The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Numbers from the Twins Early Season Strikeout

[Theodore Tollefson]

Like last season, strikeouts continue to be a big issue with the Minnesota Twins lineup, but what are the least and most concerning signs from the lineup from their first seven games? 

There’s no question about it, the Twins lineup is striking out more often than anybody, except their opponents, would like. Through seven games Twins hitters have struck out 73 times, and with their rainout against Cleveland on Sunday, they’ll have the most through the fewest games played to start 2024. 

Last season the Twins lineup set the Major League record for strikeouts by an offense with 1,654 across 5,489 at-bats, leading to a 30.1% strikeout rate. Currently, their strikeout rate in 2024 is above this at 31.7% in 230 at-bats, a pace that could lead them to create a new Major League record. 

Not all of these 73 strikeouts have fallen completely on the Twins hitters, most notably, in Saturday’s game against the Cleveland Guardians. Home plate umpire Brennan Miller had a bizarrely wide strike zone running up Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner both on called strike threes clearly outside the strike zone. 

But even with these bad calls, it doesn’t excuse the higher number of strikeouts the Twins have seen over the last two games (13 on Thursday and 15 on Saturday) against Cleveland. What are the worst outcomes of these strikeouts and are there any silver linings for the Twins lineup and their strikeouts only one week in the season? Let’s break down the numbers for each of their 14 hitters in week one.

Starting off with the semi-good news to start the season. Two hitters in the first seven games haven’t struck out once; Royce Lewis and Austin Martin. Lewis, for the obvious reason of exiting Opening Day after two at-bats (but hey, he’s still batting 1.000), and Martin who’s only had three at-bats in his first four MLB games. Martin will strike out at some point, but the limited plate appearances against Brady Singer turned into groundouts. 

The Ugly
Onto the ugly. Three Twins hitters have been striking out at an alarming rate more than the rest of their hitters; Julien, Wallner, and Willi Castro. 

Castro is the team leader in strikeouts with 12 in 28 plate appearances (42.8% strikeout rate). He has an even split in how he is striking out with half the time being swinging and the other half looking. The two pitches most notable giving him trouble are fastballs and sliders, with five coming on fastballs and four on sliders.  

Last season Castro had little trouble against the fastball as he had a .378 batting average in the 110 plate appearances he saw 546 fastballs in. He still struck out 31 times on fastballs in 2023 making for a 28.8% strikeout rate on the pitch. His efforts against sliders in 2023 weren’t as great as the fastball, but he still had a respectable .254 batting average in 78 plate appearances against that pitch. He struck out against sliders just 17 times, making for a 21.8% strikeout rate.

Castro is off to a cold start but he’s still managed to put together a few hits to begin the year. But he and the Twins will be facing their biggest challenge of the season yet with the Dodgers coming into town on Monday. Fortunately, they’ll be facing James Paxton, a pitcher whom Castro has never struck out against and doesn’t have a slider in his arsenal, which could be the perfect lefty for him to face and break out of this rut.

 

Wallner is a different story from Castro altogether. He has the worst strikeout rate on the Twins so far, striking out 50% of the time (8 K’s in 16 AB’s). He’s not just struggling with one or two types of pitches, it’s a bit of everything Wallner is failing to make contact with. Fastball, slider, curveball, you name it, he can’t hit it. 

These types of at-bats were to be expected from Wallner as he had a 31.5% strikeout rate as a rookie in 2023. But even with a limited amount of playing time to start the season, striking out half the time he’s at the plate is a warranted concern. Wallner is unlikely to start against Paxton on Monday, but Tuesday is most likely to have Tyler Glasnow on the mound of the Dodgers. 

Glasnow leads the Dodgers rotation with 15 strikeouts so far and he’s been getting hitters to strikeout on everything from his fastball, slider, and curveball. Pending Monday’s game, Wallner could get the start against the Dodger ace to see how he will continue to hit, if at all, against right-handed pitchers. 

Last amongst the Twins hitters with ugly strikeout results is Julien. Juilen’s worst attribute to start the season was one of the things he was praised for the most as a rookie, his strike zone judgment. But each umpire has their definition of their strike zone, and the majority behind the plate for Julien has had wider ones than he allows for himself.

That’s why seven of his nine strikeouts so far have been looking, and none were more crucial than his strikeout with the bases loaded in the bottom of the second during Thursday’s home opener. The slider Julien went by him was right at the bottom of the strike zone, and per MLB’s ABS, would have been called a strike even if Julien could have challenged the pitch. 

While his strike zone judgment is still a strong skill of his hitting abilities as he has a 34.6% strikeout rate in this slump. Julien will have to widen his own strike zone for the time being, until he gets an umpire with a strike zone as tight as his. Julien is more than a capable hitter when he swings and makes contact, but he’s barely been doing so to start 2024, and he will have to allow himself to become more of a free swinger, even if it makes him uncomfortable for a bit, to break out of this bad stretch. 

The Bad
Six Twins hitters have found themselves in this category to start the 2024 season; Byron Buxton, Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, Manuel Margot, and Kyle Farmer.  

Their strike-out issues are not as alarming as the previous three mentioned, in fact, the only two among this group who have had any strikeouts while looking are Farmer and Margot. 

Margot’s strikeout numbers are more concerning than Farmer’s as he’s stuck out in almost half of his plate appearances (5 K’s in 12 PAs, 41.6% strikeout rate). Margot has been utilized primarily as the Twins' fourth outfielder, getting only one start in the seven games at DH. While his 0 for 5 in his career against Paxton, his career .281 batting average against southpaws, and Wallner’s abysmal struggles may warrant him getting a start in left field to fix his strikeout problem. 

The two pitches Farmer has watched go by him for strike three this year were both fastballs. Like Margot, his plate appearances have been limited with fewer platoon options to start him against lefties. On the flip side, his strikeout rate remains lower compared to his teammates (23% strikeout rate in 13 PAs), and Monday’s game against the Dodgers will provide a prime opportunity for him to break out of what is likely a slow start for his season.

The other four hitters in this category have all had slower starts at the plate to begin the year. But the most encouraging player that is seeing improvement here is Buxton. 

All his eight strikeouts have been swinging is an encouragement to how healthy he is this year. Last season, there were dozens of at-bats where he wouldn’t even swing on strike three with his pain. His strikeout rate of 27.5% is certainly a factor keeping his OPS well below the league average at .656. But as the weather warms up and he keeps himself healthy, Buxton will surely have one of the better seasons we’ve seen from him since 2017. 

The strikeout rates for Santana (26.6% in 30 PAs), Kepler (28.5% in 21 PAs), and Jeffers (22.7% in 22 PAs) are not great, but their early season performances show signs of being slow out the gate more than anything else. The one outlier in this group when it comes to making contact against a certain pitch is Santana, who’s had half his eight strikeouts against sliders. 

As he’s aged, Santana has shown regression in his ability to hit sliders going from a .231 batting average against them in 76 plate appearances in 2021, to a .139 average in 90 plate appearances in 2023. This will likely be the one pitch often used to get him out in pivotal moments, and if it comes late in games, the Twins will have to pinch-hit for him if they cannot find a way to bring his average back above the Mendoza line against sliders.

Nonetheless, Santana, Kepler, and Jeffers are all veteran hitters who have faced slow starts in their careers and will overcome these slow starts, even if they still pile up strikeouts in their at-bats. 

The Good
The bright side overall for the Twins lineup is three hitters whose strikeout rates are no concern at all to start the season; Carlos Correa, Alex Kirilloff, and Christian Vázquez These three have five or fewer strikeouts across the Twins' first seven games and all three have shown signs of improvement from their down year in 2023.

The most noticeable among this group that has improved is Correa. Even in the small sample size of seven games, he leads all of Major League Baseball in on-base percentage at .533. His strikeout rate is one of the lowest on the team, currently sitting at 16.6%. Between his hitting and fielding, the planter fasciitis appears to be completely gone for Correa, and he is becoming the heartbeat in the Twins' lineup keeping the momentum alive for the guys hitting behind him. 

The man typically hitting in front of him has been Kirilloff and he has been the Twins best hitter in the season’s early going. He’s struck out the least amount of times among the Twins who have played each game, only three times in 30 PAs, making for a strikeout rate of just 10%. Kirlloff is the least concerning among the regulars when it comes to his strikeout game. The thing fans have to worry about more is whether he’ll continue his triples hitting streak on Monday against the Dodgers.

Finally, there’s Vázquez, whose playing time has been limited to three starts behind the plate. While he’s only mustered two hits in those games and grounded into a double play with the bases loaded, he’s only struck out once in 11 PAs making for the lowest strikeout rate on the team at 9%. Vázquez will continue an every-other-day starting role at catcher with Jeffers as the month continues on. His strikeouts may continue, but his approach at the plate looks much healthier than it did a year ago. 

What’s next? 
The Twins will be welcoming the Dodgers into Target Field for a three-game series and their pitching staff leads all of MLB in strikeouts with 116. As mentioned earlier, Paxton will have the first start of the series for the Dodgers, but following him are Glasnow, who has 15 in three starts, and Bobby Miller, who has 14 in two starts. 

As they’ve been the last two seasons, the Dodgers will continue to be a challenge to test the Twins' offense early in the season. And there’s no bigger challenge now than to overcome their strikeout issue at the plate against the best strikeout team in baseball. 
 

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[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

On the bright side, against Cleveland, the Twins had plenty of traffic on the base paths and with some timely hitting, they would've blown the Guardians out both games.

But, this isn't an 8 game sample size we're talking about. The ridiculous strikeout numbers aren't new. The common denominator is obvious and until that is addressed, this will remain a feast or famine lineup with a lean towards the latter.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I'm hopeful that the FO and Baldelli see the problem and are trying to address it, albeit with mixed results. The two FA acquisitions are both contact oriented  - Santana struck out 16.8% of his PAs last year and Margot 16.3%. They just called up Miranda and Rocco was quoted saying his bat to ball skills and lower SO rate are important additions to the lineup.  Correa is typically in the low 20s% and Kirilloff is about the same. Kepler was at 21% in his breakout year last year, less than 20% when he couldn't hit. Julien is fixable if he'll just expand his zone 5% on the corners and actually swing at low strikes. The real problem children are Buxton, Jeffers and, of course, Castro and Wallner. Buxton and Jeffers hit enough for power and provide the defense to make up for it, and Castro is a reserve for a reason. Any more than 300 ABs for Castro means we have a problem.  

I think the short term solution is fairly obvious - (1) play Miranda at 3B, not Castro who is a 2-3 day a week UT,  (2) hope Julien snaps out of his funk or play Martin more at 2B, and (3) send Wallner to AAA until he finds a groove. I know #3 will hurt some of the group since he's a local boy and had a great month last September but he didn't hit in the playoffs (41% SO rate), didn't hit in ST (38% SO)and isn't hitting now (53% SO rat ) - his combined SO rate in those 3 time periods is well over 40%. He's been figured out and cannot seem to adjust. You can't have a Sano plus black hole in the lineup. A lot of guys need a AAA re-set as they develop, I think he's one of them. Keirsey is hitting in AAA and has a historical 25% SO rate. 

So, send Wallner down when we need another relief pitcher or now for Keirsey, play Miranda every day and see if he can repeat 2022, limit Castro's time, and hope Julien and Jeffers get it together and soon. I don't see a lot of other options other than a trade and it's too early to get anybody any good.  My other option? Send Larnach, Keirsey, Schobel or any body else that they want not named Lee or Festa, plus Santana (salary) to Miami and get back Arraez. Pipe dream but it would help. 

[Guest]

I wouldn’t care if the Twins struck out 27 times per game. The way I see it, the real problem is that they are not getting enough hits to go along with the strikeouts. Tonight 27 hits and 27 Ks.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

18 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'm hopeful that the FO and Baldelli see the problem and are trying to address it, albeit with mixed results. The two FA acquisitions are both contact oriented  - Santana struck out 16.8% of his PAs last year and Margot 16.3%. They just called up Miranda and Rocco was quoted saying his bat to ball skills and lower SO rate are important additions to the lineup.  Correa is typically in the low 20s% and Kirilloff is about the same. Kepler was at 21% in his breakout year last year, less than 20% when he couldn't hit. Julien is fixable if he'll just expand his zone 5% on the corners and actually swing at low strikes. The real problem children are Buxton, Jeffers and, of course, Castro and Wallner. Buxton and Jeffers hit enough for power and provide the defense to make up for it, and Castro is a reserve for a reason. Any more than 300 ABs for Castro means we have a problem.  

I think the short term solution is fairly obvious - (1) play Miranda at 3B, not Castro who is a 2-3 day a week UT,  (2) hope Julien snaps out of his funk or play Martin more at 2B, and (3) send Wallner to AAA until he finds a groove. I know #3 will hurt some of the group since he's a local boy and had a great month last September but he didn't hit in the playoffs (41% SO rate), didn't hit in ST (38% SO)and isn't hitting now (53% SO rat ) - his combined SO rate in those 3 time periods is well over 40%. He's been figured out and cannot seem to adjust. You can't have a Sano plus black hole in the lineup. A lot of guys need a AAA re-set as they develop, I think he's one of them. Keirsey is hitting in AAA and has a historical 25% SO rate. 

So, send Wallner down when we need another relief pitcher or now for Keirsey, play Miranda every day and see if he can repeat 2022, limit Castro's time, and hope Julien and Jeffers get it together and soon. I don't see a lot of other options other than a trade and it's too early to get anybody any good.  My other option? Send Larnach, Keirsey, Schobel or any body else that they want not named Lee or Festa, plus Santana (salary) to Miami and get back Arraez. Pipe dream but it would help. 

Yeah, Wallner is a problem...

[farmerguychris]

Its hard to watch too often.  Knowing they have runners in scoring position - they try to do too much and end up whiffing?

[jkcarew]

Can the Twins win with a 26% K rate?

Yes.

Can the Twins win with a 1.3% HR rate (which is half the league average)

No.

 

And Buxton’s below league-average results have zero to do with his K rate. He’s always had a ton of swing-and-miss in his game. His 2024 K rate is below his career average. His lackluster 2024 results (to date) are 100% due to the lack of home runs. He is…and always has been…a prime example of a player (of which there are many these days) without much offensive value unless the ball goes over the fence at a very healthy rate.

[MABB1959]

It is a pathetic line-up.  10 of 14 current batters have a batting average under .100

[whitsbrain]

Mercifully, I've only seen a game and a half so far this season.  The strikeouts are out of control.  They just stand there and take strike after strike.  I get that you can't swing at every pitch but the Sano-like guesses at the plate are infuriating.  But to say something positive Correa, Kiriloff, and Buxton have been solid.

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Castro provided a huge spark last year, but holy hell, he's been horrifically bad so far. Struggles to catch up to 90 MPH fast balls up in the zone.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

At the end of the day, if Duran and Lewis return healthy and the Twins avoid a major injury to Correa, Buxton, AK, Lopez, and Ryan, they will win the division. Guardians have a sweet spot in the schedule where they opened at Oakland and draw the AAA White Sox while the Twins are playing the Dodgers. Cleveland's line-up is too light for them once the schedule evens out. Detroit's not very good. The Royals are a mess. And the White Sox should be contracted. Twins can win the division with 82-87 wins. But this type of approach at the plate will get them obliterated in October. And really, I don't think the Pohlads will care. They hang division banners with the same affection as the Yankees and Dodgers hang World Series banners. Is what it is.

[Battle ur tail off]

Well when you let go or trade most of your contact and OBP guys, this is bound to happen. Twins seem to be happy to swing for the fences at bat, after at bat. Not certain why there can't be some kind of change in approach here? Awful frustrating. 

 

Hopefully, the hits and HRs start to come. Because if you are striking out that much, you have to couple that with lots of extra base hits, etc. Being bad at both won't work and probably won't happen for too much longer. Season starting slump.... Ugg....

[Doctor Gast]

Great presentation Theo! The league has got the Twins number & the Twins doubled down. If the Twins abandon their long-time-hitting approach, we'll be better off in the long run. IMO it'll take some time for those most affected players. 

[Eris]

I thought strikeouts didn’t matter. Hmm! I think over the course of the season that is probably true but for individual game situations it likely is not true. 
 

We essentially have the same team as last year +/- a few players.  Why are we expecting a different outcome. Wallner’s Ks are bad but so were Gallo’s. 

[Guest]

If I remember correctly, last year the Twins excelled at getting walks when the count was full. Wasn't there talk from analysts, players, and coaches at that time how pitchers were likely to throw a ball. If I remember this right then maybe they have somehow conditioned themselves to watch strike three now. Does anybody else recall this?

[Jocko87]

There are a ton of bad swing/take decisions happening right now and something like that is the real problem. The strikeouts are just an indicator.

[DocBauer]

Still only talking 9 games, a little over a week, in a marathon 162 game schedule 

The bad news is ugly K numbers and lack of any clutch hits with runners in scoring position. 

The good news is there have been a lot of baserunners and a lineup that is pretty talented, despite the ugly early results.

Right now, I'm not overly concerned about Julien or Wallner because of their basic approach. If they were swinging wildly instead of getting strikes called that are borderline or not strikes at all I'd be more concerned. They are young, talented, and have a solid approach at the plate. But I think everyone expected some growing pains and adjustments. I think Julien in particular, perhaps Wallner, may have to get a little more "uncomfortable"...as was previously stated...and get a little more aggressive in their approach. It's great to have a good eye and have that patient approach. But at some point, if the umps...regardless of what you think we've been seeing from the umpires...are going to call borderline pitches or bad pitches, you're probably going to have to adjust a little bit. For now at least. I mean, seriously, the approach isn't bad. And maybe the next few games/series the umpiring will be better and they'll get those borderline and bad calls reversed and going their way. But right now, you can't bank on that.

I'm not ready for a Wallner reset this early in the season, especially with Kepler injured now. But I can see it potentially happening.

In the first half of 2023, despite poor clutch hitting and a vast number of K's, the Twins "bunched" runs together enough to still be on the upper half of total runs. It was the inconsistent production that was the issue. In the second half, I believe they finished 2nd only to Houston in run production. Well, healthy at some point in the near future, most of those players are on the team NOW. Gallo and Taylor, amongst the highest of K % last year, are no longer on the team. Buxton and Correa and Kirilloff are healthy and looking good so far. 

The K's and lack of clutch hitting are UGLY. And there's no doubt it creates flashbacks to the first half of 2023. But NINE games...a week and a half with one rainout...is not panic time at this point, no matter how ugly things have looked. I understand the old adage that you can't win or lose a season in April, and all games count in the end. But a couple weeks of struggles to begin the season just don't define how the season is going to ultimately play out. 

The sky is NOT falling. While I have moments of being a hyper fan here and there, LOL, and a good start to the season is always preferred, I'm just not going to get worked up until May gets here. 

[mrcharlie]

I am not so concerned about the swing and misses for strike three.  To let the umpiring decide the AB is hard to stomach. 

The hitting coach has a job to do here.