of the others or even Dobnak as quickly. 

He’s blocking one of them every time he makes a start and they’re both already more competitive than Paddock. He’s a known quantity and it’s know to be meh. They may or may not make 32 starts but how would we ever know? 20 starts per for Festa/Mathews at 5 innings per is 100 innings a piece. Plus SWR and any other higher ceiling guy in AAA to go with the top of the rotation. Throw Paddock in the BP if you refuse to eat that $/trade that $ but let HIM be the one to make spot starts and fill in when need be.
Lets finally see what we have here please. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

On the depth question, I would add that I don’t think he’s taking significant starts away from Festa and Matthews. If he was gone, the likelihood of either of them starting in the rotation and turning in 32 starts is very slim, given their relatively low workloads in the past. The most Matthews has thrown in a season is 135 innings and Festa 125. 

Festa and Matthews are each going to get 20-25 starts (or more accurately, each will be up early enough to get 20-25 starts if they perform well). Paddack’s presence may just delay when they get their first starts. The starts Paddack is getting are primarily at the expense of someone after that, when it means that they won’t have to go to Raya, one of the others or even Dobnak as quickly. 

don't the AAA starts count as starts? I mean, they'll be starting in AAA while he's in MN, so when he goes down (if), they will have made about as many starts as him......his presence doesn't delay them pitching in St. Paul.

[IndianaTwin]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

don't the AAA starts count as starts? I mean, they'll be starting in AAA while he's in MN, so when he goes down (if), they will have made about as many starts as him......his presence doesn't delay them pitching in St. Paul.

Yes, but it's easier to manage workload in AAA starts.

Ober in 2023 is a reasonable comparison. There was clamoring for him to start with the Twins over Maeda (and for the record, Ober had shown much more success in 2021 and 2022 than either Festa or Matthews has to date),

Ober made four starts in St. Paul before Mahle went down, but all were on five days rest. Ober's starts totaled 17.2 innings and averaged just under 75 pitches. Mahle had made five starts during that time, totaling 25.2 innings, including that he was pulled early in his final start.

AAA starts being what they are, one can likely assume that Ober's were also lower stress innings. Early season AAA starts are one step up from extended spring training (or can be treated as such). That's the type of starts I would expect Festa to make before he's called up to replace whichever pitcher goes down first -- long rest with manageable pitch counts, including getting pulled if any inning gets past 25 or so pitches.

[laloesch]

3 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

On the depth question, I would add that I don’t think he’s taking significant starts away from Festa and Matthews. If he was gone, the likelihood of either of them starting in the rotation and turning in 32 starts is very slim, given their relatively low workloads in the past. The most Matthews has thrown in a season is 135 innings and Festa 125. 

Festa and Matthews are each going to get 20-25 starts (or more accurately, each will be up early enough to get 20-25 starts if they perform well). Paddack’s presence may just delay when they get their first starts. The starts Paddack is getting are primarily at the expense of someone after that, when it means that they won’t have to go to Raya, one of the others or even Dobnak as quickly. 

If Dobnak is making starts at Target field this season the Twins are in BIG trouble from a starting pitcher perspective.

[old nurse]

Zips projection are inaccurate for individual players. Do the prospects have a higher ceiling than Paddack? Paddack’s best was a FIP of 3.75. I don’t know if for this year you could say with any authority yes or no. 

[IndianaTwin]

16 minutes ago, laloesch said:

If Dobnak is making starts at Target field this season the Twins are in BIG trouble from a starting pitcher perspective.

That's why I used him as one of my examples. 😀

In essence, that's my point. Having Paddack lessens the likelihood of Dobnakian starts happening. 

I'm not suggesting Paddack is going to get any Cy Young votes, but I'm in the camp of "you can never have too much pitching." The Dodgers have had guys much more highly regarded than Festa and Matthews, and they've been stockpiling veterans as insurance for years (and getting bailed out by it). In the big scheme of things, I think Paddack isn't a bad option in that role. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Zips projection are inaccurate for individual players. Do the prospects have a higher ceiling than Paddack? Paddack’s best was a FIP of 3.75. I don’t know if for this year you could say with any authority yes or no. 

Inaccurate compared to what other projections? You have to project the future to make decisions. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

That's why I used him as one of my examples. 😀

In essence, that's my point. Having Paddack lessens the likelihood of that happening. 

I'm not suggesting Paddack is going to get any Cy Young votes, but I'm in the camp of "you can never have too much pitching." The Dodgers have had guys much more highly regarded than Festa and Matthews, and they've been stockpiling veterans as insurance for years (and getting bailed out by it). In the big scheme of things, I think Paddack isn't a bad option in that role. 

The dodgers have infinite payroll....festa and Matthews are both in the fifty to seventy range for top 100 prospects. These aren't random guys.

[chpettit19]

17 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Have to agree they are not getting anything in the vicinity of Teal or Rushing.  What do you think they could get for Paddack if it was a prospect?  I just don't see Paddack bringing back much unless there is a rash of injuries during ST.  Can the get a 45FV type prospect?

Low minors flier. Some sort of 19 year old lottery ticket is probably the best they can get. Or somebody like Mickey Gasper who's an older, borderline 40-man guy on another team that the Twins like more than that team does.

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Yes, but it's easier to manage workload in AAA starts.

Ober in 2023 is a reasonable comparison. There was clamoring for him to start with the Twins over Maeda (and for the record, Ober had shown much more success in 2021 and 2022 than either Festa or Matthews has to date),

Ober made four starts in St. Paul before Mahle went down, but all were on five days rest. Ober's starts totaled 17.2 innings and averaged just under 75 pitches. Mahle had made five starts during that time, totaling 25.2 innings, including that he was pulled early in his final start.

AAA starts being what they are, one can likely assume that Ober's were also lower stress innings. Early season AAA starts are one step up from extended spring training (or can be treated as such). That's the type of starts I would expect Festa to make before he's called up to replace whichever pitcher goes down first -- long rest with manageable pitch counts, including getting pulled if any inning gets past 25 or so pitches.

I don't think the Ober comparison is all that good, actually. Bailey threw 108.1 innings in 2021. He threw 72.2 innings in 2022. Festa threw 92.1 in 2023 and 124.2 in 2024. Zebby threw 105.1 in 2023 and 134.2 in 2024. Those guys threw nearly double the innings that Ober did the year before he was seeing those short AAA starts to start the year. 

Sure, you can manage AAA starts easier, but why would they? Neither Festa nor Zebby should be on meaningful inning counts at all this year. Bailey Ober threw 167 innings in 2023 coming off those 2 much lower inning total years. The Twins don't need to hold Festa or Zebby back.

[IndianaTwin]

42 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think the Ober comparison is all that good, actually. Bailey threw 108.1 innings in 2021. He threw 72.2 innings in 2022. Festa threw 92.1 in 2023 and 124.2 in 2024. Zebby threw 105.1 in 2023 and 134.2 in 2024. Those guys threw nearly double the innings that Ober did the year before he was seeing those short AAA starts to start the year. 

Sure, you can manage AAA starts easier, but why would they? Neither Festa nor Zebby should be on meaningful inning counts at all this year. Bailey Ober threw 167 innings in 2023 coming off those 2 much lower inning total years. The Twins don't need to hold Festa or Zebby back.

I'm probably coming across as a bigger Paddack fan that I actually am. I'm mainly a fan of flexibility.

Is it realistic to expect 160 innings from Festa? Because that's what it seems people are saying by having him in the rotation at the beginning of the year. They think Festa is in a position to last the season (i.e., 32 starts). And since he (or Rocco) would get lambasted if he only averages five innings per start, we're really talking 170 innings or more (or even the 167 from Ober's 2023). Or people are convinced that if Festa doesn't make it through the year, one of the other rookies will be ready to step in. I'm optimistic that one of them could be ready, but the road is also littered with can't-miss prospects who did.

Maybe there's more examples than I realize, but it seems like Ober is the pretty rare exception of holding up for that many innings as a rookie. Matthews and Festa are also both younger than Ober was. And while still huge (at least to the 5-11, 180 pound guy I was at that age), they are not as physically strong as Ober was/is.

I agree that there's no need to artificially limit the number of innings Festa throws. And that's not what I'm suggesting with the MiLB starts. I'm suggesting that if he's not needed with the Twins, you might as well save a few bullets while he's in St. Paul to increase the likelihood of having more innings remaining when he does get to the majors. Similarly, I think the point in starting Ober in St. Paul was more about delaying the need for him than it was about managing innings, although I'm guessing that managing innings was probably part of the conversation. They did obviously decide at some point that he was able to take on 167 innings.

It just seems doubtful to me that Festa will throw 160+ innings. Too many things happen. If he is good for even 140 innings, for example, I'd rather the MLB portion of those not start on April 1 and be depleted by September 1. Or more accurately, I'd rather they not be FORCED to start on April 1 and be FORCED to count on another rookie in September.

And finally (and I do need to make this finally, since I'm supposed to be on the work clock), this whole discussion seems to come down to Paddack vs. Festa, which ignores that other pitchers can get hurt too. If Paddack is dumped or moved to the bullpen and one of Lopez/Ober/Ryan gets hurt, I'd really rather not have a rotation with three youngsters in SWR, Festa and Matthews starting the year, with a need to call up one of other rookies by the end of April when another starter goes down and still another by sometime in May.  

[Mike Sixel]

55 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'm probably coming across as a bigger Paddack fan that I actually am. I'm mainly a fan of flexibility.

Is it realistic to expect 160 innings from Festa? Because that's what it seems people are saying by having him in the rotation at the beginning of the year. They think Festa is in a position to last the season (i.e., 32 starts). And since he (or Rocco) would get lambasted if he only averages five innings per start, we're really talking 170 innings or more (or even the 167 from Ober's 2023). Or people are convinced that if Festa doesn't make it through the year, one of the other rookies will be ready to step in. I'm optimistic that one of them could be ready, but the road is also littered with can't-miss prospects who did.

Maybe there's more examples than I realize, but it seems like Ober is the pretty rare exception of holding up for that many innings as a rookie. Matthews and Festa are also both younger than Ober was. And while still huge (at least to the 5-11, 180 pound guy I was at that age), they are not as physically strong as Ober was/is.

I agree that there's no need to artificially limit the number of innings Festa throws. And that's not what I'm suggesting with the MiLB starts. I'm suggesting that if he's not needed with the Twins, you might as well save a few bullets while he's in St. Paul to increase the likelihood of having more innings remaining when he does get to the majors. Similarly, I think the point in starting Ober in St. Paul was more about delaying the need for him than it was about managing innings, although I'm guessing that managing innings was probably part of the conversation. They did obviously decide at some point that he was able to take on 167 innings.

It just seems doubtful to me that Festa will throw 160+ innings. Too many things happen. If he is good for even 140 innings, for example, I'd rather the MLB portion of those not start on April 1 and be depleted by September 1. Or more accurately, I'd rather they not be FORCED to start on April 1 and be FORCED to count on another rookie in September.

And finally (and I do need to make this finally, since I'm supposed to be on the work clock), this whole discussion seems to come down to Paddack vs. Festa, which ignores that other pitchers can get hurt too. If Paddack is dumped or moved to the bullpen and one of Lopez/Ober/Ryan gets hurt, I'd really rather not have a rotation with three youngsters in SWR, Festa and Matthews starting the year, with a need to call up one of other rookies by the end of April when another starter goes down and still another by sometime in May.  

Five innings per start is pretty much league average..... At some point, you have to trust your younger players, unless you increase payroll....

I'm not opposed to paddock,I just don't agree they need the depth. I have no idea if he'll be good or not at this point, but I can't see how he makes 25 starts given the last few years. He's also not on the roster next year, unless they increase payroll, so you'll have to trust those other guys at that point.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'm probably coming across as a bigger Paddack fan that I actually am. I'm mainly a fan of flexibility.

Is it realistic to expect 160 innings from Festa? Because that's what it seems people are saying by having him in the rotation at the beginning of the year. They think Festa is in a position to last the season (i.e., 32 starts). And since he (or Rocco) would get lambasted if he only averages five innings per start, we're really talking 170 innings or more (or even the 167 from Ober's 2023). Or people are convinced that if Festa doesn't make it through the year, one of the other rookies will be ready to step in. I'm optimistic that one of them could be ready, but the road is also littered with can't-miss prospects who did.

Maybe there's more examples than I realize, but it seems like Ober is the pretty rare exception of holding up for that many innings as a rookie. Matthews and Festa are also both younger than Ober was. And while still huge (at least to the 5-11, 180 pound guy I was at that age), they are not as physically strong as Ober was/is.

I agree that there's no need to artificially limit the number of innings Festa throws. And that's not what I'm suggesting with the MiLB starts. I'm suggesting that if he's not needed with the Twins, you might as well save a few bullets while he's in St. Paul to increase the likelihood of having more innings remaining when he does get to the majors. Similarly, I think the point in starting Ober in St. Paul was more about delaying the need for him than it was about managing innings, although I'm guessing that managing innings was probably part of the conversation. They did obviously decide at some point that he was able to take on 167 innings.

It just seems doubtful to me that Festa will throw 160+ innings. Too many things happen. If he is good for even 140 innings, for example, I'd rather the MLB portion of those not start on April 1 and be depleted by September 1. Or more accurately, I'd rather they not be FORCED to start on April 1 and be FORCED to count on another rookie in September.

And finally (and I do need to make this finally, since I'm supposed to be on the work clock), this whole discussion seems to come down to Paddack vs. Festa, which ignores that other pitchers can get hurt too. If Paddack is dumped or moved to the bullpen and one of Lopez/Ober/Ryan gets hurt, I'd really rather not have a rotation with three youngsters in SWR, Festa and Matthews starting the year, with a need to call up one of other rookies by the end of April when another starter goes down and still another by sometime in May.  

I don't think there's reason to expect any individual MLB pitcher to throw 160+ innings this day and age. But I don't think Festa has a worse chance than the average pitcher. I don't see any reason why the Twins would artificially hold his innings down, though. Only reason he shouldn't throw 160+ is because of injury or poor performance. Even starting in AAA, those starts shouldn't be artificially held down. He should pitch as he would if he were in the bigs as that's the hurdle he needs to clear and the workload he needs to be built up at. I don't think it'd be advisable to have him used to throwing 4 or 5 innings and then ask him to go to the majors and throw 6 against tougher competition.

The need, I think, is sort of the disagreement amongst fans. One could argue that the 2023 Twins needed their 5 best starters in the majors from the start of the season to give them the best chance to win the most games. I don't think there's many people who thought Ober wasn't one of their 5 best starters after spring. The same debate is happening now about Paddack and (mostly) Festa. I think there's valid points to be made on both sides.

I disagree with the stance that he can't throw 160+ innings. That's a pretty standard increase in his workload. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a team in the majors that wouldn't be just fine with that jump in innings. And I don't think holding him in AAA for any meaningful amount of time raises the chances that he's still got gas in September. Your Ober vs Mahle example was Ober saving 7 innings in a month. I don't buy that that would equal a meaningful difference in his stamina come September.

Reasonable arguments can be made on Paddack starting the season in the rotation, bullpen, or on another team. I don't think it's as clear cut as others may. I'd put him in the pen as a 2 inning weapon. I think the Twins will need about 8 starters again this year like they have the last 2. I'm good with Ryan, Ober, Lopez, SWR, Festa, and Zebby being the first 6 with a handful of other guys fighting for the 7, 8, 9 spots. I understand that comes with some risk, but I think it's a reasonable risk to take. At some point the pipeline has to flow. I'm at the point where I'm ready to start relying on it. It's been long enough that the FO should have established their minor leagues. Time to sink or swim. But I don't think it's crazy to start Paddack in the rotation. Just not what I'd do with the information I have.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Inaccurate compared to what other projections? You have to project the future to make decisions. 

Inaccurate compared to any outcome that season that they are made for. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Inaccurate compared to any outcome that season that they are made for. 

compared to what? you have to project the future to make decisions. What would you use instead? How inaccurate are they? 

[darin617]

There are 7.5m reasons Paddack will make the rotation. They most likely tried trading him and nobody would bite on it. I would guess most teams will wait until he gets released and possibly give him a shot.

 

[jud6312]

On 3/4/2025 at 2:47 PM, bean5302 said:

Paddack is guaranteed a rotation spot if he's healthy. The Twins' front office is not going to use a $7.5MM starting pitcher with virtually no reliever history out of the bullpen. He will not earn it on merit because Paddack isn't a great starting pitcher. He's probably a #5 if he's healthy at this point.

I'll also be a little surprised if the Twins don't trade a starter before the season starts (probably Paddack) if everybody is healthy and Castellanos looks good.

To be fair, he has virtually no experience as a starter either. At least not as one that has had recent or sustained success.