Twins Daily's Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects: #1 Walker Jenkins, OF

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Almost nobody has more than 3300 hits. There's 11 people in the 150 year history of MLB. Willie Mays didn't have 3300 hits and neither did Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson or Cal Ripken Jr. You seem very certain about a very unlikely outcome.

And no less an authority than Paul Molitor, among others, have stated how unselfish Mauer was to play his career as a catcher because his ceiling was virtually unlimited as a batter playing in the field. Mauer was the only person ever named athlete of the year in two major sports when he was in high school and he was good enough to start as a freshman for any D1 major power basketball program in basketball as well. If you never saw him in person as a high school athlete and have seen seen  others of significant accolades you have no comparison. In multiple sports, particularly basketball and baseball, i have seen a multitude of stars up close and Mauer ranks amongst the greatest of athletes of my decades long career. Nobody can definitively state X number of base hits (mine was just a wild hair-ass guess), but the talent was there. Catching is so far removed from any other position that it is impossible to compare. Imagine if pitchers had to win 325+ games in their career. There is a reason so few catchers are in the Hall of Fame. If you have never caught a minimum of 100 nine inning games in a year for a half dozen years, you simply do not have a reference point. Mauer was among the top athletes in baseball for decade. His peers were in awe of him and he never really gained the level of respect locally that he did nationally. Yes, I'm way out there, but only because of the number of professional athletes I have seen as a comparison to Mauer. So, I guess you know where I am on that. Of course there are those who simply disagree and many people of those are still jealous about his contract. Fine.

Walker Jenkins has a long road to go and health is his number one challenge. He also has to evade the circus of social media and a society that has its sole god,  money, as a focus which can tantalize and ruin many a career in the hyper competitive world of athletics. I wish Jenkins well on his journey and hope he drags our Twins into a World Series or two .... or more.

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Strange, I get Joe Benson.

Very strange response from you. You are the king of all stats, buried up to your eyeballs with so many interesting comparisons, lists, and never-ending assortments of analytics, many quite relevant and others missing first person knowledge. Now you drop a name many of us are very familiar with. a guy who had great athletic promise but never accomplished much of anything except to flash potential in spurts. I'll leave the stats to you. Why choose Benson is my question? How do you see Benson in Jenkins? I'm genuinely curious. They are both hyped prospects, but I can't see it. What am i missing?

[weitz41]

I want to believe that Jenkins is the next in line for the face of the franchise type of player. Pucket to Santana to Mauler to ok a bit of a gap there...Radke? to Buxton to Correa/Buton to Jenkins?? 

If you want to nitpick there are players, you can throw in there for a year or two. Go nuts. Just a generic who's who.

Hoping it ends up that way..

[mikelink45]

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

Please don't use Arraez as a positive comparison. Yes, Arraez hits for a high BA. His offensive contributions pretty much stop there. He was fourth in MLB in BA  last year but could only manage a 1.1 WAR. He doesn't get many extra base hits, he doesn't run well, and as a result doesn't score many runs. He also has little value defensively. Jenkins will be better than that in every category but BA.

Sorry, but I will always be an Arraez fan - ask the Padres if they liked him.  WAR is not the end point for me, but I respect your disagreement.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Mauer was among the top athletes in baseball for decade.

Well duh, he is in the Hall of Fame. That doesn't mean he would have been a plus defender at CF or an elite SS.  I think he could have been an All-Star at 3B but we'll never know. 

Considering how good he was at drawing walks, to get to 3300 hits he'd still have to be an active player.

[Heiny]

I love the Walker Jenkins hype.  I totally believe he will be a star player for the Twins.  It's fun to predict superstar stats on a young player with great athleticism.  But maybe we should slow the roll just a little.  He is a 19 year old kid.  Don't put so much pressure on him.  Let him play his way through the minors and prove himself in the majors.  I fully expect him to be a very good to excellent Twin, but we may be setting ourselves up to be disappointed.  Someone said his floor would be Max Kepler.  If that were to be the outcome, I would be satisfied.  Max contributed fairly and I expect Jenkins to be even better but I think that most here would not be satisfied.  I remember a lot of hype for Gordon and Kirilloff which now turns out to be wounds.  Yeah, I'm pulling for Jenkins but, let's let the kid play.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree to a point that the Twins obsession with POWER is sometimes not helpful to our developing young hitters.  Austin Martin is the best example I can come up with.  His game is not power.  Yet the Twins have continually tinkered with his swing to add more.  I think Martin's game is hitting .285 and getting on base. and stealing/running the bases.  He'd be much more valuable with a profile like that as opposed to reaching 10-12 HR's.  

For someone like Walker Jenkins. I just think the power will come.  I like tony&rodney's comparison of Joe Mauer.  Except for one 28 HR season, the power was never there for Mauer.  But he had "acceptable" power.  And power, to me, is extra base hits.  Not necessarily exclusively HR's.  I think everything is there for Jenkins to be special.  Sure, coax a little more power into that swing.  But as he grows into his body, a lot of that power is just going to emerge anyway.  

[TopGunn#22]

Arraez is a good example in this discussion.  Ultimately, I think he's at his best hitting for a higher average.  Why mess up his swing trying to add 5 or 6 HR's.  Still, he doesn't run well and has no defensive position where he's outstanding.  He is what he is.  He's Matty Alou without the ability to play CF at an above average level.  Matty Alou was a good MLB player.  

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Arraez is a good example in this discussion.  Ultimately, I think he's at his best hitting for a higher average.  Why mess up his swing trying to add 5 or 6 HR's.  Still, he doesn't run well and has no defensive position where he's outstanding.  He is what he is.  He's Matty Alou without the ability to play CF at an above average level.  Matty Alou was a good MLB player.  

Getting a bit off the topic but I'm compelled to say that Arraez is an absolute unicorn, much rarer than Matty Alou. He makes contact and avoids strikeouts far and away better than any of his peers.

Last year his value was limited because he clogged the bases, didn't hit for power and played DH (mostly) and significantly his walk rate plummeted to 3.6%, far below average and much lower than his previous seasons.

[bean5302]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Very strange response from you. You are the king of all stats, buried up to your eyeballs with so many interesting comparisons, lists, and never-ending assortments of analytics, many quite relevant and others missing first person knowledge. Now you drop a name many of us are very familiar with. a guy who had great athletic promise but never accomplished much of anything except to flash potential in spurts. I'll leave the stats to you. Why choose Benson is my question? How do you see Benson in Jenkins? I'm genuinely curious. They are both hyped prospects, but I can't see it. What am i missing?

Reading the scouting reports (the athletic tools) you got Mike Trout, who is a first ballot HoF'er. My counterpoint was an equally unlikely and poor comparison (Joe Benson).

[bean5302]

Why do hitters need power? They don't, but a guy like Walker Jenkins who will be a fringy center fielder or more likely a good corner outfield bat, needs power to push his ceiling.

150+ Game Corner Outfielder with +5 runs defense would go something like...
.275/.350/.400 ISO .125 Low Power WAR = 2.5 WAR
.275/.350/.450 ISO .175 Moderate Power = 4.0 WAR
.275/.350/.500 ISO .225 Good Power = 6.5 WAR
.275/.350/.550 ISO .275 Elite Power = 8.0 WAR

All the comments about Luis Arraez... he played with a torn thumb ligament last year. The Lopez fans love to denigrate Arraez, but it seems he's a solid wRC+ 130 hitter when his thumb is fully attached.

[FargoFanMan]

On 11/27/2024 at 6:52 AM, tony&rodney said:

Does anyone else wonder if Jenkins will hit like Joe Mauer? Is that blasphemy or a template for criticism? Walker has a sweet swing and oozes athleticism.

"Hopefully, a run of clean health..." Seems like his ticket is health and repetitions. I'm looking forward to watching him next season. I think Twins fans should be totally excited about this guy.

I’ve been on that same thinking. The smooth LH swing. The incredible eye and BB/K ratio. The solid defense profile showing a complete player. Holding his own for his age and continually getting better when moved up. Hopefully a full season of AA and a mid July call up to AAA sets him up for a late season call up or at the very least a 2026 opening day starting OFer spot. This guy oozes Mauer with more power.

[FargoFanMan]

On 11/28/2024 at 10:32 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree to a point that the Twins obsession with POWER is sometimes not helpful to our developing young hitters.  Austin Martin is the best example I can come up with.  His game is not power.  Yet the Twins have continually tinkered with his swing to add more.  I think Martin's game is hitting .285 and getting on base. and stealing/running the bases.  He'd be much more valuable with a profile like that as opposed to reaching 10-12 HR's.  

For someone like Walker Jenkins. I just think the power will come.  I like tony&rodney's comparison of Joe Mauer.  Except for one 28 HR season, the power was never there for Mauer.  But he had "acceptable" power.  And power, to me, is extra base hits.  Not necessarily exclusively HR's.  I think everything is there for Jenkins to be special.  Sure, coax a little more power into that swing.  But as he grows into his body, a lot of that power is just going to emerge anyway.  

Absolutely! Everyone waited for the power from Joe but that was never going to be his game. Now that we can look back on his career we can see that he was never going to be a consistent 25-30 HR guy with his approach. I see more power with how Jenkins approaches AB’s and how the Twins approach development of that. But if he doesn’t and we get a career of 15 years at .306/.388/.409 with an average 124 OPS+ per season then maybe we should be thankful for that this time around. That would be a pretty good outcome for a 5th overall pick when we should have been 13th.

[tony&rodney]

14 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

I’ve been on that same thinking. The smooth LH swing. The incredible eye and BB/K ratio. The solid defense profile showing a complete player. Holding his own for his age and continually getting better when moved up. Hopefully a full season of AA and a mid July call up to AAA sets him up for a late season call up or at the very least a 2026 opening day starting OFer spot. This guy oozes Mauer with more power.

Seems like this coming year will be really exciting for watching Walker Jenkins. Everything will be predicated on how Jenkins adapts this year. Worth remembering that Mauer spent an extra year in the minor leagues because he needed more work as a catcher and the Twins had an excellent catcher in A. J. Gardy said on numerous occasions that Mauer was MLB ready as a batter as a 20 year old. Will Jenkins be ready at 20 or 21 years old?

I'm not worried about the entire idea of putting too many expectations on the young man. These elite athletes have had eyeballs on them since they became teenagers. Signing for $7.14 miilion as a top draft choice, you can be sure that Jenkins has extremely high goals for himself and has a system of checks and balances in his life to keep everything under control. 

[jmlease1]

On 11/28/2024 at 10:32 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree to a point that the Twins obsession with POWER is sometimes not helpful to our developing young hitters.  Austin Martin is the best example I can come up with.  His game is not power.  Yet the Twins have continually tinkered with his swing to add more.  I think Martin's game is hitting .285 and getting on base. and stealing/running the bases.  He'd be much more valuable with a profile like that as opposed to reaching 10-12 HR's.  

For someone like Walker Jenkins. I just think the power will come.  I like tony&rodney's comparison of Joe Mauer.  Except for one 28 HR season, the power was never there for Mauer.  But he had "acceptable" power.  And power, to me, is extra base hits.  Not necessarily exclusively HR's.  I think everything is there for Jenkins to be special.  Sure, coax a little more power into that swing.  But as he grows into his body, a lot of that power is just going to emerge anyway.  

Are the Twins obsessed with power or are they simply trying to get the most value out of the players they're drafting/acquiring? Martin hit for power in college (SLG% over .600 in his last two seasons) but it's most evaporated after he became a pro. Should the Twins be trying to see if they can add power production to a player as he develops if he's shown the ability? Or just to max his ability, knowing that slap hitters with no power have to have exceptional contact rates and control of the strike zone to be more than backup at the MLB level? If Martin's SLG is lower than his OB%, he's probably in trouble, even if he's running the bases effectively. They tried tinkering with Martin's approach in AA, and when it wasn't working for him, they let him go back to his earlier approach. 

Jenkins absolutely has the swing and frame to add more power to his game, but if he's hitting the ball hard to all fields and producing like he did at Cedar Rapids, they're not going to substantially alter his swing. If he starts swinging over the ball and hitting 2 bouncers to 2B a lot, they're going to work with him to elevate his swing more and hit the ball into the air more to produce more hits and more xbh.

There seem to be people who want to pigeon hole the Twins development staff into very narrow categories and make sweeping statements about what kind of hitters they "like" and "try to turn players into", but the reality is the Twins aren't drafting players trying to turn them into something entirely new, and they're not dogmatic about the players the acquire: they want talent, first and foremost. They'll draft college sluggers when they see an efficiency and available talent. They'll take high school kids when the talent is there. 

If the Twins are looking to develop power with their hitters, it's because it's a) one of the most useful skills in consistently producing offense, and b) it's also one of the skills that you've seen players develop over time as they mature physically.

[FargoFanMan]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Are the Twins obsessed with power or are they simply trying to get the most value out of the players they're drafting/acquiring? Martin hit for power in college (SLG% over .600 in his last two seasons) but it's most evaporated after he became a pro. Should the Twins be trying to see if they can add power production to a player as he develops if he's shown the ability? Or just to max his ability, knowing that slap hitters with no power have to have exceptional contact rates and control of the strike zone to be more than backup at the MLB level? If Martin's SLG is lower than his OB%, he's probably in trouble, even if he's running the bases effectively. They tried tinkering with Martin's approach in AA, and when it wasn't working for him, they let him go back to his earlier approach. 

Jenkins absolutely has the swing and frame to add more power to his game, but if he's hitting the ball hard to all fields and producing like he did at Cedar Rapids, they're not going to substantially alter his swing. If he starts swinging over the ball and hitting 2 bouncers to 2B a lot, they're going to work with him to elevate his swing more and hit the ball into the air more to produce more hits and more xbh.

There seem to be people who want to pigeon hole the Twins development staff into very narrow categories and make sweeping statements about what kind of hitters they "like" and "try to turn players into", but the reality is the Twins aren't drafting players trying to turn them into something entirely new, and they're not dogmatic about the players the acquire: they want talent, first and foremost. They'll draft college sluggers when they see an efficiency and available talent. They'll take high school kids when the talent is there. 

If the Twins are looking to develop power with their hitters, it's because it's a) one of the most useful skills in consistently producing offense, and b) it's also one of the skills that you've seen players develop over time as they mature physically.

I would agree. I also agree with most that as far as Martin is concerned he probably lost 2 years of development in 2020 and 22. 2020 the year he was drafted and the other thing that happened and then 2022 with the Twins tinkering with his approach to get more power out of him. It was admitted that he became frustrated and went back to a more contact approach. He was never a big power guy in college. He had one year in college where he put up good power. Other than that the guy was never that kind of player. A lost 2020 with the pandemic year. A lost 2022 trying to do something he was unaccustomed to and then a nearly lost 2023 with elbow troubles really hampered his development. Who knows what would have happened had the Twins just left well enough alone in 2022. Especially for a 5’10” 185lb super utility guy with exceptional bat to ball skills and a good eye at the plate. What kind of power were they looking to unlock? 10-15 HR power? 

[bean5302]

23 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

...Martin hit for power in college (SLG% over .600 in his last two seasons) but it's most evaporated after he became a pro...

Martin had mediocre power in the SEC. While you're talking about SLG, his AVG was about .400 so it stands to reason his SLG was going to look impressive. His ISO was about .200. 60 grade power if were were talking MLB, but fairly mediocre at the SEC. As I think everybody knows, he Blue Jays drafted Martin, and he was drafted for his hit tool, not his power tool. The hopes were that the 50 grade raw power Martin had would eventually turn into game power with a swing change to increase lift. The Twins tried to implement swing changes designed to lift the ball, but it failed miserably.

What does real power in the SEC look like? Brent Rooker's ISO was over .400 in the SEC in his draft year. His SLG was .811 the year he was drafted.

[DJL44]

On 11/29/2024 at 11:02 AM, FargoFanMan said:

Absolutely! Everyone waited for the power from Joe but that was never going to be his game. Now that we can look back on his career we can see that he was never going to be a consistent 25-30 HR guy with his approach. I see more power with how Jenkins approaches AB’s and how the Twins approach development of that. But if he doesn’t and we get a career of 15 years at .306/.388/.409 with an average 124 OPS+ per season then maybe we should be thankful for that this time around. That would be a pretty good outcome for a 5th overall pick when we should have been 13th.

This is such a Minnesota comment. "Just be glad we got someone who is okay, we don't deserve the best."

[FargoFanMan]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

This is such a Minnesota comment. "Just be glad we got someone who is okay, we don't deserve the best."

Joe Mauer was just okay? Who would you have wanted him to be? As a catcher that is. Because in WAR he’s 9th among catchers and his JAWS has him 7th. If he didn’t move from catcher which means he doesn’t sustain a career altering concussion and catches a few more years maybe he jumps into top 5 all time. That’s a pretty damn good outcome if you ask anybody anywhere outside of Minnesota.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

But if he doesn’t and we get a career of 15 years at .306/.388/.409 with an average 124 OPS+ per season then maybe we should be thankful for that this time around.

If Walker Jenkins ends up with a 124 OPS+ in a 15 year career in LF that will be a little disappointing. That's Bobby Allison, not Joe Mauer. That's a perfectly acceptable career but it's not Juan Soto.

[FargoFanMan]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If Walker Jenkins ends up with a 124 OPS+ in a 15 year career in LF that will be a little disappointing. That's Bobby Allison, not Joe Mauer. That's a perfectly acceptable career but it's not Juan Soto.

We all want excellence. I’d love for him to be Soto. He’s not shown that type of elite generational talent yet. This year will be a big year in AA showing a bit more of what he is. You focused on the OPS+ of my scenario instead of the batting line. All I’m saying is if we get a player like Mauer or even a Paul O’Neill, Maglio Ordonez, Paul Molitor, Todd Helton, Matt Holliday type of player isn’t that a good outcome? Do we wish that he becomes Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Barry Bonds or Hank Aaron? Yes. Is that realistic? Absolutely Not. I’ll choose to live in reality and enjoy hopefully watching a really good potential HOF players career rather than be angry and cynical that that same guy isn’t one of the greatest players ever. Let’s all hopefully enjoy it this time is what I’m saying.

[Fatbat]

On 11/27/2024 at 11:43 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Exciting! 

It came down to him, Dollander, or Teel for me. All look good so far! 

I was on the Dollander train until Jenkins fell to us at 5. He has allstar OF written all over him.  Development is the long term success key.  Push him hard and get him to the show but do it right.

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If Walker Jenkins ends up with a 124 OPS+ in a 15 year career in LF that will be a little disappointing. That's Bobby Allison, not Joe Mauer. That's a perfectly acceptable career but it's not Juan Soto.

You think it would be disappointing to have a Walker Jenkins turn into a 60 career WAR borderline HoF player??? That's the kind of career Bobby Bonds had. Duuuuuuude... He'd be in the discussion of greatest Minnesota Twins player in history if he never left the Twins. The only players to ever significantly play for the Twins who would definitely be better are Bert Blyleven and Rod Carew.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsbo01.shtml

 

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

That's the kind of career Bobby Bonds had. 

Bob Allison, not Bobby Bonds. Bobby Bonds was much better.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Bob Allison, not Bobby Bonds. Bobby Bonds was much better.

Bobby Bonds was literally in the link I posted in the comment you quoted. Bobby Bonds. Career OPS+ 129. 14 years played. 57.8 career WAR. Borderline HoF.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Bobby Bonds was literally in the link I posted in the comment you quoted. Bobby Bonds.

I mentioned Bob Allison as a comp. You responded wondering why I thought Bobby Bonds was a bad player. That response makes no sense in regards to my original comment. We're talking about two different players.

[bean5302]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I mentioned Bob Allison as a comp. You responded wondering why I thought Bobby Bonds was a bad player. That response makes no sense in regards to my original comment. We're talking about two different players.

Not what happened. You stated a borderline HoF career (similar to the 14yr, 129 OPS+ career Bobby Bonds had) would be a a disappointment for Walker Jenkins.

Rather than admitting how far out there your position was, you deflected by saying Bobby Allison, who only played in 1,500 games in his career, was a better comp for 15yrs at 124 OPS+. Of course even implying that a 35 WAR career would be a disappointment is unreasonable in a vacuum. 35 WAR careers are rare (top 3-4% in MLB history). Only 7 position players have ever accumulated more than the 34 WAR Bobby Allison accumulated in a Twins uniform. Carew, Killebrew, Mauer, Puckett, Hrbek, Knoblauch.

If Walker Jenkins turns into a career 25 WAR player like Max Kepler, he'll be an enormous success. I don't have a problem with people hoping for Juan Soto (who has more WAR than Ted Williams or Babe Ruth or Cal Ripken, Jr. through age 25), but those dreams aren't backed up in any kind of rationality. Jenkins' track record doesn't compare well with HoF type players.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Not what happened. You stated a borderline HoF career (similar to the 14yr, 129 OPS+ career Bobby Bonds had) would be a a disappointment for Walker Jenkins.

Rather than admitting how far out there your position was, you deflected by saying Bobby Allison, who only played in 1,500 games in his career, was a better comp for 15yrs at 124 OPS+. Of course even implying that a 35 WAR career would be a disappointment is unreasonable in a vacuum. 35 WAR careers are rare (top 3-4% in MLB history). Only 7 position players have ever accumulated more than the 34 WAR Bobby Allison accumulated in a Twins uniform. Carew, Killebrew, Mauer, Puckett, Hrbek, Knoblauch.

If Walker Jenkins turns into a career 25 WAR player like Max Kepler, he'll be an enormous success. I don't have a problem with people hoping for Juan Soto (who has more WAR than Ted Williams or Babe Ruth or Cal Ripken, Jr. through age 25), but those dreams aren't backed up in any kind of rationality. Jenkins' track record doesn't compare well with HoF type players.

Your painting realism over idealist dreams.   

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Not what happened. You stated a borderline HoF career (similar to the 14yr, 129 OPS+ career Bobby Bonds had) would be a a disappointment for Walker Jenkins.

No matter how much you want to put those words in my mouth that is not what happened. I said it would be disappointing if Walker Jenkins had a 124 OPS+ career over 15 years in LF like Bob Allison. Bob Allison was a pretty good player, but he wasn't a Hall of Famer.

A big part of the discussion above was regarding Jenkins not developing power. Bobby Bonds hit 330 HR and Allison hit 256. Both are probably optimistic if Jenkins doesn't learn how to drive the ball. Hal McRae is a more likely outcome, possibly worse.

I think it would be wonderful if Jenkins could develop power like Bobby Bonds. I think it would be wonderful if he could be a plus defensive RF like Bobby Bonds.

[Fatbat]

No offense @DJL44 @bean5302 but Mike Trout might be a better comp to Jenkins if he ends up playing 15 years in CF for the Twins.