Evaluating Chris Paddack's 2024 Debut Start and Twins' Rotation Outlook

Chris Paddack was far from sharp in his first big-league start since undergoing a second Tommy John surgery in 2022. In four innings, he allowed six hits and walked two. His two earned runs were a testament to how well he navigated the trouble he was constantly in and gave the Twins a chance to win, though. Aside from his final line, there were a few critical observations for the rest of Paddack’s 2024 season.

Paddack averaged 94.3 mph on the fastball on Wednesday, up significantly from the 93 we saw in his brief 2022 debut with the Twins. Paddack was a fire-breathing reliever in his return to the mound in 2023, averaging 95.5 mph. Lower velocity was expected as he stretched back out, but the question was whether he could find the velocity he had before his second Tommy John. So far, so good, as Wednesday’s number is right in line with some of the best seasons of Paddack’s career.

Also encouraging was Paddack’s ability to reach back for more when he needed it. He topped out at 96.1 on the fastball and found a few extra ticks whenever he was in trouble. It seems the raw stuff should be all the way back; it’s just a matter of how well he can sustain it over the course of the season.

Aside from Paddack’s raw stuff, how he deployed it was also interesting. When the Twins acquired Paddack, their confidence in his ability to add a slider to his repertoire was a big topic. While he barely had a chance to throw it in 2022 before he got injured, it looked like an effective pitch. This spring, it was his major focus.

On Wednesday, the slider was essentially a show-me pitch. He threw it just six times and didn’t generate any whiffs on it. Instead, he leaned on his fastball and changeup mix, with the occasional curveball--just as he did with the Padres before the trade. It was an effective formula at times, but it limited his ceiling.

Paddack’s innings will likely be capped this season, so getting quality when he’s on the mound will be important. As a right-handed pitcher who’s held lefties to a .688 OPS in his career, getting righties out is the obvious way for him to take the next step. It’s likely what the Twins had in mind when they acquired him, and hopefully, the plan is to see that slider usage increase to neutralize same-handed hitters.

Paddack’s first start of the season was similar to Louie Varland’s. He slightly missed his spots and racked up a high pitch count, often getting outs only once the string was all the way out. As a name on the relatively short list of pitchers to return from two Tommy John surgeries, Paddack showed flashes to be excited about. While rocky, Paddack’s first start of 2024 can be considered a success. The question now is where he goes from here. Perhaps his control and command can be as pinpoint as they were prior to his barrage of health-related setbacks.

The Twins could improve his slider and make it a legitimate weapon. Either of these developments would be massive. Where does Paddack go from here?