Trevor Larnach is Doing Everything the Twins Needed

[Ted Schwerzler]

As a former first-round pick by the Minnesota Twins, Trevor Larnach has had top prospect status, and lost it. Promoted early this season and expected to make an immediate contribution, though, he is (finally) doing everything the franchise has hoped for from him.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

As a former first-round pick by the Minnesota Twins, Trevor Larnach has had top prospect status, and lost it. Promoted early this season and expected to make an immediate contribution, though, he is (finally) doing everything the franchise has hoped for from him.

Late in spring training, Trevor Larnach was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul. It wasn’t an unexpected result after the year rookie Matt Wallner had in 2023, but it signified another setback for the career of the 2018 first-round pick. When Wallner continued to struggle (as he did most of the spring), though, Larnach was promoted directly from a rehab assignment at Single-A Fort Myers to the majors.

As they brought him back to the big leagues, the Twins needed to see a few different things from Larnach. Most importantly, he needed to prove that he could handle more than fastballs. We have seen him do that only in brief bursts during his career, and it has often been surrounded by periods of injury or disastrous slump.

It's only been a few weeks since Larnach got the call, but so far, he's checking all the boxes that he needed to check in order to reestablish himself as part of the team's long-term plan.

The outfielder is batting .328 with an .871 OPS. Three home runs in that brief a stretch put him on a pace to blow by previous career highs; he's doing consistent damage. While his walk rate isn’t where it has been, Larnach is striking out more than 10% less often, and his hard-hit rate is over 50% for the first time in his career.

There is some smoke and mirrors to his production, with an out-of-whack BABIP, but Larnach has increased his average exit velocity by more than 4 mph this season. He hasn’t changed a ton with regard to his spray chart, but he's hit a few balls solidly to left-center field, maintaining a threat to all fields.

Maybe most impressively, all of this has taken place against a career-low 31% fastballs. The book has always been that Larnach will destroy heat, but can’t hit breaking or offspeed pitches. Right now, though, he’s producing impressively despite seeing mostly junk.

Larnach has some room to zone up and make things work in a more sustainable way. Right now, he is chasing a bit more than his historical norm, and he’s swinging at nearly 50% of the pitches he sees, overall. His contact rates are solid, but if he can be a bit more picky as to which pitches he attacks, the optimal results he has shown can be expected to hold--or even improve.

It’s fair to note that three weeks still isn’t a significant sample size, and Wallner starting to come around at Triple-A may provide a bit of tension to keep it going. With a player whose track record is inconsistent, a wait-and-see approach is always a wise one. The process has changed this time around, though, and that makes the outcomes feel more earned and portentous.

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[Oldgoat_MN]

I was excited when they drafted him. Then I had pretty much given up on him learning to hit breaking balls.

Really fun to see him producing for the team. If he can keep this up we have another slot in the lineup that is truly dangerous. 

[jorgenswest]

I would like to see him get a few starts against lefties.

I have wondered why Kirilloff is starting in the outfield with Larnach at DH. Is Kirilloff a better outfielder? That wasn’t my perception entering the season.

[Ted Schwerzler]

28 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would like to see him get a few starts against lefties.

I have wondered why Kirilloff is starting in the outfield with Larnach at DH. Is Kirilloff a better outfielder? That wasn’t my perception entering the season.

The amount of DH starts for Larnach has been curious for me too. I don't know that Kirilloff is truly a good defender anywhere, and Larnach's arm isn't bad.

[DocBauer]

If I had to pick who I think is still going to be the better, more dangerous and productive hitter between Wallner and Larnach, I think I'd still predict Wallner. But that doesn't mean I'm not excited about what Larnach is doing, or that there isn't room for both of them.

On the one hand, we're talking a SSS, as has been pointed out. Also pointed out is a pretty high BABIP that's going to inevitably come down to earth a bit. But on the other hand, Larnach is striking out less, showing more power, while seeing a SIGNIFICANT drop in fastballs being presented to him. That tells me he's grown and matured as a hitter and for the most part, what we're seeing is not an illusion, just natural progress from a former top prospect who STILL has less than 800 ML PA in his career.

(As to Kirilloff playing more OF than Larnach, I believe part of that was Larnach still having some issues with his toe, or at least having the toe be protected a bit longer.)

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

The amount of DH starts for Larnach has been curious for me too. I don't know that Kirilloff is truly a good defender anywhere, and Larnach's arm isn't bad.

Larnach had Turf Toe and that's why he was DHing.

[Riverbrian]

43 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would like to see him get a few starts against lefties.

I have wondered why Kirilloff is starting in the outfield with Larnach at DH. Is Kirilloff a better outfielder? That wasn’t my perception entering the season.

He has a toe injury that is keeping him out of the field. 

[bean5302]

Larnach is utterly locked in on fastballs, but unlike in years past, it's almost any type of fastball. Sinkers and cutters are getting hit, too. The split-finger still beats him, and the changeup remains a black hole, but we're still dealing with small sample sizes.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I had advocated for Larnach get another shot & kind of felt sorry for Larnach to be rushed up to MLB so soon. But he showed me that he was more than ready. He changed his swing & he's really cooking, I wouldn't change a thing. He's become a very dependable hitter. I'm super surprised by his transformation & expect good things from him.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

If I had to pick who I think is still going to be the better, more dangerous and productive hitter between Wallner and Larnach, I think I'd still predict Wallner.

[Karbo]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I would like to see him get a few starts against lefties.

I have wondered why Kirilloff is starting in the outfield with Larnach at DH. Is Kirilloff a better outfielder? That wasn’t my perception entering the season.

they say he is still having turf toe problems

[jorgenswest]

25 minutes ago, Karbo said:

they say he is still having turf toe problems

Thanks. That makes it more difficult to get him in the line up Vazquez is catching. They probably also wanted to avoid Toronto’s turf which might be where I noticed Kirilloff in left field as opposed to Larnach.

[Parfigliano]

Trevor has snapped to the fact that life is better on the Minnie side of St Paul.

[wabene]

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

Pam is a trouble maker. She is probably behind Alcala getting sent down.

[LambchoP]

He has been fun to watch. I wish Rocco wasn't so obsessed with platooning so not only Larnach but Julien and Kiriloff would get more at bats and the chance to  hit. If none of these young lefties never get the opportunity to hit LH pitchers, how are they ever supposed to improve? This is especially frustrating when these guys are on the bench in favor of Margot and Farmer who are absolute black holes in the lineup, but Rocco continues to play them solely because they hit right handed. Frustrating...

[USAFChief]

18 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I had advocated for Larnach get another shot & kind of felt sorry for Larnach to be rushed up to MLB so soon. But he showed me that he was more than ready. He changed his swing & he's really cooking, I wouldn't change a thing. He's become a very dependable hitter. I'm super surprised by his transformation & expect good things from him.

"Rushed up to MLB so soon"??

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

37 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

"Rushed up to MLB so soon"??

 

 

😉 Normal ramping up after extended time on the IL start in the lower level MiLB (which Larnach did) & then work them up through the levels (which Larnach didn't). Because of his problem with breaking balls, I felt that he needed that time. But as I stated before I was pleasantly surprised.