Paddack to the IL with right arm fatigue

[LA Vikes Fan]

34 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Not sure why you think Lee has the inside track to the roster ahead of Wallner... or honestly even Julien.
Wallner is on the 40 man.
Wallner's bat has been more productive than Lee's during Lee's tenure at AAA
Wallner has a spot in the outfield.

I don't think you can say that Wallner is doing better in AAA than Brooks Lee this year unless you limit Wallner's performance to the last three or four weeks and ignore how futile he was before that time. Their year up-to-date stats are:

Lee stats - 367/.421/.561 (.982), 14 SOs, 9 BBs, 4 HR's, 20 RBI in 107 plate appearances, 98 ABs. 13.08% SO rate, 8.4% BB rate.

Wallner stats - .242/.325/.538 (.863), 86 SOs, 27 BBs, 18 HRs, 49 RBI, in 250 plate appearances, 223 ABs. 34.4% SO rate, 10.8% BB rate. 

Lee is having a tremendous season at AAA so far, better than Wallner, without any real weaknesses. Wallner has been hitting better lately, which may be the point you're trying to make, but still has an elevated strikeout rate. Combine that with his 51.5% strikeout rate at the MLB level in 2024 and his 31.5% MLB strikeout rate in 2023, and you have a classic boom or bust guy that is hard to play on a regular basis. The guy who strikes out 34% of the time in AAA is likely to approach a 40% strikeout rate in MLB and that just isn't a guy you can play very often.

By the way, the statistics don't even count the fact that Lee is a superior fielder. He is a starting AAA SS who you can project to being an above average MLB infielder based on his profile. Wallner is an average at best outfielder with the proviso that he has a very strong arm.

Wallner's best argument for coming up instead of Lee when and if we get to a recall point is that he is on the 40 man roster and Lee is not. It doesn't matter that Wallner is an outfielder since Castro can move to the outfield if we bring Lee up as an infielder. The 40 man roster spot is solvable since it appears there is only 39 on the 40 man roster anyway and, if there really is 40, it is easy to move Brock Stewart to the 60 day IL since he's already been out almost 60 days. Besides, Stewart isat least three or four weeks from returning as he is not yet ready to pitch in games and will need a AAA rehab assignment. 

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't think you can say that Wallner is doing better in AAA than Brooks Lee this year unless you limit Wallner's performance to the last three or four weeks and ignore how futile he was before that time. Their year up-to-date stats are...

Lee has 14 games in AAA. Last 14 games, Wallner is better.

If you add in the entirety of Brooks Lee's experience in AAA and go back that many games for Wallner, Wallner is better since Lee couldn't even hold his own last year.

[Schmoeman5]

If Paddack really has arm fatigue. Why was he so upset when Rocco came out to replace him? I know he was getting knocked around like a redheaded step child. But a guy with arm fatigue wouldn't be fighting so hard to stay in the game. Sure. The competitor in him wants to fight through it. But not if your arms dead. Twins are playing with fire here regarding placing guys on the IL. He's  2 years removed from surgery.  They did it late last year too with Gallos phantom foot issue. When it was really "suckitis" affliction.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Lopez 5.1 IP average
Ryan 6.0 IP average
Ober 5.1 IP average
Paddack 5.1 IP average
SWR 5.0 average

The difference between the starters, other than Ryan, is pretty insignificant.

I was aware of the data. Looking forward I would have more confidence in the three. Others may see Woods Richardson equally reliable moving forward. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd prefer Festa, to see what he is (for next year also, not just this year). They need to get some info on these guys, IMO.

I'd bet money on Varland.

Good luck to Paddock!

[Vanimal46]

FWIW Hayes is thinking Festa gets the call. 

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

FWIW Hayes is thinking Festa gets the call. 

93rd overall on Fangraphs (they released the MN list today)......they really like him.

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Is it, though?

Of note is that Wisconsin of the Midwest League will be going with the “Udder Tuggers” nickname this weekend in honor of June being dairy month. 

 

[Patzky]

2 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Of note is that Wisconsin of the Midwest League will be going with the “Udder Tuggers” nickname this weekend in honor of June being dairy month. 

 

Milkman is at Camden though.

[DJL44]

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs (they released the MN list today)

Deserves a separate thread

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

If Paddack really has arm fatigue. Why was he so upset when Rocco came out to replace him? I know he was getting knocked around like a redheaded step child. But a guy with arm fatigue wouldn't be fighting so hard to stay in the game. Sure. The competitor in him wants to fight through it. But not if your arms dead. Twins are playing with fire here regarding placing guys on the IL. He's  2 years removed from surgery.  They did it late last year too with Gallos phantom foot issue. When it was really "suckitis" affliction.

While he is 2 years removed from his arm surgery, his 78.1 IP this year is more than he threw the last 2 years combined.  I don't think anyone should be surprised his arm is still getting back into shape, you see this often with guys who miss a full year+ coming back from TJ surgery.  I don't think they are playing with fire at all and letting someone still working his way back from surgery get a couple weeks off isn't out of the ordinary at all.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Lee has 14 games in AAA. Last 14 games, Wallner is better.

If you add in the entirety of Brooks Lee's experience in AAA and go back that many games for Wallner, Wallner is better since Lee couldn't even hold his own last year.

Kep and Larnach are both in tonight's lineup so I guess the point is moot for now.

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Deserves a separate thread

I posted the link elsewhere, I assume someone will write an article about it.

[stringer bell]

What is the extent of Larnach’s injury? He was rehabbing from a minor league IL stint when he was recalled in April, and has played in the field occasionally, but not consistently. I don’t see much discernible change in his running speed  

Is this something that won’t heal completely until he’s off his feet for a couple weeks? Something that will be there until it can be fixed in the off season?

Larnach has been pretty good overall,, shielded almost totally from left handed pitching, hitting the ball hard while striking out much less. 

[stringer bell]

Pretty good lineup in place. The lowest batting average belongs to…………Ryan Jeffers. 

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

If Paddack really has arm fatigue. Why was he so upset when Rocco came out to replace him? I know he was getting knocked around like a redheaded step child. But a guy with arm fatigue wouldn't be fighting so hard to stay in the game. Sure. The competitor in him wants to fight through it. But not if your arms dead. Twins are playing with fire here regarding placing guys on the IL. He's  2 years removed from surgery.  They did it late last year too with Gallos phantom foot issue. When it was really "suckitis" affliction.

While the Mets got dinged for stashing in injured players on the IL, I doubt the Twins are “playing with fire” by placing a two-time TJ surgery patient on the IL with  shoulder fatigue. With any measure of diminished velocity or range of motion or anything else, that should be enough. 

[Jocko87]

Isn't this the same thing Thielbar has?

[Patzky]

45 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

What is the extent of Larnach’s injury? He was rehabbing from a minor league IL stint when he was recalled in April, and has played in the field occasionally, but not consistently. I don’t see much discernible change in his running speed  

Is this something that won’t heal completely until he’s off his feet for a couple weeks? Something that will be there until it can be fixed in the off season?

Larnach has been pretty good overall,, shielded almost totally from left handed pitching, hitting the ball hard while striking out much less. 

The suspicion came from his absence in Oakland.

[stringer bell]

46 minutes ago, Patzky said:

The suspicion came from his absence in Oakland.

Larnach played in the game Friday in Oakland. They faced two straight lefties and had complete control in the Saturday game. As a lesser defender, there wouldn't be much call to use him in either game. 

[Shaitan]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Ober would be on normal rest Thursday. Same for Lopez Friday.

I'd guess that's what they'll do, with Varland going Saturday in Seattle.

It seems extremely obvious, based on the previous 50 games.

Naturally, TD is certain it will be a pitcher with 0 MLB starts this year.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

FWIW Hayes is thinking Festa gets the call. 

I'd be surprised, but let's hope. 

[stringer bell]

There are pluses and minuses for any of the four pitchers possible for taking Paddack's place. Festa is a high-profile prospect, Varland has at least a half season's experience in the majors and had a good five-inning start  and pretty good long-relief appearance on Father's Day. Boushley is on the 40-man and has been good and consistent at St. Paul and Dobnak is also experienced and is coming off two pretty good outings for the Saints. 

I think it will be Festa. He's gone well at St. Paul and it's probably time to see if he can get major league hitters out.

[DJL44]

Festa is the only one with potential to be better than Paddack. Let's see what he's got.

[Vanimal46]

36 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'd be surprised, but let's hope. 

Personally I see it as a great opportunity to give Festa an extended look for 3-4 weeks. Then if/when Paddack is ready to return, Festa can head back to St Paul with a game plan to work on the rest of the season. 

[USAFChief]

I don't think they want to add Festa to the 40 man yet.

We'll see

[bean5302]

 

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Festa is the only one with potential to be better than Paddack. Let's see what he's got.

I'd take Matthews over him right now, TBH

[Vanimal46]

Festa was scratched from his scheduled start today for St Paul, so… It’s happening?!

[Patzky]

57 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Festa was scratched from his scheduled start today for St Paul, so… It’s happening?!

The word in the street is.. likely so. Probably keep Henriquez for bullpen depth tonight and then make room for Festa tomorrow. If Henriquez or Thielbar can impact the decision by their performances tonight, the call should be simple. I expect them both to pitch tonight,  game permitting.

 

So 40 percent of our games will be parties.. Pablo Day and Festaval.

[Patzky]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

I'd take Matthews over him right now, TBH

Think Zebby might go to St Paul if Festa goes to the bigs?

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

20 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

FWIW Hayes is thinking Festa gets the call. 

Just a side note, but interesting - less than 24 hours than Hayes' tweet mentions Festa is ranked #100 on MLB.com's global list, he's now ranked #99. Some player ahead of him must have graduated out of rookie/prospect eligibility yesterday?