Cardinals 3, Twins 2: Key Error Dooms Twins in 9th, Cardinals Take Series

[cmoss84]

Can someone please explain to me why teams put a heavy infield shift on vs. lefties when the pitcher throws 100+?

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

This is exactly why I hate rostering guys who can only hit lefties. You're making my point for me. Rostering multiple below replacement level players who you only want to hit left-handed pitchers and don't want to player a premium defensive position is a bad strategy. Because, as you laid out nicely, you don't actually get to just hit them against lefties and only play them on a corner. That's a fantasy. No team in the history of baseball has made it through a season without injuries and/or bad performance from their preferred starters (or so I assume). These guys will have to play against righties. It's a guarantee.

There are righties out there that aren't completely useless against righties. Or they can at least play a premium position at a gold glove level. The Twins choose to employ no- or bad-glove righties who can't hit righties every year. This year they're choosing to roster 2. And pay them a combined 10+ million. 

Can Severino hit .150 with a .485ish OPS against righties? Can he hit .240 with a .675ish OPS against lefties? There's your Farmer replacement already on the 40-man. Lewis can fill in at short or 2nd (they even said on the broadcast today he's been working pregame at 2nd). I'd bet with regular ABs all season long multiple of their lefties could OPS .675 against lefties. But instead they're rostering Farmer to do it while having him OPS .485 against righties. And to tie it all up with a bow and come full circle on "they'll have to face righties, too"...he has more PAs against righties than lefties. That means to ensure their lefties don't hit lefties they're giving a corner IF bat more PAs against righties while he OPSes .485 against them just to make sure he's there to OPS .676 against lefties.

Kyle Farmer is no longer a major league player. There's no defense for him being on the roster anymore besides their stubbornness with sticking to their preseason plan. And I'll actually be surprised if he isn't on the roster the entire season. Wouldn't be surprised to see him on the postseason roster even. They simply don't move off their preseason plans often. And I think it hurts them.

This is Falvey's team. It is what it is and never had anything to do with money. These are the guys Falvey decided on for 2024. Why? I'm sure we will never really know.

[tony&rodney]

37 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Point made - never seen it in 55 years of watching MLB nor any other level of baseball. My impression was once the guy was announced he was in for the AB, period. That’s why the opposing mgr. waits for that occurrence before going to the mound to make a pitching change. I guess the same for pitcher though I’ve never seen two pitchers switched in same AB either.

Once a pitcher comes into the game (umpire signals and writes in his notebook) that pitcher must face a batter (three batter Manfredball now). Managers have always had the ability to pinch hit for the pinch hitter. I have done it myself as a manager in the past and have seen this done from time to time in MLB. It can be easy to miss though because the switch is often done while the pitcher is warming up and missed due to a commercial or storytelling from an announcer.

[JADBP]

I’ve said this a gazillion times…. it’s really hard to admit, but at some point you have to put the old tired horse out to pasture.  She’s done a great job for a lot of years but there is just no more game left in her. It’s time to move on from Farmer.  He’s no longer capable of playing this game.  Period. 
 

The bigger problem is the inane inability of this team to admit it was wrong.  Sure it’s easy to dump Okert or Jay Jackson. They were really quite bad but they were cheap.  The problem here is that Farmer hoodwinked the Twins out of a lot of money in Free Agency.   The Twins nearly doubled his salary  without a track record to justify the raise.  Dumping him now just makes the front office look stupid.

well ….???

[mikelink45]

Quote

Kyle Famer was called to pinch-hit for Matt Wallner, and the Cardinals countered by bringing in a right-hander, Shawn Armstrong. This decision could be questioned, since Wallner has been hitting, and Romero had been struggling. Instead, you have a cold Farmer facing a fresh Armstrong with a key run on third. Famer ended up popping out on one pitch, and Ryan Jeffers then grounded out to end the threat.

 

This says it all - PH Rocco strikes again.  Arguably we replace our current best hitter with our worst hitter.  Way to go Rocco.  And I love Lewis as a PH, but for our other best hitter of this month - Larnach?

 

13 hours ago, BH67 said:

Eddy Julien deserves as much condemnation today as Gary Anderson did at the Metrodome 26 years ago – hardly any. In both cases, a single bad play resulting in defeat is only the symptom, and the offense squandering numerous opportunities to put the game away earlier is the cause.

Yes, the Twins defense needs to be solid more regularly. But the ongoing feast/famine cycle of the batting lineup is unpleasant, no matter if Correa and Buxton are sidelined. Twins pitchers have found a way to step up while missing a couple key arms. The bats need to do likewise.
 

Nice try, but Julien cost us one game in 162 - Gary blew a championship.

[William K Johnson]

Polanco makes that play in his sleep.   He probably makes the earlier play where Julien looked like a little leaguer.   Rocco said afterwards that "Julien makes that play 99 times out of 100".    If that is so, why do you replace him defensively in most games in late innings?

[mikelink45]

Richards, Festa, Matthews - all are doing great - the future of the staff looks really good, but the BP?  Cleveland is first because it has baseballs best BP.   We have Varland who should be in the pen, is there anyone else in the minors worth trying over our current 8,9 arms?

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Preach 

I'll keep preaching Mike. But... you'll give me a thumbs down eventually, 

Because what I'm preaching is why you keep Polanco in the off-season. Instead of trading him for lesser players. 

Yes... I fully admit that I would probably be complaining about Polanco if he was still on the roster hitting like he has been hitting. 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Lee would have kept hitting…..didn’t hurt his throwing arm, Farmer wouldn’t have been activated. That coupled with Correa being out has enabled him to stick after he was ready to come off IL.

Honest question. I'm not asking in an attempt to argue with you or anyone.

I'm asking because I don't know. 

Does the IL work that way? 

Can a team just use the IL this way? I've always suspected that the IL could be used this way. I can see how it would be helpful with roster management but then I think about the players union and I can't imagine the players union being on board.

If the players union isn't on board... front offices wouldn't be able to do it. 

Again... just a question. 

[karcherd]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Honest question. I'm not asking in an attempt to argue with you or anyone.

I'm asking because I don't know. 

Does the IL work that way? 

Can a team just use the IL this way? I've always suspected that the IL could be used this way. I can see how it would be helpful with roster management but then I think about the players union and I can't imagine the players union being on board.

If the players union isn't on board... front offices wouldn't be able to do it. 

Again... just a question. 

Farmer was on a rehab so if he had no setbacks, they would have had to activate him within 20 days once he started the rehab.  Lee's injury just accelerated the timeline.  He probably would have been back on the roster within a week of starting the rehab.

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Who are your saviors, in theory, from the minors?……..sounds like the same group that wanted to trade or DFA Vazquez 12 weeks ago.

You quoted Mike who was quoting me so I'll answer. 

I don't know. I won't pretend to know. 

What I know is that Margot and Farmer are under performing and Margot/Farmer will find themselves in the lineup because players are going to get hurt, Therefore Margot and Farmer will be asked to do things that they haven't been able to do and it could be October 1. 

This is what happens when you place players on the 26 man roster... turns out you need them. 

You can ask for the names of players who will be able to out perform Margot and Farmer... but you are doing that for the purpose of trying to talk people out of those names before they get the chance to become names. 

This just dips Margot and Farmer in cement and hardens them on the roster with a .632 and .573 OPS respectively. 

I won't claim that Severino or Keirsay could clear that low bar. I won't even claim that the Twins could have traded for someone at the dead line to clear that low bar. 

But I'll make these claims:

Nick Senzel with the Nationals barely cleared that bar and was DFA'd by the Nationals. for his efforts. Juan Yepez was Non-Tendered by the Cards, signed a minor league contract with the Nats and has soared past that bar. 

I picked the Nationals as a starting point with the intent of going to the rosters of all 29 teams and listing all of the surprising names of players who are clearing that bar. 

That's too much work... there are a lot of names of surprising players who clear that bar when given the chance to.

These players get the chance to because Nick Senzel was DFA'd and not deemed irreplaceable.

 

[SockNet]

Three candidates for worst loss of the season all within a week.

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This is Falvey's team. It is what it is and never had anything to do with money. These are the guys Falvey decided on for 2024. Why? I'm sure we will never really know.

I think the money had something to do with things, but bullpen and platoon bats are clearly a place this FO thinks they can save money. It's not a 1 year fad. It's part of their identity. I will never understand the Margot (once we knew he couldn't play CF), Garlick, Luplow types filling roster spots, or Farmer and Gallo keeping them once it became abundantly clear they were no longer MLB quality players and the team was trying to win a closely contested division race.

[h2oface]

Too bad Margot couldn't pinch hit, eh? All his numbers, except pinch hitting, show he is the guy, right Baldelli? May as well ignore the managing and go with the stat sheets again, and hope your batters learn to hit oppo arms ........ somewhere else, I guess.

This team is sure choking big time. And it isn't even the playoffs. When they choke this bad, one tends to forget how horrible the umpire calls balls and strikes.

 

[wabene]

12 hours ago, USAFChief said:

He pitched well. Really well.

But of course the most pitches he's thrown in a game in his professional career is 92. So he's out of the game after five, and you need 4 IP from the pen, minimum, every time he pitches. Same for Festa.

They don't throw innings in the minors either (105 across all of 2023, for example) so here we sit worried about innings in August. For most of our starters. 

I will never understand why they choose to not prepare their pitchers for the big leagues.

Zebby is very ready to pitch up to 100 pitches. Physically so is Festa. They are trying to ease them into the bigs by not having them face the top of the order a 3rd time and have their last memory of the start getting shelled with the game on the line. Then over time, as seen with SWR, they gradually lengthen the leash. 

By the looks of Zebulon, I would not be surprised if his leash was lengthened more quickly than the other 2 rookies.

*This is the Twin's strategy not mine. I don't have one, as a long suffering Twins fan I don't have experience with watching a team break in multiple young promising pitchers, lol.

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, wabene said:

Zebby is very ready to pitch up to 100 pitches. Physically so is Festa. They are trying to ease them into the bigs by not having them face the top of the order a 3rd time and have their last memory of the start getting shelled with the game on the line. Then over time, as seen with SWR, they gradually lengthen the leash. 

By the looks of Zebulon, I would not be surprised if his leash was lengthened more quickly than the other 2 rookies.

*This is the Twin's strategy not mine. I don't have one, as a long suffering Twins fan I don't have experience with watching a team break in multiple young promising pitchers, lol.

Sorry, nonconcur.

How can Mathews be "ready to throw 100 pitches" when he's never done it? Not once, minors or majors.

And Festa? Festa has 8 starts. Max pitches? 82. He has thrown less than 80 in 5 of the 8 starts. He hasn't gone more than 5 innings in any of the 8 starts. He had a 2 hit shutout, with 9 K's against the Cubs...and went 5 innings. 

Even Woods-Richardson has thrown 100 pitches ONCE this entire season. Once.

[Whitey333]

Very frustrating loss.  Too many of them lately.  Twins have now lost 5 of their last 7 games.  Twins are 10 games below .500 against teams with winning records.  Doesn't bode too well with a good but very injury riddled Atlanta Braves team coming to town.  

[MinnInPa]

why was Castro paying so far up the middle on those game winning RBI's. youve got a flame throwing Pitcherin Duran..and you think he's gonna pull something to the left side?? Castro should have been playing straight up position. i know he was trying to keep runner close to second..but he should have shifted back to his right when Duran started his motion to the plate. weak chopper got through that should have been out # 3. BUT...more so, Julien cost us this one..and the lack of hitting

[MinnInPa]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Came here to type this... There is no reason for Farmer to be here. He'll survive, though, and Julien and Martin will go down when Lee and CC return. Ridiculous at this point. 

i think Lee will be up today 

[Old Crow]

15 hours ago, S Bart said:

Rocco needs to take a hard look at what is best for the team. Julian made a bad throw to Santana the other day, has bobbled the ball several times recently, and now makes a grave mistake that cost the Twins a game. I sympathize that bad plays happen but one needs to review his multiple fielding mishaps lately. Regardless, Lee will be returning soon, and Julian will be delegated back to St. Paul. Yes, Buxton is a good player when he is healthy but "resting him" upon his return almost every other day is ridiculous at this point in the season.  Farmer is a nice team guy, but he has a .192 average and continues to play on a regular basis. Correa has planter faucitis which can reoccur every season.  A person can at least bat in this situation. The team has reached the brink and smart strategy, and thought-out decisions will need to be made. If not, the team will not make the playoffs. Baldelli's constant strange chess moves are mindboggling and costly at times. The team will expand the roster in one week. KC will be on the schedule the very next day and Cleveland will soon follow.  Ultimately, Baldelli needs to be strongly evaluated on his managerial decisions at the end of the season. 

Where is TK when you need him.

[thelanges5]

9 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Just saw Kepler was unavailable due to knee soreness.... How many days will the team drag this out before putting him on the IL?

They can’t afford to have a wasted roster spot. Put him on the IL and get Lee back up. No reason for Lee to travel with the Saints to Omaha.

[wabene]

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Sorry, nonconcur.

How can Mathews be "ready to throw 100 pitches" when he's never done it? Not once, minors or majors.

And Festa? Festa has 8 starts. Max pitches? 82. He has thrown less than 80 in 5 of the 8 starts. He hasn't gone more than 5 innings in any of the 8 starts. He had a 2 hit shutout, with 9 K's against the Cubs...and went 5 innings. 

Even Woods-Richardson has thrown 100 pitches ONCE this entire season. Once.

SWR has thrown 90+ pitches 7 times this year and many other starts have been high 80's. So in my opinion he is already there as a mid-rotation starter in today's MLB. At 23 the young man will keep getting better and stronger. 

You got me on Festa, yikes. Get that kid on a steady diet of cheeseburgers, double cheeseburgers. There is talent here but he needs to get some weight on that frame. 

Look at Ober. He has thrown 90+ pitches 9 times this year. Last year it was 14. This is modern starting pitching like it or not. (Don't blame the messenger, lol.) If Zebby keeps performing don't you think they will allow him to throw 90+ pitches every time out? I do. If so then he is prepared to be a MLB starting pitcher in today's game. If they upped the innings on these guys in the minors in meaningless games and there was a rash of injuries to our best pitching prospects, what would you say then?
These guys are all different and they are each handled differently. Look at the very young Charlee Soto's pitch counts vs Raya. Guys like Raya and Festa are limited because of their lack of strength. Soto gets more run because he is big and strong. Ober was limited because he couldn't stay healthy. There is some tightrope walking necessary and when the need is presented at the big league level, the guy getting the call my not be a finished product.

 

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, wabene said:

If they upped the innings on these guys in the minors in meaningless games and there was a rash of injuries to our best pitching prospects, what would you say then?

I'd say there's no difference to the rash of injuries occurring now. There might end up being less. Teams used to ask more, and GET more, routinely. 

And at least the ones that get through, or recover, are prepared to pitch.

 

 

[wabene]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'd say there's no difference to the rash of injuries occurring now. There might end up being less. Teams used to ask more, and GET more, routinely. 

And at least the ones that get through, or recover, are prepared to pitch.

 

 

At 85mph. With less spin. I want what you want, young talented pitchers who throw 100 pitches and go 6-7 innings or whatever. We want the same thing. I see pitchers throwing less pitches and getting hurt more. Why do you think that is? Because they aren't ridden hard enough during development?

[chpettit19]

47 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

why was Castro paying so far up the middle on those game winning RBI's. youve got a flame throwing Pitcherin Duran..and you think he's gonna pull something to the left side?? Castro should have been playing straight up position. i know he was trying to keep runner close to second..but he should have shifted back to his right when Duran started his motion to the plate. weak chopper got through that should have been out # 3. BUT...more so, Julien cost us this one..and the lack of hitting

It was actually Farmer at SS, not Castro. But the pitch he hit was a splitter, not a fastball. 96 MPH "offspeed" pitch. Odds are the fielders knew that. Farmer may even have been wearing the pitchcom device and heard the pitch call. But the fielders know what pitch is coming. And when you have a "flame throwing pitcher" throwing his offspeed stuff it makes sense to play the guy to pull as you expect the hitter to be geared up for 100 and get 96. 

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, wabene said:

At 85mph. With less spin. I want what you want, young talented pitchers who throw 100 pitches and go 6-7 innings or whatever. We want the same thing. I see pitchers throwing less pitches and getting hurt more. Why do you think that is? Because they aren't ridden had enough during development?

If they're throwing fewer pitches and getting hurt more, I'd consider the possibility I'm doing it wrong.

 

At the very least, if I want my starters to be capable of going 100+ pitches per start, and more than 5 innings per start, I'd train and condition them to that standard.

That way, I don't ask Mathews to come into a pennant chase and force him to do things he's never done before. Or shut him down. 

And need 4 innings minimum from the pen every time 40 percent of the rotation starts.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It was actually Farmer at SS, not Castro. But the pitch he hit was a splitter, not a fastball. 96 MPH "offspeed" pitch. Odds are the fielders knew that. Farmer may even have been wearing the pitchcom device and heard the pitch call. But the fielders know what pitch is coming. And when you have a "flame throwing pitcher" throwing his offspeed stuff it makes sense to play the guy to pull as you expect the hitter to be geared up for 100 and get 96. 

The infielders play where the bench tells them. They're not positioning themselves.

The Twins shift their IF on most hitters, most of the time.

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t care if they DFA Farmer by midnight - I just think looking at results and thinking they all should have been anticipated is unfair no matter who is making the decisions.

You are knowledgeable and I understand that you are not defending Farmer per se but more arguing the process.

Full disclosure -- I liked Farmer in the offseason. I was OK with him getting a roster spot. By the time, the off-season concluded... I was questioning the 6 million spent on him but I was OK with Farmer. He was a solid member of the team last year. 

I don't blame the front office for giving him a roster spot coming out of spring training. Front offices make these types of mistakes all the time. If they got it right all the time we would be in the world series every year facing the other 29 teams who will also be in the world series every year because they all were able to anticipate these types of things. 

They can't... so they need to make adjustments during the season based on season results. 

Margot and Farmer will not be with the team next year. They don't need to be something to over come this year.  

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The infielders play where the bench tells them. They're not positioning themselves.

The Twins shift their IF on most hitters, most of the time.

This is technically incorrect. The Twins "shade" their infielders 35% of the time. They shade against lefties 66% of the time, though. 

[chpettit19]

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t care if they DFA Farmer by midnight - I just think looking at results and thinking they all should have been anticipated is unfair no matter who is making the decisions.

I'm not suggesting every result should always have been anticipated. I'm suggesting any failures for Farmer and Margot against right handed pitchers at this point of the season should be anticipated. It's not April anymore. It's darn near September. They have new data. The data they used to build the roster out of spring training is irrelevant now. Use the data from this season. With an emphasis on the data from the last month or 2. 

Margot is at -.7 bWAR. He has a 77 OPS+. He's played in 111 games. His OPS is .632. He's 0-28 pinch hitting. His OPS against righties is .552 in 72 games and 150 PAs. I think it's more than fair to suggest it should be anticipated that he will be bad, especially against righties. I mean, his career OPS is .656 against righties in over 2000 PAs. They are anticipating him being bad against righties. It's why they try not to play him against them.

Farmer is at -.8 bWAR. He has a 62 OPS+. He's played in 78 games. His OPS is .573. His OPS against righties is .479 in 47 games and 94 PAs. I think it's more than fair to suggest it should be anticipated that he will be bad, especially against righties. I mean, his career OPS is .647 against righties in over 1300 PAs. They are anticipating him being bad against righties. It's why they try not to play him against them. But they pinch hit him last night in a pretty big spot knowing he'd face a righty. 

The results they seem to not be anticipating is that if you roster 2 guys who you don't want to face righties they're still going to have to face righties. More than they face lefties. They seem to ignore that very easily anticipated result. That's what many of us have a problem with. 

Matt Wallner is arguably their best hitter right now. The lefty on the mound was getting smacked around horribly. Kyle Farmer is arguably their worst hitter right now. The righty in the pen was warm. They actively chose to take their best hitter out for their worst hitter knowing that they weren't going to get the platoon advantage. The results of that decision should've been anticipated.