Twins in 2025. Rotation, Rotation, Rotation

[stringer bell]

We didn't know it then, but the death knell for the 2024 Twins probably occurred when Joe Ryan went down. It forced weaker rotation options up the ladder and eventually the toll on both the remaining starters and the bullpen resulted in diminished performance for the entire pitching staff. The Twins pitching wasn't worthy of a playoff spot in August and September and the hitters couldn't bail them out (for sure!!).

Three rookies comprised the back end of the rotation in September with mixed results and too many short starts. Simeon Woods Richardson was in the rotation for most of the season. He started 28 games and logged 133+ innings, pitching to a 4.17 ERA. Not bad for a fifth starter, which is where SWR was for the majority of the season. Woods Richardson's stats don't show dominance, but he kept his team in games and showed some veteran moxie for a guy who performed the entire season at age 23. David Festa got a shot and was predictably up and down. He posted good strikeout numbers, didn't walk many, but allowed some big numbers. He worked 64+ big league innings. Finally, Zebby Matthews debuted after putting up great numbers in high A and AA ball (and a brief interlude at St. Paul). On balance, Zebby didn't look ready for the bigs. allowing 51 hits and 11 homers in just 37 innings. 

Assuming Ryan returns and continues to be a fine starter, the Twins will have a good front three--Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Ryan. It would appear two of last year's rookies would complete the rotation, although Chris Paddack could be considered. I suppose Louie Varland could be considered, but it didn't go well for him as a starter with the Twins last year. Who are the fourth and fifth starters and will there be anyone else under consideration when pitchers and catchers report in February?

[Linus]

Paddack and SWR with Festa starting in St Paul. Varland in the pen from the get go. Given payroll restrictions this is the best part of the team to roll it back. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't see how you can put Paddack ahead of Festa. I just don't. I'd have Paddack (if he is still on the team) as the long guy initially. As of now I'd have it as Lopez/Ryan/Ober/SWR/Festa in the rotation.

I'd certainly be fine with trading/adding a front line starter once again. We'll see if that happens. Otherwise I'd also expect a decent minor league veteran to be added to the mix who POSSIBLY could start at Saint Paul. 

I just can't put Paddack ahead of Festa to start the year as of now. I'm not even all that certain that I'd put Paddack ahead of Zebby. But if he is on the team, he could be a long reliever no?

[jaimedude]

Festa seems like a classic bullpen candidate. Gets tired after 3 or 4 innings, teams start to hit him second or third time through the order. He has enough stuff if refined, that to me he could become a dominate reliever. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, jaimedude said:

Festa seems like a classic bullpen candidate. Tires after 3 or 4 innings, teams start to hit him second or third time through the order. He has enough stuff if refined, that to me he could become a dominate reliever. 

You've made that determination after a handful of games.... For a top 100 prospect? 

[Vanimal46]

The changes I’m predicting here is Paddack being a salary dump trade. And they give serious consideration moving Jax back in the rotation. 

[Parfigliano]

History says they drag in some scrap heap reclamation project who is immediately injured and doesn't throw 39 total innings.

[Muppet]

Not saying it's the right move, but It is salary they won't be able to dump.

[jaimedude]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You've made that determination after a handful of games.... For a top 100 prospect? 

Not necessarily, but he Festa looks like he could have Closer to top level reliever stuff. I think he could be dominate in that type of role. 

[DocBauer]

I know I'm repeating myself, but I think Paddack is 50/50, maybe 60/40 to be traded. The FO hates letting go of depth assets, and Paddack...a little stronger this year, longer removed from past surgery...offers up decent upside for the Twins, or someone else interested. But he's potentially part of the equation here. 

Do the Twins feel comfortable with a 2nd year player and a rookie in the rotation? And what if someone gets hurt in ST? They might not have any choice as they may be forced to move on from a few guys to tweak the roster and be able to sign 1 or 2 FA. 

If Paddack is back, he's one 1 of 5 in the rotation to begin the season. If he's moved, Festa gets first shot at the last spot. I don't see the Twins brining in anyone at this point. They need an OF and a 1B that might have to come from outside the organization. You don't trade away a $7M rotation arm and then sign another. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 10/8/2024 at 8:35 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't see how you can put Paddack ahead of Festa. I just don't. I'd have Paddack (if he is still on the team) as the long guy initially. As of now I'd have it as Lopez/Ryan/Ober/SWR/Festa in the rotation.

I'd certainly be fine with trading/adding a front line starter once again. We'll see if that happens. Otherwise I'd also expect a decent minor league veteran to be added to the mix who POSSIBLY could start at Saint Paul. 

I just can't put Paddack ahead of Festa to start the year as of now. I'm not even all that certain that I'd put Paddack ahead of Zebby. But if he is on the team, he could be a long reliever no?

To take that a step further, he hasn’t stayed healthy for a full season since 2019. Would it be best for him and the Twins to transition to a short stint reliever?

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

1. Pablo

2. Ober

3. Ryan

4. SWR

5. Festa

SWR is going to make a jump in 2025. Fatigue got the best of him in 2024 but he had some moments for the Twins and kept them afloat when the rotation was a mess. 

Biggest ???, as it is with almost every team, is health and depth. Totally fine with those arms as the starting rotation but if someone goes down, it's white knuckle time.

As for Paddack, I'd love to see him the bullpen. Twins are lacking there but $7M is an overpay and some team (Dodgers, Yankees, Mets) will take a flier on Paddack and send the Twins a low-level lottery ticket prospect in return.

[NYCTK]

On 10/8/2024 at 1:16 PM, Mike Sixel said:

You've made that determination after a handful of games.... For a top 100 prospect? 

Is David Festa a top 100 prospect level talent? He's fine, but 150 IP in the high minors, with a 1.376 WHIP and 4.13 ERA. He's a quintessential 4th starter prospect. Valuable in his own right, but not top 100. His numbers are pretty pedestrian if we're being completely honest. 

[Mike Sixel]

55 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Is David Festa a top 100 prospect level talent? He's fine, but 150 IP in the high minors, with a 1.376 WHIP and 4.13 ERA. He's a quintessenti 4th starter prospect. Valuable in his own right, but not top 100. His numbers are pretty pedestrian if we're being completely honest. 

Yes, he is, was,  a top 100 prospect. Not sure if he's still considered a prospect or a MLB player now. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Yes, he is, was,  a top 100 prospect. Not sure if he's still considered a prospect or a MLB player now. 

Rookie eligibility ends after 50 innings pitched, so correct Festa is no longer a prospect.

According to this (it’s a bit dated, but looking at the 90s and aughts time period and then shake your head at Terry Ryan) 70% of top 100 prospects bust. That aligns with my assumptions before reading, and puts some context to what I perceive as a good rookie season from Festa. Top 60 in SP fWAR at 60 IP. 110ish rank in WHIP. He wasn’t dominant, but that’s a good foundation to start with.

https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

[tony&rodney]

David Festa will be quite good in his role as the #4 or #5 starting pitcher in 2025. He is the least of the Twins concerns. The rotation is pretty good and will be much better if Falvey can find some players to catch those ground balls and fly balls that should be outs. The Twins pitchers had among the fewest walks and were #2 in strikeouts in 2024, but the porous defense routinely had the pitchers shaking their heads. I have an up arrow next to Festa.

[LambchoP]

Our rotation should be fine if we can keep them healthy and clean up our horrible defense. I really think giving guys definitive roles would be a big help. You are the first baseman. You are the second baseman. Then let them go out and play everyday and get into a routine. No more of this bouncing around the diamond, pinch hitting every other inning. 

[Riverbrian]

Do not sign any innings eaters!!! 

Let the farm fill the spaces as needed. 

[laloesch]

On 11/5/2024 at 10:05 AM, LambchoP said:

Our rotation should be fine if we can keep them healthy and clean up our horrible defense. I really think giving guys definitive roles would be a big help. You are the first baseman. You are the second baseman. Then let them go out and play everyday and get into a routine. No more of this bouncing around the diamond, pinch hitting every other inning. 

that will never happen as long as Baldelli is manager it's his modus operandi.