Grading the 2024 Minnesota Twins: Hitters

[S Bart]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Then your expectations for a 38 yr-old, $6 million veteran were slightly higher than mine.

Who is going to play 1st base? Julian has not even been able to tackle 2nd base (Note that Farmer was in that role at the end of the year).  Miranda...he has taken a deep dive. Kiriloff  was the answer at the start of the season, but he faded fast. They have nobody with experience in that position. It is doubtful that Santana will be retained. 

Edited September 30, 2024 by S Bart
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[S Bart]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I expect 1B (or LF/RF) to be the best hitter on the team. Santana fell short of those expectations.

Most of the team including the manager fell short of expectations.

[BD57]

It's sad that Buck getting to 100 games is considered noteworthy.  Need your best guys in the lineup more than 5 times in 8 games, but that's what we've got.

Offense went seriously in the tank down the stretch.   For the year, C- / D+ . . . wondering about our approach to hitting.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, BD57 said:

It's sad that Buck getting to 100 games is considered noteworthy.  Need your best guys in the lineup more than 5 times in 8 games, but that's what we've got.

Offense went seriously in the tank down the stretch.   For the year, C- / D+ . . . wondering about our approach to hitting.

Tenth in runs scored gets a D? Tough grader. 

[BD57]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Tenth in runs scored gets a D? Tough grader. 

Lack of consistency - awful to start the year, hot for an extended stretch, and then back into the tank to close out the year.   

We needed the offense to pick up the pitching staff in the end, when injuries took their toll.  It didn't happen.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

A tad harsh with Farmer, Martin, Miranda, Lee.

I was thinking the author was generous with these 4 :)

[Old fox]

You people who know so much Correa and his health of his feet (called PF). This condition is is a much more severe and can last over several years or never cured totally.. Albert Plohoz has been affected  with (PF) for several years. I have had experience dealing with (PF) for several years and it’s very painful and affect other parts of the nerve system too. I am proud of Correa playing as well as he does.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Old fox said:

You people who know so much Correa and his health of his feet (called PF). This condition is is a much more severe and can last over several years or never cured totally.. Albert Plohoz has been affected  with (PF) for several years. I have had experience dealing with (PF) for several years and it’s very painful and affect other parts of the nerve system too. I am proud of Correa playing as well as he does.

Absolutely agreed, however… don’t throw stones when you live in a glass house.

[DocBauer]

Nick, I LOVE your work. And I think you're close here, but I will disagree slightly here and there.

BUXTON: He was slow early despite a few good games. Then he got RIGHT again...it takes time to "get right" when you've been hurt and missed so much time...before missing more time. But I personally object to those who are in angst to Byron ONLY playing 100 games. Playing 100 games in CF was HUGE coming off a MINOR second surgery that freed him up to do what he did this season. 

TD residential physical therapist Lucas Seehafer has stated that recovery from injuries may, and often do, affect other areas of the body that compensated for the previous injury. Buck's issue this year was a reoccurrence of a hip issue, probably as a result of his now cleaned up knee injury. Unless his hip has turned in to a chronic issue, we might see more games next year.

I suppose a "B" grade might be fair due to a bad early season, but I might go a little higher.

CASTRO: I think he's a keeper. A bad back and playing every day hurt his overall numbers. He just shouldn't have been expected to play every day, but he was out there. His "B" is fair, but skewed by team need daily.

JEFFERS and VAZQUEZ is wrong, overall, IMO. As a long standing champion of Jeffers, he really disappointed me this season with his bat suddenly going cold at times. I REALLY thought he had gotten his bat on track. And other than a couple months when he got hot, Vazquez was even worse than 2023. But the overall game calling and defense was still there for the duo. And when you reflect on their TOTAL PRODUCTION from the catcher position you get an OVERALL of 32 DBLS, 28 HR, and 91 RBI.

Yes, SOME of that production included Jeffers at DH, but it wasn't to any great degree. As disappointing as both were, the TOTAL production is EXCELLENT for a catching duo. As a combo, overall, and bats that were usually at the bottom of the order...understanding both on a hot streak batted higher...their collective should be a much higher grade.

ASIDE: If Jeffers actually FIGURES it out for good, he could be one of the best overall catchers in MLB!

JULIEN probably deserves his "F" grade. A low "D" at best. He suddenly went from a TREMENDOUS EYE batter batter with some BB and power ability to nothing. Even his vastly improved defense suffered. There's still a good bat and good ML player in there somewhere, but SOMETHING got messed up in his head.

LARNACH as a B+ is accurate. He's gone from a top 100 prospect with injuries and illness to a potential washout to a guy who suddenly started to figure it out and start to "figuring it out" this season, despite fighting turf toe and a late leg injury. He MIGHT just be on the precipice of taking the next step and building on this season. The approach we've been seeing is kind of what we've been expecting. His opposite field power is obvious. There's hope the pull power will kick in one of these days. If he can continue down the path he's on right now, he might be an "A" hitter in 2025.

LEWIS has all of the talent in the world! Unfortunately, he might be a victim of his confidence of "i don't due slumps" for a while, in some people's mind. And that would be a shame. He's just so damned talented, and has already established a performance threshold of early excellence, that the public and himself are expect excellence always. I think WE, and himself, expect too much at times. He's just needing experience to adjust. As great as he's been, we forget all the time he's lost previously in development. His "C" grade is fair for 2024.

I disagree with a D grade for Lee. I'd give him an INCOMPLETE for 2024. A back injury. RAKING at AAA, looking like a stud early upon promotion, then having a shoulder injury, and then coming back and being poor shouldn't give him any sort of real grade. IMO the defense plays at SS, and is even better at 2B and 3B. The talent and work ethic are there. The bat WILL PLAY eventually, though I'm not sure if it's more HR power, or doubles power, combined with a good AVG and OB ability, etc. But more time should be allowed. Again, he's INCOMPLETE in my mind.

MARTIN as a "D" is perfect IMO. He had a hot streak at one point, but other than a couple good plays here and there, he was below average defensively at ALL positions. He wasn't strong offensively against either side of arms. I NEVER thought he was going to be a major contributor after a half season of AAA ball in 2023, but I had hopes. And maybe he'll put in the offseason work as a hitter AND a fielder to make a difference for 2025. But at times, honestly, logic escaped me why the Twins didn't give the older Helman a shot to see if he'd be a better option? And I'm also starting to think a healthy Keaschall might not just bump Martin aside sometime next season. NOT SAYING Martin doesn't have some talent, but at some point that talent needs to step forward. 

MIRANDA was a lost cause in 2023. A healthy Miranda regained satus this year. Then he got hurt again and was OK, but not great suddenly. How can he swing this much? Bad luck? Or is he another Kepler where everything just WORKS when he's healthy but goes to pot when he's dinged up a bit? Man, if he's grown as a player with experience and talent that he's shown, and can overcome, you'd like to place him as a primary bat, mostly at 1B probably for next season, but he does, unfortunately, come in as a talented question mark. 

I agree with Wallner as a B+ overall. If we examine Wallner from his promotion in 2024, and what he did in 2023, DESPITE the really bad early season numbers we saw in a limited number of AB this kid looks like not only a keeper, but a potential stud for years to come. (Even for those who despise high K rate players) over a fairly brief appearance in 2022, his COMBINED quad slash line in MLB, including his poor, but limited early 2024, is:

.251/ .366/ .500/ .866

That's ALL STAR kind of numbers overall a full season, which he hasn't done for a full 162 games so far. And regression will probably settle in at some point. But then again, their is also progression due to experience and development. So it's safe to say, IMO, Wallner is either a really nice player, OR, potentially, a potential All Star player.

I'm not going to agree or disagree in nature about Correa. Offense and defense he was an "A" or "B" if you want to include injury. His defense and offense was a good as ever when healthy. He's only a downgrade due to injury, IMO. Just a shame he was on track for one of his best seasons ever before PF hit him hard.

YES, despite having a Nike deal for shoes, he changed to some New Balance cleats that made his feet feel better. That ultimately might cost him $M. But somehow, Nike, his sponsor, couldn't figure out a shoe that worked for him.

That speaks a lot about Correa in my opinion.

Correa might be a "B" overall for Nick, but I'm an "A" for production when healthy and attitude to get right trying to salvage the season.

 

 

[mikelink45]

This is a difficult prospect. First of all, grades should be based on expectations and performance. So Correa and Buxton would be downgraded by me. C+ is the max. We are paying them to be much more than just good players. In the twins world they are paid exorbitant. Doesn't matter what the rest of the league pays. As a twin we expected much more. And they were missing during the most crucial. When the team absolutely fell apart. 

I would downgrade Jeffers half a grade and raise Miranda half a grade.  

I think Lee deserves a grade you gave him and I would certainly reduce the grade for Lewis. Great that he had a wonderful start to the year, and I know injuries play into things by hitting, But when he came back we needed him to step up in the star realm that he has projected himself as a man who never does slumps. 

Wallner not only deserves his grade, but actually is part of the reason why we need to downgrade the front office and coaches as well. Yes he got off to a slow start, that happens. Most of our team did including our free agent signings. But they waited way too long to bring them back up after he demolished AAA.  

 

[Dave Borton]

4 hours ago, DocBauer said:

If Jeffers actually FIGURES it out for good, he could be one of the best overall catchers in MLB!

Last time I checked, Jeffers was throwing out 18-19% of runners. Way below MLB average.

[Doctor Wu]

Some interesting grades, Some fair, some a bit overly generous, plus some, such as the negative ones given to players like Martin, Miranda, and Margot perhaps a bit too harsh. But hey, as a collective group, they were mostly all underwhelming. The biggest disappointments for me were Lewis and Lee, plus the bizarre lack of hitting from Julian, IF we want to contend again, I think we need a BIG shakeup in the roster for next season, not only better pitchers, but batters that aren't flirting with the Mendoza line. 

[IndianaTwin]

17 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Then your expectations for a 38 yr-old, $6 million veteran were slightly higher than mine.

 

17 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

No issues with raising the bar, but that is a Pohlad issue, not a Santana issue.

Factoring in salary, the Santana FA signing was probably top 2-3 in baseball this past offseason.

Actually, it was $5.25 million, further boosting your premise. 😀

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I think we need a BIG shakeup in the roster for next season, not only better pitchers, but batters that aren't flirting with the Mendoza line. 

Good luck. MLB hit .243 this season. That means .250 is a good batting average.

[jmlease1]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Good luck. MLB hit .243 this season. That means .250 is a good batting average.

This is one of the reasons I prefer to look at OPS+, adding the league context helps keep things in perspective.

[GopherJeff]

A Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde season for the hitters as a group.
• Pre All-Star game: 5th in OPS, 6th in runs scored, (and 25th in SB)
• Post All-Star game: 22nd in OPS, 18th in runs scored (and 30th - dead last - in SB).

While some hitters had OK campaigns, there were/are no real stars on this team.

Consistency matters. The manager's job is to field competitive lineups. Rocco's grade here should be a D (and not an F only because the first half was pretty good).

Perhaps the offseason will rejuvenate their bodies and their minds about what it means to be a MLB player. Perhaps. I'm somewhat hopeful that the younger guys who will be the bedrock of the Twins for the next 5-10 years will mature and reach the level of performance that was projected for them.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

19 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Fair enough. If we're grading versus realistic expectations before the season began, then why does Brooks Lee, a 23-year-old rookie with hardly any time at AAA get a D grade?

Why doesn't Buxton get an A for his comeback season? My expectations for Buxton were that he would never contribute again due to a chronic knee injury and he blew past those expectations.

I gave Buxton an A-.  I thought he played very well.

IMO, rookies have no real expectations, you have to go more off of performance.  Outside of SWR, the Twins rookie crop this year was very underwhelming

[Fire Dan Gladden]

16 hours ago, S Bart said:

Who is going to play 1st base? Julian has not even been able to tackle 2nd base (Note that Farmer was in that role at the end of the year).  Miranda...he has taken a deep dive. Kiriloff  was the answer at the start of the season, but he faded fast. They have nobody with experience in that position. It is doubtful that Santana will be retained. 

You are making the argument to re-sign Santana for another year  (which I would be totally fine with if they can get him on another 1-yr, $5-7m deal. 

[Rosterman]

If I have two old school gripes, they are:

One: Stop playing guys at multiple positions. Find their strength in the minors and bring them up to play that position.

Two: Have a set lineup. I always feel batters feed off each other. You get a guy in front of you that will show a free-swinger a long at bat, to observe what a guy is throwing that day. You have someone who hits for contact with decent runners on base. You prep to be a lead-off hitter. You may adjust your swing being the 4-5 hitter. You are glad you have a paycheck if batting 8-9.

Going into 2025 is Wallner the right fielder and Larnach in left? Who plays 3rd. Miranda or Lewis. Or 2nd. Lee or Lewis? Or does Lee go to the minors and plays SS because Correa will be moved... somewhere. Nice to have Castro, but something is wrong with the team if he leads you in games played and at bats. 

[Brandon]

my evaluation of the evaluation of hitters.

Nick you were pretty spot on.  I think though on the bench players you grade them with higher expectations then you should.  our bench is actually one of the best in the league if you go an look at other teams benches.  granted ours is a big step back from last years bench where the bench was interchangeable with the starters which never happens.  

Martin had a solid walk and K rate and had 20 XBH in 233 AB HIs OPS is still low but his defense is also solid.  I would give him a C.

Margot was pretty bad.  even noticably lower than his career numbers.  if you take out his pinch hitting he is atleast hitting his career averages.  the drop in defensive ability was also disappointing as I am sure that was his calling card.  I give him an F for pinch hitting and C- for the rest of his performance and D to D- overall.

Farmer had a terrible slump to start the season.  3 for 47.  he had over a .740 OPS the rest of the way which is pretty good for a back up.  or you can say it was around .700 which is still ok for a back up then went hercules for about a month.  So I would give him an F through April 24th and a B+ after that.  and an overall grade of C-/D+

You got Velazquez right.  

On the position player side.  

Miranda finished with a .763 OPS which is in the C or C- range.  yes he was really good then really bad.  but his overall is in that range.

Castro also slumped really bad as his numbers of a .717 OPS is not very good.  I would give him a solid C cause he still made the All Star team and is versatile.

again all nitpicking.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Martin had a solid walk and K rate and had 20 XBH in 233 AB HIs OPS is still low but his defense is also solid.  I would give him a C.

Austin Martin grades out as the worst CF in all of MLB.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Austin Martin grades out as the worst CF in all of MLB.

Yikes. I am shocked at how bad he was, truly. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 minutes ago, Brandon said:

my evaluation of the evaluation of hitters.

Nick you were pretty spot on.  I think though on the bench players you grade them with higher expectations then you should.  our bench is actually one of the best in the league if you go an look at other teams benches.  granted ours is a big step back from last years bench where the bench was interchangeable with the starters which never happens.  

Martin had a solid walk and K rate and had 20 XBH in 233 AB HIs OPS is still low but his defense is also solid.  I would give him a C.

Margot was pretty bad.  even noticably lower than his career numbers.  if you take out his pinch hitting he is atleast hitting his career averages.  the drop in defensive ability was also disappointing as I am sure that was his calling card.  I give him an F for pinch hitting and C- for the rest of his performance and D to D- overall.

Farmer had a terrible slump to start the season.  3 for 47.  he had over a .740 OPS the rest of the way which is pretty good for a back up.  or you can say it was around .700 which is still ok for a back up then went hercules for about a month.  So I would give him an F through April 24th and a B+ after that.  and an overall grade of C-/D+

You got Velazquez right.  

On the position player side.  

Miranda finished with a .763 OPS which is in the C or C- range.  yes he was really good then really bad.  but his overall is in that range.

Castro also slumped really bad as his numbers of a .717 OPS is not very good.  I would give him a solid C cause he still made the All Star team and is versatile.

again all nitpicking.

With Martin, the stats aren’t very good, but -8 OAA reaffirms my view that his fielding was bad, to go with an expected bad hitting

Farmer overall hit as well as I expected and fairly close to historic, but his fielding fell off a cliff and only played 13 of 76 opportunities at SS. He was supposed to be backup SS and a “very good” fielder. He missed really badly on a defense first platoon hitter position.

It’s Christian Vasquez, not Velasquez. 
 

Castro slumped badly, but is it fair to expect him to play in 158 games and 3.1WAR above average hitter 108 wRC+ while setting a record for most games at most positions? That’s pretty impressive on the whole in modern baseball. Not an A, he couldn’t keep up the pace across the marathon, but dang.

 

[Mike Sixel]

CC put up the 26th most fWAR among all hitters in MLB this year, and gets a B.......11th highest wrc+ in all of baseball, and gets a B.....

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Tenth in runs scored gets a D? Tough grader. 

Buxton? Buxton scored 62 runs, Anthony Santander was 10th in the American League with 91 runs scored. 

Just thinking someone upthread got their signals crossed 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Buxton? Buxton scored 62 runs, Anthony Santander was 10th in the American League with 91 runs scored. 

Just thinking someone upthread got their signals crossed 

I thought I was talking about the "overall" grade in that post? If not, ooops.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I thought I was talking about the "overall" grade in that post? If not, ooops.

I dunno, I guess I would keep giving Buxton an Incomlete until he plays a bigger chunk of the season?

Its such a strain to have so many guys who need backups and constant moving around, and that doesn’t really show up in the stat lines, imo. So they need to find the 2025 version of Michael Taylor or Manuel Margot again and cross our fingers.

[S Bart]

Brought up through the Twins system and has stated that he shed tears when he left...Luis Arraez just won his 3rd batting title

Luis Arraez A+

[Brandon]

56 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Austin Martin grades out as the worst CF in all of MLB.

How did he grade out in the corners?  I didn’t know he was that bad in CF.  I thought he was passable but needed some work getting used to CF still I imagine.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

With Martin, the stats aren’t very good, but -8 OAA reaffirms my view that his fielding was bad, to go with an expected bad hitting

Farmer overall hit as well as I expected and fairly close to historic, but his fielding fell off a cliff and only played 13 of 76 opportunities at SS. He was supposed to be backup SS and a “very good” fielder. He missed really badly on a defense first platoon hitter position.

It’s Christian Vasquez, not Velasquez. 
 

Castro slumped badly, but is it fair to expect him to play in 158 games and 3.1WAR above average hitter 108 wRC+ while setting a record for most games at most positions? That’s pretty impressive on the whole in modern baseball. Not an A, he couldn’t keep up the pace across the marathon, but dang.

 

Austin Martin was clearly an average offensive player when compared to others coming off the bench.  In addition to what I stated above he was successful on 7 of 10 stolen base attempts and scored 41 runs in 233 AB so good numbers there.  Probably a good base runner for pinch running.  Yes his Defense needs work.  But he is still a C for a bench player.