The Guardians are Why Baseball is Great and I Hate It

[Hans Birkeland]

Honestly, what is their deal? And why do they keep beating teams with twice as much talent?

Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Have you ever played tennis against someone just one step worse than you? Not saying you’re Roger Federer and they’re Jerry’s tennis instructor on Seinfeld, but y’know, you have a real stroke to your shots, you can put some top spin on them, maybe you took some lessons at some point. And your opponent is just running around trying their best to block the ball back to you, using a racket they bought in 2006.

Anybody who’s played knows what happens: your good shots get returned back to you, and you keep hitting good shots back until you make a mistake. 

You lock in and start trying to hit winners back since nothing that's being hit to you is hard to get to, at all.

You get one in, you feel vindicated. This is gonna be a breeze.

The next shot you hit is just out.

You hit another good one, but your opponent just gets to it and is able to lob it back to you.

You try an overhand smash and it goes right into the net.

You lose the match, or set, or whatever you’re playing. You tried your best, but you just made too many mistakes. It happens; tennis can be a random game sometimes. But the pain isn’t over. Your opponent doesn’t interpret the results that way. They beat you, which means that in their mind, they are a better tennis player than you.

Au contraire, you say! You try to explain why your own mistakes caused the result, but that sure sounds like sour grapes.

You then think, I can explain this by focusing on my opponent. They can’t say they’re a better tennis player than you when their serve goes 45 MPH. Again, sour grapes, and a little vindicating to your opponent, who now thinks they dominate the mental game.

But it’s true! You know its true! You put the time in to become an okay tennis player. They didn’t!

Maybe it doesn’t matter who’s better. Maybe we just need to enjoy the game and stop trying to evaluate the games of you and your friends like you’re trying out for Wimbledon.

But you’re not trying out for anything. You’re just a fan of the Minnesota Twins watching the Cleveland Guardians tap the ball back to you, their old-timey pluckiness and outsized confidence sucking all the joy you gain from sports, while kicking you repeatedly in the balls and making you doubt your soundness of mind, as the events play out like some George Will fanfiction:

“Of course the Twins choice to insert their closer into the eighth inning would backfire, as our hero José "the Prizefighter" Ramírez steps to the plate. They said the shift rule would never need to be enforced, but they never met Carlos Correa.”

I mean look, the Guardians have holes all throughout their lineup; their second-best starter has a torn UCL; and their best starter is out for the year for a torn UCL. Their best young pitcher has a torn UCL. Their best fielders don’t play premium defensive positions. They still don’t have much hitting in the outfield. Their center fielder is a shortstop just pretending. But they know how to beat teams with more talent than them. As I write this, Cleveland has just beaten the mighty Orioles 10-8, after their starting pitcher went three innings and allowed six runs.

Last year, the talent disparity almost felt a little closer than it does now, considering Shane Bieber was available the whole year. Naturally, the Guardians won the season series and put a scare into the Twins long after the division should have been decided.

The year before that, they won four or five games against Emilio Pagán alone. And that was before the Twins lost 19 players (approx.) to season-ending injuries.

(It’s quite the opposite of the Twins’ parlays with the Yankees over the years, in which it is pretty clear, in most years, that the Yankees are in another class of talent. But the Yankees don’t play tennis; they play Calvinball or something.)

It’s like when Homer Simpson rises to the top of the boxing world because his skull is so thick that everyone gets tired trying to knock him out. The Guardians keep fouling pitches off, extending innings and making nice defensive plays until they look up and the Twins haven’t scored a run in seven innings, and Will Brennan’s two-run tapper down the line in the fifth has won them the game. The Boxcar Twins fall again.

Is it fair? It’s more than fair; the Guardians are operating with about $40 million less in payroll than the Twins have.

Is it good for baseball? Besides José Ramírez’s contract depressing third base salaries for a generation, I’d say it's nice to have a different fundamental approach to the game than most other teams. The fact that they are actually successful means we may get another Michael Lewis book out of the deal. It's fun to see a powerful team like the Orioles or Yankees succumb to death by a thousand paper cuts. If I wasn't a Twins fan, Minnesota-Cleveland matchups would be the absolute best, in terms of pure baseball content. Power versus singles hitters. Athletic Specimen versus 5'7" Kinda Chubby Guy. Two goofy brothers versus three first overall picks.

Is it good baseball? It’s incredible baseball. It's a football team winning entirely because of special teams and turnovers. It's a little blue-collar. It’s Seve Ballesteros combined with Robert Horry. It will make little sense, until we can start quantifying Confidence+ on Fangraphs.

Furthermore, the rise of sports betting has created a certain arrogance in certainty that the Guardians fly in the face of. What passes for analysis these days is saying  “Looking at the National League this year, there are thirteen teams that are close to the playoff picture, but it's the top six in the standings that have really impressed thus far.” Teams like the Guardians screw up that recent-results-based calculus, making betting experts and even MLB Network goons have to consider, “well, they are the Guardians.”

That’s beautiful. It would be even prettier if it stayed the [redacted] away from me and my own favorite team.

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[chpettit19]

The Guardians aren't a slap hitting team this year. They were last year when they couldn't score. They're 6th in baseball in ISO this year. 9th in slugging. 8th in homeruns. 9th in wRC+. MN ranks 4th, 4th, 6th, and 8th in those categories. These aren't the same old Guardians dinking and dunking their way to runs. They're hitting for power. And that's why they've gone from 27th in runs last year to 5th this year.

[silverslugger]

Another analogy would be the Iowa Hawkeyes in college football.  As a Husker fan, it's maddening.  They always have a recruiting season ranked in the 40's and always finish in the final 20 of the rankings.  Their offense is horrendous, they win with staunch defense and special teams.  They take players no good team recruited and turn them into NFL first round picks, especially at TE, DL, and OL.  The meat and potatoes positions.  Go Twins...and... Go Huskers!  

P.S. I might be a gophers fan if I didn't live in Nebraska in the early 70's in my formative years while they were winning Natty's.

[terrydactyls]

I love the tennis analogy.  I was "that guy" years ago.  I played once with a co-worker who had played tennis for his high school.  I served underhanded because it was the only way I could make sure it landed in the little box in which serves are required to land.  I also "bunted" back more balls than I swung at.  Between points, he kept yelling at me to hit the ball harder.  But I didn't for two reasons:  1) I didn't have the skills to hit the ball any harder and 2) because I was winning.  We never played again.

[Riverbrian]

I didn't know this article was coming. I've been doing some looking at Cleveland and was posting some elementary stuff on another thread. Stuff that would be more appropriate posted here so I'll repeat it here. 

For those who fear the young player. For those who like vets with a little track record. 

16 of the current 26 players on the Cleveland Roster have less than two years service time. 9 of those 16 players were listed on the MLB.com Top 30 prospects last year. 

To compare and contrast. The Twins have 8 players on the current roster with less than 2 years service time. 4 of those 8 players were listed as top 30 prospects last year. Cleveland is doubling the production of the Twins from the farm. 

The Orioles who most think of as a young up and coming team have 9. 

I'm not making a statement that youth is the way to go because look at Cleveland. It works both ways. The Rockies currently have 13 players with less than 2 years service time on their 26 man roster so youth isn't the answer at the edge of the mountains. 

Granted... since I'm looking at current rosters,.. the amount of youth on any given roster at any given point of time can be greatly influenced by the amount of injuries a team is dealing with, Cleveland for example currently has 5 guys on the IL who have more than 2 years service time which in theory provides 5 roster spots for players with less than 2 years experience to replace them.

However... With 16 young players on the roster regardless if that number is inflated by injury... Cleveland just rattled off 7 straight W's before losing last night so that influx of youth isn't costing them for the time being.   

The only conclusion that I can draw and it's a conclusion that I settled on a long time ago. There is no reason to be scared of youth. We don't need a boat load of vets to win. The thing to be scared about is bad performance regardless if it's coming from youth or coming from vets. After you move past the superstars of the game into the general baseball player masses that make up the bulk of most rosters. I believe that vets are just as capable of producing bad performance but they typically get to continue producing those bad results. 

The answer IMO isn't more youth... the answer isn't more vets... it's less tolerance of poor performance regardless of experience. The answer is less playing time for those struggling regardless of experience, The answer is less 26 man roster spots for those struggling regardless of experience. Youth that struggles can be sent down... Vets that struggle just stay and take you down.

Anyways... I'm not afraid of youth. Cleveland is doing really well with it. 

In case any one is curious on where the entire league stands on the less than 2 years service time scale. Here are how all of the teams in MLB rank using current rosters with no regard to how many injuries have been suffered by each team that will influence the current totals.  I draw no conclusions from the numbers posted below other than... I'm not afraid of youth. 

A's: 20 

Guardians: 16 (7-3 in last 10 games)

Red Sox: 15 (8-2 in last 10 games)

Royals: 14 (3-7 in last 10 games)

Astros: 14 (8-2 in last 10 games)

Pirates: 14 (6-4 in last 10 games)

DBacks: 13

Rockies: 13

Marlins: 13

Brewers: 12

Tigers: 11

Cubs: 11

Reds: 11

Padres: 11

Giants: 11

Angels: 10

Cards: 10

Nats: 10

Orioles: 9

Mariners: 9

Rays: 9

Twins: 8

Yankees: 8

White Sox: 7 (Yuck... This should be 26) 

Jays: 7

Braves: 7

Dodgers: 6

Mets: 6

Rangers: 5

Phillies: 4

[Hrbeks Divot]

Excellent article, Hans. I thoroughly enjoyed reading this!

[John Bonnes]

I just came here to say the same thing as Hrbeks Divot: I loved this story. 

[TopGunn#22]

This is REALLY INTERSESTING info Riverbrian !!  I would never have guessed that the Twins were so far down the line.  But I guess this is what happens when you cling to a vet like Thielbar who really started to slip last year and came into this year by far the most expensive arm in our bullpen, while being virtually guaranteed a minimum of 2 stints on the IL (and probably more) and/or sign a host of retread bullpen arms at the expense of a Funderburk or Alcala, or clinging to a Farmer or Margot when a Brooks Lee or Kiersey or even a Wallner could or should be playing instead.

This winter I repeatedly listed Cleveland as my main worry for defending our divisional title due to the fact that they always pitch effectively, and teams that pitch well are ALWAYS in games.  The difference for Cleveland THIS year is that Kwan is hitting almost .400 and Ramirez is mashing.  Top to bottom their lineup is slugging much better than it has the last couple of years.

The other factor is the EXTREME correction by Emmanuel Clase from last year to this.  Last year, Clase was much worse than he'd been in the previous couple years.  THIS year, Clase is having an EPIC season out of the bullpen.  Cleveland knows how to use Clase, and it shows.  Rocco doesn't have a clear cut role for Duran...and it shows.  THAT'S why Cleveland is running away with this division.  I hope the twins can rally and make it a race after the All Star break.  

 

[Doctor Gast]

'19 Twins broke the record for the most HRs in the season because of the "juiced ball". Ever since MN has made it their goal to hit HRs. Forget about small ball- defense, hitting the other way, hit & run, bunting, hitting to contact, stealing & taking an extra base etc. Everything was focused on squeezing extra HRs out of everybody. Thus the "all or nothing" philosophy was born. After the "juiced ball" went away the next year, many of those HRs turned into FOs. The SPs started to find clinks in the armor & SOs started to pile up. Last season the FO falsely credited the "all or nothing" approach for the teams' success. That gave them the green light to double down & to h*** with the SOs. This season the SOs piled up but the HRs didn't, the league had the book out on them & every team that followed the same creed.

HRs were down across the league so it was no wonder that CLE ranked high in slugging because they at least made contact. CLE has always put value on pitching, small ball, player's evaluation & development & giving their young players a chance to play. IMO the smaller teams that want to compete will have to evolve away from the "all or nothing" approach to be more like CLE. I hope it's not too late for us.

[BH67]

It would seem that Cleveland's first-half performance is an extreme outlier despite better power hitting, a plethora of young talent, a refocused Clase, and an expectation to win every night. All important for success -- but still unusual in the current degree. It will subside.

The Twins organization is demonstrating its player development abilities steadily and well, even if it took several years to bear fruit. I was impatient, but the wait has proven worth it. The rivalry with the Guardians could be pulsating in coming years. I still think it will be in 2024.

[Teflon]

The Guardians have the biggest run differential in the American League. They have a winning record in every conceivable split despite playing the fewest home games in the league. They are 23-12 against teams over .500. This is not a plucky little team standing up to a bully. This IS the bully. They're just winning their fights with refined martial arts while everyone else is just trying to throw haymakers.

[Eris]

Steven Kwan, the Guardians version of Luiz Arraez—except he can play defense—was drafted in the 5th round because he didn’t hit for power. By fWAR, he would be the best player on the Twins currently, has WRC+ of 182. 

[Doctor Gast]

20 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

'19 Twins broke the record for the most HRs in the season because of the "juiced ball". Ever since MN has made it their goal to hit HRs. Forget about small ball- defense, hitting the other way, hit & run, bunting, hitting to contact, stealing & taking an extra base etc. Everything was focused on squeezing extra HRs out of everybody. Thus the "all or nothing" philosophy was born. After the "juiced ball" went away the next year, many of those HRs turned into FOs. The SPs started to find clinks in the armor & SOs started to pile up. Last season the FO falsely credited the "all or nothing" approach for the teams' success. That gave them the green light to double down & to h*** with the SOs. This season the SOs piled up but the HRs didn't, the league had the book out on them & every team that followed the same creed.

HRs were down across the league so it was no wonder that CLE ranked high in slugging because they at least made contact. CLE has always put value on pitching, small ball, player's evaluation & development & giving their young players a chance to play. IMO the smaller teams that want to compete will have to evolve away from the "all or nothing" approach to be more like CLE. I hope it's not too late for us.

I'd like to add a quote from George Brett & a site to listen to an interview with him if anyone is interested.

George Brett on “launch angle” philosophy: “I get in arguments all the time with hitting coaches and players today . . . My bat [was] coming through the zone on the same plane as the ball. That’s why I didn’t strike out. Nowadays players strike out all the time, because their bat is in and out of the zone, on the same plane as the ball, for a short period of time. I will go to my grave vowing that my theory is better than they’re teaching now.” 3,154 hits. George Brett knows what he is talking about. Hope you enjoy the full podcast. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the

Here George Brett blames "launch angles" but IMO it goes beyond that, which creates holes in a person's swing. There's more I can say about that but I'll end with what Buck said recently about having his brain full of things to try to do that he loses the feel of the AB (my paraphrase).

Here-road-to-cooperstown/id1748842135?i=1000660144933

[Doctor Gast]

23 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I didn't know this article was coming. I've been doing some looking at Cleveland and was posting some elementary stuff on another thread. Stuff that would be more appropriate posted here so I'll repeat it here. 

For those who fear the young player. For those who like vets with a little track record. 

16 of the current 26 players on the Cleveland Roster have less than two years service time. 9 of those 16 players were listed on the MLB.com Top 30 prospects last year. 

To compare and contrast. The Twins have 8 players on the current roster with less than 2 years service time. 4 of those 8 players were listed as top 30 prospects last year. Cleveland is doubling the production of the Twins from the farm. 

The Orioles who most think of as a young up and coming team have 9. 

I'm not making a statement that youth is the way to go because look at Cleveland. It works both ways. The Rockies currently have 13 players with less than 2 years service time on their 26 man roster so youth isn't the answer at the edge of the mountains. 

Granted... since I'm looking at current rosters,.. the amount of youth on any given roster at any given point of time can be greatly influenced by the amount of injuries a team is dealing with, Cleveland for example currently has 5 guys on the IL who have more than 2 years service time which in theory provides 5 roster spots for players with less than 2 years experience to replace them.

However... With 16 young players on the roster regardless if that number is inflated by injury... Cleveland just rattled off 7 straight W's before losing last night so that influx of youth isn't costing them for the time being.   

The only conclusion that I can draw and it's a conclusion that I settled on a long time ago. There is no reason to be scared of youth. We don't need a boat load of vets to win. The thing to be scared about is bad performance regardless if it's coming from youth or coming from vets. After you move past the superstars of the game into the general baseball player masses that make up the bulk of most rosters. I believe that vets are just as capable of producing bad performance but they typically get to continue producing those bad results. 

The answer IMO isn't more youth... the answer isn't more vets... it's less tolerance of poor performance regardless of experience. The answer is less playing time for those struggling regardless of experience, The answer is less 26 man roster spots for those struggling regardless of experience. Youth that struggles can be sent down... Vets that struggle just stay and take you down.

Anyways... I'm not afraid of youth. Cleveland is doing really well with it. 

In case any one is curious on where the entire league stands on the less than 2 years service time scale. Here are how all of the teams in MLB rank using current rosters with no regard to how many injuries have been suffered by each team that will influence the current totals.  I draw no conclusions from the numbers posted below other than... I'm not afraid of youth. 

A's: 20 

Guardians: 16 (7-3 in last 10 games)

Red Sox: 15 (8-2 in last 10 games)

Royals: 14 (3-7 in last 10 games)

Astros: 14 (8-2 in last 10 games)

Pirates: 14 (6-4 in last 10 games)

DBacks: 13

Rockies: 13

Marlins: 13

Brewers: 12

Tigers: 11

Cubs: 11

Reds: 11

Padres: 11

Giants: 11

Angels: 10

Cards: 10

Nats: 10

Orioles: 9

Mariners: 9

Rays: 9

Twins: 8

Yankees: 8

White Sox: 7 (Yuck... This should be 26) 

Jays: 7

Braves: 7

Dodgers: 6

Mets: 6

Rangers: 5

Phillies: 4

Love your post & I agree with you Brian 100%. I have written about it. If you have holes that you don't have reliable young in-house players to fill those holes then yes get a good veteran. But if you have quality young in-house positional depth superior to any veteran you may get on a limited budget. You go with your superior in-house players like CLE has done.

CLE was highly criticized for basically standing pat. Because reporters prefer you making bad moves (then laude you) than have nothing for them to report about. If you made a few bad moves you had a good offseason if did nothing like CLE you had a terrible offseason. If you have faith in your good young players & give them playing time, they'll get better & add value to your team. If you pick up some inferior veterans, they come & go & add nothing to your team. Like you said just playing young players doesn't guarantee a good team going forward. CO is playing some young players & they pay their players well but they don't have a very good team it's because they don't have very good player evaluation & development. That has to go hand in hand.

[mrcharlie]

For me it is simple.  The Guardians don't give anything away.  They don't give away at bats and their pitchers stay focused.  Which means to beat them you have to stick to a plan. Twins hitters give away too many AB's (strand % is high) and pitchers get beat with their third best pitch.  

[USAFChief]

On 6/27/2024 at 9:42 AM, Riverbrian said:

I didn't know this article was coming. I've been doing some looking at Cleveland and was posting some elementary stuff on another thread. Stuff that would be more appropriate posted here so I'll repeat it here. 

For those who fear the young player. For those who like vets with a little track record. 

16 of the current 26 players on the Cleveland Roster have less than two years service time. 9 of those 16 players were listed on the MLB.com Top 30 prospects last year. 

To compare and contrast. The Twins have 8 players on the current roster with less than 2 years service time. 4 of those 8 players were listed as top 30 prospects last year. Cleveland is doubling the production of the Twins from the farm. 

The Orioles who most think of as a young up and coming team have 9. 

I'm not making a statement that youth is the way to go because look at Cleveland. It works both ways. The Rockies currently have 13 players with less than 2 years service time on their 26 man roster so youth isn't the answer at the edge of the mountains. 

Granted... since I'm looking at current rosters,.. the amount of youth on any given roster at any given point of time can be greatly influenced by the amount of injuries a team is dealing with, Cleveland for example currently has 5 guys on the IL who have more than 2 years service time which in theory provides 5 roster spots for players with less than 2 years experience to replace them.

However... With 16 young players on the roster regardless if that number is inflated by injury... Cleveland just rattled off 7 straight W's before losing last night so that influx of youth isn't costing them for the time being.   

The only conclusion that I can draw and it's a conclusion that I settled on a long time ago. There is no reason to be scared of youth. We don't need a boat load of vets to win. The thing to be scared about is bad performance regardless if it's coming from youth or coming from vets. After you move past the superstars of the game into the general baseball player masses that make up the bulk of most rosters. I believe that vets are just as capable of producing bad performance but they typically get to continue producing those bad results. 

The answer IMO isn't more youth... the answer isn't more vets... it's less tolerance of poor performance regardless of experience. The answer is less playing time for those struggling regardless of experience, The answer is less 26 man roster spots for those struggling regardless of experience. Youth that struggles can be sent down... Vets that struggle just stay and take you down.

Anyways... I'm not afraid of youth. Cleveland is doing really well with it. 

In case any one is curious on where the entire league stands on the less than 2 years service time scale. Here are how all of the teams in MLB rank using current rosters with no regard to how many injuries have been suffered by each team that will influence the current totals.  I draw no conclusions from the numbers posted below other than... I'm not afraid of youth. 

A's: 20 

Guardians: 16 (7-3 in last 10 games)

Red Sox: 15 (8-2 in last 10 games)

Royals: 14 (3-7 in last 10 games)

Astros: 14 (8-2 in last 10 games)

Pirates: 14 (6-4 in last 10 games)

DBacks: 13

Rockies: 13

Marlins: 13

Brewers: 12

Tigers: 11

Cubs: 11

Reds: 11

Padres: 11

Giants: 11

Angels: 10

Cards: 10

Nats: 10

Orioles: 9

Mariners: 9

Rays: 9

Twins: 8

Yankees: 8

White Sox: 7 (Yuck... This should be 26) 

Jays: 7

Braves: 7

Dodgers: 6

Mets: 6

Rangers: 5

Phillies: 4

What I notice from your list, Brian, is that 8 of the 10 current playoff teams are in the bottom half. 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd like to add a quote from George Brett & a site to listen to an interview with him if anyone is interested.

George Brett on “launch angle” philosophy: “I get in arguments all the time with hitting coaches and players today . . . My bat [was] coming through the zone on the same plane as the ball. That’s why I didn’t strike out. Nowadays players strike out all the time, because their bat is in and out of the zone, on the same plane as the ball, for a short period of time. I will go to my grave vowing that my theory is better than they’re teaching now.” Here-road-to-cooperstown/id1748842135?i=1000660144933

That was Ted Williams' idea as well - keep your swing slightly uppercut to match the plane of the incoming pitch. Hit dingers on low pitches where optimum launch angle = swing plane. 

If you max out on launch angle you will hit more HR and have more swing and miss. There are people who believe this is fine because missing the ball means you avoid making weak contact and have a chance to swing at the next pitch.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

What I notice from your list, Brian, is that 8 of the 10 current playoff teams are in the bottom half. 

I draw no conclusions from my list but in response to what you have observed from my list. 

If the season ended today. 12 teams make the playoffs (not 10) The Guardians, Yankees, Mariners, Orioles, Twins and Royals would represent the American League while the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Cards and Padres would represent the National League. 

11 or more is the top half... 10 or less would be the bottom half. 

That would place 8 current playoff teams in the bottom half: Cards 10, Orioles 9, Mariners 9, Twins 8, Yankees 8, Braves 7, Dodgers 6, Phillies 4

4 teams in the top half: Guardians 16, Royals 14, Brewers 12, Padres 11.

Although... I'd claim that the line between current playoff teams and potential playoff teams is currently a big fat line the size of the Yukon Territories.

The Rockies, Marlins A's and White Sox are out and that is about it so I am really hesitant to draw any conclusions from my thrown together list for everyone's enjoyment. The Red sox are good day away from a playoff team with 15 young players helping them have that good day. The Rangers could go on a heater and become that playoff team with DeGrom reducing them to 3 young players. 

I'd also contend that the difference between 12 and 9 young players which comprises 5 teams is a thin line the size of Highway 61... for revisiting.   

The 4 teams that are out: A's 20, White Sox 7 is a pretty large canyon.

I just don't fear youth. Logan Morrison is much scarier.