A Healthy Jhoan Durán Allows For Flexibility In The Minnesota Twins Bullpen

[Matthew Lenz]

Rocco Baldelli sat down with writers covering the Minnesota Twins to kick off spring training on Thursday. One topic of conversation was Jhoan Durán’s robust health, and his usage (alongside Griffin Jax). Let’s read the tea leaves and talk about what the closer role might look like in 2025.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

In 2024, Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax combined for over half of the Twins' high-leverage innings, as defined by FanGraphs. This was despite Durán getting a late start to his 2024 campaign, due to an oblique strain. Yesterday, Rocco Baldelli acknowledged that the injury impacted his performance.

“I don’t know how big of an effect it had, but I’d say it definitely was something that tempered his ability to get to where he needs to be,” Beldelli said. 

The Twins manager pointed to the second half of the season as the time when Durán was throwing the ball “exceptionally well”. The data surely supports this notion, as Durán sported a 1.97 FIP, a 27.3% strikeout minus walk rate, and a lowly .152 opponents' batting average from Jul. 1 on. As the Twins are getting set to begin spring training, Durán’s health continues to be a topic of conversation.

“I think you could really look at [Durán] and see that he spent a lot of time and effort on coming in in excellent shape”, said Baldelli. So can we expect Durán to reprise his role as one of the league's most dominant closers? Come to think of it, has Baldelli ever named a “closer”? He hasn't.

“[Durán’s] going to throw a lot of ninth innings for us," he said. "I’m sure [Jax] will throw some ninth innings for us.”

Last season, Durán dominated ninth-inning appearances 41 to 15, but the two were nearly equal in high-leverage appearances, where Jax held a 44 to 38 advantage. So while Baldelli won't officially name a closer, Durán seemed to be the go-to guy in save situations, while Jax was used in high-leverage opportunities earlier in games.

As much as we love to see one of the best closer entrances in baseball, maybe Baldelli is onto something by not naming a closer. Instead, what if Durán and Jax were just two high-leverage relievers who very rarely (ideally never) had to pitch on back-to-back nights? Given the Twins' depth in the bullpen (when healthy), is it feasible to alternate Durán and Jax and use them in whatever high-leverage situation might arise on days when it's their turn, regardless of inning?

While Durán has done his best work when pitching on back-to-back nights, limiting those types of outings will undoubtedly keep him fresher and healthier over the grueling season. For Jax, he's found the most success when given a day or two between appearances, so this strategy would dually put him in the best position to be successful. Moreover, the workload would stay roughly the same but the added rest could bring the impact of both players to another level.

While deploying this strategy may be better for the team, it would require a lot of flexibility and understanding from the two players. For better or worse (mostly worse), saves reign supreme when it comes to reliever compensation, especially arbitration awards. Telling two of the best relievers in the game they may not be used in those situations as often would likely have an impact on their bottom line. Additionally, Baldelli would be committing late-game, high-leverage opportunities to the likes of Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, or Jorge Alcalá. No disrespect to those guys, but they just aren't in the same tier as Jax or Durán.

Regardless of how Baldelli decides to use his relief arms, the talent that sits in the bullpen gives him the flexibility to manage each moment nimbly. He can worry less about saving an arm for later in the game, given one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

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If you could manage the Twins’ bullpen, what would your strategy be? A more traditional hierarchy (middle relief, set up, closers) or a more flexible approach? Share your thoughts in the comments!

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[Blyleven2011]

A healthy roster period equals flexibility  ...

Pitching is a strength ...

not so sure about the offense and defense  ...

[Doctor Gast]

It doesn't surprise me that Baldelli won't name a closer because he doesn't believe in a classic closer. But closer has some prestige to it. IMO Duran is tired of the fireman role, that little prideful skip that I love isn't as occurring, which I miss. IMO keep him as the main closer with Jax filling in when need be. And use Jax more of a fireman. IMO Stewart, Cole & Alcala are fine set-up men. It'll be interesting how Columbe will figure in.

[dxpavelka]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

It doesn't surprise me that Baldelli won't name a closer because he doesn't believe in a classic closer. But closer has some prestige to it. IMO Duran is tired of the fireman role, that little prideful skip that I love isn't as occurring, which I miss. IMO keep him as the main closer with Jax filling in when need be. And use Jax more of a fireman. IMO Stewart, Cole & Alcala are fine set-up men. It'll be interesting how Columbe will figure in.

The Twins will do just enough little things (little to us and to the team but BIG to a player) to piss him off and he'll leave the moment he can in free agency.  Never giving a guy who was a starter all thru the minors a chance to be a starter in the big leagues.  Telling a guy who has been a closer for three years that he's now a "high leverage reliever" instead of a closer.  The day he can be gone, he's gone.  Cue the "need to trade him before he leaves" talk shortly.

[Whitey333]

We sure could use a healthy Duran.  When he's at his best he is very dominating.  Last year he took 9 losses plus blew many save opportunities.  9 losses for a "closer" is disastrous.   As hard as he throws I sure hope he can stay healthy.  We need him if we are going to be serious contenders.  Go Twins!!

[twinzcynic]

27 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

The Twins will do just enough little things (little to us and to the team but BIG to a player) to piss him off and he'll leave the moment he can in free agency.

I can't agree with this more. This is the human side of baseball that our twinz philosophy is lacking in. Imagine being excellent at work, one of the best in the world at what you do, and you've been placed in and out of a position of great prestige. This upcoming business year, your boss says you won't get that full-time promotion to that position, despite excelling at it in the past. Yeah, I'd be PO'd too and want out of that organization ASAP.

[Karbo]

I hope the new owners make some changes, to the FO and on field management.

[In My La Z boy]

10 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I hope the new owners make some changes, to the FO and on field management.

 

10 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I hope the new owners make some changes, to the FO and on field management.

 

11 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I hope the new owners make some changes, to the FO and on field management.

3 Times This ☝️

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

The Twins will do just enough little things (little to us and to the team but BIG to a player) to piss him off and he'll leave the moment he can in free agency.  Never giving a guy who was a starter all thru the minors a chance to be a starter in the big leagues.  Telling a guy who has been a closer for three years that he's now a "high leverage reliever" instead of a closer.  The day he can be gone, he's gone.  Cue the "need to trade him before he leaves" talk shortly.

I've said this before about Jax. Has Duran expressed interest in starting? Or that just you being speculative? 

It's also worth mentioning that it's kind of a necessity for a team that isn't in the top echelon of payroll to trade away closers before free agency. Based on his ability and age, he might be in line for a 4 year 80 million dollar deal. 

So, yeah, Twins will trade Duran next offseason (or this all star break if they're out of it). 

Edit: wait! I'm jumping the gun a year. He'll get like 8 million next year in arb 2 though so it is possible they start to shop him next offseason though. 

[UK Twin]

Let's be honest, if Duran's on it he's going to be the one to close out games. Jax is awesome, but that fastball/splinker/curveball combo is downright filthy when they are working. While Baldelli won't officially name a closer it will be Duran unless something goes badly wrong with him. He's already reached 99 with his FB and Spring Training's only been going 1 day! 

He's worked really hard in the offseason according to an article by Dan Hayes, he's slimmer and fitter than last year. Obviously the injury didn't help either but he's in a much better shape now than 12 months ago. 

[T.O.]

40 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

 

 

3 Times This ☝️

You're standing in the Grand Canyon?😄
I said it out loud 3 times with you.

[T.O.]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

....Last year he took 9 losses plus blew many save opportunities.  9 losses for a "closer" is disastrous....

About that entrance. When a player is struggling and is still faced with an unrealistic hype like that entrance wouldn't that effect them as far as trying too hard to live up to the hype?
The entrance wore thin with me last year. I can't think it helped Duran.
 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The Twins will do just enough little things (little to us and to the team but BIG to a player) to piss him off and he'll leave the moment he can in free agency.  Never giving a guy who was a starter all thru the minors a chance to be a starter in the big leagues.  Telling a guy who has been a closer for three years that he's now a "high leverage reliever" instead of a closer.  The day he can be gone, he's gone.  Cue the "need to trade him before he leaves" talk shortly.

We heard this same rhetoric with Buxton.  Many stated this with Buxton as if it was a fact that he would leave as soon as he had the chance.  It's actually more likely that the Twins won't want to extend Duran because they are not inclined to put that kind of money into a RP. 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The Twins will do just enough little things (little to us and to the team but BIG to a player) to piss him off and he'll leave the moment he can in free agency.  Never giving a guy who was a starter all thru the minors a chance to be a starter in the big leagues.  Telling a guy who has been a closer for three years that he's now a "high leverage reliever" instead of a closer.  The day he can be gone, he's gone.  Cue the "need to trade him before he leaves" talk shortly.

There's just no evidence on this stuff. It's all people reading what they want to see, usually because they have a bias baked in.

Let's take this in order: the starter issue. Would you rather be an injured starter who never lasts in MLB or a great reliever? We've never heard anything from Duran that suggests he thinks he got screwed by moving to the bullpen.

The "closer" issue: since Baldelli has never named a closer, claiming that Duran has been a closer for 3 years is a stretch. In Duran's first season, Pagan finished more games and had more saves. Duran was far and away the best reliever that year, but was he the "closer"? year 2: he's the best reliever in the 'pen, had the most saves, finished the most games. While never named the "closer", he fits here, though he still had 20% of his appearances before the 9th inning. year 3: not the best reliever in the Twins bullpen (Jax was better by basically ever measure) but did lead the team in saves. Increased the amount of times he entered before the 9th to 25%. Reasonable pick as "closer", but the role was less defined with Duran dealing with injury again, Jax pitching incredibly well, and Sands coming on. So he's the closer for more like 1 1/2 season rather than 3?

Going from being a "closer" to "high leverage reliever" being an insult. Considering the increasing numbers of teams who look at their best relievers as being something more than a 9th inning save situation only pitcher, being more of a fireman than a 1990's style closer isn't an insult, nor does it harm his earning potential. He's a dominant relief pitcher, and he's going to get paid. He'll have more value and more suitors coming for him if he keeps showing he doesn't need to be a 9th inning save situation only guy.

we've never heard anything form Duran about wanting to leave, so why exactly are you predicting that as soon as he can leave he's gone? because YOU don't like the way the Twins run their bullpen. Not because Duran is mad about it. He seems fine.

The trick for the twins is which elite reliever gets extended past their arbitration: Jax or Duran? Both can be kept this season and next, but going into their last season of arbitration if they haven't been extended one will probably be traded for value, but not because they're trying to force their way out.

[NYCTK]

26 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

The trick for the twins is which elite reliever gets extended past their arbitration: Jax or Duran?

Probably neither. They would need to negotiate an extension right now in order for that to happen. 

Probably should be Jax since he's cheaper due to the arbitrary nature of the closers role. But I think he's less likely to stick with the organization than Duran, given that they have refused to let him try to play the position he clearly prefers. 

But, does it make sense for the Twins to even TRY to extend a pitcher past 32 right now? Probably not.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, UK Twin said:

Let's be honest, if Duran's on it he's going to be the one to close out games. Jax is awesome, but that fastball/splinker/curveball combo is downright filthy when they are working. While Baldelli won't officially name a closer it will be Duran unless something goes badly wrong with him. He's already reached 99 with his FB and Spring Training's only been going 1 day! 

He's worked really hard in the offseason according to an article by Dan Hayes, he's slimmer and fitter than last year. Obviously the injury didn't help either but he's in a much better shape now than 12 months ago. 

Hope so.

[KBJ1]

If Duran gets traded or moves on, Jax becomes closer. If SP gets hurt or traded, Jax may get his shot at starting.

But in this world of gross inequality in team revenue, the top players will all end up with the richest teams. It is A league vs D league.

[chpettit19]

I don't think you need to establish a closer and have them only throwing in the 9th. But you do need to know when, where, and how your players succeed. Duran has significantly better stats in the 9th than the 8th and 7th, although the 7th are good numbers but in a super small sample (12.1 innings). It's been true every year of his career, albeit in very small samples each year. I don't have access to Duran himself and can't talk to him about what his thoughts and feelings are on the 8th vs 9th so I can't make as strong of decisions as Rocco and Maki, but, based on the numbers, I'd put him in a more strict 9th inning role and let Jax be the fireman as he seems to do quite well in that role. 

Ideally you just have enough arms in your pen that you can count on that you can lock guys into more defined inning roles because the difference between your best and your 4th best isn't significant, but the Twins need a few more guys to prove themselves before that's the case, in my opinion. If you can get to the point where you trust 5 or 6 guys in high leverage situations your pen decisions start coming down to who is on the most rest and you stop worrying so much about needing to use your top 1 or 2 guys in certain situations.

As for Duran or Jax being mad at how they're used and clearly going to leave because of it, that's not based on anything. If they were that upset, they'd demand a trade. Why would they wait until they're free agents if they think the Twins are holding them back? Buxton stayed even though people were convinced he hated the Twins. Sonny Gray has had nothing but good things to say about his time here even though fans were convinced he absolutely hated every second of it because the Twins were holding him back. Players are more empowered now than ever. If they hated it so much, they'd force their way out with 1 post on social media or comment in the media. The more likely situation is they'll leave because the Twins won't want to invest in them in their 30s.

[DocBauer]

From my best recollection, I've NEVER heard a single player leave the Twins organization...at least in the last decade or so...and then lament how they were treated, or used, or abused, etc. Unless someone can produce a SINGLE example of a player blasting the organization for the past several years, this is PURELY trolling because of a dislike of ownership or the manager.

Goodness knows there's enough of that to go around!

But let's get back to the OP.

It's very possible Duran wasn't quite 100% Duran in 2024 with travel interruptions and a ST oblique injury that just never had him QUITE RIGHT. But he was still very good overall in 2024.

NOTE: Even the very best relievers have bad games and bad stretches at times. 

But as the OP points out, Duran was as good as before the last couple of months of the season. So very good was again exceptional later on when he was in a groove and feeling like his old self. So where is there any reason for angst?

But even if Duran's very early 99MPH DOESN'T turn in to a CONSISTENT 101 that SOMETIMES hits 104, we're talking SUPER  HUMAN vs SUPERMAN velocity. Even IF a 27yo Duran can only MAX OUT to 102 but SIT 99-101, that's still amazing. MAYBE he needs to change sequencing a little bit. MAYBE he needs to just take 2-3MPH off his curveball and splinker to throw off the batters timing a bit.

But the debate is whether or not a "healthy" Duran can be very, very good vs SUPERMAN...a bit of hyperbole on my part to be sure...provides greater pen flexibility is it's own hyperbole. 

There's nothing wrong with the Twins 2 big back of the pen guns. The OP SHOULD have been, IF Stewart's shoulder really is good to go. Reports are he feels better than he has in a while. (I'll tuck that in a large envelope). But his throwing program is a couple weeks behind what is ideal. (Not sure exactly what that means). We HEAR that means not appearing games initially, possibly working on the side, and starting to ramp up later in ST to be ready.

And he might be ready. It's also possible he begins the season in extended ST to make sure he's 100% before he takes the mound for the Twins. We'll see what happens as it plays out. 

The pen is NOT devoid of talent and options, even IF Stewart needs a little more time. But really, the OP shouldn't have been about Duran "being healthy" and being even better than he was in 2024, IMO, it should have been about Stewart and the other arms in the pen.

[madtowntwin]

My wife and I suffered from the same virus recently this Winter which included a horrific cough. She broke 2 ribs and I strained intercostals on both sides of my chest. This was a few weeks ago and we both still suffer after-effects and many of the activities of daily living remain painful and often result repeat strain. Can't imagine getting on the mound with such an injury a trying to hurl a baseball with all the body torque involved. Here's to health and heat  for Duran this season....

[dxpavelka]

On 2/14/2025 at 7:39 AM, twinzcynic said:

I can't agree with this more. This is the human side of baseball that our twinz philosophy is lacking in. Imagine being excellent at work, one of the best in the world at what you do, and you've been placed in and out of a position of great prestige. This upcoming business year, your boss says you won't get that full-time promotion to that position, despite excelling at it in the past. Yeah, I'd be PO'd too and want out of that organization ASAP.

This started the day they told him he was no longer going to start.  Will likely cost him millions over the course of his career.  He'll walk asap and I won't blame him.

[dxpavelka]

On 2/14/2025 at 8:39 AM, NYCTK said:

I've said this before about Jax. Has Duran expressed interest in starting? Or that just you being speculative? 

It's also worth mentioning that it's kind of a necessity for a team that isn't in the top echelon of payroll to trade away closers before free agency. Based on his ability and age, he might be in line for a 4 year 80 million dollar deal. 

So, yeah, Twins will trade Duran next offseason (or this all star break if they're out of it). 

Edit: wait! I'm jumping the gun a year. He'll get like 8 million next year in arb 2 though so it is possible they start to shop him next offseason though. 

Duran started 80 of 84 career games in the minor leagues.  Was never given a chance at the big league level.  The difference between being an above average big league starter and even a star reliever is millions of dollars over the course of a career, maybe hundreds of millions. 

At least Jax got a shot to start but was never successful at it. 

[dxpavelka]

On 2/14/2025 at 9:33 AM, Major League Ready said:

We heard this same rhetoric with Buxton.  Many stated this with Buxton as if it was a fact that he would leave as soon as he had the chance.  It's actually more likely that the Twins won't want to extend Duran because they are not inclined to put that kind of money into a RP. 

Exactly my point.  NOBODY is inclined to put that kind of money into a RP.  There is a good chance that never giving him the opportunity to be a starter costs him tens of millions of dollars over the course of his career.  Would you stick around?

 

[dxpavelka]

On 2/14/2025 at 10:03 AM, jmlease1 said:

There's just no evidence on this stuff. It's all people reading what they want to see, usually because they have a bias baked in.

Let's take this in order: the starter issue. Would you rather be an injured starter who never lasts in MLB or a great reliever? We've never heard anything from Duran that suggests he thinks he got screwed by moving to the bullpen.

The "closer" issue: since Baldelli has never named a closer, claiming that Duran has been a closer for 3 years is a stretch. In Duran's first season, Pagan finished more games and had more saves. Duran was far and away the best reliever that year, but was he the "closer"? year 2: he's the best reliever in the 'pen, had the most saves, finished the most games. While never named the "closer", he fits here, though he still had 20% of his appearances before the 9th inning. year 3: not the best reliever in the Twins bullpen (Jax was better by basically ever measure) but did lead the team in saves. Increased the amount of times he entered before the 9th to 25%. Reasonable pick as "closer", but the role was less defined with Duran dealing with injury again, Jax pitching incredibly well, and Sands coming on. So he's the closer for more like 1 1/2 season rather than 3?

Going from being a "closer" to "high leverage reliever" being an insult. Considering the increasing numbers of teams who look at their best relievers as being something more than a 9th inning save situation only pitcher, being more of a fireman than a 1990's style closer isn't an insult, nor does it harm his earning potential. He's a dominant relief pitcher, and he's going to get paid. He'll have more value and more suitors coming for him if he keeps showing he doesn't need to be a 9th inning save situation only guy.

we've never heard anything form Duran about wanting to leave, so why exactly are you predicting that as soon as he can leave he's gone? because YOU don't like the way the Twins run their bullpen. Not because Duran is mad about it. He seems fine.

The trick for the twins is which elite reliever gets extended past their arbitration: Jax or Duran? Both can be kept this season and next, but going into their last season of arbitration if they haven't been extended one will probably be traded for value, but not because they're trying to force their way out.

How much do we really ever hear from Dominican guys in the media?

[dxpavelka]

On 2/14/2025 at 7:14 AM, Whitey333 said:

We sure could use a healthy Duran.  When he's at his best he is very dominating.  Last year he took 9 losses plus blew many save opportunities.  9 losses for a "closer" is disastrous.   As hard as he throws I sure hope he can stay healthy.  We need him if we are going to be serious contenders.  Go Twins!!

I love how wins and losses are now a terrible stat.  Until they fit our narrative.

[jmlease1]

21 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Exactly my point.  NOBODY is inclined to put that kind of money into a RP.  There is a good chance that never giving him the opportunity to be a starter costs him tens of millions of dollars over the course of his career.  Would you stick around?

 

He's an elite reliever. No one is signing him to be a starter at this point because a) he's an elite reliever, and b) the same injury concerns that led the Twins to move him into the bullpen in the first place still apply. Would flunking out as a starter for 1-3 seasons before moving to the bullpen have improved his career prospects? (If he's unsuccessful/injured for those seasons, the answer is a flat no)

I don't understand this projection that Duran is mad that the Twins moved him into the bullpen and wants out because he supposedly thinks he should have been given the chance to stay a starter and the big bad Twins made him relieve and ruined his life, so he wants to get away from here. There's literally no evidence for this.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

He's an elite reliever. No one is signing him to be a starter at this point because a) he's an elite reliever, and b) the same injury concerns that led the Twins to move him into the bullpen in the first place still apply. Would flunking out as a starter for 1-3 seasons before moving to the bullpen have improved his career prospects? (If he's unsuccessful/injured for those seasons, the answer is a flat no)

I don't understand this projection that Duran is mad that the Twins moved him into the bullpen and wants out because he supposedly thinks he should have been given the chance to stay a starter and the big bad Twins made him relieve and ruined his life, so he wants to get away from here. There's literally no evidence for this.

Nowhere did I say anyone is signing him to be a starter.  You ASSUME he would have flunked out as a starter for 1-3 seasons.  Do you really think HE feels that way?  And I never said he IS mad or that he wants out.  Nor did I say there is any EVIDENCE that he wants to get away from here.  What I HAVE said, and will continue to say is that when the opportunity to do so comes, he WILL leave.  So go ahead.  File this away.  And when you are able to PROVE me wrong, do so.  But I don't think I will be.  He'll never sign a contract here when he has free agency as an option.  Write that down.