Will the Twins Give Charlee Soto the Marco Raya Treatment?

[Cody Christie]

When it comes to developing starting pitchers, teams have to walk a fine line, minimizing injury risk through workload management while adequately preparing their charges for full-season starting duties in MLB. The Twins have shown extreme caution with some recent top prospects. Will that continue?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Pitching development is critical for any organization attempting to field a consistent contender. The Twins have done an excellent job of identifying late-round college arms and developing them in the team’s farm system. However, those types of pitchers can have limited upside, so it is vital to use higher draft picks to find pitchers who can develop into playoff-caliber starters. High school pitchers can fit this category, but they come with plenty of risk because of how long it takes to develop them, and the fact that injury risk doesn't wait around until a pitcher is done developing before asserting itself. Let’s look at how the Twins have handled the workload of one recent high-school draft pick and predict whether the same plan will be used with a 2023 top pick. 

The Twins drafted Marco Raya in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft from a Texas high school. Twins Daily ranks him as the organization’s top pitching prospect, one spot ahead of David Festa. Raya has also garnered national attention, with Baseball Prospectus ranking him 53rd on their Top 101 list entering the 2023 season. Minnesota took Charlee Soto with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of high school in Florida. Such picks come with high ceilings, but a high percentage of arms flame out before the big leagues. 

Minnesota’s current front office regime has avoided using high draft picks on high school pitchers. Before Soto, Chase Petty was the lone exception, and the Twins quickly traded him to the Reds for Sonny Gray. The Twins used first-round picks in back-to-back years to select José Berríos (2012) and Kohl Stewart (2013). Berríos and Stewart’s careers have played out in very different ways, with the former being one of the AL’s best starting pitchers over the last decade and the latter never establishing himself at the big-league level. There are no guarantees with high school pitchers, and that’s one of the reasons the Twins have been cautious about Raya’s usage. 

After dealing with a shoulder strain during the 2021 season, Raya finally made his professional debut in 2021. Minnesota took a unique approach, having him move quickly up the organizational ladder but limiting his innings. Over the last two years, he has combined for 127 2/3 innings, though he reached Double-A in 2023. He’s been over three years younger than the average age of the competition at each level and was over 4.5 years younger in Wichita. Raya didn’t pitch more than four innings in any outing last year. The Twins are exercising extraordinary caution with him because of his previous injury history and small stature. However, he must prove he can handle a full workload as a starter in 2024.

The Twins assigned Soto to Fort Myers to begin the year, where he is the youngest player on the roster by two months. The Mighty Mussels start their season this weekend, allowing Soto to make his professional debut and prove he can be a high-school pitcher who finds long-term success. Whether that comes rapidly or only over a long developmental arc depends on his health, but also on the Twins' appetite for risk where he's concerned.

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How careful will the Twins be with Soto this season? How many innings will he pitch? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[bean5302]

If Soto is pitching well, I'd hope not. It'd be grounds for termination considering Falvey's already poor success developing pitching.

Raya seemed to be on about a 50 max pitch count last year after going up to 70-80 pitches in 2022. I don't even view Raya as a starter anymore after only going 62 innings despite being healthy.

[Peter]

When will Soto be with twins? Have feeling he’s going to be of of twins all time great!

[Doctor Gast]

Great job, Cody! I have stated before that I believe that they'll take Soto slow, Because like you said that HS arms are high risk, due to being pushed too fast and too hard, Their arms development can't keep up with the heavy pitching development load. Taking them slow IMO helps to limit the risk. 

Because Soto is bigger, his arm probably can take more than Raya but will be less than what some would like.

[TwinsDr2021]

To be honest I don't understand at all what they are doing with pitchers, unless the plan is to bring them along so slowly they won't be able to debut until age 24 or later so they never have to give them a contract. Because they certainly aren't prepping them to be starters to go deep into games.

Festa ins 22 started 18 (pitched in 21) and pitched 103.66 innings, than last year started 19 (pitched in 21) and his innings dropped down to 92.33, and the first game of the year he goes 3 innings.

Raya started 17 games(pitched in 19) and pitched 65 innings, and last year started 22 games and with 62.33 innings, My math says that is less than 3 innings.

That is different than what they have done with Winder, Ober and Varland and they have basically been 5 innings starters in the majors, not sure how Festa and Raya could be expected to even do that anytime soon. (the even let Graterol pitch more)

With that said I am cheering for both to become major league stars!

 

 

[Hrbeks Divot]

Completely different body types could play into this too. Soto has a big frame that could lend itself to a more regular starter’s workload. I don’t mind using a little caution with the price of pitching but Raya has been a little overboard. I’d be satisfied with Soto getting his feet wet with four inning outings early in the season and ramping up to five to six by the end of his first year.

[bean5302]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

To be honest I don't understand at all what they are doing with pitchers, unless the plan is to bring them along so slowly they won't be able to debut until age 24 or later so they never have to give them a contract. Because they certainly aren't prepping them to be starters to go deep into games.

Festa ins 22 started 18 (pitched in 21) and pitched 103.66 innings, than last year started 19 (pitched in 21) and his innings dropped down to 92.33, and the first game of the year he goes 3 innings.

Raya started 17 games(pitched in 19) and pitched 65 innings, and last year started 22 games and with 62.33 innings, My math says that is less than 3 innings.

That is different than what they have done with Winder, Ober and Varland and they have basically been 5 innings starters in the majors, not sure how Festa and Raya could be expected to even do that anytime soon. (the even let Graterol pitch more)

With that said I am cheering for both to become major league stars!

 

 

I don't think the Twins view Raya as a conventional starter at this point. Limiting him to 50 pitches per start last year despite Raya being healthy, and despite allowing him to go to 70-80 pitches the year prior (2022) is clear as day to me on projection.

It's pretty common to see college guys throwing 100 innings in a season. That's about where I'd like to see Soto, if he's healthy.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

To be honest I don't understand at all what they are doing with pitchers, unless the plan is to bring them along so slowly they won't be able to debut until age 24 or later so they never have to give them a contract. Because they certainly aren't prepping them to be starters to go deep into games.

Festa ins 22 started 18 (pitched in 21) and pitched 103.66 innings, than last year started 19 (pitched in 21) and his innings dropped down to 92.33, and the first game of the year he goes 3 innings.

Raya started 17 games(pitched in 19) and pitched 65 innings, and last year started 22 games and with 62.33 innings, My math says that is less than 3 innings.

That is different than what they have done with Winder, Ober and Varland and they have basically been 5 innings starters in the majors, not sure how Festa and Raya could be expected to even do that anytime soon. (the even let Graterol pitch more)

With that said I am cheering for both to become major league stars!

In other news, Marlins announced today that Eury Perez is getting TJ surgery. 

[Dman]

Yeah I think they start him slow.  I was actually surprised they are starting him at Fort Meyers.  I thought they would work more on developing pitches and pitch him in the short season FCL.  That tells me they must believe he can handle a fair number of innings this year.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him used out of the pen given the number of starters they have at Low A.  

He is still just 18 years old.  I would be surprised if he got much more than 60 innings this year.  At any rate the first is more about just getting experience for a guy this young so inning's don't concern me that much.  Let's just hope his arm stays healthy and he develops a three pitch mix.

[jkcarew]

I don’t like ‘one size fits all’ approach. Each guy is unique and Soto sure has a different frame than Raya.

Also, I’m not sure anyone knows exactly what makes one guy break down, while another doesn’t. The heavily cautious approach  certainly doesn’t guarantee nothing goes bump in the night. At some point, they have to handle the load or it’s moot.

Still, he’s 19...you’re gonna start slow. I’m just hoping they keep an open mind and let things evolve rapidly if, in fact, the responses indicate that he’s capable.

[2wins87]

 

18 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

I don’t like ‘one size fits all’ approach. Each guy is unique and Soto sure has a different frame than Raya.

Also, I’m not sure anyone knows exactly what makes one guy break down, while another doesn’t. The heavily cautious approach  certainly doesn’t guarantee nothing goes bump in the night. At some point, they have to handle the load or it’s moot.

Still, he’s 19...you’re gonna start slow. I’m just hoping they keep an open mind and let things evolve rapidly if, in fact, the responses indicate that he’s capable.

Yes, I don't think they should, or will, have the same approach for every top starter prospect.

I don't think they'll push his volume too hard for a while, but look at Soto's build at 18 vs Raya's at 21.  Festa is also still very thin.  The fact that the two current top pitching prospects both have serious durability concerns based mostly on build has colored perceptions a bit much on how cautious they are in general.

There is a huge injury risk associated with every arm.  They probably do want to save bullets in the minors, so to speak, but if he proves durable I don't think they'll be limiting him to 50 pitch, 3 inning outings for long.

[TwinsDr2021]

19 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

In other news, Marlins announced today that Eury Perez is getting TJ surgery. 

Must be because of the 78 innings when he was 18, and 77 in at age 19, and 128 age 20

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

So let me get this straight . . .  based off of his first true game experience, you are comparing him to a pitcher that has had significant injuries  on how the Twins will handle Soto even though they have not used that same treatment with any other pitcher???    

They are going to build him up.  Looks like he was dang impressive in his first outing against players his level.  That looks very, very promising.   Lets see how the summer goes, but I am very optimistic on his potential. A #1 or #2 pitcher this system needs.  He has a build and motion that should be able to handle the stress of going 5,6 or 7 innings a game.  Just need to continue to develop his command and effectiveness of secondary pitches.  

[DocBauer]

First of all, it's really not uncommon for a milb starter to only go 4 IP...give or take...the first time or two on the mound. It's not a mandate, it's just normal to see as they're building up, and at times, it's about seeing other arms as well.

We can talk about the number if IP and the number of pitches Raya has thrown on a per game basis and say he's been held back, bit he's also been promoted very aggressively. This means his stuff plays, they want to challenge him, but they want to protect a young arm that basically didn't pitch for 2yrs plus.

Remember, most all baseball, college or HS, wad limited or eliminated in 2020. (Can't recall in Raya's case from memory). Regardless, he didn't throw after being drafted. Nobody did. Then he had a shoulder strain in 2021 so they rehabbed and he threw on the side. 

Soto is much larger, probably stronger, at the same relative age when drafted. And he still needs to work on mechanics not only for control, but to make sure he doesn't hurt himself at 18yo and probably still growing in to that large frame. But he's not sitting for 2yrs. So while the Twins aren't going to throw the door open and toss him 5-7 IP every game and plan on 140 IP plus, he's at least healthy and going to pitch. So there's a big difference between he and Raya in that regard.

Will they still monitor pitch count and IP? I'm sure they will. But all teams with a rookie 18yo arm? With any kind of success, he'll probably grow from 3-4 innings to 4-6 innings after a few starts. But I also expect Raya's pitch count and IP to go up this season as well. 

So no, I don't think they are going to give Sota a "Marco Raya" treatment. They're going to give Soto his own treatment. Like they would any other HS rookie arm.

[Old fox]

It sounds like TD has several candidates to be GM prospects for the big clubs. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

To be honest I don't understand at all what they are doing with pitchers, unless the plan is to bring them along so slowly they won't be able to debut until age 24 or later so they never have to give them a contract. Because they certainly aren't prepping them to be starters to go deep into games.

Festa ins 22 started 18 (pitched in 21) and pitched 103.66 innings, than last year started 19 (pitched in 21) and his innings dropped down to 92.33, and the first game of the year he goes 3 innings.

Raya started 17 games(pitched in 19) and pitched 65 innings, and last year started 22 games and with 62.33 innings, My math says that is less than 3 innings.

That is different than what they have done with Winder, Ober and Varland and they have basically been 5 innings starters in the majors, not sure how Festa and Raya could be expected to even do that anytime soon. (the even let Graterol pitch more)

With that said I am cheering for both to become major league stars!

 

 

To contrast - Varland was a full grown man after attending college. Ober & Winder have both had multiple physical issues. Don’t necessarily think their innings lead to Ober & Winder’s problems but that may be why the organization is protecting these younger arms? Graeterol too has had arm issues.

Raya - Soto aren’t fully grown ………no problem letting them slowly develop and have success at each level for an entire year. They need to mature - they don’t need to be Doc Gooden. There’s no need to try and push pitchers into the MLB grinder prior to being 23-24 years old. Right now they have Ryan - Ober - SWR - Lopez - Festa - Varland are all around, with a couple other guys in the organization, through 2026……….no big rush for these young guys.

Festa will be up at some point for 6-12 starts this year. SWR will also see 6-12 starts. Things are progressing.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

To contrast - Varland was a full grown man after attending college. Ober & Winder have both had multiple physical issues. Don’t necessarily think their innings lead to Ober & Winder’s problems but that may be why the organization is protecting these younger arms? Graeterol too has had arm issues.

Raya - Soto aren’t fully grown ………no problem letting them slowly develop and have success at each level for an entire year. They need to mature - they don’t need to be Doc Gooden. There’s no need to try and push pitchers into the MLB grinder prior to being 23-24 years old. Right now they have Ryan - Ober - SWR - Lopez - Festa - Varland are all around, with a couple other guys in the organization, through 2026……….no big rush for these young guys.

Festa will be up at some point for 6-12 starts this year. SWR will also see 6-12 starts. Things are progressing.

Many young pitchers have arm issues. It's commonplace these days and it cannot be avoided by giving them artificially low pitch counts and innings limits. The best case scenario is kicking the can down the line a year for their imminent UCL tear. The workload will eventually have to build up, and if injury is going to happen, it's going to happen. The single greatest risk factor for UCL tears is increased velocity. This is a known factor at this point. If teams want to avoid arm injuries, they can stop getting tunnel vision on velocity, but velocity produces results so I suspect that's not going to happen, and I suspect if a team did decide to be so magnanimous, the fans would quickly backlash at having 5 very healthy AAAA 87mph fastball pitchers in the rotation.

How about we look at the Guardians as an example? They're considered pitching development gurus far, far superior to what the Twins front office has produced.
2015 - a18 Brady Aiken. UCL tear noted post-draft. Pitched 46 innings a19. Pitched 132 innings a20.
2015 - a17 Triston McKenzie. 12 innings (a17 post draft). 83 innings (a18). 143 innings (a19).
2016 - a21 Aaron Civale. 152 innings NCAA/MiLB (a21). 163 innings (a22)
2018 - a18 Ethan Hankins. 3 innings (a18 post draft). 60 innings (a19), 2020 no season. 0.0 IP. UCL tear immediate (a21) 
2019 - a18 Daniel Espino. 24 innings (a18 post draft). 2020 no season. 92 innings (a20).
2019 - a21 5th rd Hunter Gaddis. 75 innings (a19 NCAA). 119 innings (a20 NCAA). 124 innings (a21 NCAA/MiLB)
2020 - a22 Tanner Burns. 87 innings (a19 NCAA). 80 innings (a20 NCAA). 22 innings (2020 NCAA). 76 innings (a22)
2020 - a21 Logan Allen. 74 innings (a19 NCAA). 99 innings (a20 NCAA/Smr). 26 innings (2020 NCAA). 111 innings (a22)
2021 - a21 Gavin Williams  NCAA 81 innings (a21). 115 innings (a22)
2022 - a21 5th rd Tanner Bibee. 56 innings SP/RP (a19 NCAA). 113 innings (a20 NCAA/Smr). 30 innings (2020 NCAA), 90 innings (a22 NCAA). 133 innings (a23).

Just some of the high rounders the Guardians have drafted in recent years. The biggest injury was to the guy they protected the most having him throw the fewest innings (Ethan Hankins). NCAA teams often have their a18-a19 pitchers at 80+ innings, even if they're RP/SP and don't have a rotation spot right out of HS. Sometimes high profile HS commits even hit 100 innings in their first college year.

If there was some sort of recipe (pitch count, innings limits, etc.) to prevent UCL tears and losing 18 months of development time for multi-million dollar signing bonus, high profile draft picks, it would be published everywhere for all to see by now. It would absolutely be a set in stone practice in MLB because the MLBPA would demand it.
 

[Fatbat]

This isn’t Rice University. Keep the new toys bright and shiney with plenty of future games to win.  
these kids might only pitch 3-4 innings per game but they are still throwing on off days and building up their core in conditioning programs.  MiLB isn’t the place to throw 150+ innings, its a place to develop the skills to win games in the show. 
Soto will have a program that works for him. Raya obviously is benefiting from his program since he isnt on the shelf. He will debut WELL before he is 24yo.  
with 2 picks in the top 32ish this summer, I hope they go after another HS SP prospect and a hotshot catcher that can team up with Jeffers 3 years from now. 

[Parfigliano]

15 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

To contrast - Varland was a full grown man after attending college. Ober & Winder have both had multiple physical issues. Don’t necessarily think their innings lead to Ober & Winder’s problems but that may be why the organization is protecting these younger arms? Graeterol too has had arm issues.

Raya - Soto aren’t fully grown ………no problem letting them slowly develop and have success at each level for an entire year. They need to mature - they don’t need to be Doc Gooden. There’s no need to try and push pitchers into the MLB grinder prior to being 23-24 years old. Right now they have Ryan - Ober - SWR - Lopez - Festa - Varland are all around, with a couple other guys in the organization, through 2026……….no big rush for these young guys.

Festa will be up at some point for 6-12 starts this year. SWR will also see 6-12 starts. Things are progressing.

I think we have to first see those MLB starts to judge whether things are progressing.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Many young pitchers have arm issues. It's commonplace these days and it cannot be avoided by giving them artificially low pitch counts and innings limits. The best case scenario is kicking the can down the line a year for their imminent UCL tear. The workload will eventually have to build up, and if injury is going to happen, it's going to happen. The single greatest risk factor for UCL tears is increased velocity. This is a known factor at this point. If teams want to avoid arm injuries, they can stop getting tunnel vision on velocity, but velocity produces results so I suspect that's not going to happen, and I suspect if a team did decide to be so magnanimous, the fans would quickly backlash at having 5 very healthy AAAA 87mph fastball pitchers in the rotation.

How about we look at the Guardians as an example? They're considered pitching development gurus far, far superior to what the Twins front office has produced.
2015 - a18 Brady Aiken. UCL tear noted post-draft. Pitched 46 innings a19. Pitched 132 innings a20.
2015 - a17 Triston McKenzie. 12 innings (a17 post draft). 83 innings (a18). 143 innings (a19).
2016 - a21 Aaron Civale. 152 innings NCAA/MiLB (a21). 163 innings (a22)
2018 - a18 Ethan Hankins. 3 innings (a18 post draft). 60 innings (a19), 2020 no season. 0.0 IP. UCL tear immediate (a21) 
2019 - a18 Daniel Espino. 24 innings (a18 post draft). 2020 no season. 92 innings (a20).
2019 - a21 5th rd Hunter Gaddis. 75 innings (a19 NCAA). 119 innings (a20 NCAA). 124 innings (a21 NCAA/MiLB)
2020 - a22 Tanner Burns. 87 innings (a19 NCAA). 80 innings (a20 NCAA). 22 innings (2020 NCAA). 76 innings (a22)
2020 - a21 Logan Allen. 74 innings (a19 NCAA). 99 innings (a20 NCAA/Smr). 26 innings (2020 NCAA). 111 innings (a22)
2021 - a21 Gavin Williams  NCAA 81 innings (a21). 115 innings (a22)
2022 - a21 5th rd Tanner Bibee. 56 innings SP/RP (a19 NCAA). 113 innings (a20 NCAA/Smr). 30 innings (2020 NCAA), 90 innings (a22 NCAA). 133 innings (a23).

Just some of the high rounders the Guardians have drafted in recent years. The biggest injury was to the guy they protected the most having him throw the fewest innings (Ethan Hankins). NCAA teams often have their a18-a19 pitchers at 80+ innings, even if they're RP/SP and don't have a rotation spot right out of HS. Sometimes high profile HS commits even hit 100 innings in their first college year.

If there was some sort of recipe (pitch count, innings limits, etc.) to prevent UCL tears and losing 18 months of development time for multi-million dollar signing bonus, high profile draft picks, it would be published everywhere for all to see by now. It would absolutely be a set in stone practice in MLB because the MLBPA would demand it.
 

I agree with your first paragraph regarding velocity having become king! UCL injuries seem commonplace……….Cleveland stuff was TMI for me this morning…….my point, specific to these two guys in the Twins organization, not their overall approach with arms in the organization, is these guys are young and not needed any time soon. Why not let them get physically stronger for another year or two before pushing their innings total - don’t see the harm? 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

18 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Must be because of the 78 innings when he was 18, and 77 in at age 19, and 128 age 20

Does pitching more increase stress on the elbow, or does pitching less increase stress on the elbow? Hmmm, truly a quandary.

[DJL44]

Innings in games are not the majority of pitches they will throw during a year. Most pitches are thrown in practice. Fatigue does lead to bad mechanics which leads to arm injuries.

I think we will continue to see pitchers get injured because velocity gets batters out. A ligament replacement is almost a rite of passage for a major league pitcher.

[bean5302]

19 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Does pitching more increase stress on the elbow, or does pitching less increase stress on the elbow? Hmmm, truly a quandary.

It seems like you're implying we should eliminate all pitching from the game to prevent all UCL injuries. I'm sure we have enough pitch machines where we could make it happen. I'm not for it though. I'd like to keep pitchers in the game. There is no safe workload. UCL tears are the result of an acute overstress. A single pitch causes a UCL tear. Not the 40th pitch or the 190th pitch. Just takes one.

No meta analysis has found strong correlations with specific innings limits or pitch counts. Relievers often have UCL injuries and need TJ, yet they often don't pitch more than 60 innings a year or 30 pitches in a game.

Pitchers are all different. Builds, genetics, how they wind up and deliver pitches, types of pitches, how hard they throw, how quickly they recover. It differs by pitcher. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

52 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It seems like you're implying we should eliminate all pitching from the game to prevent all UCL injuries. I'm sure we have enough pitch machines where we could make it happen. I'm not for it though. I'd like to keep pitchers in the game. There is no safe workload. UCL tears are the result of an acute overstress. A single pitch causes a UCL tear. Not the 40th pitch or the 190th pitch. Just takes one.

No meta analysis has found strong correlations with specific innings limits or pitch counts. Relievers often have UCL injuries and need TJ, yet they often don't pitch more than 60 innings a year or 30 pitches in a game.

Pitchers are all different. Builds, genetics, how they wind up and deliver pitches, types of pitches, how hard they throw, how quickly they recover. It differs by pitcher. 

I'm going to have to find my jump to conclusions mat to figure out how you got there.

23 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If Soto is pitching well, I'd hope not. It'd be grounds for termination considering Falvey's already poor success developing pitching.

Raya seemed to be on about a 50 max pitch count last year after going up to 70-80 pitches in 2022. I don't even view Raya as a starter anymore after only going 62 innings despite being healthy.

Huh, I wonder if the Twins have any specific information on the builds/biomechanics of these two pitchers in their org?