Planning the Perfect Trade Deadline for the Minnesota Twins

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins want to be buyers, and although that desire hasn't yet translated to action, a lot can change before Tuesday's trade deadline. Here’s how the perfect trade deadline plays out for the Twins.

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins, navigating the 2024 season with a mix of promising talent and critical needs, are poised to make impactful moves before the MLB trade deadline, to solidify their roster for a deep postseason run. The perfect trade deadline scenario for the Twins would involve several key elements aligning to address their primary weaknesses and position them as a formidable contender in October.

The most pressing need lies in bolstering their starting rotation. Despite a solid core, injuries and inconsistency have plagued the staff. Acquiring a high-caliber starting pitcher would be crucial. Ideally, the Twins could target a pitcher who provides immediate impact and has a track record of postseason success. Multiple front-line starting pitchers are presumed to be available at the deadline, including Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and Chicago’s Garrett Crochet. It seems unlikely for the Twins to part with the prospect capital needed to acquire those arms, especially from division foes. However, other options might come with a lower cost.

Max Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi stand out as potential trade targets, but the Rangers have not indicated that they are sellers—many of the rumors surrounding Texas point to them being buyers. Instead, the Twins should target Yusei Kikuchi from the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s on an expiring contract, the Blue Jays are willing to sell, and his peripheral numbers point to a potential performance improvement. It might be Kikuchi or bust if the Twins want to add to their starting rotation and not trade in the division. Backup options would include Jack Flaherty and Jesús Luzardo.

Secondly, adding depth to the bullpen is essential. While the Twins have some reliable arms, their relief corps could benefit from an additional high-leverage option. A trade for a left-handed setup man would help stabilize the late innings, ensuring that games are secured more reliably.

Currently, the Twins have utilized Caleb Thielbar and Steven Okert as the regular bullpen lefties, and Kody Funderburk is also seeing sporadic action. None of these southpaws has been able to lock down a late-inning role, with varying performances throughout the season. Bullpens take on an even more critical role in October, when starters are pulled earlier, so the Twins need a lefty upgrade by the deadline.

Tanner Scott is the best left-handed reliever on the market, and multiple teams are interested in acquiring him before the deadline. He has served as Miami’s closer this season and is on an expiring contract. Scott pairs a high-90s fastball with an upper-80s slider, helping him to miss plenty of bats. Last season, he struck out more than 30% of the batters he faced, and he’s close to that total again in 2024. The Twins must outbid other teams looking to add Scott, but it would be a massive boost for the bullpen that sends a positive sign to the clubhouse. 

To execute these trades, the Twins must be strategic with their prospects and minor-league talent. The team’s farm system is rich with promising young players who could be used as trade chips. Players like Marco Raya, Austin Martin, or Luke Keaschall could be appealing to other teams looking to rebuild. Scott will take quite the package, even on an expiring contract, while Kikuchi might come at a more reasonable cost. By leveraging these prospects, the Twins can acquire established veterans without sacrificing the core of their future.

Another aspect of the perfect trade deadline scenario involves maintaining internal harmony and chemistry. Any trades should be carefully considered to ensure they do not disrupt the team’s existing dynamics. Communication is critical, and the Twins' management should ensure that any new additions integrate smoothly into the clubhouse and the team’s overall strategy.

Finally, the front office's ability to act decisively and avoid overpaying for temporary fixes will be crucial. The perfect trade deadline for the Twins would involve making calculated moves that address immediate needs while preserving long-term flexibility. Balancing the present and future will sustain their competitiveness beyond the 2024 season.

---

How would your perfect trade deadline play out for the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

View full article

[Karbo]

I don't see Kikuchi as anything more than a 5th starter for the Twins. Sure they could use him, for depth if nothing else, but I wouldn't want to give up much in that trade. Scott would be a big plus in the pen, but with so many other teams interested, he will probably cost a lot for a rental.

[madtowntwin]

Jack Flaherty is supposed to be on the mound tonight for the Tigers and Cal Quantrill on Tuesday for the Rockies....Odds on either or both fulfilling their scheduled starts? Odds that either pitchers next start comes very soon against the Mets?? 32 hours or so will tell...The Cubs recent moves for Paredes and Pearson (both players controllable thru '26) are interesting as emblematic that you can improve your team for this year's playoff picture as well as next season as a whole. Tick, tick, tick....

[DJL44]

Blake Snell is the perfect deadline. Nobody else increases their chances of winning in the playoffs more.

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Blake Snell is the perfect deadline. Nobody else increases their chances of winning in the playoffs more.

Snell and Puk were the perfect moves.

They've already missed on one.

Clock is ticking, Falvine.

 

[madtowntwin]

My take on Kikuchi would be as a fifth starter as well....Until, hopefully, the Twins make the playoffs and then he comes out of the bullpen. How would that play? How many mph to his fastball?? His starter length would then play across multiple innings in potential relief role then potentially...Intriguing??  

[clone52]

I think people are underestimating Kikuchi big time.  His ERA looks rough this year, and he's been shelled his last 3 starts, but other than that, he's looked good.

His strikeout rate hasn't dropped.  His walk rate has improved a little bit.  His HR is normal.  His FIP is the lowest of his career, so it seems like his overall ERA is due a bit to luck.

He's also a lefty, so depending on the matchup, that could be really useful.

Against the Yankees this year, he's thrown 15.1 innings and given up 5 ER, which isn't too bad, although his last outing was his worst.

Against the Orioles this year, he's thrown 10.1 innings and given up 2 ER.

He had 1 great start against Seattle.  He gave up 2 ER in 5.2 innings against Houston.

I think he'd be in the top 3 pitchers in a series against the Yankees for sure.  At a minimum, I think he's the 4th starter in the playoffs, ahead of SWR who will likely be getting fatigued.  If SWR is doing well, having them split a game wouldn't be a bad idea.

[tony&rodney]

There are players available and Falvey has the resources to complete a trade. Will it happen? We shall know the answer soon.

[LambchoP]

Puk would have been the perfect acquisition. Only cost two mid level prospects, his salary is cheap, he's a lefty and would be a perfect Theilbar replacement, and he's controllable for two more years! Missed out on that one. Scott would be a great get, IF we don't have to give up too much to get him. I think Kikuchi should be our priority. Keep him in the rotation rest of the year. If he does great, maybe he starts a playoff game. If he's not as sharp, he could be a real lefty weapon in the bullpen which we need badly. Perfect deadline for me would be Kikuchi and a solid lefty reliever. Sure, I'd like Snell, Flaherty or Eovaldi, but those all seem like pipe dreams with the Pohlad s crying poverty again...

[Patzky]

22 minutes ago, clone52 said:

I think people are underestimating Kikuchi big time.  His ERA looks rough this year, and he's been shelled his last 3 starts, but other than that, he's looked good.

His strikeout rate hasn't dropped.  His walk rate has improved a little bit.  His HR is normal.  His FIP is the lowest of his career, so it seems like his overall ERA is due a bit to luck.

He's also a lefty, so depending on the matchup, that could be really useful.

Against the Yankees this year, he's thrown 15.1 innings and given up 5 ER, which isn't too bad, although his last outing was his worst.

Against the Orioles this year, he's thrown 10.1 innings and given up 2 ER.

He had 1 great start against Seattle.  He gave up 2 ER in 5.2 innings against Houston.

I think he'd be in the top 3 pitchers in a series against the Yankees for sure.  At a minimum, I think he's the 4th starter in the playoffs, ahead of SWR who will likely be getting fatigued.  If SWR is doing well, having them split a game wouldn't be a bad idea.

Paul Blackburn is the break glass in case of emergency Lefty pickup.  Don't be surprised..

[clone52]

7 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Paul Blackburn is the break glass in case of emergency Lefty pickup.  Don't be surprised..

As long as its not a Top 10 prospect, he'd be a good flyer if they don't get anyone else.

Even if the $$$ wasn't a problem, the prospect price for Blake Snell would be insane.  You're probably talking about either Lee or Rodriguez plus David Festa to start.

[clone52]

12 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Puk would have been the perfect acquisition. Only cost two mid level prospects, his salary is cheap, he's a lefty and would be a perfect Theilbar replacement, and he's controllable for two more years! Missed out on that one. Scott would be a great get, IF we don't have to give up too much to get him. I think Kikuchi should be our priority. Keep him in the rotation rest of the year. If he does great, maybe he starts a playoff game. If he's not as sharp, he could be a real lefty weapon in the bullpen which we need badly. Perfect deadline for me would be Kikuchi and a solid lefty reliever. Sure, I'd like Snell, Flaherty or Eovaldi, but those all seem like pipe dreams with the Pohlad s crying poverty again...

Great points on Puk.

Flaherty might be possible, but you'd have to pay in prospects.  Flaherty probably costs about $4.5M.  If you have the Tigers take Farmer, you save about $2M.

Twins give up:

Farmer
Austin Martin
Luke Keaschall
Zebby Matthews

[LambchoP]

1 minute ago, clone52 said:

Great points on Puk.

Flaherty might be possible, but you'd have to pay in prospects.  Flaherty probably costs about $4.5M.  If you have the Tigers take Farmer, you save about $2M.

Twins give up:

Farmer
Austin Martin
Luke Keaschall
Zebby Matthews

There's no way we should trade Zebby and Keaschal, especially for a rental. Zebby is our possible ace of the future and Keaschal has hit better than anyone else in our system. Gotta hold on to those guys, unless we're looking at a controllable starter

[Patzky]

15 minutes ago, clone52 said:

As long as its not a Top 10 prospect, he'd be a good flyer if they don't get anyone else.

Even if the $$$ wasn't a problem, the prospect price for Blake Snell would be insane.  You're probably talking about either Lee or Rodriguez plus David Festa to start.

Lorenzen from Texas to Royals. Just now.

[clone52]

3 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

There's no way we should trade Zebby and Keaschal, especially for a rental. Zebby is our possible ace of the future and Keaschal has hit better than anyone else in our system. Gotta hold on to those guys, unless we're looking at a controllable starter

I agree with you.  Just showing how they could get creative for someone even if they money doesn't work.

Mainly agree with Zebby as you never know about pitchers.

I'm fine trading Keaschal.  The Twins have a lot of depth in the infield, and while Keaschal may become an All Star, there is also a decent chance that his value has never been higher, so he might be a good time to sell high.  With Lee, Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Martin, Castro, the Twins have a plethora of 2B/3B types.  I'd rather use him for a non-rental, though.  Maybe Jesus Lazardo in the offseason?

[IaBeanCounter]

28 minutes ago, clone52 said:

 

Even if the $$$ wasn't a problem, the prospect price for Blake Snell would be insane.  You're probably talking about either Lee or Rodriguez plus David Festa to start.

I don't think Snell would cost that much in player capital because of his contract.  The buyer will hope that Snell will perform well, which will lead him to then opt out of the 2025 year, therefore a short term rental.  The risk to the buyer is that Snell gets hurt and doesn't opt out and the buyer is on the hook for $30 million in 2025.  (The Twins seem to have traded for a lot of pitchers who fall apart as soon as they land in the TC.)  SF has that risk now and probably would love to be out from under.

I don't see the Twins taking on that risk unless they can mitigate it in some way.   My opinion is that if Snell is traded he will bring, at best, one of MLBs top 30 prospects, of which the Twins have 3.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Snell and Puk were the perfect moves.

They've already missed on one.

Clock is ticking, Falvine.

 

Not Falvine's problem, his hands are tied.  We all know any move made at the deadline will be a neutral move at absolute best, but more than likely a net-loss. (Think Kepler for a RP saving salary).

Everything happening now is 90% a Pohlad issue.

[clone52]

3 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I don't think Snell would cost that much in player capital because of his contract.  The buyer will hope that Snell will perform well, which will lead him to then opt out of the 2025 year, therefore a short term rental.  The risk to the buyer is that Snell gets hurt and doesn't opt out and the buyer is on the hook for $30 million in 2025.  (The Twins seem to have traded for a lot of pitchers who fall apart as soon as they land in the TC.)  SF has that risk now and probably would love to be out from under.

I don't see the Twins taking on that risk unless they can mitigate it in some way.   My opinion is that if Snell is traded he will bring, at best, one of MLBs top 30 prospects, of which the Twins have 3.

That was basically my proposal.  Lee or Rodriguez, plus more.  I wouldn't do it either, even if money weren't a problem.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, clone52 said:

Great points on Puk.

Flaherty might be possible, but you'd have to pay in prospects.  Flaherty probably costs about $4.5M.  If you have the Tigers take Farmer, you save about $2M.

Twins give up:

Farmer
Austin Martin
Luke Keaschall
Zebby Matthews

Awful trade. Yikes. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I don't think Snell would cost that much in player capital because of his contract.  The buyer will hope that Snell will perform well, which will lead him to then opt out of the 2025 year, therefore a short term rental.  The risk to the buyer is that Snell gets hurt and doesn't opt out and the buyer is on the hook for $30 million in 2025.  (The Twins seem to have traded for a lot of pitchers who fall apart as soon as they land in the TC.)  SF has that risk now and probably would love to be out from under.

I don't see the Twins taking on that risk unless they can mitigate it in some way.   My opinion is that if Snell is traded he will bring, at best, one of MLBs top 30 prospects, of which the Twins have 3.

The issue is the Twins would be asking for salary as well, as they are unable to take on more salary,  increasing the trade compensation,  and risk.  

[DJL44]

The Twins are going to get outbid on Snell. Kikuchi may not be "perfect" but he's good enough. He's pretty cheap in salary, won't cost a ransom in prospects to acquire and he's better than any lefthanded pitcher they have. Tanner Scott is also a good addition and his remaining salary is negligible (< $2M) but he will probably cost more in prospects than Kikuchi to provide basically the same performance.

A good lefty could mean the difference between winning and losing a playoff series. Beyond Kikuchi and Scott there really isn't much available for rentals. Andrew Chafin is not exciting and Tyler Anderson is buying high.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, clone52 said:

Great points on Puk.

Flaherty might be possible, but you'd have to pay in prospects.  Flaherty probably costs about $4.5M.  If you have the Tigers take Farmer, you save about $2M.

Twins give up:

Farmer
Austin Martin
Luke Keaschall
Zebby Matthews

That is an overpay for the rental.   

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I don't think Snell would cost that much in player capital because of his contract.  The buyer will hope that Snell will perform well, which will lead him to then opt out of the 2025 year, therefore a short term rental.  The risk to the buyer is that Snell gets hurt and doesn't opt out and the buyer is on the hook for $30 million in 2025.  (The Twins seem to have traded for a lot of pitchers who fall apart as soon as they land in the TC.)  SF has that risk now and probably would love to be out from under.

I don't see the Twins taking on that risk unless they can mitigate it in some way.   My opinion is that if Snell is traded he will bring, at best, one of MLBs top 30 prospects, of which the Twins have 3.

If Snell finishes the season with an ERA under 4.50 and an FIP under 3.70, he's opting out. He owns a 3.34 FIP right now. 9 starts remaining. 48 innings or so. A 3.90 ERA and a 4.00 FIP for the rest of the season get him to guaranteed opt-out land. He won the Cy Young last year, and he's pitching better this year than last. The chances he can't pitch better than a 4.00 FIP are remote.

He will not cost a top 30 MLB prospect. That's insanity. BaseballTradeValues has Snell as 0 value (PTBNL), though he's certainly worth more than that. He's 100% not getting anything better than a org 5 prospect. Not happening. He can't receive a QO from SF, he's going to opt out unless he gets a serious injury and the Giants are not making the playoffs. Risk of injury or watching him walk for free. The Giants are pushed into the Luxury Tax and they'd like the reduce the burden.

[DJL44]

Yankees are reportedly making Nestor Cortes available. He has one more arbitration season left after this one. Would the Yankees trade Cortes for Max Kepler? That would give the Twins a LH starting pitcher and reduce the Twins payroll by about $2M which would allow them to add a reliever.

[clone52]

Nestor Cortez is an interesting idea.  Read the Yankees might be shopping him.  Heard they were interested in Tommy Edmon, who is gone, and I know that they need relievers.

Could they be interested in Austin Martin or Kyle Farmer?

Could they be interested in a rebound from Caleb Thielbar?

Could the Twins part ways with a RH reliever like Alcala or Stewart?

 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I don't think Snell would cost that much in player capital because of his contract.  The buyer will hope that Snell will perform well, which will lead him to then opt out of the 2025 year, therefore a short term rental.  The risk to the buyer is that Snell gets hurt and doesn't opt out and the buyer is on the hook for $30 million in 2025.  (The Twins seem to have traded for a lot of pitchers who fall apart as soon as they land in the TC.)  SF has that risk now and probably would love to be out from under.

I don't see the Twins taking on that risk unless they can mitigate it in some way.   My opinion is that if Snell is traded he will bring, at best, one of MLBs top 30 prospects, of which the Twins have 3.

How many times does it need to be said...Snell's player option would cost $15m in 2025. Another $15M in 2027.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, clone52 said:

Nestor Cortez is an interesting idea.  Read the Yankees might be shopping him.  Heard they were interested in Tommy Edmon, who is gone, and I know that they need relievers.

Could they be interested in Austin Martin or Kyle Farmer?

Could they be interested in a rebound from Caleb Thielbar?

Could the Twins part ways with a RH reliever like Alcala or Stewart?

 

Interesting....Kepler and Julien for Cortez and a decent prospect? Not sure I do that, but it seems fairish.

[clone52]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Interesting....Kepler and Julien for Cortez and a decent prospect? Not sure I do that, but it seems fairish.

After getting Chissolm, do they have any interest in Kepler?

[chpettit19]

37 minutes ago, clone52 said:

After getting Chissolm, do they have any interest in Kepler?

Depends if they want to keep Jazz in the OF where he's terrible or move him back to the IF where he's good. 

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

How many times does it need to be said...Snell's player option would cost $15m in 2025. Another $15M in 2027.

That's still $30m for 2025.  You may earn some interest on the $15m deferred, but you still owe almost $30m for a player that wouldn't opt out unless he were injured or pitching poorly in 2024.