Evaluating Chris Paddack's 2024 Debut Start and Twins' Rotation Outlook

[Cody Pirkl]

Chris Paddack made his 2024 debut on Wednesday, in an eventual Twins win. Although this was his first start of the season, it’s worth exploring some trends and how they may inform his future in the rotation.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports

Chris Paddack was far from sharp in his first big-league start since undergoing a second Tommy John surgery in 2022. In four innings, he allowed six hits and walked two. His two earned runs were a testament to how well he navigated the trouble he was constantly in and gave the Twins a chance to win, though. Aside from his final line, there were a few critical observations for the rest of Paddack’s 2024 season.

Paddack averaged 94.3 mph on the fastball on Wednesday, up significantly from the 93 we saw in his brief 2022 debut with the Twins. Paddack was a fire-breathing reliever in his return to the mound in 2023, averaging 95.5 mph. Lower velocity was expected as he stretched back out, but the question was whether he could find the velocity he had before his second Tommy John. So far, so good, as Wednesday’s number is right in line with some of the best seasons of Paddack’s career.

Also encouraging was Paddack’s ability to reach back for more when he needed it. He topped out at 96.1 on the fastball and found a few extra ticks whenever he was in trouble. It seems the raw stuff should be all the way back; it’s just a matter of how well he can sustain it over the course of the season.

Aside from Paddack’s raw stuff, how he deployed it was also interesting. When the Twins acquired Paddack, their confidence in his ability to add a slider to his repertoire was a big topic. While he barely had a chance to throw it in 2022 before he got injured, it looked like an effective pitch. This spring, it was his major focus.

On Wednesday, the slider was essentially a show-me pitch. He threw it just six times and didn’t generate any whiffs on it. Instead, he leaned on his fastball and changeup mix, with the occasional curveball--just as he did with the Padres before the trade. It was an effective formula at times, but it limited his ceiling.

Paddack’s innings will likely be capped this season, so getting quality when he’s on the mound will be important. As a right-handed pitcher who’s held lefties to a .688 OPS in his career, getting righties out is the obvious way for him to take the next step. It’s likely what the Twins had in mind when they acquired him, and hopefully, the plan is to see that slider usage increase to neutralize same-handed hitters.

Paddack’s first start of the season was similar to Louie Varland’s. He slightly missed his spots and racked up a high pitch count, often getting outs only once the string was all the way out. As a name on the relatively short list of pitchers to return from two Tommy John surgeries, Paddack showed flashes to be excited about. While rocky, Paddack’s first start of 2024 can be considered a success. The question now is where he goes from here. Perhaps his control and command can be as pinpoint as they were prior to his barrage of health-related setbacks.

The Twins could improve his slider and make it a legitimate weapon. Either of these developments would be massive. Where does Paddack go from here?

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[Karbo]

I've got to see at least 3 starts before making any kind of judgements on any pitcher. Paddack admitted he was over amped to start this game coming back from surgery. I think he'll be fine, but lets just wait a few starts to know.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Paddack / Varland - Only concern with the former is health and with Varland, keeping the ball in the park.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

For a first start after all of that time, I have no complaints.  Hopefully he will tidy things up a little over the course of a few more starts and become more effective and consistent.  This start looked like a pretty typical 4/5 starter start, and he is our 4th or 5th starter.  

[Ricky Vaughn]

I just don't think one start tells us much of anything. Good or bad, look at the past and the Twins have had players stink up the place in their first start and ones who looked like Walter Johnson in their first start, and neither was indicative of their talent level.

[jmlease1]

I'm happy to see the velocity staying up, and I've always liked his changeup. For me the key is going to be whether they've unlocked the slider/cutter as an impactful 3rd pitch, especially against righties. I think it's going to need to be more than a "show-me" pitch, so we'll see where this lands. The first start wasn't a disaster. I will be interested to see where he is at the end of the month, what the velocity and pitch mix looks like, and how deep he's able to get into games. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Way to early to make a judgement here,  but I am still pessimistic about SP4 and SP5. Ober's first start didn't exactly garner trust either...

It is going to be a long ugly year if I am not proven wrong.  

[bean5302]

10 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Way to early to make a judgement here,  but I am still pessimistic about SP4 and SP5. Ober's first start didn't exactly garner trust either...

It is going to be a long ugly year if I am not proven wrong.  

I'm pessimistic about SP2 and SP3 living up to the 3.40-3.80s in ERAs I expect of their peers. That said, taking a look at pitcher results from last year suggests I might be expecting a little too much.
SP1 (1-30) = 2.25-3.46
SP2 (31-60) = 3.47-3.87
SP3 (61-90) = 3.91-4.44
SP4 (91-120) = 4.45-5.06
SP5 (121-141) = 5.09-7.40

Wonder if we're headed back into the steroid era for run production.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm pessimistic about SP2 and SP3 living up to the 3.40-3.80s in ERAs I expect of their peers. That said, taking a look at pitcher results from last year suggests I might be expecting a little too much.
SP1 (1-30) = 2.25-3.46
SP2 (31-60) = 3.47-3.87
SP3 (61-90) = 3.91-4.44
SP4 (91-120) = 4.45-5.06
SP5 (121-141) = 5.09-7.40

Wonder if we're headed back into the steroid era for run production.

Any idea on the rankings for the top 10 teams in MLB last year?  I would bet the avg ERA for those top 10 teams by SP slot is considerably better for SP4 and SP5.  Look at the Twins SP ERAs last year that got them all of 87 wins:
3.66  Lopez
2.79  Gray
4.51  Ryan
3.43  Ober
4.23  Maeda

No Gray, no Maeda... If The Twins don't get 4.50 ERA or better from SP4 and SP5, this team will not even finish .500.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Any idea on the rankings for the top 10 teams in MLB last year?  I would bet the avg ERA for those top 10 teams by SP slot is considerably better for SP4 and SP5.  Look at the Twins SP ERAs last year that got them all of 87 wins:
3.66  Lopez
2.79  Gray
4.51  Ryan
3.43  Ober
4.23  Maeda

No Gray, no Maeda... If The Twins don't get 4.50 ERA or better from SP4 and SP5, this team will not even finish .500.

Playoff teams. 90+ innings. Mean average leaders in ERA. Twins were Gray, Ober, Lopez for reference.
SP1 - 3.13
SP2 - 3.56
SP3 - 3.87
SP4 - 4.08
SP5 - 4.40

[Shaitan]

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but isn't the slider harder on the elbow? If so, I wouldn't expect them to lean into it heavily for a SP after TJ surgery.

[mrtwinsfan]

Paddock ?  need to see a few more starts, my take is that every time thru the Rotation we will need at least 3  good quality starts , And i dont care who , its gonna be a long year ,  3 out of 5  each  time thru would be great and injury free of course !!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Playoff teams. 90+ innings. Mean average leaders in ERA. Twins were Gray, Ober, Lopez for reference.
SP1 - 3.13
SP2 - 3.56
SP3 - 3.87
SP4 - 4.08
SP5 - 4.40

Fantastic feedback.  Perspective on the true status of the Twins rotation and their playoff aspirations.  I would also bet that that the teams with higher collective ERAs in this group had very strong offensive play, which the Twins do not have...

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Shaitan said:

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but isn't the slider harder on the elbow? If so, I wouldn't expect them to lean into it heavily for a SP after TJ surgery.

Fastball is hard on the elbow. Velocity has the biggest impact.

Curveball is the most stressful per mph, but since it's thrown slower, the overall stress is lower.

[mnfireman]

Tommy John started 31 games, threw 207 innings with an ERA of 3.09 the year after his surgery (which is now named after him), that should be the bar for success...

[bean5302]

21 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Tommy John started 31 games, threw 207 innings with an ERA of 3.09 the year after his surgery (which is now named after him), that should be the bar for success...

Tommy John had surgery in September, 1974. He didn't pitch in 1975, but did return 18 months after in April, 1976. John pitched 207 innings when the league leader pitched 315 that year and the 10th highest was 279 innings.

So pro-rating things. 18 months down, then 142 innings pitched.