Could This Outfield Power Threat Resurrect His Career in the Twins' Farm System?

[Cody Schoenmann]

This young, power-hitting outfielder might be the most intriguing new face at Twins camp this spring training, if you're into that sort of thing.

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

Familiar faces have the kindest eyes. It is a pleasure to watch Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Joe Ryan, among others, grace the friendly confines of the Lee Health Sports Complex every February. Yet, it is equally delightful to watch highly touted prospects and new additions make their first appearance with the organization in Fort Myers. Top prospects Luke Keaschall and Zebby Matthews and offseason additions Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe, and Ty France have rightfully garnered much attention. However, one player type largely flies under the radar: minor-league free agents.

There is a reason those who follow the team elect to give these players little-to-no attention. The reality is that almost none of them will make the Opening Day roster. Also, if any of them need to make substantial appearances for the club, it is likely because something has gone wrong on a performance or injury front. Fans want to avoid speculating about worst-case scenarios; it's just human nature. That said, these marginal contributors deserve the time of day, even if seeing them appear at the major-league level likely indicates the club's performance or health is trending the wrong way.

This offseason, the organization brought in recognizable names Mike Ford, Huascar Ynoa, and Alex Speas on minor-league contracts. Various less-recognizable names also joined the organization. Yet, one new addition is particularly intriguing: Allan Cerda.

Signed by the Cincinnati Reds as an international free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2017, the young outfielder quickly progressed through Cincinnati's minor-league system, becoming the organization's 14th-ranked prospect entering the 2020 season, according to FanGraphs's Eric Longenhagen.

Cerda continued to fly up Longenhagen's list, earning the fifth spot in his and Tess Taruskin's 2022 Reds prospects rankings, only two spots behind now-superstar Elly De La Cruz. The authors noted Cerda's exceptional talent, large frame, and near-elite raw power as reasons for ranking him so high. Unfortunately, the gigantic outfield prospect plummeted to the 36th spot in Longenhagen's list in 2023—interestingly, one spot ahead of fellow Twin Daniel Duarte. Longenhagen cited his continued issues with a "very immature approach to hitting" as the reason for Cerda falling 31 spots in just one year. Unfortunately, his performance didn't improve, as he struck out 34.6% of the time over 155 plate appearances at Double A that season.

The former top prospect left the organization the following offseason, joining the San Francisco Giants on a minor-league contract. His woes at the plate continued, as he struck out in 32.7% of his 38 plate appearances between High A and Double A before being released by San Francisco. He re-joined the Reds' Double-A club for 23 games to close out the season, then elected free agency in November and signed a minor-league contract with the Twins in early December. The 25-year-old is looking to rejuvenate his career in what might be his final opportunity in affiliated baseball.

Cerda has taken advantage of his minimal opportunities early this offseason, crushing a two-run home run off an 88-MPH slider from Detroit Tigers pitcher Brendan White in the eighth inning of an exhibition game last week. His home run traveled 414 feet, with a 106-mph exit velocity. Cerda demolished that ball, as evidenced by the sound it made off his bat, showing flashes of what once made him a prized prospect in Cincinnati's robust system. He has generated two doubles and a single over his next five at-bats, staying hot. 

Obviously, nothing of substance can be taken away from seven plate appearances against primarily minor-league pitchers, and he could easily go 0-3 with a strikeout in his next game. That said, if he continues to impress this spring, a real opportunity could arise in Cerda's future. If he stays with Minnesota, he could begin the season in the Triple-A St. Paul Saints' outfield mix, alongside DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Emmanuel Rodriguez, Will Holland, Carson McCusker, and others. There are no expectations for him to contribute to the 2025 Twins. If he were to be promoted, that would mean something went catastrophically wrong with the parent club, or he performed at an exceptionally above-average rate over an extended period with St. Paul.

If he can re-establish himself in the high minors, there is reason to suspect Cerda could blossom into the viable major-league contributor Longenhagen once projected him to be. He will need to demonstrate significant approach adjustments (and sustain them for an extended period) to make that happen. That said, Minnesota's player development department has demonstrated the ability to assist talented yet flawed young hitters in refining their swing and approach and reinvigorating their once-waning potential. Cerda and his near-elite raw power could flourish into their next success story. His performance this spring and early this minor-league season will be a fascinating storyline.

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[thelanges5]

Thanks Cody, was wondering who this Cerda fella was. 

[Dman]

Cerda has looked good so far this spring, but as noted it's a SSS and the competition hasn't been super high.  Still that HR was a bomb and the Twins have never seemed scared of players high K rates as long as they can lift enough balls out of the park.  I'd say he landed with the perfect org for his skillset.

He's going to have to gain better plate discipline to make it and hit off speed stuff, but I like what I have seen so far and if he can get himself on track he would be quite a find.  34% K rates are hard to overcome so he's a looong shot but a fun one.

[jmlease1]

I think it's good to buy this kind of lottery ticket for the minor league system. But he's really struggled with consistent contact, especially against more advanced pitchers. Happy to take a flyer on a guy with his prospect pedigree and see if he's someone who needed a different style, or simply more time to mature, or maybe just to feel the twinge of desperation in the back of his head to get the message through. He's obviously not just flailing at everything (nice OBP in the minors), but he's also not getting hits. He looks like an extreme long shot to me. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

12 minutes ago, Dman said:

Cerda has looked good so far this spring, but as noted it's a SSS and the competition hasn't been super high.  Still that HR was a bomb and the Twins have never seemed scared of players high K rates as long as they can lift enough balls out of the park.  I'd say he landed with the perfect org for his skillset.

He's going to have to gain better plate discipline to make it and hit off speed stuff, but I like what I have seen so far and if he can get himself on track he would be quite a find.  34% K rates are hard to overcome so he's looong shot but a fun one.

He's still fairly young at 25 and his raw power is truly elite. Obviously, there should be no expectations at this point, but he will be a fun player to monitor as long as he stays in the Twins system. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The Twins are due for one of these types of fliers to break in their direction.

[HerbieFan]

I like these no-risk, potential upside MiLB signings.  Always worth a flier.  

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. 

[Doctor Gast]

The Twins are said to be trying to transform our hitters. Maybe Cerda has benefitted from this endeavor. He has gotten my attention & best wishes to succeed.

[DocBauer]

Sure, why not take a flier on a 25yo former prospect? Castro is a really good recent example of a kid who was either rushed, or developed late, or both. Power plays. And Cerda has maintained a somewhat surprising .360 OB% for his MILB career. You can do that, even at a 30% or more K rate if you BB a fair amount.

However, that OB% might be a bit of an illusion. Successful, powerful bats that K a lot and BB a lot can usually hit, at least a little bit, especially in MILB. But since he came stateside, he's hit above .250 just once. And he's been closer to .200 the past 3 years. 

I'll watch him, but there's guys like McCusker I'm watching a lot more closely.

[Blyleven2011]

When I read the title , his name formed in my brain , I've been following this cerda  guy ...

He most likely is just depth , but if our FO and manager can get past the under performing vets or players ( make a move sooner rather than later ) and need to fill a position  and cerda has found his way in AAA  , there's  a chance he could join the club  , injuries hopefully won't be the culprit  , if he has earned it , give him or someone else an opportunity to contribute  , I hope our players don't struggle but if they do , we've got it covered  ...

[Fatbat]

Cerda, Sano…. Different humans, Same results eventually….

[Elliot]

Any reports on his defense?

[ashbury]

Maybe I missed it in the article, but was there injury involved in his 2023-2024 seasons when he had a lot fewer plate appearances than when he still looked like a solid prospect in 2022 and before?   (/edit - actually it appears he's always missed significant time as a pro, except in 2022.)

If the Twins see something they like in his fundamentals, and believe the injury jinx is behind him, I wouldn't start him at AAA but it's a reasonable investment of a roster slot at AA to see whether he can regain his former luster, with a possible promotion to AAA mid-season.  Even some low-leverage PA with the big club during Spring is a very auspicious signal.

He could be a sleeper prospect.   In fact, quite possibly the perfect sleeper.  Cerda?  Serta?   Ah ha ha ha ha ha ha hahhhh, I slay me.

[ashbury]

13 hours ago, Elliot said:

Any reports on his defense?

The composite scouting report on his defense in the OOTP computer game has him as a potentially capable corner outfielder whose arm in particular would make him no better than adequate in CF.

Indeed their overall scouting report would have him as a poor-man's Emmanuel Rodriguez.  For better or for worse and with much the same baggage for debate.

[Otaknam]

It can’t hurt to give him a shot. But a strikeout rate of over 30% isn’t sustainable unless he hits 40 home runs. So I’m not optimistic. 

[TFRazor]

12 hours ago, ashbury said:

Maybe I missed it in the article, but was there injury involved in his 2023-2024 seasons when he had a lot fewer plate appearances than when he still looked like a solid prospect in 2022 and before?   (/edit - actually it appears he's always missed significant time as a pro, except in 2022.)

If the Twins see something they like in his fundamentals, and believe the injury jinx is behind him, I wouldn't start him at AAA but it's a reasonable investment of a roster slot at AA to see whether he can regain his former luster, with a possible promotion to AAA mid-season.  Even some low-leverage PA with the big club during Spring is a very auspicious signal.

He could be a sleeper prospect.   In fact, quite possibly the perfect sleeper.  Cerda?  Serta?   Ah ha ha ha ha ha ha hahhhh, I slay me.

You know the joke's good when you make yourself laugh.

[LambchoP]

Iv been wondering who this Cerda guy was after seeing him hit that homer the other day. He's a young lottery ticket, maybe we get lucky and he puts it all together this year. He could be part of a trade package if he's not part of our plans.